Prospect Alert
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers

MLB Draft Review, Part I

First off, let me apologize for the delay in posting this most recent issue. I've had some issues to work out that have consumed much of my time over the past few weeks. I hope such a delay will not occur again, and I apologize to those who patiently waited for the next column to be released. Also, please note the new release day for "Prospect Alert" (Sundays).

The annual amateur draft has passed, with plenty of uncertainty and excitement trailing in its wake. Contract issues led to the demise of a couple presumed top picks, while a general lack of top talent caused the rest of the class to slide all across the mock drafts in the days leading up to the real deal.

Here’s a rundown of the first half of the amateur draft, complete with pick listing and description:

1. Padres: SS Matt Bush (Mission Bay HS)
Bush is an excellent defensive player, but draws mixed reviews offensively. His contact ability has been questioned by some executives, while others feel he will adapt to professional baseball offensively. Bush has solid speed and throws in the mid-90s as a pitcher, so he could always convert back to pitching should he fail offensively. His defense could be enough on its own to lift Bush to the majors, as he is excellent with the glove and has the strong arm to make all the necessary throws. Also a plus are his intangibles, partially attributable to his days as a pitcher. Another big concern is his recent arrest stemming from a bar incident in Peoria, Arizona, where Bush was arrested on three misdemeanors after allegedly entering into an altercation with bouncers at the bar. The Padres are currently looking into voiding his contract as a result of his arrest.

2. Tigers: RHP Justin Verlander (Old Dominion)
Verlander was one of the top prospects into the draft heading into this season, but his stock slipped a little bit with a somewhat disappointing campaign. Fortunately, the Tigers still held Verlander in high esteem, selecting him second overall. Verlander has great stuff and is close to the majors, which puts him on a major-league ETA of sometime in the second half of 2005. Command is the weak spot with Verlander, but his fastball has topped 100 MPH, and he possesses front-of-the-rotation material.

3. Mets: RHP Philip Humber (Rice University)
Humber was one of the three Rice aces selected early in the first round, and he’s the safest of the bunch. He’ll likely move through the system in a hurry, and could be ready to help the big-league rotation at some point next season. He’s polished with solid command, and throws a fastball, curve, and splitter. Humber fits in best as a middle-of-the-rotation type,

4. Devil Rays: RHP Jeff Niemann (Rice University)
Despite facing an ongoing recovery from arthroscopic surgery on his pitching elbow last fall, Niemann posted some impressive numbers. He throws a mid-90s fastball and devastating slider as plus pitches, and has top-of-the-rotation potential. Niemann could move fairly quickly through the system, but he needs a little more refining than the pitchers selected ahead of him.

5. Brewers: RHP Mark Rogers (Mt. Ararat High School)
Rogers is a solid athlete, and it shows in his performance. Given his current location, it’s no surprise that he was a relative unknown up until this season. Rogers throws a mid-90s fastball, along with a deceptive curve and changeup. His across-the-body motion can be a bit jerky at times, which could lead to injury concerns down the road. A few teams considered Rogers the best high school pitcher in this year’s draft, and apparently the Brewers were amongst them.

6. Indians: LHP Jeremy Sowers (Vanderbilt University)
Some might remember Sowers from the 2001 draft, when he was the Reds’ first overall selection. He didn’t sign, and went on to serve as a successful college pitcher. His best attributes are his command and makeup, so it’s no surprise that many overlook a solid repertoire of pitches. Sowers throws a high-80s fastball, slider, curve, and changeup. Control is the key to each of those pitches, as none is overwhelmingly powerful. Sowers should not be a signability concern this time around. The Indians have loved Sowers for a few years, so it’s not much of a surprise that he was the selection here.

7. Reds: RHP Homer Bailey (La Grange High School)
Bailey is a high-risk selection, but he’s my favorite prospect in this year’s draft. He is easily the most talented high school pitcher in the draft, with a mid-90s fastball, great curveball, and excellent command. His numbers were overwhelming (17 HA, 9 BB, 157 K in 66 IP), and he has the repertoire to back it up. His poise is that of a college pitcher, even though he likely won’t ever advance onto that level. Bailey might have the highest ceiling of any player in this draft, but the “right-handed high school pitcher” label lowers his draft status, due to the risk associated with any player fitting that criterion. The Reds made a great selection here.

8. Orioles: RHP Wade Townsend (Rice University)
Townsend is the final Rice ace to be selected, but being slotted as the eighth pick in the draft really isn’t such a bad thing. Townsend is viewed by many scouts as a future closer, which is likely the reason that he ended up as the last Rice standout to get the nod. He has a plus fastball and curve, but his changeup has been an area of concern. If he’s unable to develop a quality third pitch, his future role will be one in the bullpen.

9. Rockies: SS Chris Nelson (Redan High School)
Nelson has drawn comparisons to Brandon Phillips and B.J. Upton, and it’s easy to see why. He’s got a great swing, producing a high average, and projects to develop above-average power for a middle infielder. Nelson had Tommy John surgery in the fall, but made a full recovery and actually has a plus arm. Defense is thought to be his best tool, which is scary when one considers the progress he’s made with the bat. The Rockies got a ridiculous talent for the ninth overall pick, as Nelson could easily end up as one of the best at his position.

10. Rangers: RHP Thomas Diamond (University of New Orleans)
Diamond is a solid power-pitching prospect out of Louisiana. His fastball is his best pitch, and his mid-90s velocity overpowered college hitters over the past few seasons. The biggest problem could result when Diamond is forced to face tougher, more experienced competition. His fastball by itself won’t be enough to dominate the opposition, and the rest of his pitches need work. If he’s able to straighten out any two of his slider, curve, and changeup, he’ll develop into a very solid pitching prospect. The slider looks like a somewhat safe bet to come around, but the other two are questionable options, at best.

11. Pirates: C Neil Walker (Pine Richland High School)
Walker was easily the best catching prospect, and it’s easy to see why. Defensively, Walker is already fairly well developed. He’s a solid signal-caller with above-average intangibles, and his arm is slightly better than average. Offensively, he shows solid raw power potential, and should end up hitting for a solid average, also. Catching prospects are always a crapshoot, but Walker looks like he might be a keeper.

12. Angels: RHP Jared Weaver (Long Beach State)
Weaver was once thought to be a sure-fire number one pick, but contract concerns and questions over his true talent ceiling dampened those expectations.. Weaver has been compared often to former college star Mark Prior, and their college stats are even fairly comparable. However, Weaver is a step behind Prior was at this point in his development, and Prior has the higher upside overall. Highly advanced, Weaver is potentially the closest to the majors of any draftee from this year’s class. Weaver slipped as far as anyone in this draft (financially, at least), so he has something to prove to those teams that bypassed him.

13. Expos: LHP Bill Bray (William & Mary College)
Well, at least he’s close to being ready for the majors. Much like last year’s top pick, Chad Cordero, Bray is a solid, experienced bullpen arm. Bray could easily be the first prospect in this year’s draft to reach the majors, and his stuff isn’t all that bad. His fastball and slider are both solid, plus pitches. Bray’s delivery has been questioned by scouts, as it could lead to future injury, but sometimes awkward deliveries help keep opposing hitters off balance, especially if they don’t see the same arm on the mound for more than one trip around the order. Bray doesn’t have a brilliant upside, but he is one of the safer bets to make at least a moderate impact in the short-term future.

14. Royals: 1B/3B/OF Billy Butler (Wolfson High School)
Butler is one of the most impressive power prospects in this year’s draft, and that should help balance out the defensive questions in his game. Butler’s old position, third base, doesn’t seem like it will be a logical fit down the line, so a move to first or corner outfield is expected. He has solid pitch recognition but needs to work on his patience in order to draw more walks. Butler has drawn comparisons to Matt Williams and George Brett in terms of his power potential and build, both of which are a bit far-fetched at this point, especially considering that Butler was a fairly significant reach at this spot. Butler is a hit-or-miss type of pick, but if he hits, it could be a big boom.

15. Diamondbacks: SS Stephen Drew (Florida State)
Drew is a five-tool talent, with strong suits in both his offensive and defensive game. Offensively, Drew projects as a high-average, solid plate discipline prospect. Defensively, he’s solid, but some scouts would like him to move to second or center. The biggest negative, being the brother of J.D. and Tim, is the injury history. Additionally, some question his work ethic and motivation. Unfortunately for Drew, his signing bonus demands as the presumed top pick were slightly over those mandated in MLB’s “expected bonuses,” and thus the Padres opted for Bush over Drew. The rest is history.

Expect the second half of the review in the next issue...

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