Prospect Alert
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Slumpers and Stumpers

Welcome to “Prospect Alert,” the informative new column with information regarding all aspects of the minor leagues. Throughout the course of this season, we will focus on minor leagues with the goal of informing fantasy players about the minor leagues. From player scouting to specific player breakdowns, this is the place to visit for top-notch minor league information.

The season has just begun, yet organizational prospect depth charts are already changing. Plenty has been said about the hot starts, yet plenty of prospects have failed to produce. Will the trends continue, or will they turn it around? We’ll take a look at some of the early-season failures, and the probability of a return to productivity.

Perhaps the biggest disappointment has been Devil Rays’ OF Josh Hamilton, who left the organization during spring training. Nobody seems to know where Hamilton is, and his family has refused to speak of his whereabouts. It might make for a nice office pool, “Where’s Josh?”, but rest assured that the front office is not pleased. It’s one thing to have a highly-regarded prospect injured as often as Hamilton has been, but it is quite another when he walks out and leaves. Hamilton received the ninth-highest signing bonus in the history of the draft, and needs to start performing. He is quickly falling down prospect rankings across the nation.

Yankees 3B Drew Henson has warned NFL teams against selecting him with a late-round pick in the upcoming NFL Draft. He is eligible for the draft as it has been two years since Henson left Michigan to pursue a career in baseball. If you think the warning was given because he is committed fully to baseball, think again. If Henson is not drafted, he would fall immediately into the NFL Free Agent Pool, and would undoubtedly receive plenty of lucrative contract offers. Henson has not hit well throughout his career, and does not look to be breaking that trend this year, either. Had Henson stayed in school and entered the NFL Draft this year, he most likely would have been a serious candidate to be selected over Carson Palmer by the Bengals.

Yes, that is the same Alex Escobar in Triple-A Buffalo who was once considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball. The 24-year-old outfielder missed all of last season after tearing his ACL, and it appears as though he still may be injured. Escobar is hitting .180 with 20 strikeouts in 50 at-bats, and the only encouraging sign is that he has shown solid power, with three doubles and two homers included in his nine hits. He is extremely cheap in most keeper leagues, and might be worth a shot in a few of the deeper multiple-season leagues. The talent is there, and his potential for success remains higher than most prospects.

Things aren’t looking too great in Atlanta, where both 3B Wilson Betemit and 3B Andy Marte have struggled in limited action this season. Betemit has shown signs of turning things around after an injury-plagued 2002 campaign, but has yet to produce in regular-season play. Marte is the more concerning case, as he only has one productive season under his belt. His plate discipline is poor, and he could end up as this season’s Corey Smith, a highly-hyped third base prospect who fails to live up to his potential. One reason for encouragement: Smith has stepped up his game, and is currently enjoying a productive season in Single-A.

Remember Gookie Dawkins, the former Reds middle-infield prospect? Dawkins is now with the Dodgers, and has failed to develop into the solid player that many expected him to. The Dodgers could use another option at shortstop, which makes his struggles even more discouraging. Still relatively young, there is room for Dawkins in the big leagues if he starts to produce.

Another Dodgers prospect, 1B James Loney, has gotten off to a rough start. Considered one of the best teenage prospects in baseball, Loney still has plenty of potential. For now, though, he appears to be overmatched in High-A Vero Beach, and the Dodgers may be expecting too much out of Loney at such an early stage of development. It would be a shame to mess up the development of this young slugger, and it might be best to send Loney back to Low-A for a while. Either way, Loney should eventually develop into a very solid first baseman at the major league level.

OF Jackson Melian is a well-traveled prospect, yet the change of scenery has yet to spark his production. No longer granted status as a prospect by many talent evaluators, the tools remain remarkably present, and Melian has already hit two homers with three steals in limited action. If only Melian was able to improve his strike-zone judgment, he would catapult up the prospect charts. Another example that athletic ability does not always translate to real-life production.

QUESTION OF THE WEEK

Todd Sears/ Michael Restovich / Joe Mauer / Justin Morneau
Will Mauer be at AAA any point this year?

I like Todd Sears, and he should have earned a look in the big leagues after the numbers he's produced. Hopefully the Twins will agree, as he's produced at every level he's played, and should have at least won a spot on the bench after his performance this spring. Sears has struggled a bit in the minors this year, but will likely earn a big league reserve spot later this year due to injury or poor performance by a current member of the big-league squad. The main concern is his age. I think his stats last year were a bit inflated due to his maturity in comparison to his competition, but the spring stats seem to ease those concerns. I think he'll make a fine player for some team, but it likely won't be the Twins. I wouldn't be surprised to see him starting, and feel that he has the potential to be a decent starter, but he'll likely end up on the bench for much of his career.

Michael Restovich is a very interesting case. He is relatively weak in the plate discipline department, yet has produced despite those concerns. He could end up in the majors at any time, or could stay in the minors for a while longer. It all depends on a great number of variables, as there is simply too much outfield depth currently in the Twins’ organization. Restovich is a top-five prospect in the Twins’ organization, as are Mauer and Morneau. His power potential is especially intriguing, and helps to mask his poor strike-zone judgment. With another year in the minors, Restovich will be a legitimate candidate to open the 2004 season in the Twins’ starting outfield.

So far this year, Joe Mauer has struggled. He is hitting .258, which does not seem too bad, but it becomes a problem when the fact that he has had no extra-base hits is taken into consideration. He is still young, and has plenty of time to develop, but it is a bit of a concern that the power he showed in past seasons has regressed so far this year. There is plenty of time for him to turn things around, but until he does, the lack of power will hurt his status. Mauer tends to be overrated by some analysts and underrated by others, but he may be a notch behind Cleveland’s Victor Martinez as the top catching prospect in baseball. If he reaches Triple-A this season, it will not be for another few months. It would be best for his development for the Twins to allow him to spend the entire year in Double-A.

Justin Morneau is another year away from making a big impact, but appears to be the top candidate to become the Twins’ franchise first baseman. Mientkiewicz does not appear to be the long-term option at first, and Morneau has the talent to surpass the incumbent’s current level of production. Given a full year in the high minors, it is possible that Morneau will be the Twins’ Opening Day 2004 starter at first. He’s not a legitimate option at the big league level for this season, but will reach the majors faster than many expect. So far, he has done nothing but produce in Double-A, hitting .306 with four homers. A promotion to Triple-A could be in store for Morneau, perhaps at the expense of Sears’ playing time.

Another Twins’ prospect to keep an eye on is OF Denard Span, who has yet to play in the minors. He was the organization’s first-round pick in 2002, and is a raw 19-year-old out of high school. Span is extremely fast, fits in well as a future leadoff hitter, and could possibly give Torii Hunter a run at the center fielder’s job sometime down the road. Perhaps the biggest praise that can be given to Span is that he was selected with the Twins’ first pick in last year’s draft, despite having no need for another outfielder. Span will only add to the already confusing situation in the outfield, but the Twins felt highly enough about him to pass up other needs. His game is all about speed, and Span could be one of the game’s top leadoff hitters in his prime.

Please leave any comments/suggestions/questions using the “comment” feature at the bottom of this page, or feel free to leave a message on the Fantasy Info Central message board. The more feedback provided, the better this column can be devised. In the coming weeks, look for an in-depth look at the league’s top prospects.

---