Potential Promotions
April 29, 2003
Welcome to “Prospect Alert,” the informative new column with information regarding all aspects of the minor leagues. Throughout the course of this season, we will focus on minor leagues with the goal of informing fantasy players about the minor leagues. From player scouting to specific player breakdowns, this is the place to visit for top-notch minor league information.
The season has just begun, yet organizational prospect depth charts are already changing. Plenty has been said about the hot starts, yet plenty of prospects have failed to produce. Will the trends continue, or will they turn it around? We’ll take a look at some of the prospects with the best chance of earning a promotion in the next few months, and examine their fantasy prospectus for this season.
Quite obviously, SP Rich Harden is one of the leading candidates for promotion. He tore up Double-A, and has continued that success since his promotion to Triple-A. It would not be surprising to see Harden in the majors in the near future, but the A’s current major league staff has been solid. Unless that changes, the Harden Watch will likely remain on high alert until midseason. Even so, Harden is drawing serious consideration as potentially the top pitching prospect in baseball. For now, Harden will have to be content with dominating minor league opponents.
Fantasy Alert: When Harden is promoted, it will be hard to resist grabbing him in deeper and AL-only leagues. That would be the wise choice, and he is one of the best young choices for keeper leagues. Expect a solid strikeout total and decent supporting numbers, with plenty of wins.
On a related note, now may be the last chance to pick up Giants SP Jesse Foppert in many fantasy leagues. He has had some control problems, but has been effective in all but one inning, his first in the big leagues. Those control problems are a bit concerning, but now is the time to play the potential card. He should be on a roster in all NL-only and deeper mixed leagues.
Indians SP Jeremy Guthrie has been sensational this year, and threw a three-hit shutout on Sunday. After signing too late in 2002 to compete in the minor leagues, he had a successful offseason that has carried over into the regular season. He is currently 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA, and could very well earn a promotion to the big league club later this year.
Fantasy Alert: If Guthrie earns a promotion later in the season, he is worth watching. His strikeout total will not be as high as many other prospects, but he has solid velocity and is a tremendous talent. The Cleveland starting pitching situation is a bit cloudy, with at least 3 or 4 other starters figuring to be candidates to fill any opening that might become available in the major league rotation. With his hot start, Guthrie might have jumped to the top of that list.
It is still early, but 3B Chad Tracy has had a tremendous start to the season. This column hasn’t been kind to Tracy in the past, and still is not crazy about his long-term potential, but he could develop into a decent player for the next decade or so. He has hit .367-3-13 with solid plate discipline and solid power to the gaps, but his defense will need some work. With seven errors in only 23 games, his current defensive production will be enough of a reason for the D’Backs to keep him in the minors for a little longer than Tracy might like.
Fantasy Alert: The early results do look encouraging, and it is possible that his defense will improve enough to earn a promotion in the near future. However, it will be difficult for Tracy to translate his recent power increase to the majors, which would significantly decrease his fantasy value. Playing at a position that demands a large home run total, Tracy is not an ideal fantasy option. For that reason, it would be wise to ignore him for this season, even if he is promoted. Only when the home runs continue into the majors should Tracy be considered a legitimate fantasy option.
PLAYER PERFORMANCE LISTS
This is a new feature that will be tried out for the first time this week, and is similar to the ones featured in many team reports. Two separate lists will be created, and these lists will be based on performance over the season as a whole, with the emphasis on the past few weeks. Since performance usually has a great impact on a prospect’s “stock,” we’ll focus on those prospects who have experienced a recent rise or fall in their net worth. This, of course, will represent each prospect’s total overall value to his organization, and how that value has changed due to recent performance. The first few prospects on each list will have comments, but the others will not. Hopefully these lists will help fantasy owners looking for a gem in keeper leagues, but be sure to check each prospect’s actual statistics after checking this list. These will be a nice guideline, but be sure each player fits your needs before making a quick acquisition.
STOCK RISING
1. SP Luis Martinez, Double-A (Brewers) – Hadn’t allowed a run in 23 innings until recent outing. Dominating, with 38 Ks in 29 innings of work.
2. 3B Miguel Cabrera, Double-A (Marlins) – Absolutely dominating opposing pitching. If promoted to Triple-A, he would form a tremendous 1-2 punch with fellow prospect Adrian Gonzalez.
3. SP Vince Perkins, Single-A (Blue Jays) – Has pitched 23 innings, and is the only minor league starting pitcher who has not allowed a run.
4. SP John Van Benschoten, Single-A (Pirates) – Most teams saw him as a positional player, but he is quickly proving them wrong.
5. SP Zach Greinke, Single-A (Royals) - Like the Royals’ major league team isn’t doing good enough. Greinke is not on the short-term horizon, but could be a decent long-term option.
6. 1B Justin Morneau, Double-A (Twins)
7. 1B Prince Fielder, Single-A (Brewers)
8. SP Merkin Valdez, Single-A (Giants)
9. SP Jeremy Guthrie, Double-A (Indians) – See above
10. OF Alexis Rios, Double-A (Blue Jays)
11. SP Jason Arnold, Double-A (Blue Jays) – The recent trades have helped Arnold progress. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for trade-mate OF John-Ford Griffin.
12. 3B Chad Tracy, Triple-A (D’Backs)
13. 3B Travis Hanson, Single-A (Cardinals)
14. SP Andy Sisco, Single-A (Cubs)
15. 2B Willie Harris, Triple-A (White Sox) – Tremendous performance in all categories. Harris is a legitimate sleeper for later this year, especially given his current level of production.
STOCK FALLING
1. OF Josh Hamilton, Not Available (Devil Rays) – That’s right, Hamilton is still missing. Of course, we’ll keep you posted if things should turn around, but his stock is falling faster than that of any prospect in recent memory. A very sad story, one can only hope that things turn around. For now, it’s difficult to know what to think of Hamilton’s future, but hopefully everything is going all right for him.
2. 3B Drew Henson, Triple-A (Yankees) – No, he hasn’t turned things around yet. To make matters worse, he was drafted by the Texans, which will complicate things even further. As if he didn’t have enough things to worry about, Henson will have some difficult decisions to make in the comings weeks.
3. 3B Wilson Betemit, Triple-A (Braves) – This is a real shame, as it appeared as though Betemit had turned things around after a fairly successful stint in winter ball. Apparently, that is not the case, but hopefully things will turn around in a hurry for this once former top prospect.
4. OF Alex Escobar, Triple-A (Indians) – This story keeps getting worse and worse. During the offseason, it looked as though Escobar was ready to take a big leap forward, but his plate discipline has continually held him back. If things don’t turn around soon, Escobar may never even crack a big league roster for a consistent chunk of time, let alone become a successful starter.
5. 1B Jason Stokes, Single-A (Florida) – It looked as though only injuries could slow this slugger down, but he is making a strong case to disprove that theory. His plate discipline has dropped, and his overall numbers are down.
6. OF Gregor Blanco, Single-A (Braves)
7. SP Chris Gruler, Single-A (Reds) – Initial performance has been so poor that Gruler is now in Rookie-Level Billings, and might not start for another few months.
8. SS Luis Montanez, Single-A (Cubs)
9. 1B James Loney, Single-A (Dodgers)
10. SS Michael Garciaparra, Single-A (Mariners)
11. SP Justin Wayne, Triple-A (Marlins)
12. C Gerald Laird, Triple-A (Rangers)
13. OF Rick Asadoorian, Single-A (Cardinals)
14. OF Laynce Nix, Double-A (Rangers)
15. SP Corwin Malone, Double-A (White Sox) – Terrible control problems. Malone has walked way more than he has struck out (22:14).
Please leave any comments/suggestions/questions using the “comment” feature at the bottom of this page, or feel free to leave a message on the Fantasy Info Central message board. The more feedback provided, the better this column can be devised. In the coming weeks, look for an in-depth look at the league’s top prospects.
Posted by Richie Madden: Apr 29 at 1:31 PM
Fantasy Baseball 
Great column Richie. I like the addition of the Stock Rising/Falling - great stuff.
Quick question about Tracy. What do you think the likelihood of him being called up is? Will he be with the D'Backs before September? Matt Williams isn't hitting at all, but Brenly has typically rode out his veterans over rookies.
And with Rey Sanchez a hitting disaster, will Jose Reyes make an appearance sooner than later with the Mets?
Thanks in advance and keep up the great column.
Chris,
Thanks for the comments.
The Tracy situation will be an interesting one to watch. He’s only 22-years-old, and experiencing his first action at Triple-A. He could use some more time in the minors, particularly to work on his defense, but I don’t think it would hamper Tracy’s overall development to promote him in the short-term future. If promoted today and given 500 at-bats, Tracy could hit .290 with 10 homers, and he’d likely field well enough to avoid being a major problem in the field. One reason for concern, however, is the lack of success encountered on the debuts of better overall prospects, such as Hank Blalock, Sean Burroughs, and Mark Teixeira. Could Tracy overcome initial challenges to be a productive hitter upon his major league debut?
It seems like the best move would be to wait until after midseason, perhaps sometime during August, to promote Tracy. That will give him some more polish in the minors, an improved grasp on the defensive side of the game, and more confidence to make a solid debut in the big leagues. As you mentioned, Brenly would have a hard time entrusting a young hitter like Tracy with such a large responsibility, so it would be tough to see any promotion until at least the All-Star break, and I’ve heard no rumors to suggest otherwise. With the aging Williams currently manning the hot corner, though, Tracy is just an injury away from earning that promotion.
As for Reyes, his situation is particularly intriguing. The kid already has 17 steals, yet is hitting only .259. His plate discipline has been subpar, causing concerns of the level of success that Reyes would have if he was promoted. I don’t think it will matter much, as his defense is too good to overlook. Reyes would be considered one of the better defensive shortstops in the National League if he was promoted today.
Looking at particular timetables, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Reyes in the majors around the midseason mark. It would be wise to leave him in the minors for the entire year, but this guy would be a huge marketing tool for the Mets. Everything seems to point to a second-half promotion, but I would not be surprised to see Reyes suit up in a Mets uniform by June 1. Also, Sanchez has had some pain in his elbow, which is worth tracking. If he’s forced to the DL, the timing would be perfect for a Reyes promotion.
Also, I’d like to sneak in a quick update on the Josh Hamilton situation. I’ve just learned that Hamilton will be reporting to Double-A within the next week, and that he just needed some time off for personal issues. He’s still extremely talented, and this situation bears watching. I’ll keep everyone posted on this situation through future issues.
Richie,
Just wanted your views on Gerald Laird and Laynce Nix and why they're on your "Stock Falling" list. I know their stats so far this year, just wanted your input.
BTW, great job and like Chris, I love the addition of the rising and falling section. Keep up the good work.
Michael,
Thanks for the comments.
The primary reason for placing Nix on the "stock falling" list was a slump he hit for a few weeks over the last month. I'd heard some speculation that there was a chance he'd start the year with Texas; instead, despite a hot start, he hit a cold streak over the past few weeks, starting the season in Double-A. For him, mention on this list was more of a "cold" marker, and his future potential remains high. He's a great long-term prospect, there were just a few rough weeks that got a bit covered up by an excellent start to the season.
Laird, though, is a bit more concerning. He drew a recent promotion to the majors, but it would've been better to keep him in the minors. His plate discipline was horrible, which is most concerning as it's a downgrade from past seasons. The promotion really could hurt his future, at least in the short-term. This could hurt his confidence quite a bit if he continues to struggle, but hopefully it won't have an adverse effect on him. The Rangers must've seen this as the best option, and they must feel confident that this will not hurt Laird over the long haul. I hope he turns things around.
Well, after releasing Chad Krueter and having Todd Greene go on the DL, Laird was almost the Rangers only option. It doesn't look like they are planning on playing a whole lot, as Diaz has been behind the plate on a consistent basis lately. I agree on his plate discipline, as he has way too many strikeouts this early in the season.
Thanks.
Yeah, I wasn't entirely sure about the situation regarding that promotion. I just looked over the catching stats for the Rangers, and it's a messy situation. I guess Laird certainly can't be a downgrade over any of the former backups.