Shining Springs
April 01, 2003
Welcome to “Prospect Alert,” the informative new column with information regarding all aspects of the minor leagues. Throughout the course of this season, we will focus on minor leagues with the goal of informing fantasy players about the minor leagues. From player scouting to specific player breakdowns, this is the place to visit for top-notch minor league information.
As Opening Day grows near, many prospects are fighting for a spot on the major league roster. Some of the top prospects are nearly guaranteed roster spots due to their talent, while others need to post solid numbers in order to be noticed. It is always a risk to select a prospect in any fantasy league, but those in deeper leagues need to notice those prospects who have played well throughout spring training.
Here is a look at those players who have excelled this spring, complete with spring statistics. OPS is not included as it has a tendency to be inaccurate given such small sample sizes.
C Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
AB: 20
AVG: .400
K/BB: 6/2
HR: 0
SB: 0
Mauer is a few years away from making a true impact, but the spring production has left his fellow players impressed. Expect similar solid production out of Mauer once he reaches the majors, as he could quickly become one of the game’s best backstops. The only concern with Mauer is his youth and lack of experience, which will likely keep him in the minors for another 3 years. While this may hurt those counting on a fast promotion for this top prospect, he will pay big dividends over the long haul.
1B Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians
AB: 44
AVG: .409
K/BB: 9/5
HR: 4
SB: 0
Hafner is a legitimate ROY candidate, and it would not be surprising to see him belt 25 homers. The Indians acquired him to fill the hole left by Jim Thome’s departure, and he should provide solid production. Overlooked in a Rangers system packed with corner infield talent, Hafner showed his true talent with a strong spring. Watch him early in the season, and be ready to grab him if he continues to produce into the season.
1B Chin Feng-Chen, Los Angeles Dodgers
AB: 19
AVG: .579
K/BB: 3/3
HR: 3
SB: 0
Chen will not be starting the year in the big leagues, but his spring production is highly encouraging. Once considered to be one of the better hitting prospects in baseball, Chen’s stock has fallen in recent years. Weight gain led to poor production, and his stock fell rapidly over the past few seasons. The spring results look excellent, and Chen will be one to watch in Triple-A. A deep sleeper with plenty of potential, Chen could surprise many fans in the near future.
1B Hee Seop Choi, Chicago Cubs
AB: 42
AVG: .333
K/BB: 9/8
HR: 1
SB: 0
Choi is one of the best-known prospects on this list, yet his production merits recognition. Perhaps the most encouraging statistic is the plate discipline, which seems to have improved from past seasons. It’s a very small sample size, but could quite easily translate into regular-season success. A .280-25-90 season appears to be a fair estimate for this year.
1B Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins
AB: 21
AVG: .429
K/BB: 6/2
HR: 3
SB: 0
Morneau is another year away from making a big impact, but appears to be the top candidate to become the Twins’ franchise first baseman. Mientkiewicz does not appear to be the long-term option at first, and Morneau has the talent to surpass the incumbent’s current level of production. Given a full year in the high minors, it is possible that Morneau will be the Twins’ Opening Day 2004 starter at first. He’s not a legitimate option at the big league level for this season, but will reach the majors faster than many expect.
SS Angel Berroa, Kansas City Royals
AB: 52
AVG: .346
K/BB: 4/2
HR: 0
SB: 2
Visa problems prompted a disappointing age increase for Berroa, which led to the diminishment of his minor league success. Last season was a terrible failure for Berroa, and no prospect sustained a greater drop in overall value over the past season. That will all change if he is able to sustain this type of production into the regular season, and this situation bears watching. If Berroa continues to pound the ball, he could become a legitimate fantasy option in AL-only leagues as early as this year, with a more widespread fantasy value coming in the near future.
SS Bobby Crosby, Oakland A’s
AB: 36
AVG: .306
K/BB: 7/3
HR: 1
SB: 2
The A’s wanted to give Crosby extra playing time as he is viewed as the likely successor to Miguel Tejada, and he certainly didn’t disappoint them. Crosby is a talented athlete, and could start as early as next season with the expected departure of Tejada through free agency. If this happens, Crosby will be worth long look next spring, and a solid season will give him the early lead on the expected opening. In the unlikely scenario that Tejada re-signs with the A’s, expect Crosby to be shifted to second base, where he should have little trouble supplanting Mark Ellis.
SS Felipe Lopez, Cincinnati Reds
AB: 56
AVG: .286
K/BB: 12/7
HR: 3
SB: 5
The Reds like Lopez so much that they have considered moving Barry Larkin to other positions in order to clear up room for the young slugger. All the tools are present in Lopez, with plate discipline being the biggest question mark. For now, Lopez will have minimal value in NL-only leagues, but a sudden surge in his value would occur if he is able to supplant Larkin as the starting shortstop. Lopez did fail in a somewhat brief major league stint last year, but is much more talented than he showed in that major league cameo.
3B Drew Henson, New York Yankees
AB: 22
AVG: .318
K/BB: 4/0
HR: 0
SB: 0
Henson is constantly criticized by the media, particularly in New York. The pressure to succeed is great, but Henson is determined to succeed in baseball even with the potential of developing into a starting NFL quarterback. That determination, coupled with Henson’s youth and potential, should be enough to keep him towards the top of the Yankees’ prospect charts for one more year, but he will need to produce in order to maintain that ranking. Henson is a boom-or-bust type prospect, and improving his strike-zone judgment will be crucial to his future success.
3B Mark Teixeira, Texas Rangers
AB: 71
AVG: .310
K/BB: 17/11
HR: 6
SB: 0
It has been the belief of this corner to stay away from Teixeira this season, and his solid spring does not drastically change that stance. Plenty of Texas prospects have followed a similar pattern of early success, only to falter upon initial regular season exposure. Playing time is another concern, as Teixeira will clearly be handled with kids gloves until he stands his own for an extended period of time. Many will rush to snatch Teixeira, but the price will likely be too high.
3B Sean Burroughs, San Diego Padres
AB: 29
AVG: .345
K/BB: 2/4
HR: 0
SB: 3
Burroughs has encountered injury problems, and isn’t a legitimate fantasy option for this season. The average is a nice advantage, but does not make up for his lack of power and speed. Burroughs is a fine prospect, and will likely develop into one of the better third baseman in baseball. However, until he develops some secondary tools to complement his ability to hit for average, do not expect Burroughs to be useful in fantasy leagues.
OF Xavier Nady, San Diego Padres
AB: 46
AVG: .326
K/BB: 9/1
HR: 0
SB: 1
Nady will be the Padres’ starting right fielder, and should provide decent production out of that spot. He will also qualify as a third baseman in many leagues, given that he played there for much of his minor league career. A lack of patience will likely hamper Nady throughout this season, but he could be a pleasant surprise in NL-only leagues.
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As is clearly evident, the hot-hitting prospects are nearly all infield prospects. This is not meant to exclude any outfield prospects, but there has not been an abundance of outfield prospects tearing up pitching this spring.
Pitching prospects who have played well are featured in the next edition of “Prospect Alert.” However, there are too many prospects that fit this category to group them all together. Remember, invest in young prospects carefully, as they are the riskiest options for fantasy league owners.
Please leave any comments/suggestions/questions using the “comment” feature at the bottom of this page, or feel free to leave a message on the Fantasy Info Central message board. The more feedback provided, the better this column can be devised. In the coming weeks, look for an in-depth look at the league’s top prospects.
Posted by Richie Madden: Apr 1 at 1:10 PM
Fantasy Baseball 
Although Morneau is clearly the future of the Twins at 1b, I'm just a bit curious as to your feelings on Todd Sears. I noticed that, despite crushing the ball as compared to Doug Mientkiewicz hitting for his usual mediocre average and nothing else (well.... fantastic defensive skills), Sears was sent back down to AAA. At 26, it would seem that he's just about run out of time, but it seems to me that this kid could have a decent future if someone would give him a shot.
Your estimates for Hee Sop Choi: .280 25 90? That is ridiculous considering it appears he'll be platooning at first and considering that would be one of the better lines in the past ten years by a rookie. We'll see...
Jim,
I like Sears, and he's worth a look after the numbers he's produced. More than likely, they felt that his poor plate discipline would result in poor performance if he was given consistent playing time, but that argument is a bit shaky. He's produced at every level he's played, and should have at least won a spot on the bench.
The other concern is his age. I think his stats last year were a bit inflated due to his maturity in comparison to his competition, but the spring stats seem to ease those concerns. I think he'll make a fine player for some team, but it likely won't be the Twins. I wouldn't be surprised to see him starting, and feel that he has the potential to be a decent starter, but he'll likely end up on the bench for much of his career.
Jonathan,
I will only make predictions if I feel as though a prospect has a decent chance at exceeding expectations, and I usually pick the one prospect each year that I feel has the best chance of doing so. If I said "Choi could hit .280-25-90," it wouldn't be very bold. Any prospect COULD post those numbers, but going out on a limb is the fun part when dealing with prospects. That statement was made due to his strong spring, and enormous potential. The odds are against him reaching those expectations, but you've got to take a risk if you wish to get anywhere. As for the platoon, don't be too concerned about Karros. If Choi produces, 500 at-bats won't be a problem.
Thanks for the comments!
Hop See Choi is AWFUL. His power is way over embelished. I saw him in spring training and he seems smaller than listed. I am VERY disapointed in how he's turned out. There are some other young guys like Prince Fielder, Andy Marte, Adam Wainwright, Brad nelson, Corey Hart, Jason Stokes, todd Linden, etc who all project star qualities. Choi is a Eric Karros type player. Mid level power, mid level average, not good defensively, no plate discipline. you webpage is great, i'm just overly critical - John
John,
We'll see how Choi works out. I think he'll be okay, but thanks for the comments. I appreciate any feedback, especially that which speaks a different belief than mine.
It's all good. i would like your opinions and to know anything you've heard in regards to Andy Marte (Braves) Clay Condrey (Padres) Jason Stokes (FLA) and Todd Linden (Giants).
John,
I've decided to answer any questions that readers might have in the next edition of "Prospect Alert." So, instead of simply giving a fairly short answer here, I will elaborate in-depth on your question in the next issue.
In order, I'd rank them Stokes, Linden, Marte, and Condrey. The top three are all close, and vary quite a bit based on which qualifiers are used to evaluate them (age, proximity to majors, potential, past production, etc.), and all are fine prospects. Marte's production this seaosn will be crucial, as he is relatively inexperienced. Keep an eye on the injury status of Stokes. Condrey could be a decent starter this year, but is a bit old for a prospect. Linden is interesting, and the outlook on him varies greatly depending on the source. I'll answer your question in full in the next article.
You seem to know quite a bit about prospects. It's always good to see interest in the young stars of the future.
Thanks for the feedback!