Morneau Advances to the Majors
May 25, 2004
The big news of the past week is that the Twins have promoted 1B/DH Justin Morneau to the majors, ending his streak of appearances in “Prospect Alert.”
Morneau replaces the injured Shannon Stewart on the big-league roster. The initial reports out of Minnesota stated that Morneau would split time with Mike Ryan, but it would make more sense to give Morneau a regular starting spot in the lineup. Thankfully, that appears to be the true scenario, as Morneau played in each of the three games since his promotion.
Morneau hit .356-10-29 with 13 doubles and excellent plate discipline during his brief minor-league stint this season. Considering his power/contact potential, Morneau has a good chance to produce and stick in the majors. Be warned, however, that popular belief states that Morneau will return to the minors within the next couple weeks, when Stewart is ready to return from the disabled list. If he’s productive early on, and all signs point to that being the case, expect Morneau to stick around for a while – this time for good.
Sizzling Stars
We’re going to continue our new feature this week, which may or may not run regularly in the future. The general idea is to get readers introduced to some of the productive prospects in the game. So, we’ll pick two hot prospects, one well-known and one not so popular.
Here it goes…
The Popular One
SS BJ Upton, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
.375-5-11, 1.194 OPS, 3 SB
Upton is the Devil Rays’ best prospect, and for good reason. He’s one of the premier talents in the minors, due to his overwhelming set of tools. Those tools have helped Upton turn in one of the most productive seasons so far, displaying his ability to hit for both contact and power while maintaining his composure on the basepaths.
Upton is the best middle-infield prospect in the minors, superior to even Milwaukee’s Rickie Weeks. Scouts often talk about five-tool talent, and Upton advances above and beyond that label. He possesses excellent speed and hitting abilities, and his defense is much better than the stats would indicate. Upton has a tendency to remain prone to high error totals, but that should improve with time, and is due in large part to his unbelievable range in the field, which is undoubtedly a positive trait, not a negative.
Upton recently received a promotion to Triple-A, where he should continue to hone his skills. That’s really quite remarkable, considering he’s still only 19 years old. Given his track record and skills, Upton could receive some seasoning in the majors later this season, but would be best served sticking around the minors for a while longer, and competing for a starting spot no earlier than spring training 2005.
The Unknown
OF Chris Roberson, Philadelphia Phillies
.308-6-22, 5 3B, 7 SB
Roberson is one of the truly unheralded prospects starting to produce up to full potential. A talented athlete, Roberson has demonstrated surprising power this season – in terms of both triples and homers. Considered to have an ultimate home run ceiling somewhere in the teens, Roberson has begun to break down that assumption, leading to speculation that perhaps the power will continue to develop as he advances through the organization. The Phillies have actually been emphasizing a contact-first approach with Roberson, which further adds to the mystery of the developing power.
The biggest plus for Roberson is speed. He’s already hit five triples on the season, and his stolen base total should continue to rise. He’s actually faster than the current steals total would indicate; unfortunately, poor base-running technique has put a hamper on that total. He stole 59 bases last season, and could steal 30-40 if given an entire season in the majors.
Defensively, Roberson is an asset. He’s quick in the field and has a plus arm. His range is above-average, and he can quickly cover anything hit to the gaps. Roberson is a little old for his current competition, but his sudden development of power will place him on many prospect radars.
We’re back on a regular schedule with the start of the regular season, so check back next week for more analysis!
Posted by Richie Madden: May 25 at 3:10 PM
Fantasy Baseball 
Upton competing for a starting job in 2005? I realize the guy is only 19 years old, but Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, and others who have starred in the middle infield have arived at the same age. Upton is ripping AAA pitching as we speak. Tampa isn't exactly the New York Yankees. I guess what I am trying to say is that he is ready now. I am sure Lou can live with some defensive weaknesses to have his spark in the lineup.
Sean,
It's true that a few young prospects have reached the majors and are met with immediate success, but that's not usually the case.
For every Paul Molitor, there are plenty of guys like Betemit, Berroa, and Phillips. All those guys were promoted relatively early, and none were immediately ready for the majors.
Even Robin Yount got off to a rough start, and he really wasn't very productive in his first several seasons. His OBP didn't top .335 until his ninth season. Actually, his first five seasons all hovered around a .300 OBP with minimal power and 15 steals - if anything, he was a liability more than an asset.
Could Upton succeed if promoted immediately? Sure, it's quite possible. However, far more similar prospects flop upon that initial promotion than succeed, and it would be ridiculous to harm his future potential in order to take a chance on immediate returns. He's 19, moving very quickly, and needs extra time in the minors.
Additionally, how much of an upgrade could Upton represent? He wouldn't improve upon Lugo's power numbers, and the averages would likely be very similar. Lugo has slumped a bit lately, but Upton would certainly have his ups and downs; actually, he could be a huge flop altogether.
Honestly, I'm not sure that they'll keep the starting job from him until next year. He very well could be rushed, but I feel that's the wrong decision. Consequently, my comments are more along the lines of what I feel should be done, not necessarily what will be done. I don't think it's worth jeopardizing Upton's future to give him a chance at helping a season that's already lost hope for a playoff bid.
Thanks for the comments!
Richie....Many of the players that have struggled upon being called up were ready defensively, and were called upon to learn at the plate. Phillips was excellent in the field, but terrible at the plate.
I just think that Upton arriving in Tampa would offensively help a struggling club. I am not talking about replacing Lugo, who is having a fine season. I think that the right move here is to move Lugo to 2B. Release Sanchez, and let B.J. get his shot. I am sure Upton can top Rey's 1 RBI so far this season. Afterall, if we are going to let Upton get more experience in the minors until Tampa is more competetive, He will spend the rest of his career in AAA. It will take more starting pitching, and more B.J. Upton's to make the Devil Ray's an option in the AL East.
Lou does have history of developing young players at the major league level.
Sean,
From my perspective, it's not really a matter of whether or not he would help the big-league ballclub; rather, it's whether or not he's ready for the majors.
You're right - many of those guys listed were ready defensively. Unfortunately, Upton draws mixed reviews in that department, with excellent raw skills but high error totals. He'd represent a definite downgrade defensively, but that's not really a concern.
More importantly, there's a good chance that he's not ready offensively. Sure, the minor league numbers suggest he is, but the same held true for Phillips, Berroa, and Betemit (I'll stick with the same examples as earlier). Both Berroa and Betemit jumped from Double-A to the majors, after crushing minor league pitching. Both were thought to be ready, as they both appeared to be dominating enough to adapt to the majors. And both flopped, both in the majors and when they returned to Triple-A. Luckily, Berroa has recovered (last year, at least), but Betemit has remained a flop. In both cases, they were two years older at that point in their careers than Upton is now. Phillips had been tearing up Triple-A pitching (again, he was two years older at that point than Upton is now), proceeded to advance to the majors, and flopped both in the majors and during his return to Triple-A.
I guess the main point is that potential major-league experience isn't worth jeopardizing Upton's future. Most five-tool talents appear to be ready for the majors when they're initially promoted, but the majority of those really aren't. Given Upton's age, and relative lack of experience, it's safe to say that extra time in the minors certainly would be beneficial, rather than harmful. For every Molitor, there are plenty of Younts, Phillips, Berroas, and Betemits.
The safe play is to allow Upton to develop, at least until September, in the minors. Let him compete for the starting job next year, with extra experience under his belt.
As always, thanks for the comments! I always appreciate a little debate.
Richie.... I do agree with letting a player develop in the minors, but don't you think that Piniella's track record with younger players can help here? I know Lou has got to be getting impatient with the lack of offense. I want to switch subjects for a minute. Dallas McPherson....... I am wondering why Anaheim didn't call him up when Glaus went down. I know Dallas strikes out more than to be desired, but his numbers were consistent with Kotchman's. With the addition of Mondesi, the Angels can now move Figgins to 3rd, so this arguement is mute. I see McPherson as a potential 30 HR player. What is your take on him?
Sean
Sean,
You're absolutely correct in stating that Pinella does have a nice track record with younger players. I agree that his presence would undoubtedly help Upton through the process of adjusting to the majors. We'll see how that whole situation pans out.
As for McPherson, he's still in the minors simply to get some additional polish. He has plenty of upside, especially in terms of power potential - I agree that 30 home runs is a realistic target. The biggest problem with McPherson is defense, where he's considered to be an average fielder. He's working hard on that area to improve, and he has a plus arm, so that problem should subside with time. Aside from that, it would be a definite positive for him to cut back a bit on strikeouts, although I'm not overly concerned due to a relatively large number of walks. His power potential is superb, and he should display above-average speed and contact ability for a third baseman. He's tough as nails and will work hard to improve. Overall, McPherson is an excellent prospect, easily one of the top three third basemen in the minors.
Kotchman got the initial call to replace Erstad just a few days before Glaus went down to the shoulder injury. The Angels were undoubtedly reluctant to promote him, but simply didn't have the depth to contend with the rash of injuries that they were hit with. Luckily, DaVanon's hot hitting allowed the Angels to move Figgins over to third in an attempt to replace Glaus, while Kotchman covered Erstad's former position at first. In an ideal situation, both Kotchman and McPherson would have spent the first part of the season in Double-A, later advancing to Triple-A, and perhaps earning a September promotion. Figgins isn't the prototypical third baseman, but his numbers are solid and he provides a nice spark to the offense, so McPherson should be able to stick around the minors for most of the regular season, at least until September.
The Angels are extremely lucky, with rights to the best first-third prospect tandem in baseball. Throw Mathis into the mix, and that infield could be one of the best in baseball before long.