Prospect Alert
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

MLB Draft Preview

June 26th Update: I apologize for the delay in publishing the latest issue of "Prospect Alert." A few things have arisen around home that needed to be addressed and limited the time I had available to write a new column. While a draft column would be a little late, the next article might still be centered on reviewing the draft picks. I plan on releasing the next edition on Tuesday, June 29th and hopefully resuming the regular schedule from there on out. Thanks for your patience!

The annual amateur draft is quickly approaching, and teams are scrambling to finalize their draft boards. We’ll take a quick look at some of the best prospects in this year’s draft, which takes place June 7th and 8th (next Monday and Tuesday).

The general trend of this draft points towards a large number of pitchers being selected in the early rounds. The draft has plenty of polished college pitchers, including a trio of Rice University standouts. Other trends include a large number of shortstops – not unusual considering many shortstops switch positions in pro ball – and solid catching depth in the middle rounds.

Here are a few of the names that are worth watching in this week’s draft, separated into sections. Listed here is just a brief overview, so I’ll be breaking down the draft in the next issue.

High School Positional Players

SS Chris Nelson, Redan High (Georgia)
Nelson has drawn comparisons to Brandon Phillips and B.J. Upton, and it’s easy to see why. He’s got a great swing, producing a high average, and projects to develop above-average power for a middle infielder. Nelson had Tommy John surgery in the fall, but made a full recovery and actually has a plus arm. Defense is thought to be his best tool, which is scary when one considers the progress he’s made with the bat.

SS Matt Bush, Mission Bay High (California)
Bush is an excellent defensive player, but draws mixed reviews offensively. His contact ability has been questioned by some executives, while others feel he will adapt to professional baseball offensively. Bush has solid speed and throws in the mid-90s as a pitcher, so he could always convert back to pitching should he fail offensively. His defense could be enough on its own to lift Bush to the majors, as he is excellent with the glove and has the strong arm to make all the necessary throws. Also a plus are his intangibles, partially attributable to his days as a pitcher.

OF Dexter Fowler, Milton High (Georgia)
Much like Nelson, Fowler is a superior defender who has made great strides with his offensive game over the past year. A great athlete, Fowler’s best attributes are his speed and strong arm. Offensively, Fowler still needs some work, and that could cause him to fall into the middle- to late-first round; however, correcting holes in his swing and realizing his raw power potential would automatically throw Fowler into blue-chip status.

High School Pitchers

RHP Homer Bailey, La Grange High (Texas)
Bailey is a high-risk selection, but he’s my favorite prospect in this year’s draft. He is easily the most talented high school pitcher in the draft, with a mid-90s fastball, great curveball, and excellent command. His numbers were overwhelming (17 HA, 9 BB, 157 K in 66 IP), and he has the repertoire to back it up. His poise is that of a college pitcher, even though he likely won’t ever advance onto that level. Bailey might have the highest ceiling of any player in this draft, but the “right-handed high school pitcher” label lowers his draft status, due to the risk associated with any player fitting that criterion.

RHP Philip Hughes, Foothill High (California)
Hughes had two major plusses: a mid-90s fastball and solid control. He’s got a solid frame, and can throw any pitch for a strike, allowing approximately one walk every other game. Hughes will never be an overpowering pitcher, despite his relatively high velocity. Hughes lacks movement on many pitches, and his mechanics could use a little work.

RHP Mark Rogers, Mt. Ararat High (Maine)
Rogers is a solid athlete, and it shows in his performance. Given his current location, it’s no surprise that he was a relative unknown up until this season. Rogers throws a mid-90s fastball, along with a deceptive curve and changeup. His across-the-body motion can be a bit jerky at times, which could lead to injury concerns down the road.

College Positional Players

SS Stephen Drew, Florida State University
Drew is a five-tool talent, with strong suits in both his offensive and defensive game. Offensively, Drew projects as a high-average, solid plate discipline prospect. Defensively, he’s solid, but some scouts would like him to move to second or center. The biggest negative, being the brother of J.D. and Tim, is the injury history. Additionally, some question his work ethic and motivation. Despite these concerns, Padres G.M. Kevin Towers has stated that he will likely select Drew with the first overall selection in this year’s draft.

OF B.J. Szymanski, Princeton University (New Jersey)
Szymanski is a talented athlete with five-tool potential. He’s still quite raw in terms of baseball skills and has plenty of growing to do, but he’s smart and coachable. His speed and arm strength are both well above-average, and he shows above-average raw power potential. He has some holes in his swing, which could lead to some initial struggles in the majors, but his long-term potential appears bright, given his tremendous tools.

1B Mike Ferris, Miami University (Ohio)
Ferris bulked up over the offseason and the result was a dramatic increase in his power totals. One of the best power hitters in the draft, Ferris also has great plate discipline, walking twice as often as he struck out. Ferris has below-average speed and average defensive ability, but his combination of power and plate discipline make him well worth the investment.

College Pitchers

RHP Jared Weaver, Long Beach State University (California)
Weaver was once thought to be a sure-fire number one pick, but contract concerns could have had a part in lessening that label. Weaver has been compared often to former college star Mark Prior, and their college stats are even fairly comparable. However, Weaver is a step behind Prior was at this point in his development, and Prior has the higher upside overall. Highly advanced, Weaver is potentially the closest to the majors of any draftee from this year’s class.

RHPs Jeff Niemann, Philip Humber, Wade Townsend, Rice University (Texas)
Each of the Rice trio has something unique to offer, and all appear to have solid careers in the works. Niemann has the highest potential, Humber is the safest pick, and Townsend has front-of-the-rotation or closer potential. They’ll likely be selected in the order listed, with Niemann a possibility to go as high as number two overall, to the Tigers.

LHP Jeremy Sowers, Vanderbilt University (Tennessee)
Some might remember Sowers from the 2001 draft, when he was the Reds’ first overall selection. He didn’t sign, and went on to serve as a successful college pitcher. His best attributes are his command and makeup, so it’s no surprise that many overlook a solid repertoire of pitches. Sowers throws a high-80s fastball, slider, curve, and changeup. Control is the key to each of those pitches, as none is overwhelmingly powerful. Sowers should not be a signability concern this time around.

Unfortunately, the draft takes place on publication date next week, so it’s likely that “Prospect Alert” will be next released as a special issue somewhere around the June 11-13 weekend. That issue would serve as a draft recap, and would account for both the June 8th and June 15th issues.

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