Prospect Alert
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

2003 Amateur Draft Review

Welcome to “Prospect Alert,” the informative new column with information regarding all aspects of the minor leagues. Throughout the course of this season, we will focus on minor leagues with the goal of informing fantasy players about the minor leagues. From player scouting to specific player breakdowns, this is the place to visit for top-notch minor league information.

This week, we will focus on providing a 2003 Baseball Draft Review. Which teams had solid drafts and which didn’t? Which players were steals in the first round, and which have a high probability of becoming busts? Did your team make good use of their first round pick, or did they use it to select a player with limited potential? These answers and more in the Draft Review edition of “Prospect Alert.”

Most importantly, the draft provides teams with a solid base of young talent with which they can build for the future. Some teams, most notably the A’s, use the draft as the primary means of infusing talent into their organization. For many teams, especially the low-budget organizations, the draft is critical to a successful future.

This leads to discussion of teams that have traditionally successful drafts, and whether or not they were able to sustain that success in this year’s draft. The leading teams in recent drafts have been the Indians, Cubs, and A’s, and all had respectable drafts this year. So far, the Indians and Devil Rays appear to have the top two drafts, but it’s difficult to tell whether or not that will hold true in the future. The A’s used their traditional approach of drafting high-OBP pitchers and polished college pitchers, while the Cubs started the draft on the right foot by drafting athletic OF Ryan Harvey. Neither draft can be overlooked, and both are easily included amongst the top-10 drafts in 2003.

This week, we’ll look at some of the top picks in the draft, and will continue profiling players into next week.

1. Delmon Young, OF, Adolfo Camarillo High School
Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Despite being drafted out of high school, Young is a relatively polished hitter. The Devil Rays are already stacked in the outfield, but that wasn’t enough to keep the Devil Rays from drafting Young. He is a young power bat, much more powerful than his older brother Dmitri, currently with the Detroit Tigers. He has great bat speed and a big frame to generate excellent power. He has a short, compact stroke which generates over-the-fence power. Young projects as a corner outfielder in the future, and appears to be a better fit in left field than right. He is fundamentally sound defensively, but doesn’t have the speed or raw athletic ability to develop into a top defensive player.

2. Rickie Weeks, 2B, Southern University
Milwaukee Brewers

Weeks was once considered the favorite to be the top pick in the draft, but slipped over the past few weeks, partially due to defensive concerns. Offensively, Weeks is a tremendous talent, and projects to be a five-tool player at the big league level. He has an excellent power/speed combination, and has the ability to hit for a solid average, too. He’s quick on the basepaths, which should enable him to rack up quite a few steals in the future. Could develop into a lesser model of Alfonso Soriano in the National League, but will be more patient at the plate. Solid makeup leads many scouts to believe that Weeks has a much higher chance at success than most draftees. In terms of fantasy prospects from the Class of 2003, Weeks is at the top of the list.

3. Kyle Sleeth, RHP, Wake Forest University
Detroit Tigers

Sleeth is arguably the top college pitcher in this year’s class, and easily wins that title if considering solely raw talent. He’s slightly less polished than some college pitchers, but should develop into a successful front-of-the-rotation starter. He has great velocity and solid supporting pitches, and has combined his physical tools with a successful college career. His control has improved over the past year, which is an encouraging sign for the future. The one question that some baseball insiders have pondered is whether or not Sleeth will be susceptible to injury in the future. His throwing motion has led to injury in pitchers with similar deliveries, and a few changes might be needed in order to ensure his long-term health. Still, with his raw talent and past production, Sleeth is the closest pitcher to Mark Prior in this year’s draft.

4. Tim Stauffer, RHP, University of Richmond
San Diego Padres

Stauffer adds yet another talented arm to an organization already rich in young pitching prospects. Stauffer will be on the fast track to the majors, as he is the most polished pitcher in this entire draft class. He could actually reach the majors by mid-2004, but that might be pushing him a little faster than necessary. Either way, Stauffer should be a solid pitcher for many years in the majors. He doesn’t have the raw talent of many pitchers in this year’s class, but is more likely than any of the others to have a long-term future in the big leagues. Expect the Padres to ease his workload this year, as he was overworked a bit this year in college.

5. Chris Lubanski, OF, Kennedy-Kenrick Catholic High School
Kansas City Royals

Many have speculated that this pick was designed to provide a long-term replacement for Carlos Beltran, and that might not be too far off track. However, Lubanski has quite some time before he reaches the majors, and long-term will certainly be the operative phrase in that suggestion. This was a solid pick, especially considering that Lubanski is a high schooler. Most baseball types believe that Lubanski is a relatively safe pick, as he’s played well against upper-level competition in the past and had proven himself during stretches of cold and miserable weather. His makeup is icing on the cake, and further supports the theory that Lubanski is a safe pick. Lubanski projects to hit for a solid average with decent power, and has excellent speed. He is a solid defender, and projects as a center fielder at the major-league level. Nice developmental pick by the Royals.

6. Ryan Harvey, OF, Denedin High School
Chicago Cubs

Harvey might be the most toolsy player in this entire draft, and has a ton of potential. He was considered a possibility for the first overall pick in the weeks leading up to the draft, but a past knee injury might have hurt his stock. Don’t be worried about the knee injury, as that has fully healed and does not appear to be a problem for the future. Harvey is a five-tool player, with excellent power, speed, and arm strength amongst his top qualities. He is a tremendous athlete, and projects as a right-fielder in the future. Obviously, all high school picks are risky, but Harvey’s upside is easily worth the risk. Watch his strikeout/walk ratios in the future, as those might be the only things capable of keeping Harvey from big-league success.

7. Nick Markakis, OF, Young Harris College
Baltimore Orioles

Nearly every team in the draft viewed Markakis as a future pitcher, but the Orioles have decided that his power potential as a hitter was too great to pass up. Quite frankly, this was one of the riskier decisions of this draft, and the Orioles certainly can’t afford to take this risk. They need all the talent they can possibly acquire, and adding a question mark such as Markakis doesn’t make sense. The Orioles believe he will hit for power and average, and he would fit well in right field with his monster arm. There is always the chance that he could switch back to pitching, but at that point it might already be too late.

8. Paul Maholm, LHP, Mississippi State University
Pittsburgh Pirates

Maholm certainly won’t be one of the more exciting prospects to watch climb the prospect ladder, but could eventually develop into a successful pitcher. He is the dreaded “finesse” pitcher, and doesn’t throw hard at all. Maholm has above-average control, and his best pitch is his curve. With four solid pitches, he has a decent chance at sustaining success in the majors. Maholm is not a great major-league prospect, and he was overdrafted by the Pirates. There were better selections still available at this pick, as Maholm simply does not have the potential of many of the other prospects from this draft.

9. John Danks, LHP, Round Rock High School
Texas Rangers

Danks was the top lefthanded pitching prospect in this year's class, but his status as a high schooler worked against him. He has a powerful arm with solid command, so he has a greater chance at success than most high school pitchers. Given that he's a lefty, he will certainly be given every opportunity to succeed. He would've gone higher in most draft classes, but teams are beginning to focus their attention on college pitchers, which hurt Danks' draft status. He will be interesting to watch develop.

10. Ian Stewart, 3B, La Quinta High School
Colorado Rockies

The Rockies played the potential card by selecting Stewart, and could be rewarded if he develops as well as they hope he does. Stewart is reminiscent of a young Eric Chavez, with tremendous power potential but some questions in terms of defensive ability. He should be able to hit for a decent average with plenty of power, but might need to change positions. First base and left field were both pre-draft possibilities, with the first base option obviously nullified by the presence of Todd Helton. Stewart could end up being a tremendous player, or he could be a huge bust. Only time will tell, but he is certainly worth watching.

11. Michael Aubrey, 1B/OF, Tulane University
Cleveland Indians

Aubrey is the most polished hitter in this entire draft, even more than Rickie Weeks. He has a ton of experience and played against top-notch competition in college. In terms of future risk, Aubrey is the safest pick in this entire draft. He will hit for a very high average in the future, and will also supply adequate power totals. As of now, it appears that his home run total will be around 20 per year, which is a little weak from a first baseman. He could move to the outfield, but is excellent defensively at first and will likely stay there. His plate discipline is excellent, and his average will be high enough to warrant keeping Aubrey at first. He has been compared to Sean Casey, but is likely a better long-term option than Casey during his prime. Other comparisons have been made to Jason Giambi and Todd Helton, with less power than either of those. Even if the over-the-fence power doesn’t develop, Aubrey should hit plenty of doubles and spread hits across the entire field. Nobody realistically expected Aubrey to last this long.

12. Lastings Milledge, OF, Lakewood Ranch High School
New York Mets

Milledge slipped quite a bit in this year’s draft, due mainly to off-the-field issues. Makeup issues are often a major concern with many prospects, and have prevented many from attaining stardom. He could end up developing into a solid outfielder in the majors, but will likely need to improve his character in order to succeed. He has the tools to succeed, and challenges Harvey as the most athletic player in this entire class. He projects to be a center fielder in the future, where he will be the top prospect at that position since the Mets had Alex Escobar. Milledge has solid power potential and excellent speed, and played well against tough competition. Watch his plate discipline numbers, as those might become a problem due to some flaws with his swing.

13. Aaron Hill, SS, Louisiana State University
Toronto Blue Jays

Taking to the A’s philosophy of drafting collegiate players, Hill fits nicely into the Blue Jays’ plans for the future. His defense is a concern, which has led to speculation that he would fit in better at second or third. His bat would be fine at either position, and he has the work ethic to eventually be a solid defensive player. He has above-average speed and power to the gaps, and could be ready for the majors faster than most prospects from this class. No matter where he plays, Hill should not have much of a problem reaching the majors in the next few years.

14. Ryan Wagner, RHP, University of Houston
Cincinnati Reds

Wagner is a high-strikeout pitcher, and projects best out of the bullpen. The Reds believe that he will be ready for the majors late-2003/early-2004, and he very well might earn a September callup. His control can be a problem on occasion, but he has a solid fastball and excellent slider. The high-strikeout, spotty-control description tends to favor comparisons to Mike MacDougal, the current closer for the Kansas City Royals. Like MacDougal, Wagner has the ability to start or close, and could end up shifting to a starting role later in his career. Drafting closers is a risky business, but the strikeouts are hard to ignore.

15. Brian Anderson, OF, University of Arizona
Chicago White Sox

Anderson is a risky pick, and didn’t really start producing until 2003. That said, given time and his solid physical tools, Anderson has a chance to develop into a solid outfielder in the big leagues. He is a five-tool player and a plus defender, which will certainly help as he advances through the system. For now, Anderson is more of an athlete than a baseball player, and he’ll need to back up his tools with actual production in order to maintain prospect status.

16. Jeff Allison, RHP, Veterans Memorial High School
Florida Marlins

Allison was a legitimate candidate to go much higher in the draft, but slipped due to signability concerns. He was the top high school pitching prospect in this draft, and for good reason. He has a mid-90s fastball and solid command, with a little less experience than most typical high school pitching prospects. Similar to fellow Marlin Josh Beckett, Allison will take longer than Beckett to develop. An advanced pitcher for his age despite rather limited experience, Allison has the potential to quickly develop into one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Keep an eye on him.

17. David Murphy, OF, Baylor University
Boston Red Sox

Murphy is an experienced hitter and could help the Red Sox rather quickly. He does not have the pure potential of many prospects in this class, but has a great understanding for the game and has plus plate discipline. His defense is solid, and he has a decent power/speed combination. Murphy should hit for a solid average in the bigs, and should be ready for the majors sooner rather than later. He is not a tremendous prospect, but will be a decent hitter for quite some time.

18. Brad Snyder, OF, Ball State University
Cleveland Indians

Snyder is a similar player to David Murphy, and both should be on the fast track to the majors. He came from a relatively small baseball school, which might have hurt his draft status. He has solid speed, power, and plate discipline, all of which make his probability for sustaining success higher than the average draftee. In Cleveland, he may have a hard time rising through the ranks, as outfield depth is rather deep in the organization. If Snyder hits, and most baseball types fully expect that he will, the Indians will be forced to find time for him.

19. Connor Jackson, 3B, University of California
Arizona Diamondbacks

One of the bigger surprises of the draft, nobody really expected Jackson to go this high. In fact, it was a surprise that he was even drafted in the first round. Jackson has great power potential and plate discipline, but he will need to work on the defensive aspect of his game. With Shea Hillenbrand and Chad Tracy both blocking his path at third base, a change-of-position is quite possible. He’s a tough hitter and has power to all fields; offensively, he should have no problem rising through Arizona’s farm system. Defensively, he is more of a question mark, and that might hamper the speed with which he reaches the majors.

20. Chad Cordero, RHP, California State University
Montreal Expos

Cordero was another prospect who was not expected to be drafted in the first round, but management issues undoubtedly forced this selection. Cordero is a solid prospect with a good arm, but he simply is not as talented as some of the other options still available at this pick. He projects best as a closer in the future, and could be the Expos’ long-term solution at that spot. However, as is the case with Wagner, drafting closers is a risky business.

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Note: The remainder of the first round and supplemental first-rounders will be covered in next week’s column.

Please leave any comments/suggestions/questions using the “comment” feature at the bottom of this page, or feel free to leave a message on the Fantasy Info Central message board. The more feedback provided, the better this column can be devised. In the coming weeks, look for an in-depth look at the league’s top prospects.

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