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Derek Lowe (SP), ATL

- FA Signing
by James Meyerriecks - Tue Jan 13
  • News: The Braves signed Lowe to a four year, $60 million contract Tuesday. Lowe was 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.13 WHIP for Los Angeles last season.

    Views: I'm 50/50 on this deal, actually.

    First, let's look at the positives. Lowe has been incredibly steady for the Dodgers the past four seasons, finishing with an ERA of 3.88 or better and a WHIP of 1.27 or better in each of those seasons. He's also been incredibly durable, having made 32 or more starts in each of the past seven seasons since he made the move from the bullpen to the starting rotation. He's proven to be more successful since joining the National League, so staying in the NL should be a bonus for him.

    As for the negatives? The most obvious question mark regards the fourth year that the Braves gave him that most of the other teams weren't willing to give. Lowe will turn 36 in June, meaning he'll turn 40 in the final year of his contract. His home/road splits over the past couple of years also have to be something of a concern. Though Dodger Stadium hasn't played quite as well to pitchers in recent years as it used to, you'd never know it by looking at Lowe's numbers. Over the past three seasons, Lowe had a 2.95 ERA and 1.10 WHIP at home. Over that same stretch, he had a 4.24 ERA and 1.35 WHIP on the road. 2008 was even more lopsided, with Lowe finishing with a 2.30 ERA and 0.93 WHIP at home and a 4.42 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the road. He's going to miss Dodger Stadium.

    Finally, in an offseason that (save the Yankees' massive spending spree) has seen quite a few players sign for what you would assume is below their market value because of the struggles with the economy, Lowe is essentially a guy who has performed in the $10-$12 million range with a monster walk year and turned it into $15 million per. It's clear the Braves needed to add a money starter after watching Smoltz (who, if at 100%, you would think that the Braves would rather have for the upcoming season) head to Boston. The problem is, Smoltz signed a deal in Boston that will (pre-bonuses) pay him roughly a third of the annual value of Lowe's deal. Even if Smoltz hits all his bonuses, he'll make only about two-thirds of what Lowe will in 2009. It just doesn't add up. It might if Lowe was 31 or 32. It doesn't if he's 36.



    Posted by James Meyerriecks: Jan 13, 09 at 7:10 PM


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    Comments
    1
    stlsportsfan on 01/13/2009 08:45 pm
    Using any reliable metric or projection system there is, it's hard to argue that Lowe isn't a #1 starter. He's easily worth 15 million dollars a year for at least next year.

    Holding up over four years is the key though...but pitchers age more gracefully than pitchers do.

    I'm a bit surprised he got a 4th year though.
    2
    Scandalous Bob on 01/13/2009 09:00 pm
    stlsportsfan wrote:
    Using any reliable metric or projection system there is, it's hard to argue that Lowe isn't a #1 starter. He's easily worth 15 million dollars a year for at least next year.

    Holding up over four years is the key though...but pitchers age more gracefully than pitchers do.

    I'm a bit surprised he got a 4th year though.


    ESPN did an interesting comparison of Lowe and Smoltz. Over the past three seasons, Smoltz was better in literally every category. The only real difference was age (five years). Yet that was enough to get Lowe a 4-year deal, while Smoltz only got one.
    3
    Idahofan on 01/13/2009 09:25 pm
    How about FIP? TRA? Ground ball rate? Home runs allowed? How about games started? Who is healthier? Older? All much more important than wins and earned run average. You know, Lowe has never been to the DL in his career.

    And yes, I know Lowe isn't a strike out pitcher. That's ok, because he is a ground ball pitcher who limits his home runs.
    4
    Scandalous Bob on 01/13/2009 10:17 pm
    Idahofan wrote:
    How about FIP? TRA? Ground ball rate? Home runs allowed? How about games started? Who is healthier? Older? All much more important than wins and earned run average. You know, Lowe has never been to the DL in his career.


    That's why he got the better deal.
    5
    rice on 01/13/2009 10:53 pm
    Scandalous Bob wrote:
    Idahofan wrote:
    How about FIP? TRA? Ground ball rate? Home runs allowed? How about games started? Who is healthier? Older? All much more important than wins and earned run average. You know, Lowe has never been to the DL in his career.


    That's why he got the better deal.
    yes, he is younger and he wasnt hurt for almost all of last year.
    6
    stlsportsfan on 01/14/2009 12:33 am
    Scandalous Bob wrote:
    stlsportsfan wrote:
    Using any reliable metric or projection system there is, it's hard to argue that Lowe isn't a #1 starter. He's easily worth 15 million dollars a year for at least next year.

    Holding up over four years is the key though...but pitchers age more gracefully than pitchers do.

    I'm a bit surprised he got a 4th year though.


    ESPN did an interesting comparison of Lowe and Smoltz. Over the past three seasons, Smoltz was better in literally every category. The only real difference was age (five years). Yet that was enough to get Lowe a 4-year deal, while Smoltz only got one.


    I'd be interested to see what stats ESPN used, because in the past they have a tendency to do the "mile wide, inch deep" thing where they might "ZOMG his era iz teh suck!!!1!" without looking at anything else.
    7
    hessshaun on 01/14/2009 03:50 pm
    I agree and Lowe got the better deal because he wasnt hurt.

    Let's face it, Smoltz has been a RICH man for a LONG time before this year. You can compare the salaries all you want. He was richer than Lowe will be after this four year deal probably 10 years ago. Point being, he isnt in it for the money, he wants to win. He wasn't signing with the Royals in the best baseball market you can find.

    Smoltz wasnt only good, he was Hall of Fame good. Atlanta writers are saying Lowe is the replacement, that's how much they believe in the guy. He has been doing this for 20 years. He will be a great pitcher.

    Lowe however, is just after a big paycheck. It just so happens that the Braves outbid most people and were willing to overlook that three year comfort zone. He started out as a RP, so he is still working on his tons of money to compensate for lost time because it doesnt last forever.
    8
    Idahofan on 01/14/2009 07:43 pm
    hessshaun wrote:
    I agree and Lowe got the better deal because he wasnt hurt.

    Let's face it, Smoltz has been a RICH man for a LONG time before this year. You can compare the salaries all you want. He was richer than Lowe will be after this four year deal probably 10 years ago. Point being, he isnt in it for the money, he wants to win. He wasn't signing with the Royals in the best baseball market you can find.

    Smoltz wasnt only good, he was Hall of Fame good. Atlanta writers are saying Lowe is the replacement, that's how much they believe in the guy. He has been doing this for 20 years. He will be a great pitcher.

    Lowe however, is just after a big paycheck. It just so happens that the Braves outbid most people and were willing to overlook that three year comfort zone. He started out as a RP, so he is still working on his tons of money to compensate for lost time because it doesnt last forever.


    Lowe has been starting for six years now, so he's not exactly new to the post. He's made fifty million (roughly, probably a little more with endorsements)... I guess what im saying is I dont get the point of your post. You say he is just after a big paycheck... so? So was Sabathia, so was Burnett, so were a lot of guys. Personally, I think the braves have a great shot at the NL East next year. Atlanta's not Boston, but from a competetive standpoint, he stays in the weaker league, goes behind a great defense in a good ball park... I think he could put up the best 'traditional' stats of his life.
    9
    hessshaun on 01/14/2009 07:53 pm
    Idahofan wrote:
    hessshaun wrote:
    I agree and Lowe got the better deal because he wasnt hurt.

    Let's face it, Smoltz has been a RICH man for a LONG time before this year. You can compare the salaries all you want. He was richer than Lowe will be after this four year deal probably 10 years ago. Point being, he isnt in it for the money, he wants to win. He wasn't signing with the Royals in the best baseball market you can find.

    Smoltz wasnt only good, he was Hall of Fame good. Atlanta writers are saying Lowe is the replacement, that's how much they believe in the guy. He has been doing this for 20 years. He will be a great pitcher.

    Lowe however, is just after a big paycheck. It just so happens that the Braves outbid most people and were willing to overlook that three year comfort zone. He started out as a RP, so he is still working on his tons of money to compensate for lost time because it doesnt last forever.


    Lowe has been starting for six years now, so he's not exactly new to the post. He's made fifty million (roughly, probably a little more with endorsements)... I guess what im saying is I dont get the point of your post. You say he is just after a big paycheck... so? So was Sabathia, so was Burnett, so were a lot of guys. Personally, I think the braves have a great shot at the NL East next year. Atlanta's not Boston, but from a competetive standpoint, he stays in the weaker league, goes behind a great defense in a good ball park... I think he could put up the best 'traditional' stats of his life.


    This is like you trying to explain to me about Fielder and arbitration.

    I was talking more along the lines in the discussion about Lowe getting the better deal over Smoltz.

    Yes, I agree, Atlanta will be better and yes he should statistically have another solid year. IMO, he is more valuable than Burnett.

    I still think Atlanta has some glaring weaknesses in their lineup though.
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