Reader Response, Part IV
June 05, 2003
Welcome to “Prospect Alert,” the informative new column with information regarding all aspects of the minor leagues. Throughout the course of this season, we will focus on minor leagues with the goal of informing fantasy players about the minor leagues. From player scouting to specific player breakdowns, this is the place to visit for top-notch minor league information.
Prospect evaluation can cover a wide variety of players and topics. To help eliminate some of the confusion in terms of prospects, it is best to break down a few prospects that readers have specific questions about. So, if you have any questions that you would like answered, feel free to drop a comment at the bottom of the page, and you will receive an in-depth answer in a future column.
Here are the questions for this week:
Which one of the following will be the better fantasy shortstop: Freddy Sanchez or Jose Reyes?
If both players were given equal opportunity on a standard team, the better option at this point would be Sanchez. He is older and more prepared for the majors than Reyes, but that might not make a difference. Reyes is more likely to receive consistent playing time at the big-league level this year, as Sanchez has a relatively crowded path ahead of him that will need to be overcome before he is able to gain consistent playing time.
In the future, Reyes will be the better choice, by quite a bit. Sanchez is a solid prospect, but does not have the tools of Reyes. Reyes has an excellent chance at developing into one of the National League’s best shortstops, and could quickly become a fantasy force. He has plenty of speed and will hit for a solid average, more than can be said for many current starting shortstops. Neither player should make a major fantasy impact for another year or two, and Reyes will be the better long-term option.
What do you know about Shane Komine? I have noticed he has some good numbers in Double-A this year (and a good nickname, the Hawaiian Punchout). The next in a long line of good Oakland pitchers?
Komine is often overlooked, and that has held true since his college days. The main reason is his size, as the listing for Komine has him at 5-foot-10 and 175 pounds, but that is quite generous. He isn’t a huge pitcher, not even average size. However, he has had success all throughout his career, and it is quite fitting that a team such as the A’s would be the organization to develop Komine. They always seem to be at the cutting edge of college pitching, willing to take risks on pitchers that no other team would select.
As for his future potential, Komine appears to be a good bet. He is in an excellent organization, one that will undoubtedly be beneficial to his development. Komine throws five pitches, including a slightly better-than-average fastball and an above-average slider. The two concerns with Komine are injuries and projectability. Injuries have hampered Komine throughout his entire life, and he has missed time due to back and shoulder problems. Those are obviously a concern, especially with a young pitcher such as Komine. As long as the injuries hold out, Komine has a great chance at developing into an effective pitcher in the big leagues. In terms of projectability, what you see is what you get with Komine. He will not get much better, but should be a solid pitcher for quite some time if he is able to stay healthy. Komine would be a nice fit as a middle-of-the-rotation starter for most teams, but might not get much of an opportunity with Oakland. He simply does not have the upside of many pitchers already in the organization.
What do you know about Freddy Sanchez and Andy Sisco?
Freddy Sanchez is quickly becoming a popular prospect, and this is the second question of the week involving him. He is a solid prospect, but is a bit overhyped due to his recent success. Sanchez will hit for a solid average at any level, but will not provide much else in terms of fantasy production. He is a solid doubles hitter, a trait that will certainly be extenuated at Fenway Park. However, he will not provide very many steals, and does not possess much over-the-fence power. He is one of those players who is much more useful for his major league team than fantasy teams.
Sisco is arguably the top prospect in the Cubs’ organization, and that is not an exaggeration. He is extremely talented, showing excellent physical tools and backing his natural talent up with actual production. His control has been cited as a possible area of concern, but that has not prevented him from producing at a high rate. Sisco throws a low- to mid-90s fastball, curve, splitter, and changeup. He already has two complete games in six starts this year, but has battled some injury problems. He broke his hand after hitting a wall in frustration during his worst start of the season, and will miss four to six weeks. That frustration and the way he deals with it could affect his development in a major way, as immaturity could delay his trip to the majors. That is nothing to worry about quite yet, but certainly something to watch for the future.
What do you know about Eric Byrnes? Don't know if he'll keep it up.
Some have speculated that Byrnes will lose playing time as the season wears on, despite Ken Macha’s recent statement that such a course of action will not occur. More than likely, he will remain in the lineup as long as he continues to produce. He has a solid set of tools, and should provide a decent power-speed combination over the remainder of the year.
Byrnes has solid speed, but needs to receive the green light more. He already has 12 doubles, 4 triples, and 5 homers in only 155 at-bats, displaying excellent extra-base potential out of a relatively young hitter. His over-the-fence power potential is not overwhelming, but is decent for an outfielder. The best of Byrnes has already been seen, but he should continue to provide decent production over the remainder of the season. If given a full season of consistent playing time, he would likely hit around .275 with 15 homers and 20 steals.
I have a prospect that I was thinking would be a good one.
Jonny Gomes, OF, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
He seems to be a guy with a lot of raw power. You know anything about him?
That is definitely accurate, as Gomes does have a solid amount of raw power. However, whether or not that power will be useful is dependent upon how his plate discipline progresses. At the current moment, he has too many strikeouts to be fully effective with his power, and his average is suffering as a result.
Gomes has always been a step or two behind the top outfield prospects in the Tampa Bay organization, which could turn out to be a problem as he continues to advance to the majors. Carl Crawford and Rocco Baldelli will not be giving up their spots in the outfield any time soon, and there is plenty of competition for the remaining outfield spot. Keep in mind that Josh Hamilton will be missing the remainder of the season due to personal issues, and Gomes has an ideal opportunity to make a name for himself over the next few months. This will be his best opportunity to jump to the front of the pack, and the next year will be critical for Gomes to improve his stock. If he is able to work on his plate discipline, he could develop into a solid hitter. Gomes has decent speed, and could steal 10-15 bases in the majors. The best estimate for his average at the major league level would be around .260-.270 based on the talents he has displayed so far, and that number would obviously rise with improved patience at the plate. The biggest plus is his power, which projects to the possibility of 25+ homers in the majors.
Within the next week or two, I will be publishing an issue related solely to the MLB Draft, as the draft is instrumental in providing the minors with a new collection of talent. Be sure to check back for the latest in draft coverage. Which teams had solid drafts and which didn’t? Which players were steals in the first round, and which have a high probability of becoming busts? Did your team make good use of their first round pick, or did they use it to select a player with limited potential? These answers and more in the Draft Review edition of “Prospect Alert.”
Please leave any comments/suggestions/questions using the “comment” feature at the bottom of this page, or feel free to leave a message on the Fantasy Info Central message board. The more feedback provided, the better this column can be devised. In the coming weeks, look for an in-depth look at the league’s top prospects.
Posted by Richie Madden: Jun 5 at 2:26 PM
Fantasy Baseball 
Great Job as always Richie. But I had one follow up question. The way you describe Gomes he sounds similar to Adam Dunn, is that a fair comparison? Does he lack Dunn's power? Obviously he doesn't have the patience Dunn has, but he seems to strike out as much. Thanks!!
Taylor,
That is an interesting comparison, one that I hadn't really considered before. Right now, as you mentioned, there are really two factors separating Gomes from Dunn. One, he isn't nearly as patient. That's really hurting his average, and will continue to do so until that is corrected. I don't think he'll be anything more than a fifth outfielder if that problem is not controlled. Two, his power potential is probably only around 70% of Dunn's overall power potential. Dunn could easily hit 50-60 homers some day, while Gomes would probably top out around 40.
I think Dunn will turn his average around in future seasons, and Gomes certainly has the potential to do so, also. They display similar speed, although Dunn's is a little better. Aside from the walks, Gomes could be a mini-Dunn. It'll all depend on how much patience he adds to the mix.