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Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

The Keys to Evaluating Positional Prospects

As some of the old-timers to this site might recall, this same article was posted at the beginning of last year. However, due to the addition of some new guests to the site, and the importance of understanding the basics of prospect evaluation, I feel that this needs to be posted once again. The examples listed were based on the 2002 season, so feel free to look up the stats from the 2003 campaign. As could be expected, the basic performance trends of the two players reversed in 2003, with Betemit proving the more productive player even before any adjustments.

This week, the emphasis will be on teaching fantasy leaguers how to evaluate minor league hitters in as few steps as possible. Professional talent evaluators use many of these same techniques, only in greater detail. Shortening the process can lead to accurate results if done correctly, and will give fantasy owners the edge they need to gain that much-desired fantasy championship.

How can this all be done in a time-efficient manner? Well, it’s quite simple. This five-step process will give even the average fan an edge in prospect evaluation.

Step 1: Evaluate the critical averages

Most fans make the mistake of quickly glancing at a player’s batting average as a means of evaluating a prospect, but they’re overlooking a more important statistic. OPS (On-base percentage Plus Slugging) is the most important prospect evaluation tool, as it weighs power, patience, and overall hitting ability. Basically, this sums up a player’s overall performance into one easy-to-read stat line.

OPS is commonly overlooked, but is a more valuable tool than a player’s traditional batting average. The On-base percentage portion of the OPS measures a player’s ability to get on base, while the Slugging Percentage rewards a player for extra-base hits. When dealing with a prospect, it is important to account for total bases as a whole instead of solely home runs, as many prospects initially possess only gap power, which can be measured primarily in doubles and triples. As these prospects rise through the farm system, many of these extra-base hits translate into home runs, thus the added importance for OPS when dealing with prospects.

Throughout the course of this column, we will be comparing two prospects to illustrate the importance of looking beyond the traditional statistics in prospect analysis. The first example is SS Wilson Betemit of the Atlanta Braves’ farm system, while the lesser-known example will be SS John Nelson of the St. Louis Cardinals’ organization.

The OPS of these two prospects for the 2002 season:

Wilson Betemit: .682 OPS
John Nelson: .802 OPS

Also, it is important to consider each player’s batting average, but to a lesser extent. Remember that batting average measures a player’s ability to get a hit, but not necessarily his overall performance or value to his team.

The batting averages for these two prospects for the 2002 season:

Wilson Betemit: .245 AVG
John Nelson: .274 AVG

Looks like a major gap, and it is a significant difference. However, the mistake of many fans is to look at these numbers and feel that these statistics are significant enough to form a validated opinion on a prospect. Unfortunately, this doesn’t tell the entire story.

Step 2: Check the player’s plate discipline

Plate discipline is the most important quality of any prospect. It will either make a prospect, or break him. A few notable prospects who have recently dropped down the prospect lists due to poor plate discipline are Cincinnati OF Wily Mo Pena, New York 3B Drew Henson, and Cleveland OF Alex Escobar. All three were once top prospects, but have found their futures clouded due to a lack of strike-zone judgment.

There are a few general rules of thumb when evaluating a player’s plate discipline. The first is that a player should walk in no fewer than 10% of his at-bats, although that number could be bumped up a few percentage points. Very few players are able to succeed on the big league level without an acceptable number of walks, and patience at the plate has saved the careers of numerous big-leaguers.

On the other hand, a player should walk no strike out in no more than one-fifth of his at-bats. That number fluctuates quite a bit based on positional requirements, with sluggers adding a few more strikeouts and middle-infielders are expected to strike out even less.

The plate discipline statistics of our two players are below-average, but could be worse.

Wilson Betemit: BB in 9.91% of at-bats; K in 23.91% of at-bats
John Nelson: BB in 11.23% of at-bats; K in 25.57% of at-bats

As is clearly evident, both players need to work on cutting back on the strikeouts and adding a few more walks. Neither player has the edge, as the leads of both players cancel out.

Any player with twice as many strikeouts as he has walks should be immediately downgraded. This is quite a serious plate discipline problem, and likely won’t be fixed anytime soon. Likewise, anybody with as many walks as he has strikeouts should be upgraded, as this is a rare tool that is indicative of future success in many cases.

Step 3: Evaluate the speed and power numbers of each prospect

This step is often the first step taken by many fans, but should be one of the last. These numbers can be deceiving, and should be taken with a grain of salt.

Many prospects don’t fully develop until they reach the big leagues, and the prime age for hitters is 27 years old. Therefore, the power and speed statistics of prospects could be different than those expected from the player when he reaches the major leagues.

This makes it important to look at a few different statistics for this step. The most logical would be home runs, but doubles are nearly as important. Not only do many doubles translate to home runs on the big league level, but they are quite important to a team’s success. While home runs should be regarded as superior to other extra-base hits, it is important to consider total bases when evaluating a prospect, not only home runs.

Also, another mistake commonly made is to evaluate a prospect’s speed based on his total number of stolen bases. This is irrational for two reasons:

1) Only 15-20% of a prospect’s minor league stolen base total is likely to ever be reached at the major-league level.

2) Many prospects’ stolen base totals are inflated due to multiple reasons. Many minor leaguers with a high stolen base total are merely products of a certain organization’s minor league philosophy, or of an aggressive manager. Others are simply speedsters that have little chance of succeeding in the major leagues. Another possibility is that many prospects post high stolen base totals, but often are caught stealing quite a bit. This is counterproductive to a team’s success, but is often an overlooked part of statistical analysis.

While an entire column could be devoted to stolen base totals and their translations to the big league level, the bottom line is that the best measurement of speed comes from a scout’s notebook, and not a stolen base total.

Here’s a look at our prospects’ speed and power numbers:

Wilson Betemit: 8-for-13 in steal attempts, 17 doubles, 8 home runs (343 at-bats)
John Nelson: 16-for-19 in steal attempts, 28 doubles, 16 home runs (481 at-bats)

Clearly, Nelson has the edge in all categories. While much of this information is represented in each player’s OPS, it is important to take a closer look at each player’s total base breakdown. Those with few home runs but an excess of doubles are prime candidates to see an explosion in total home runs. This doesn’t seem to be the case with either of these players, but is something to watch for with other prospects.

Another idea is to look at home runs and steals in terms of total at-bats. For example, Wilson Betemit averaged a home run per every 42 at-bats, while John Nelson hit a home run once every 30 of his at-bats.

It is crucial to avoid looking at team-oriented statistics, such as runs and RBI. These statistics are greatly affected by team performance, and can greatly vary from future performance. Some other examples of statistics which are not of much use include sacrifice hits, hit-by-pitch, and sacrifice flies.

Step 4: Look at the numbers in terms of league context

This is the most important step in this entire process, yet is the least-common to be put to into practice. Whether it be laziness, or a lack of prospect evaluation background, most fantasy leaguers overlook this step.

Once all the above information is gathered, there are a few adjustments to make. The first is to adjust the statistics you have calculated in regards to league averages. A .700 OPS is much different from league-to-league, and is best understood as a percentage measured against the league average.

Here is a complete listing of the OPS averages for each of the minor leagues:

Class AAA:
International League: .739 OPS
Pacific Coast League: .777 OPS

Class AA:
Eastern: .740 OPS
Southern: .721 OPS
Texas: .726 OPS

Class A:
California: .741 OPS
Carolina: .702 OPS
Florida State: .698 OPS
Midwest: .691 OPS
South Atlantic: .697 OPS
New York-Penn: .676 OPS
Northwest: .678 OPS

Rookie-Level:
Appalachian: .745 OPS
Pioneer: .746 OPS

Obviously, league averages can be compiled for any statistic. However, since the OPS entails a wide variety of important statistics, and in order to simplify this process, this column suggests to compare only the OPS to the league averages. If desired, comparing other statistical averages is a great idea; however, comparing non-percentage (home runs, doubles, stolen bases) statistics is not advised as these totals often are inaccurate. It is acceptable to calculate homers/steals per at-bat to the league average as these are ratios and will accurately display performance in relation to other players in the same league.

Adjusted to the International League standards (Betemit’s league), here are the adjusted OPS numbers for each player:

Wilson Betemit: .682 OPS
John Nelson: .857 OPS

Here is how to calculate those numbers:

Adjusted OPS = Raw OPS * Average OPS in new league / Average OPS in old league

Betemit’s OPS is the same, as we are comparing both players to the International League standard and his numbers are from that league. However, Nelson’s adjusted OPS was calculated as follows:

.857 (Adjusted OPS) = .802 (Raw OPS) * .739 (Average OPS in new league (International League)) / .691 (Average OPS in old league (Midwest League))

Next, it is important to adjust for age. The following are general guidelines as to where a prospect should be at each step of his minor league career:

Class AAA: 23 years old
Class AA: 22 years old
Class A/A+: 21 years old
Class A-: 20 years old
Rookie-level: 19 years old

Notice that Class A is broken down into three levels: Low-A, Regular-A, and High-A. Leagues on this level are assigned into one of the three aforementioned categories, based on level of difficulty. For reference purposes, here are the breakdowns of the Class-A leagues:

High-A:
California
Carolina
Florida State

Regular-A:
Midwest
South Atlantic

Low-A (Short-season):
New York-Penn
Northwest

The adjustment that is suggested for age differential is to add/deduct 10% off each prospect’s statistics for being above/below the recommended age for each level of the minor league system. For example, a 23-year-old in Class AA should have his OPS deducted by 10%, as he has an unfair advantage on the competition. Likewise, a 21-year-old in Class AAA should be given a 20% increase in his overall statistics, as he has been forced to overcome adversity and play against tougher competition than others of his age group.

With the age adjustments factored in, here are the final OPS numbers for each of our prospects:

Wilson Betemit (20-years-old in Class AAA, 30% increase): .887 OPS
John Nelson (23-years-old in Class A, a 20% decrease): .686 OPS

Now, this may seem a bit drastic, but has worked quite effectively in the past. The 10% increase/decrease factor is flexible, and can range anywhere from 5-10%. However, a 20-year-old is only promoted to Class AAA if he is a sensational prospect, and he shouldn’t be penalized for playing against tougher competition. Likewise, a 30-year-old in Class AA shouldn’t be rewarded for excellence, as he is playing against talent that is 8-9 years younger than he. It is important to increase/decrease these statistics by no more than 30%, as anything greater results in an inaccurate result.

Proof that such an adjustment is realistic has been recently provided by Betemit in winter ball. He has posted an .817 OPS with Escodigo, playing against some decent competition but not as strong as that of Class AAA. Clearly, Betemit’s statistics were partially deflated due to injury. However, that didn’t play a huge factor, and the adjustment made for age has accurately portrayed the actual OPS that would be expected from a player of his caliber.

Also, like the league adjustments, this adjustment can be made for any statistical average that has been calculated for prospects.

Step 5: Evaluate other sources and scout prospects

This step isn’t necessary, but can lead to a greater understanding of a minor leaguer’s true talent. It is important to realize that statistical analysis of past performance is only 70% of prospect evaluation, while the other 30% is skills analysis.

Most importantly, each prospect needs to be evaluated based on his physical strengths and weaknesses. Past performance is a nice indicator of what a player will do in the future, but many prospects break out later in their careers due to a high level of physical aptitude. Knowing which players fit this category can greatly help in deciding which prospects have the brightest futures.

The key is to look for players with as many of the five tools as possible: hitting for average, hitting for power, running, fielding, and throwing. While the latter two seem unimportant in fantasy terms, they often can play a big part in a prospect’s development. Organizations are much more likely to advance a prospect who is talented defensively, and are often inclined to hold back the prospects who fail to develop with the glove.

The first three tools are most important in fantasy terms, and often translate to valuable fantasy production. When evaluating prospects, those with exceptional hitting ability should be moved up the prospect rankings, even if their physical skills haven’t yet translated to production. Be sure to keep an eye on those who can hit for a high average with a good eye, but don’t put too much weight into a player’s running ability. Extra stolen bases are nice, but accurately guessing which prospects will provide them is nearly impossible.

In Summary….

While this entire process may seem a bit lengthy, it really only takes a matter of minutes per each prospect. This is time well-spent, and can easily give fantasy owners an edge on the competition.

It is possible to calculate a player’s expected major league performance based on his minor league track record. This topic is quite lengthy and was too detailed to discuss in this edition of “Prospect Watch.” However, if interest is shown in such a topic, a future article will be devoted to this theory.

Expect to see the top prospects around the league featured in future columns, along with tips on which prospects should be watched in fantasy drafts for this coming season.

Next week, we will feature the art of evaluating pitching prospects. Hope you enjoyed this week’s column, and we would be grateful for any comments left at the bottom of this page or on the message board. Any questions regarding this column or the prospects in general will be answered, and may even be given expanded coverage in future columns. This, too, will be a reprint from last year.

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