Prospect Alert
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Is Tsao worth the risk?

Welcome to “Prospect Alert,” the informative new column with information regarding all aspects of the minor leagues. Throughout the course of this season, we will focus on minor leagues with the goal of informing fantasy players about the minor leagues. From player scouting to specific player breakdowns, this is the place to visit for top-notch minor league information.

Unfortunately, due to personal matters, next week's column will not be published. The column will resume in Tuesday, August 12th.

Prospect evaluation can cover a wide variety of players and topics. To help eliminate some of the confusion in terms of prospects, it is best to break down a few prospects that readers have specific questions about. So, if you have any questions that you would like answered, feel free to drop a comment at the bottom of the page, and you will receive an in-depth answer in a future column.

Here is the question for this week:

Whats your take on Terrmel Sledge?

Terrmel Sledge has received some publicity this year, and he is arguably the top positional prospect in the Expos’ organization. Unfortunately, he is a bit over-hyped, and his statistics this year are a bit inflated.

At first glance, his production this year looks quite impressive. Sledge has an OBP over .400, and has shown solid speed and power. However, it is crucial to note that Sledge is a 26-year-old outfielder, so his stats in Triple-A are quite a bit inflated. There are certainly some positives to consider, such as above-average speed, solid range in the field, and a good eye at the plate. That Sledge has a career OBP slightly over .400 is quite encouraging, and even provides hope that he could develop into a regular, possibly as a leadoff man.

The negatives, however, are too many to overlook. Most scouts see Sledge as a fourth outfielder who can play a little at first base, also. His power, however, is well below-average for a first baseman, so it’s doubtful that he will be able to play there much. At first glance, his speed and range make him a nice fit for center field, but he injured his shoulder a few years ago, which weakened his arm to the point where most believe he could play no outfield position but left field, where his arm would be less of a liability. If the Expos decide he can play there, the power becomes a question mark. While he has managed to add power to his game, it is questionable as to whether that came as a result of increased muscle mass, or simply yet another year in age advantage on his competition. If the power surge is for real, and Sledge is able to continue that trend in the majors, then he’ll fit in nicely as a left fielder. If he’s not able to do so, it’s hard to imagine the Expos giving him the everyday job in center field, although it’s a possibility. At best, Sledge will develop into a solid outfielder in left or center, but he could just as easily develop into a utility outfielder. It all hinges on the Expos’ decision regarding his arm and power potential.

Recent Promotions

The most recent feature added to Prospect Alert, the “Recent Promotions” section of this report will inform fantasy owners of minor leaguers who were recently promoted to the big leagues. This includes any notable promotion, with a special emphasis put on those minor leaguers who were promoted for their first action in the big leagues. Each prospect will be rated using a five-star system, which will combine a prospect’s present (first rating) and future (second rating) potential. A one-star rating represents the lowest possible rank, while a five-star rating is the greatest. Obviously, these ratings should be compared only to other prospects, as it’s unfair to make comparisons to current major leaguers.

RHP Chin Hui-Tsao, Colorado Rockies ****/****
LF Michael Restovich, Minnesota Twins **/***
RHP Juan Cruz, Chicago Cubs **/***
RHP Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers */***
RHP Duaner Sanchez, Pittsburgh Pirates */**

None of these guys stick out very much, and all but one have serious question marks, either with past performance or potential playing time.

Tsao is the lone exception, an enigma. Once considered a top prospect, Tsao was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery in 2001, and didn’t return until the latter part of 2002. He had an excellent season as a 22-year-old in Double-A before his promotion, and is certainly worth watching. Tsao is still quite young, but his stuff is incredible. He has a mid-90s fastball, along with excellent changeup/slider combination. His control is superb, and he would be an extremely hot commodity if he pitched anywhere but Colorado.

Quite honestly, Tsao was set to make this article before his promotion, as an examination of how effective he could be if promoted. That all changed, however, when he got the call. If you can handle the risk and have a spot to spare, this kid is definitely worth a look. His home start was impressive, and one can’t overlook his overpowering numbers in Double-A. Effective Rockies pitchers are tough to find, but Tsao might be one of them. A risky pickup, but this one might be worth it.

Recent Demotions

Similar to the “Recent Promotions” section of this report, the “Recent Demotions” section will inform fantasy owners of major leaguers who were recently demoted to the big leagues. Only players recently considered “prospects” will be considered for this section, as older players don’t belong in this column. Each prospect will be rated using a five-star system, which will combine a prospect’s present (first rating) and future (second rating) potential. A one-star rating represents the lowest possible rank, while a five-star rating is the greatest. Obviously, these ratings should be compared only to other prospects, as it’s unfair to make comparisons to current major leaguers.

DH Justin Morneau, Minnesota Twins */*****
LHP Casey Fossum, Boston Red Sox */***
1B Lyle Overbay, Arizona Diamondbacks */***
OF Xavier Nady, San Diego Padres */***
3B/OF Brandon Larson, Cincinnati Reds */*

Quite a few talented players were optioned over the last week, with Morneau the most significant. The Twins would like to get him regular at-bats, but he could return later in the season. He’s still quite young, and has a great future ahead of him. Fossum’s stock has fallen quite a bit, and he will need to prove himself in the majors. Overbay can usually hit for a high average, but couldn’t even do that in the majors. He, along with Nady, has some work to do. Larson is, at best, a fringe prospect. He is way too old for the minors, which explains his success both this season as last. Seriously, he was 26-years-old during his “breakout” season last year, which makes it not very impressive at all. He gets a one-star rating both now and for the future. Aside from Morneau and Nady, every guy on this list is overrated.

Productive Prospects

The “Stock Rising” list is back. In this feature, I’ll list the hottest prospects in the game today. This is a new feature that will be tried out a little differently this week, and is similar to the ones featured in many team reports. One list will be created, and these lists will be based on performance over the season as a whole, with the emphasis on the past few weeks. Since performance usually has a great impact on a prospect’s “stock,” we’ll focus on those prospects who have experienced a recent rise in their net worth. This, of course, will represent each prospect’s total overall value to his organization, and how that value has changed due to recent performance. Hopefully these lists will help fantasy owners looking for a gem in keeper leagues, but be sure to check each prospect’s actual statistics after checking this list. These will be a nice guideline, but be sure each player fits your needs before making a quick acquisition.
It is important to note that this list is based primarily on overall performance this season, with the emphasis on the past few weeks.

1. LHP Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
2. C Dioner Navarro, New York Yankees
3. C Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
4. LHP Greg Miller, Los Angeles Dodgers
5. RHP Chad Gaudin, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
6. OF Ramon Nivar, Texas Rangers
7. RHP Jose Dominguez, Texas Rangers
8. RHP Zack Greinke, Kansas City Royals
9. RHP Rafael Rodriguez, Anaheim Angels
10. OF Jeff Salazar, Colorado Rockies

With adequate feedback, next week’s column will be devoted to any questions that readers might have. Feel free to use the specified thread on the message board or the “comment” feature at the bottom of this thread for the best chance to have your question answered. Simply include your question, and leave your name if you’d like it to be mentioned. All questions will be answered, and they can cover any prospect-related topics.

Please leave any comments/suggestions/questions using the “comment” feature at the bottom of this page, or feel free to leave a message on the Fantasy Info Central message board. The more feedback provided, the better this column can be devised. In the coming weeks, look for an in-depth look at the league’s top prospects.

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