Prospect Alert
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Rule V Recap

Every year, the Rule V draft hits prospect-laden clubs hard. This year, the Pirates and Indians both lost five players in the draft, leading to a substantial loss of talent for even the deepest of farm systems. We’ll break down each of the picks, but first let’s cover some basics regarding the draft itself.

There are two conditions that must be met for a player to be considered eligible for the draft. One, the player must have spent at least three complete seasons in the minor leagues; however, that becomes four complete minor league seasons if the player was younger than 19 on the previous June 5. Two, the player must not be listed on the 40-man roster, which is generally set in stone by the major league club in the days leading up to the draft.

Any player that meets both requirements listed above is eligible for the draft. If a team decides to select a player during the draft, it must compensate the team that loses the player with $50,000. Additionally, the selected player must remain on his new team’s roster for the entire season after which he is picked; if not, he must be offered back to his previous team for $25,000. Without getting into detailed specifics, a player must spend a certain amount of time on the major league roster, and if that time is met, an “injury” could sideline the player for an extended period of time. Teams often allow their young draftees to stay on extended rehab assignments in order to avoid keeping them on the active roster, yet maintaining control of the player’s contract. Oftentimes, the player selected is raw and inexperienced, so teams will bend the rules to avoid keeping him on the active roster.

Below is a breakdown of each pick (former team in parenthesis):

Tigers – C/1B/3B/OF Chris Shelton (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Shelton can play a variety of positions, and has most recently been tried at third base and outfield. Catcher would be the best fit if his defense was up to par, but that isn’t the case. With the Tigers, he’ll be no more than a deep reserve catcher, as well as a decent bat off the bench. Shelton has impressive plate discipline, and has always produced a high average. The biggest question will be his future position, but he shouldn’t have any trouble cutting it from an offensive standpoint. It is relatively surprising that the Pirates decided to leave him unprotected, given some of the additions to their 40-man roster.

Padres – OF Rich Thompson (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Thompson was originally drafted by the Padres, but will end up in a Royals uniform as the result of a post-draft trade. Apparently, the Royals are rather high on this speedy outfielder, perhaps hoping he can develop into a potential long-term replacement for Carlos Beltran. It’s more likely that he’ll end up as a reserve over the long-haul, as he simply does not have the bat to start on a regular basis. The positives here are the speed and defense, but that simply isn’t enough to warrant much playing time. On top of that, the Royals lost tenth-overall pick Jason Szuminski and cash in the deal.

Devil Rays – RHP Alex Zumwalt (Atlanta Braves)
Zumwalt is a former infielder/outfielder that was converted to pitcher after finding little success at the plate. He is still extremely raw, but turned in an impressive season in 2003. Zumwalt offers a low-90s fastball, along with a solid slider and change. Given a little extra seasoning, he could become one to watch. Typically, these types of players need the experience that comes with extended minor league time, but then again, Tampa Bay hasn’t been very prudent with player development in the past, either.

Mets – LHP Frank Brooks (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Brooks was traded to Oakland after the draft, only months after being dealt from the Phillies in the Mike Williams deal. Brooks should prove to a be a valuable bullpen lefty for the A’s, and it would be a surprise to see him returned to the Pirates at any time during the season. Brooks has been effective in the minors, tops out in the low-90s, and throws a slurve that is devastating to lefties. Should have a solid future as a left-handed specialist.

Brewers – RHP David Bennett (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Bennett is one of the tougher players to evaluate in this year’s draft. There have been concerns that Bennett has been battling shoulder problems, which could be a definite problem area if true. On the other hand, he improved his velocity and performance over the past season, the time span during which the shoulder has been noted as problematic. Bennett has decent breaking stuff and knows how to pitch, so he has a chance of sticking, especially with Milwaukee.

Orioles – 3B Jose Bautista (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Bautista was an interesting selection, not because he was the fifth Pirate selected in the first six picks, but because he is the most talented player chosen. Considered to be one of the Pirates’ top prospects heading into last season, Bautista ended up faltering, partially due to nagging injuries. It is likely that he will be heading back to the Pirates at some point this season, and a return to the minors would certainly prove beneficial. Given his contact/power combination, decent plate discipline, and overall talent level, Bautista could end up sticking in the majors over the long-haul; however, this year likely won’t be the start of that stretch.

Reds – RHP David Mattox (Cincinnati Reds)
Mattox offers a high-80s fastball, slider, curve, and changeup. Luckily for him, his wide variety of pitches helps compensate for the fact that he has no single dominating pitch, and relies quite heavily on control to get the job done. That combination has done the job up to this point, but his performance has gradually weakened as he has climbed the minor league chain, and those types of trends typically don’t reverse themselves. Control pitchers often face tough times at higher levels, but he could stick in a long-relief/spot-starter role.

Rangers – RHP Chris Mabeus (Oakland A’s)
Some scouts like Mabeus, while others don’t see the potential. The true projection is likely somewhere in between, with Mabeus projecting as a future bullpen arm. Perhaps his greatest asset is a mid-90s fastball, which is complimented by increasingly strong control. There is quite a bit to like here if last year is a fair indication of his true talent, and there is a rather high probability that such a theory holds true. Keep an eye on Mabeus, as he should stick and has the potential to make an appreciable difference.

Rockies – LHP Matt White (Cleveland Indians)
White was a Rule V draftee last year by the Red Sox, from where he traveled to Seattle, and eventually back to Cleveland. On his way out again, White has a better chance of sticking this season, if simply because he is playing on a less talented team. Rockies pitchers tend to all look the same anyways. White has a low-90s fastball and excellent breaking stuff; if his command improves, White could be a valuable bullpen arm. Keep an eye on any injury problems that might resurface, along with the control, as this would be a solid pick in any other environment.

Royals – RHP Jason Szuminski (Chicago Cubs)
Szuminski is a groundball specialist if there ever was one, and that alone makes him an intriguing prospect. He throws a low-90s fastball and decent breaking ball, but control has been a significant problem. Szuminski is a very intelligent pitcher, and should be able to straighten out the control issue, if at all possible. Keep an eye on the K/BB ratios, as those will be the best indicator of how much progress he is making.

Expos – INF Andy Fox (Texas Rangers)
This is the same Andy Fox that played for the Marlins last year, the one that couldn’t crack .200. This pick was made primarily for the leadership experience, as his talent clearly wouldn’t make much of a difference on even the most offensively deficient teams. Certainly not a prospect, Fox doesn’t fit the bill of a typical Rule V draftee, as a 32-year-old major league veteran.

Blue Jays – RHP Talley Haines (Tampa Bay Devil Rays)
Haines is a solid pick, even if his repertoire isn’t as impressive as those possessed by other draftees. Haines offers an average fastball, and above-average splitter. His ability to keep the ball down in the strike zone will be his biggest asset in the majors, and it could be enough to earn a spot on the major league roster for the upcoming season. Haines’ ratios over the recent past have been impressive, even without a devastating arsenal, and J.P. Ricciardi has made efficient Rule V pitching selections in the past, all of which make this pick one worth watching.

White Sox – RHP Jason Grilli (Florida Marlins)
Sidelined by injuries for much of the past few seasons, Grilli is the pitching equivalent to Jose Bautista in this year’s draft. Highly talented yet injury-plagued, Grilli could make an excellent comeback story, but he could just as easily fade into oblivion. Either way, the risk assumed by the White Sox in making this selection is extremely minimal, especially considering the overall potential. Grilli is the most talented pitcher in this year’s class, and certainly one to watch.

Cardinals – SS Hector Luna (Cleveland Indians)
Quite frankly, Luna isn’t a very talented player, and it is rather surprising that a team would be willing to select Luna again, after he was unable to stick last year with the Devil Rays. There simply have to be better options available. Luna has great arm strength and impressive range, yet his defense is spotty. His power is average for a shortstop, but he won’t hit for average, at least until his plate discipline is controlled. Right now, he projects as a pinch-runner/late-inning defensive replacement, but he could very easily end up back with the Indians before the end of the season.

Red Sox – LHP Lenny Dinardo (New York Mets)
Dinardo throws a mid-80s fastball, slider, cutter, and change. None of his offerings are anything more than average, yet he has been extremely successful in the minors. His ratios are tremendous for a pitcher with his background, yet the Mets’ front office was never very high on him. It is entirely possible that his poor arsenal will catch up with him, and his production will take a severe hit; however, it is also quite reasonable that he will continue at his current level of productivity. The Red Sox were smart to take that risk, and he makes an interesting story to keep an eye on.

Astros – OF Willy Taveras (Cleveland Indians)
Taveras would be best served serving a few more seasons in the minors, but the Astros like him enough to offer him a potential roster spot during spring training. Taveras is excellent defensively, with tremendous range and a strong arm. Many observers have walked away amazed after watching Taveras in the field, as he is simply overwhelmingly fast. That speed will make him a valuable asset as a pinch-runner off the bench for the Astros, although it is unlikely that he will stick on their roster. His plate discipline is above-average, but power is the big drawback. Hopefully for the Indians, they’ll be able to pick him back up at some point during the season.

Tigers – LHP Mike Bumatay (Colorado Rockies)
Bumatay was a Rule V draftee by the Rockies last year, in the minor league portion of the draft. This year, the tables have turned, and the lefty specialist is headed to Detroit, where he has a solid chance to stick in that role. He has decent velocity and a great breaking ball against the lefties, and has been very productive as a relief specialist.

Rockies – INF Luis Gonzalez (Cleveland Indians)
Gonzalez can play any infield position and has played some in the outfield, but his tools leave something to be desired. He has the ability to hit for a high average and displays impressive plate discipline, but his lack of power relegates him to a reserve role. His versatility and minor-league experience give him a solid chance of sticking with the Rockies, and he has a chance for a prolonged, yet unspectacular, career in the majors.

Red Sox – RHP Colter Bean (New York Yankees)
The Red Sox got the best of both worlds with this selection, stealing a productive minor leaguer from the arch-rival Yankees. Bean is never given much credit as a prospect, yet has posted some phenomenal numbers in his professional career. The biggest drawbacks are a lack of velocity, as evidenced by his low-80s fastball, and an unorthodox delivery which could lend itself to future injuries. Bean is an intelligent pitcher and can manipulate the strike zone, and if successful, it wouldn’t be the first time a pitcher with an awkward delivery made a splash in the majors.

Tigers – RHP Lino Urdaneta (Cleveland Indians)
Urdaneta is an intriguing selection, and his status as the final selection certainly does not make him the least-talented of this bunch. A 24-year-old out of Venezuela, the Indians signed Urdaneta as a free agent from the Dodgers. He has a tremendous arm, but is erratic at times with somewhat shaky control. He has been throwing extremely well as of late, however, and the Tigers might have made a tremendous find with this selection. The talent is there, but consistency will be the key to his success. Watch his progress carefully.

We’re back…”Prospect Alert” is starting back up for the upcoming season, and we’d like to have your comments. If you have any ideas on how to improve the column, or any special features you’d like to see, drop us a line at the bottom of the page or on the board. As always, your feedback is highly valued.

---