Prospect Alert
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Hello, Harden!

Welcome to “Prospect Alert,” the informative new column with information regarding all aspects of the minor leagues. Throughout the course of this season, we will focus on minor leagues with the goal of informing fantasy players about the minor leagues. From player scouting to specific player breakdowns, this is the place to visit for top-notch minor league information.

Heading into the All-Star break, Oakland A’s RHP Rich Harden was the top pitching prospect in baseball. Now, he’s the top young pitcher to reach the major leagues over the past year.

A former outfielder, Harden was forced to attend a junior college after an unacceptable draft placement in the 38th round of the 1999 draft. Harden entered that draft having played mostly as an outfielder, and was selected by the Seattle Mariners. Unfortunately for the Mariners, Harden did not sign and re-entered the draft in 2000, this time as a pitcher. Not surprisingly, the A’s had been watching Harden over the past season, and selected him in the 17th round. The A’s were able to sign Harden in 2001, as a draft-and-follow.

The most impressive aspects about Harden are his pitch availability and psychological approach to his work. Harden has a wide arsenal of pitches. His two best are a mid-90s fastball and devastating changeup, both of which are highly effective. He scrapped his curve a few seasons ago in favor of a slider, which has developed into a solid third offering, and will continue to improve over time. His sinker is a solid fourth pitch, but is a bit inconsistent. Mentally, Harden is more than prepared for the big leagues. He has overcome a wide variety of obstacles, and will continue to do so. Rarely does Harden appear shaken-up after poor pitches, innings, or even entire outings; rather, he is quite effective at working out of jams. An excellent approach to pitching with runners on base was evident in his debut against the Royals, when he worked out of a fourth-inning jam caused by poor fielding. That type of mental ability will surely assist Harden as he continues through the majors.

If Harden is still available in your league, this is the last chance you’ll have to acquire him. The rest of the A’s schedule is relatively weak, and they are the best second-half team in baseball. G.M. Billy Beane would not have promoted Harden if he was not ready, so he is here to stay. It would be quite a shock if Harden were to return to the minors later this season. On top of that, the most obvious advantage with Harden is his pure potential. Based on that alone, Harden is one of the best pitching prospects to reach the majors over the past few seasons.

Recent Promotions

The most recent feature added to Prospect Alert, the “Recent Promotions” section of this report will inform fantasy owners of minor leaguers who were recently promoted to the big leagues. This includes any notable promotion, with a special emphasis put on those minor leaguers who were promoted for their first action in the big leagues. Each prospect will be rated using a five-star system, which will combine a prospect’s present (first rating) and future (second rating) potential. A one-star rating represents the lowest possible rank, while a five-star rating is the greatest. Obviously, these ratings should be compared only to other prospects, as it’s unfair to make comparisons to current major leaguers.

RHP Rich Harden, Oakland A’s *****/*****
RHP Jesse Foppert, San Francisco Giants ***/*****
RHP Ryan Wagner, Cincinnati Reds **/****
SS Bill Hall, Milwaukee Brewers */**

Ryan Wagner was the Cincinnati Reds’ first-round pick out of the University of Houston in the 2003 June Draft, and is the first player in his class to reach the majors. Wagner, the 14th pick overall, will be used in short-relief stints of one inning or less, and will not be used in the closer’s role. However, he projects as a future closer, and could possibly move to the closer’s role later this season if Scott Williamson is dealt. At the very least, he’s a name worth remembering for the future.

Jesse Foppert is back after an unimpressive start in the minors, yet his re-entry into the majors was successful. He showed some of his dominating potential with a double-digit strikeout performance, and hopefully that will be enough to turn things around for Foppert. He will likely hit some rough patches over the remainder of the season, but should develop into a dominating force in the future.

Recent Demotions

Similar to the “Recent Promotions” section of this report, the “Recent Demotions” section will inform fantasy owners of major leaguers who were recently demoted to the big leagues. Only players recently considered “prospects” will be considered for this section, as older players don’t belong in this column. Each prospect will be rated using a five-star system, which will combine a prospect’s present (first rating) and future (second rating) potential. A one-star rating represents the lowest possible rank, while a five-star rating is the greatest. Obviously, these ratings should be compared only to other prospects, as it’s unfair to make comparisons to current major leaguers.

RHP Ryan Drese, Texas Rangers */***
LHP Tony Mounce, Texas Rangers */**

None of the demotions for this week were overly important. These two are the most important of the bunch, but neither was a legitimate fantasy player, anyways.

Prospect Alert’s Advice for the Week:

This advice was given in last week’s column, but it simply cannot be stressed enough. So, instead of expanding upon the prospects making a splash over the last week, this week will be used to drive the point home. This is extremely important, and should be considered before passing judgments on prospects.

Before forming premature judgments on prospects, it is important to go back and look at the credentials and past performance of those prospects that are under consideration. A few weeks, or even months, in the majors is not an accurate time to judge a player, and you’ll be making a big mistake by judging a prospect solely on his performance during that time period. By that token, Bo Hart would appear to be a top-notch prospect, while Jesse Foppert would appear to be a major flop, and future bullpen material.

More accurately, look at the physical tools and past production of a prospect. Check out the first two issues of this column to get a glimpse into forming judgments on a prospect. There is much more to a prospect than his first splash in the majors, and misinformed fantasy owners greatly hinder their future success by making judgments solely on first impressions. Evaluating prospects can be tricky, but if done correctly, it will pay major dividends in the long run, especially in fantasy leagues.

Productive Prospects

The “Stock Rising” list is back. In this feature, I’ll list the hottest prospects in the game today. This is a new feature that will be tried out a little differently this week, and is similar to the ones featured in many team reports. One list will be created, and these lists will be based on performance over the season as a whole, with the emphasis on the past few weeks. Since performance usually has a great impact on a prospect’s “stock,” we’ll focus on those prospects who have experienced a recent rise in their net worth. This, of course, will represent each prospect’s total overall value to his organization, and how that value has changed due to recent performance. Hopefully these lists will help fantasy owners looking for a gem in keeper leagues, but be sure to check each prospect’s actual statistics after checking this list. These will be a nice guideline, but be sure each player fits your needs before making a quick acquisition.
It is important to note that this list is based primarily on overall performance this season, with the emphasis on the past few weeks.

1. 3B Dallas McPherson, Anaheim Angels
2. LHP Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
3. RHP Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
4. RHP Chin-Hui Tsao, Colorado Rockies
5. RHP Ervin Santana, Anaheim Angels
6. C Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
7. OF Ramon Nivar, Texas Rangers
8. 1B Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
9. OF David DeJesus, Kansas City Royals
10. SS Aaron Hill, Toronto Blue Jays

With adequate feedback, next week’s column will be devoted to any questions that readers might have. Feel free to use the specified thread on the message board or the “comment” feature at the bottom of this thread for the best chance to have your question answered. Simply include your question, and leave your name if you’d like it to be mentioned. All questions will be answered, and they can cover any prospect-related topics.

Please leave any comments/suggestions/questions using the “comment” feature at the bottom of this page, or feel free to leave a message on the Fantasy Info Central message board. The more feedback provided, the better this column can be devised. In the coming weeks, look for an in-depth look at the league’s top prospects.

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