Various Updates
July 09, 2003
Welcome to “Prospect Alert,” the informative new column with information regarding all aspects of the minor leagues. Throughout the course of this season, we will focus on minor leagues with the goal of informing fantasy players about the minor leagues. From player scouting to specific player breakdowns, this is the place to visit for top-notch minor league information.
Prospect evaluation can cover a wide variety of players and topics. To help eliminate some of the confusion in terms of prospects, it is best to break down a few prospects that readers have specific questions about. So, if you have any questions that you would like answered, feel free to drop a comment at the bottom of the page, and you will receive an in-depth answer in a future column.
Here is the question for this week:
I'd like to know about Scott Kazmir, Cole Hamels, Zach Greinke, Hanley Ramirez, Casey Kotchman, and Jon Van Benschoten.
Scott Kazmir was the best high school pitcher available in the 2002 June draft. He fell a bit due to contract concerns, but the Mets don’t have much of a problem dealing out money. There is very little not to like about Kazmir, as he has the entire package. Arguably the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, Kazmir will be a dominant force in the majors for many years.
Cole Hamels was the second-best high school pitcher available in the 2002 June draft. Like Kazmir, Hamels fell in the draft, but his drop was due to injury concerns. Those injuries have since healed, although Hamels missed some time at the beginning of the season. One of the top pitching prospects in baseball, Hamels is having an extremely productive season. He has three plus-pitches – a fastball, curve, and changeup – so adjusting to higher levels should not be much of a problem.
Zach Greinke is another 2002 draftee. He is one of the most polished high school pitchers to enter the draft in a long time, and could quickly rise through the system. He has been one of the most dominating pitchers this season, and is quite intelligent on the field. Royals executives have compared Greinke to Bret Saberhagen, who made a rapid ascent to the majors.
Hanley Ramirez has not produced quite as well as last season, but has still managed to post some very solid stats. His power will develop down the line, and projects to be an above-average tool for a middle-infielder. Everything else is already in place, except for plate discipline. If he can double that walk rate, Ramirez could quickly develop into one of the game’s top prospects.
Casey Kotchman is a tremendous pure hitter. He will hit for an extremely high average in the majors, and will also provide some power. His plate discipline is tremendous, as evidenced by his 8:16 K/BB ratio in 100 at-bats this season. If injuries don’t hold him back, Kotchman could very well be one of the best pure hitters in baseball within five years.
John VanBenschoten was viewed by nearly everybody in baseball as an outfielder, until the Pirates drafted him. He has begun to prove the Pirates right, but still has some work to do. Most importantly, he needs to work on his control, which is allowing a few more walks than the ideal rate. VanBenschoten is still a work-in-progress, but could end up as a solid starter in the majors.
Prospect Alert’s Advice for the Week:
Most of the readers of this article are fantasy owners, so this is a chance to critique one of the most recent call-ups to the majors. 2B Bo Hart is a fringe prospect, at best. He does not have any long-term track record of success, nor does he have great physical tools. As a 26-year-old in Triple-A this year, his minor-league stats this year aren’t even very encouraging. Hart is no better than a future utility player, with poor plate discipline, minimal power, and average speed. The numbers simply don’t add up, even this season. Hart has an OBP of .332, which is quite poor. Cardinals fans, if you’re looking for an unknown minor-leaguer with a high upside, take a look at OF Jon Nunnally. He tops Hart in all categories, including speed, power, plate discipline, youth, and an ability to get on base. That’s the underdog worth rooting for.
Productive Prospects
The “Stock Rising” list is back. In this feature, I’ll list the hottest prospects in the game today. This is a new feature that will be tried out a little differently this week, and is similar to the ones featured in many team reports. One list will be created, and these lists will be based on performance over the season as a whole, with the emphasis on the past few weeks. Since performance usually has a great impact on a prospect’s “stock,” we’ll focus on those prospects who have experienced a recent rise in their net worth. This, of course, will represent each prospect’s total overall value to his organization, and how that value has changed due to recent performance. Hopefully these lists will help fantasy owners looking for a gem in keeper leagues, but be sure to check each prospect’s actual statistics after checking this list. These will be a nice guideline, but be sure each player fits your needs before making a quick acquisition.
It is important to note that this list is based primarily on overall performance this season, with the emphasis on the past few weeks.
1. RHP Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
2. 1B Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
3. OF Jeremy Reed, Chicago White Sox
4. RHP Ervin Santana, Anaheim Angels
5. LHP Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
6. OF Gabe Gross, Toronto Blue Jays
7. SS Khalil Greene, San Diego Padres
8. SS Joel Guzman, Los Angeles Dodgers
9. C Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
10. 3B Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox
11. OF Alexis Rios, Toronto Blue Jays
12. RHP Gavin Floyd, Philadelphia Phillies
13. 2B Josh Barfield, San Diego Padres
14. OF Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Inidnas
15. RHP John VanBenschoten, Pittsburgh Pirates
16. RHP Joe Blanton, Oakland A’s
17. RHP Brian Bruney, Arizona Diamondbacks
18. OF Ramon Nivar, Texas Rangers
19. OF Tony Gwynn, Milwaukee Brewers
20. RHP John Maine, Baltimore Orioles
21. 1B James Loney, Los Angeles Dodgers
22. SS Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays
23. RHP Jose Dominguez, Texas Rangers
24. LHP Jeff Francis, Colorado Rockies
25. RHP Chin-Hui Tsao, Colorado Rockies
26. C Dioner Navarro, New York Yankees
27. OF Byron Gettis, Kansas City Royals
28. RHP David Bush, Toronto Blue Jays
29. 3B Jeff Baker, Colorado Rockies
30. RHP Vince Perkins, Toronto Blue Jays
31. RHP Ian Oquendo, Pittsburgh Pirates
32. RHP Trevor Hutchinson, Florida Marlins
33. RHP Clint Nageotte, Seattle Mariners
34. 1B Larry Broadway, Montrael Expos
35. RHP Jesse Crain, Minnesota Twins
36. 2B Jason Bougeois, Texas Rangers
37. LHP Manny Parra, Milwaukee Brewers
38. RHP Richard Thompson, Anaheim Angels
39. LHP Mike Megrew, Los Angeles Dodgers
40. RHP Kazuhito Tadano, Cleveland Indians
It was recommended to me by a member of FIC that a “recent promotions” feature might be a worthwhile endeavor to attempt for this column. Essentially, this would focus on a short synopsis of the most recent prospects to be promoted to the majors, and would be a way for fantasy owners to keep track of any prospects that might be worth adding to their squads. If this interests any readers, or if you believe it would be helpful to your team, please drop a message at the bottom of this page. More than likely, this feature will begin next week. Also, feel free to leave any other suggestions on ways to improve the column/new features to add.
With adequate feedback, next week’s column will be devoted to any questions that readers might have. Feel free to use the specified thread on the message board or the “comment” feature at the bottom of this thread for the best chance to have your question answered. Simply include your question, and leave your name if you’d like it to be mentioned. All questions will be answered, and they can cover any prospect-related topics.
Please leave any comments/suggestions/questions using the “comment” feature at the bottom of this page, or feel free to leave a message on the Fantasy Info Central message board. The more feedback provided, the better this column can be devised. In the coming weeks, look for an in-depth look at the league’s top prospects.
Posted by Richie Madden: Jul 9 at 12:12 PM
Fantasy Baseball 
Seeing as how Mark Prior made such an excellent transition to the Big Leagues, and how the scouts knew he would be great before his first start - what do you think other prospects can learn from his transition. Also, what kind of things do you look for in a prospect to determine whether they will be good or not?
Thanks for the comments.
I'm not so sure that prospects making their big-league debuts can learn all that much from Prior's situation. He's really a rare breed, a prospect who is almost certain to succeed - that's said about many prospects, but isn't quite accurate. Nobody has his combination of physical tools and mental awareness of the game; if nothing else, other pitching prospects can look at his situation to determine how he made such a successful transition to the majors (i.e. pitch types, location, etc.).
As for what I look for in a prospect, check out the first two issues of this column (view archives). There is more information in those two issues than I'd be able to cover in this comment box.
Thanks again.
I would love to see a "promotions" column--especially as teams make deals near the trading deadline for prospects that may be expected to play right away.
JT...Sounds good. I'll try to work something into the column, hopefully starting next week.