Prospect Alert
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

One Month In

A few weeks ago, we took a look at some of the top prospects and made predictions on how they would perform this season. With more than a month in the books, some reasonable conclusions can be made regarding the accuracy of those theories.

Here’s a look back at the past predictions, with updates provided.

Real Deal

C Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins
.750 OBP (only 4 at-bats)
Mauer got off to a hot start, but it was a bit too small a sample size to get a true read on his overall performance. Mauer was placed on the DL on April 7 with a torn meniscus in his left knee, and was expected to miss four to six weeks at that time. However, Mauer has stated that there is still discomfort in that knee, and May 20 is considered to be a potential target date for his return, albeit an optimistic one at that.

SS Bobby Crosby, Oakland A’s
.250 OBP, 3 HR, 29 K in 68 at-bats
Crosby is struggling a bit at the plate, which is both surprising and disappointing. The typical adjustment to the majors certainly applies, and he’ll turn things around eventually. His plate discipline has really gone downhill, which is discouraging. Give him a few more weeks, as things certainly can change in a hurry.

RP Ryan Wagner, Cincinnati Reds
21 H/7BB/5K (9 IP)
Wagner’s struggles are the most surprising of any player on this list, after his lights-out performance towards the end of last season. Wagner has allowed 21 hits in only 9 innings of work, which is certainly indicative of more than just poor defense on the Reds’ part. Danny Graves’ closers role is quite safe now, as he’s done considerably better than Wagner.

SS Khalil Greene, San Diego Padres
.361 OBP, 9 2B, 2 3B
Greene was considered the front-runner for NL Rookie of the Year heading into the season, and that certainly hasn’t changed yet. He’s making solid contact and producing plenty of extra-base hits. That gap power likely won’t translate into over-the-fence power in the short-run, but his solid play has provided a nice spark to the Padres offense.

Not Quite There

SP Matt Riley, Baltimore Orioles
19/14 K/BB, 1.74 WHIP, 5 HR in 20 IP
Riley’s biggest problem has been control, which is evident in both his high walk and home run allowed rate. He has a tendency to scatter pitches across the plate, and that includes leaving a few floaters up in the zone. With better command, Riley would be considered one of the brighter young pitchers around. Until that changes, he remains a talented prospect with control problems, a fairly common profile amongst younger pitchers.

SP Cliff Lee, Cleveland Indians
20/17 K/BB, 3.14 ERA, 1.53 WHIP
Lee is one of the Indians top youngsters, and a season similar to the one he’s posting now would not be a surprise. Expect the WHIP to decrease as he sharpens his control, but the ERA will likely end up closer to 4 than 3. He’s still a year or two away from making his true impact felt, but he’s definitely worth watching.

C Gerald Laird, Texas Rangers
.400 OBP, .803 OPS
Laird has made the most of his opportunity with the departure of Einar Diaz, and seems to have solidified his spot in the lineup for quite some time. He’s a solid defensive prospect with speed, making for an interesting combination. If his bat holds up, Laird could be worth owning in mixed leagues; for now, he’s a decent option in AL-only leagues.

1B Adam LaRoche, Atlanta Braves
.279 OBP, 1 HR, 1 K per every 4 at-bats
LaRoche has been a bit of a disappointment. His power was expected to be a bit lacking, but his on-base percentage has been much lower than usual. He’s striking out a bit too much, and hasn’t done much offensively. He’ll be fine over the long haul, but that won’t happen until the plate discipline returns to past levels.

2B Aaron Miles, Colorado Rockies
.297 OBP, 11/2 K/BB
Miles was considered a decent sleeper heading into the season, both in terms of positional scarcity and home-field advantage. His weak spring was a sign that he could struggle early on, and that appears to be the case. His strike-zone judgment has been pitiful, and he hasn’t shown much power, either. He’s waiver-wire material, until proven otherwise.

OF Terrmel Sledge, Montreal Expos
.236 OBP, .538 OPS
Sledge has been pitiful, and is in danger of losing nearly all playing time in the coming weeks. Nick Johnson is still on the DL, but his return will move Brad Wilkerson back to the outfield. That will likely leave a significant dent in Sledge’s playing time. In his defense, the Expos offense has been pitiful as a whole; however, that’s simply more the reason to dump him.

SP Sergio Mitre, Chicago Cubs7.86 K/9IP, 1.59 WHIP, 5.13 ERA
Mitre has been about as bad as could have been predicted. He’s had a few solid starts, but his performance over the course of an entire season would likely see a WHIP and ERA similar to the one he has displayed thus far. Mitre has no fantasy value.

We're back on a regular schedule with the start of the regular season, so check back next week for more prospect analysis!

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