Prospect Alert
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Reader Response, Part V

Welcome to “Prospect Alert,” the informative new column with information regarding all aspects of the minor leagues. Throughout the course of this season, we will focus on minor leagues with the goal of informing fantasy players about the minor leagues. From player scouting to specific player breakdowns, this is the place to visit for top-notch minor league information.

Prospect evaluation can cover a wide variety of players and topics. To help eliminate some of the confusion in terms of prospects, it is best to break down a few prospects that readers have specific questions about. So, if you have any questions that you would like answered, feel free to drop a comment at the bottom of the page, and you will receive an in-depth answer in a future column.

Here are the questions for this week:

What do you know about Alexis Rios? He seems to have come out of nowhere this year in AA. He is top 5 in OBP and SLG.

Rios is a former first-round pick in 1999. He was drafted a bit too high, or at least that was the opinion of many baseball executives. He appears to be proving them wrong now, as he is finally converting his unbelievable athleticism into baseball tools. Rios does not strike out very much, and has started to draw walks at a higher rate. It’s encouraging to see a young kid like Rios develop in the upper levels of the minors, as many prospects crumble when pushed at this rate.

In the future, Rios should continue to hit for a high average. His speed is above-average, but the Blue Jays are unlikely to utilize that trait with their current philosophies. His power will develop eventually, and he’s still quite young. Expect his power/speed combination to produce a solid number of triples, while the doubles and homers will also likely increase down the line.

Do you have any info on Jon Connolly? He’s 12-1 with a 1.06 ERA so far this season. I was just wondering why he’s still on a Midwest (A) league team. Seems like Detroit would be moving him up.

Detroit is taking the conservative path in developing Connolly. He has been lights out, in terms of record, ERA, and WHIP. That is a bit of a change from last season, when Connolly went 5-3, 4.01 in short-season ball. Perhaps a more telling tale was that opponents hit .293 off him, which is quite poor.

The main problem in promoting Connolly is developmental issues. Essentially, this breaks down into two parts. The first is that Connolly is still quite young, and thus, fairly raw. He might be able to hold his own if promoted, but why risk it? At 19, Connolly has plenty of time to develop at a slower pace. Secondly, Connolly isn’t as great of a prospect as his performance might indicate. He was relatively unknown heading into the season, and really only gained “prospect” status recently, due to his early-season success. Basically, Connolly is a finesse guy. He doesn’t throw hard, and doesn’t strike many guys out. He won’t get many strikeouts in the upper-minors, which means that he likely won’t be nearly as successful. Also, he plays in an extreme pitcher’s park. He has received a ton of help due to park features, so his stats are a bit inflated. He’s better off staying in the Midwest League, raising his confidence while working on improving his game, so that he’ll be as prepared as possible for a promotion.

Only time will tell if patience with Connolly will pay dividends in the long-run.

How about SS Sergio Santos, AZ?

Santos is a powerful young shortstop that was the first-round pick of the Diamondbacks in last year’s Amateur Draft. He’s been tearing up the minor leagues this year, hitting for average and power while displaying excellent plate discipline. Santos’ speed is average for a shortstop, and does not project to a high number of steals. The biggest question mark is his defense, which has been viewed by many as inadequate, at best. Those doubters may be right, and a positional change may be in store for Santos.

The biggest plus is his power. He projects to above-average power for a middle-infielder, should he stick at that position for the long-term future. While his position is questionable, his bat is not. He should hit for average and power, with plenty of walks, as he advances through the minors. That’s encouraging news for fantasy owners, as power-hitting shortstops are always at a premium. Having drawn comparisons to Alex Rodriguez, the potential is undoubtedly there. Watch his defense and any positional changes, as those are the only question marks at this point.

I'd like to know about Adam Wainwrigh and Gavin Floyd.

SP Gavin Floyd has received some comparisons to Brett Myers, but Floyd might actually be the better long-term option of the two. He has been solid this season, although he has allowed a few more walks than a future of his caliber should. That is not a major problem, however, and his overall production has been encouraging. Floyd has an above-average fastball, outstanding curve, and an improving changeup. He is mentally-prepared for the psychological aspects of pitching, and has a great understanding of the game. Aside from a few minor adjustments that shouldn’t be hard to make, Floyd has no obvious weakness.

SP Adam Wainwright is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. Underrated by many, Wainwright has been developed in a system that is well-known for its success in developing young pitching prospects. Wainwright picked up this season where he left off last year, having excellent success against opposing hitters. He has three plus pitches: a fastball, curve, and changeup. He could use another couple years in the minors to build up his arm, but Wainwright should quickly develop into the next Atlanta ace.

Prospect Alert’s Advice for the Week:

Most of the readers of this article are fantasy owners, so this is a chance to promote one of the most recent call-ups to the majors. Victor Martinez is the top offensive catching prospect in all of baseball, making him worthy of a roster spot in any fantasy league. While his power has yet to fully develop, he has always hit for a high average and should continue to do so. If he’s available in any league, it would be wise to pick him up. He will quickly develop into one of the best backstops in all of baseball, and his bat is an asset to any fantasy team. Best of all, Martinez will also see some time at first base, which should allow him to rest from catching duties while remaining in the starting lineup. One of the top prospects in all of baseball, Martinez is a great pickup for those in need of assistance at an otherwise shallow position.

It was recommended to me by a member of FIC that a “recent promotions” feature might be a worthwhile endeavor to attempt for this column. Essentially, this would focus on a short synopsis of the most recent prospects to be promoted to the majors, and would be a way for fantasy owners to keep track of any prospects that might be worth adding to their squads. If this interests any readers, or if you believe it would be helpful to your team, please drop a message at the bottom of this page. Also, feel free to leave any other suggestions on ways to improve the column/new features to add.

Some questions were too lengthy to fit into this week’s column( in their entirety) due to time restrictions of the writer. I apologize for any inconvenience, and will fit those questions into next week’s column.

With adequate feedback, next week’s column will be devoted to any questions that readers might have. Feel free to use the specified thread on the message board or the “comment” feature at the bottom of this thread for the best chance to have your question answered. Simply include your question, and leave your name if you’d like it to be mentioned. All questions will be answered, and they can cover any prospect-related topics.

Please leave any comments/suggestions/questions using the “comment” feature at the bottom of this page, or feel free to leave a message on the Fantasy Info Central message board. The more feedback provided, the better this column can be devised. In the coming weeks, look for an in-depth look at the league’s top prospects.

---