Prospect Alert
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

Spring Impressions

Spring stats are only truly useful if taken in the correct context. Some of the most overrated spring statistics tend to be those of younger players, with fantasy owners attempting to get a read on the potential of certain prospects based on a few weeks of rather meaningless competition. We’ll try to separate the contenders from the pretenders, and point out the prospects who should be legitimately considered for fantasy teams.

Listed are players with rookie status (maximum 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched), ignoring service time.

Real Deal

C Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
Mauer has plenty of potential, and his only true weakness can be described as his current lack of power. Mauer should soon be one of the best at his position. Considered by most as the top-hitting prospect in baseball, Mauer has excelled in every category except the long ball. The power should come as he develops, and he showed signs of driving the ball better late last season. His defense is solid, so the typical trend of young catchers to focus on defense rather than offense does not apply in this scenario. Mauer is a legitimate threat to hit .300+ with 20 homers down the line, numbers that most catchers will never come close to touching. As late as he’s been selected in many drafts this spring, Mauer provides a nice value pick at a rather weak position.

SS Bobby Crosby, Oakland A’s
Crosby is the long-term replacement to the departed Miguel Tejada, and his spring performance has helped make up for that loss. Crosby hit .345-7-15 in 58 spring at-bats, with the home run total placing him in a tie for second in baseball. Crosby provides a nice power-speed combination, but his stolen base total will likely be minimal on a sabermetric-oriented A’s squad. A nice addition in the later rounds, Crosby could easily win the AL ROY award, and should be productive for the next decade.

RP Ryan Wagner, Cincinnati Reds
Wagner is currently the setup man for closer Danny Graves, but that could change at any point with Graves currently on the trading block. Wagner has nasty stuff, and could rapidly develop into one of baseball’s top closers. Keep an eye on his role, as Cincinnati has also toyed with the idea of sliding Wagner into a starting role. He absolutely dominated this spring, posting a 0.61 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, and 1:1 K/IP ratio.

SS Khalil Greene, San Diego Padres
Greene appears to be the favorite for the NL ROY award, but that is partially by default - there simply aren’t very many talented rookies that appear poised for a big impact in the National League. Regardless, Greene is one to watch for the future, and could make a decent splash somewhere down the line. His tools are rather limited, which will hold back his home run and stolen base total, but his average should be decent – somewhere around .275 is a safe bet. The upside here is limited, but major offensive production isn’t really expected out of shortstops.

Not Quite There

SP Matt Riley, Baltimore Orioles
Riley was a top prospect a few years back, but laziness and injuries caused his ranking to slide substantially. He appears to be back, and could soon develop into a front-line starter. He struck out greater than a batter per inning last season, quite impressive for any pitcher, especially one that recently returned from major surgery. His spring performance was solid, but his K/BB ratio (16:14 in 20 IP) will need to be improved before he can be counted on as a solid starter. If he gets that control issue under wraps – and he showed no signs of it being a problem during the past season – then his stock could skyrocket. He’s likely a year or two away from making his true impact, which makes him worth watching.

SP Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians
Lee hit a few tough breaks with injuries last season, and never received a fair opportunity until the end of last season. He’ll open the season as the Indians’ number three starter, and could surprise some with his performance this year. Considered one of the better young arms in baseball, Lee is likely another couple years away from developing into a front-of-the-rotation starter, but he projects as a potential No. 2 on a very deep staff.

C Gerald Laird, Texas Rangers
The recent trade of Einar Diaz to the Expos has opened the starting role for Laird, who earned additional playing time with a strong spring. Laird has nice pop and solid speed for a catcher, although contact hitting will likely never be his strong suit. Now that he’s the full-time starter, he could be worth watching in leagues that require teams to start two catchers. His spring stats (.407-1-16 in 27 at-bats) are worth noting, but be wary of prolonged slumps.

1B Adam LaRoche, Atlanta Braves
LaRoche has been thrown into the starting role for the Braves, but he could see his production slip over the second half of the season. His defense is excellent, so there shouldn’t be any distractions in that sense, but his offense needs some further development. LaRoche should be able to hit .270 and approach 20 homers, but those numbers aren’t all that impressive from a first baseman. He hit .290-3-12 in 62 spring at-bats, which is slightly above the pace that can be reasonably expected during the regular season.

2B Aaron Miles, Colorado Rockies
Miles won the starting job over Damian Jackson earlier this spring, but his performance (.268-0-6 in 71 at-bats) was quite poor. Playing half his games in Coors should help, but it’ll take a lot more than homefield advantage to turn Miles into a legitimate fantasy option. His minor league numbers – all of which were fairly impressive – were likely inflated due to his age, which clouds his potential for future improvement. He lands in this category due to the Coors Effect, but he could very easily lose his job early in the season.

OF Terrmel Sledge, Montreal Expos
Sledge is a bit of an enigma. His minor league stats are all solid, but his performance was overvalued due to his old age for the league. He was never given much of a chance in the past, and this season doesn’t appear as though it will be an exception. He’ll open the season as the starting left fielder, but only because Brad Wilkerson will move from the outfield to first base while Nick Johnson is on the DL. Once Johnson returns, Sledge will most likely return to the bench, unless he posts lights-out numbers. The potential appears to be there, and he deserves the opportunity. The only question is when that opportunity will arise.

SP Sergio Mitre, Chicago Cubs
Mitre will step into the rotation to fill the void left by Mark Prior’s injury, but he isn’t much of an option for any fantasy league, even as a short-term stopgap. While his minor league stats are solid, Mitre has been hit hard in his brief major league action, including this spring. His 5.66 ERA and 1.75 WHIP aren’t very reassuring, and his 1:2 K/IP ratio could use some improvement. Things could turn around, but it’s more likely that it will take Mitre another couple years to figure out major league pitching. He’s not worth owning at this point.

We're back on a regular schedule with the start of the regular season, so check back next week for more prospect analysis!

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