Astros Preview 2003

A Look at the 2003 Houston Astros

Starting Pitching

The Astros return two studs in Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, a solid 1-2 punch. Beyond that it gets a bit shaky.

Former standout Shane Reynolds seems to be past his prime and is coming off of season ending back surgrery last June. Houston will hope he can return to his form of ’98 and ’99. After that is free agent signee Brian Moehler, who was hit hard last season, allowing opponents to hit over .300 against him. The best that the Astros can expect from Moehler is that he eats a lot of innings, no matter how bad he pitches.

Houston was hoping to have available the services of Carlos Hernandez as the fifth starter, but he underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in early February. That leaves a battle for the fifth spot going into spring training among Kirk Saarloos, Peter Munro, Jeriome Robertson, Tim Redding, Jared Fernandez and Jesus Sanchez.

Fantasy Spin

Oswalt and Miller should both go before the 6th round in most drafts. Oswalt probably in the top 3. Both Reynolds and Moehler should go undrafted, but keep an eye on Reynolds on the off chance he can regain his form of ’98 and ’99. All the candidates for the fifth starter position should go undrafted in single season leagues. Redding, Saarloos and Munro probably all have value in keepers, especially whoever walks away with the starting spot after spring training. Another one of that bunch could crack the starting rotation if Moehler is just awful or Reynolds goes on the DL.

Relief Pitching

Closer Billy Wagner is still solid. He finished last season with 22 second half saves after a pedestrian start.
Octavio Dotel is the premier relief pitcher in the league who doen’t close games. His ERA and WHIP are always excellent and he should pick up a few saves along the way, and a few wins out of the pen.

Fantasy Spin

Wagner should go when the run of front-line closers comes. He probably won’t last past the 8th in most leagues.

Dotel will be gone by the 16th round, before that in leagues that count holds.

Hitting

1B Jeff Bagwell (.291 avg., 31 HR, 98 RBI, 94 runs), LF Lance Berkman (.292, 42, 128, 106) and 2B Jeff Kent(.313, 37, 108, 102) provide a powerful middle of the lineup. Berkman and Bagwell should benefit from the addition of Kent in the lineup, while Kent will benefit from his change of scenery to Minute Maid Park, although he won’t have Barry Bonds hitting in his lineup. All three will benefit if RF Richard Hildago(.235, 15, 48, 54) can improve on his performance of last season and CF Craig Biggio(.253, 15, 58, 96) can play up to his level of a couple years ago and set the table for these guys.

Kent is a top tier 2B, one of only a few who can put up those types of numbers. His HR numbers could increase in the Juice Box that is Minute Maid Park, although last season’s 37 was a career high. His RBIs and runs will depend a lot upon how those around him in the lineup play.

Bagwell’s numbers were down a bit from the past 5 seasons, but he should be good for around .300 with 35 HRs, around 100 RBI, runs and walks. As always, a quality fantasy pick.

Berkman is also a quality fantasy player, who was down a bit in 2002 from the previous year. He again should hit around .300 with 40-45 HRs, 120 RBI and over 100 runs and walks.

Speaking of Biggio, his fantasy value plummets after this season unless he gets enough games at 2B to be eligible there next season. If not, he just becomes a below average hitting outfielder. So for keeper leagues, Biggio is a definite “trade him if you can” guy.

Hidalgo had by far the worst season of his career last year, worse in every category in 2002 than 2001 and way below his career best in 2000. I would look for him to rebound and put up similar numbers to 2001 (.275, 19, 90, 70). He will have fallen off a lot of radars because of his atrocious 2002 campaign, so he is a good late round pickup and if he comes anywhere close to his 2000 numbers (.314, 44, 122, 118) he’s an outright steal.

Adam Everett will get every chance to win the SS position, if he can’t Julio Lugo will be the man, however neither one of those guys is worth a look in fantasy leagues.

3B Morgan Ensberg has little fantasy value because of his lack of power, combined with his .242 average last season and his 2 stolen bases.

C Brad Ausmus(.257, 6, 50, 57) has limited fantasy value just because he’s not awful in a very shallow position.