A Look Ahead
October 02, 2004
Sorry for the delays, folks. I had quite a bit going on for me on various levels, and got bogged down with some issues that needed to be addressed before I could devote myself to this column. I apologize for any inconvenience this might have caused any of my readers.
The season is drawing near an end, but the minor leagues have already finished. It seems fitting to review some of the top prospects in the minors, in an attempt to get an early read on the top prospect lists for 2005.
Without any further ado, here are the top pitching and hitting prospects for 2005:
Positional Prospects
1. OF Delmon Young, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
.320/.386/.536, 25 HR, 21 SB – 513 at-bats (Single-A)
Young is clearly the top positional prospect in the minors, and the stats seem to verify that opinion. There is no real weakness in Young’s offensive game; his strikeouts are the closer to “problematic” than any other part of his game, but even those aren’t all that bad. Young should hit for power and average, and has deceptive speed. He’ll never be a top base stealer, but he could steal 5-10 a year in the bigs.
2. 1B Casey Kotchman, Anaheim Angels
.368/.438/.544, 11 2B, 3 HR – 114 at-bats (Double-A)
.372/.423/.558, 22 2B, 5 HR – 199 at-bats (Triple-A)
Kotchman is a pure offensive player, displaying the ability to hit for a high average with excellent plate discipline. He could stand to be a bit more patient, but his average is so high that it might not make a difference. The problem with Kotchman is that he’s not overly powerful, but he could hit 20 homers a year down the line. Kotchman is a pure contact hitter, the best of his breed in the minors.
3. 3B Dallas McPherson, Anaheim Angels
.321/.404/.660, 17 2B, 20 HR – 262 at-bats (Double-A)
.313/.370/.680, 19 2B, 20 HR – 313 at-bats (Triple-A)
McPherson might not stick at third, but if he does, he could easily serve as the replacement for Troy Glaus. In fact, McPherson may well be an upgrade over Glaus, perhaps even a significant one of he should live up to his potential. McPherson isn’t quick and his defense is questionable, but he should hit for both average and power as he climbs the ladder. McPherson could be ready for the majors next year, and don’t be surprised to see him replace Glaus as the starter in 2005.
4. OF Grady Sizemore, Cleveland Indians
.287/.360/.438, 8 HR, 15 SB – 418 at-bats (Triple-A)
Sizemore barely qualifies for this list, and likely won’t by the end of the season. However, he is one of the most exciting young players in the game, and could develop into a five-tool threat. Sizemore has already demonstrated the ability to hit for average and will continue to develop power, and his speed makes him a threat on the basepaths. Defensively, Sizemore has the arm and range to make an impact in center, transforming him into an all-around threat.
5. 1B Prince Fielder, Milwaukee Brewers
.272/.366/.473, 29 2B, 23 HR, 11 SB – 497 at-bats (Double-A)
Fielder was one of the top prospects in baseball at the start of the season, and did little to dispel that notion over the course of the season. The son of former Tiger standout Cecil Fielder, Prince has tremendous power potential in the mold of his father. He was young for Double-A, yet managed to hold his own. It would be nice to see a little bump in the average, especially considering he still has a few steps to make before the majors, but his ability to draw walks compensates for that concern.
6. OF Jeremy Reed, Seattle Mariners
.275/.357/.420, 8 HR, 12 SB – 276 at-bats (Triple-A – White Sox)
.305/.366/.455, 5 HR, 13 SB – 233 at-bats (Triple-A – Mariners)
Reed was shipped from the White Sox to Mariners in the midseason deal for Freddy Garcia, and he has reacted well to the move. Reed has excellent plate discipline, drawing enough walks and striking out less often than he walks. He wouldn’t normally be quite this high on the list, but many top prospects struggled and failed to live up to expectations this past season, while Reed played quite well. Expect Reed to audition for a starting spot next spring, which will make him worth watching as a potential late-round draftee in fantasy leagues.
7. 2B Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee Brewers
.259/.366/.407, 35 2B, 6 3B, 8 HR, 11 SB – 479 at-bats (Double-A)
Weeks had a fairly disappointing season, but it’s important to remember that he was young and inexperienced for the Double-A level. Weeks struck out too often (107 times in 479 at-bats) and got caught stealing more often than he was successful, both of which are fairly concerning, with the strikeouts presenting more of a problem. The extra-base potential was evident, and Weeks is expected to develop into an above-average power threat for a middle infielder. Next season should be an improvement for this potential-laden top prospect.
8. 3B Andy Marte, Atlanta Braves
.269/.364/.525, 28 2B, 23 HR – 387 at-bats (Double-A)
At first glance, many would consider Marte’s season a little disappointing. However, Marte battled ankle injuries throughout the season, and still managed to post solid numbers. He draws enough walks, but could stand to cut back on the strikeouts, as he struck out more than one in every four at-bats in 2004. Assuming a return to full health, Marte could get back on the fast track to the majors, and could be ready for a late-season appearance in the majors in 2005.
9. 1B Jason Stokes, Florida Marlins
.272/.345/.513, 26 2B, 23 HR – 394 at-bats (Double-A)
Placing Stokes in this slot might be a bit of a risk, considering his injury history, but his power potential is too great to ignore. Stokes suffered yet another wrist injury this season, which limited his at-bat total and likely limited his total production when he did play. If Stokes could ever stay healthy for an extended period of time, he would have the potential to develop into one of the better first basemen in baseball.
10. OF Franklin Gutierrez, Cleveland Indians
.302/.372/.466, 24 2B, 5 HR – 262 at-bats (Double-A)
.148/.179/.296, 11 K – 27 at-bats (Triple-A)
Gutierrez has one of the highest power ceilings of all prospects, although it really only showed in the form of gap power this season. Gutierrez struggled in a brief promotion to Triple-A, but faired very well in his time at Double-A. He had his season ended early due to an elbow injury, but remains one of the more promising prospects in the minors.
Pitching Prospects
1. LHP Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
3.42 ERA, 49 H/22 BB/51 K in 50 IP (Single-A – Mets)
1.73 ERA, 16 H/9 BB/29 K in 26 IP (Double-A – Mets)
1.44 ERA, 14 H/11 BB/24 K in 25 IP (Double-A – Devil Rays)
Kazmir had a busy season, pitching for three different minor-league teams and the big-league club for the Devil Rays. Kazmir came over to the Devil Rays in the trade for Victor Zambrano, a deal that easily favored the Devil Rays. Kazmir hit some rough spots in the majors, but dominated Boston twice. Expect Kazmir to earn a spot in the big-league rotation next spring, which would make him worth watching for fantasy leaguers.
2. RHP Gavin Floyd, Philadelphia Phillies
2.57 ERA, 93 H/43 BB/94 K in 114 IP (Double-A)
4.99 ERA, 39 H/9 BB/18 K in 30 IP (Triple-A)
Floyd struggled a bit after a late-season promotion to Triple-A, but he remains one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Floyd has the potential to develop into a top-of-the-rotation starter, and doesn’t have any huge flaws in his game. Floyd could use some polishing, but should start next season in Triple-A and could potentially even challenge for a spot in the major-league rotation.
3. LHP Jeff Francis, Colorado Rockies
1.98 ERA, 73 H/22 BB/147 K in 113 IP (Double-A)
2.85 ERA, 35 H/7 BB/49 K in 41 IP (Triple-A)
Francis had an absolutely dominating season, and the only thing holding him back now is his future destination in Colorado. Francis was somewhat effective in his major league debut, meaning he could win a spot in the majors in Spring Training. Keep an eye on him, but remember that he will be pitching in Colorado, which is never reassuring news.
4. LHP Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
1.13 ERA, 10 H/4 BB/24 K in 16 IP (Single-A)
Elbow problems limited Hamels for most of the season, but when he pitched, he was dominating. Hamels is still a few years away from developing into a legitimate major-league option, but he’s pitched very well in the minors and has the potential to develop into a solid big-leaguer. Keep an eye on his elbow, because if it heals properly, Hamels could end up at the top of this list in 2005.
5. RHP Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
2.74 ERA, 85 H/26 BB/114 K in 92 IP (Single-A)
3.30 ERA, 47 H/21 BB/58 K in 57 IP (Double-A)
Hernandez really climbed the charts in a hurry, as he got off to a torrid start in Single-A. He ended the season with some control problems that didn’t really show towards the start of the season, but he remains a great prospect for the future. Hernandez is only 18-years-old, so he has plenty of time to grow and was playing against much older competition in both leagues.
6. RHP Merkin Valdez, San Francisco Giants
2.52 ERA, 30 H/5 BB/44 K in 35 IP (Single-A)
4.32 ERA, 35 H/15 BB/31 K in 41 IP (Double-A)
7.20 ERA, 6 H/4 BB/5 K in 5 IP (Triple-A)
Valdez had shoulder troubles that forced him to miss the first couple months of the season, but he was able to return in June and dominated. Valdez had some struggles towards the end of the season, but he was climbing the ladder quickly and has plenty of potential. Valdez would be a good fit as a top-of-the-rotation starter, and could also fit into the back of the bullpen.
7. RHP Ervin Santana, Anaheim Angels
3.30 ERA, 41 H/18 BB/48 K in 43 IP (Double-A)
Santana suffered through a series of injuries that hampered his development, but he pitched well when healthy. Santana will attempt to gain some experience in fall ball, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if injury problems continue to hold him back. Wait until next season and watch his progress from there, as any success this fall would simply be an added bonus.
8. Jose Capellan, Atlanta Braves
1.94 ERA, 27 H/11 BB/62 K in 46 IP (Single-A)
2.50 ERA, 53 H/19 BB/53 K in 50 IP (Double-A)
2.51 ERA, 33 H/15 BB/37 K in 43 IP (Triple-A)
Capellan was impressive at every stop, and could be ready to make the next step as early as the start of next season. Expect Capellan to get an opportunity to earn a spot in the big-league rotation as early as Spring Training 2005, as he’s demonstrated the ability to make a smooth transition advancing to higher levels of competition throughout his minor league career.
9. RHP Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
1.86 ERA, 58 H/17 BB/89 K in 72 IP (Single-A)
3.35 ERA, 73 H/40 BB/72 K in 86 IP (Double-A)
Cain is only 19 years old, yet pitched well beyond his years in 2004. He wore down a bit towards the end of the season, but that’s understandable for a young, inexperienced pitcher going up against older competition. Cain should start next season in Double-A, perhaps Triple-A if he impresses during Spring Training.
10. RHP Clint Everts, Montrael Expos
2.49 ERA, 67 H/21 BB/103 K in 90 IP (Low Single-A)
2.25 ERA, 16 H/10 BB/19 K in 20 IP (High Single-A)
Everts made great strides this season, posting solid numbers across the board. His lack of control after the promotion can likely be written off as anxiety, and his numbers over the course of the season (122 K/31 BB in 110 IP) are very solid. Everts is young and has plenty of time before he reaches the majors, but he’s one to watch for the future.
Posted by Richie Madden: Oct 2 at 3:31 PM
Fantasy Baseball 
"3. 3B Dallas McPherson, Anaheim Angels
.321/.404/.660, 17 2B, 20 HR - 262 at-bats (Double-A)
.313/.370/.680, 19 2B, 20 HR - 313 at-bats (Triple-A)
McPherson might not stick at third, but if he does, he could easily serve as the replacement for Troy Glaus. In fact, McPherson may well be an upgrade over Glaus, perhaps even a significant one of he should live up to his potential. McPherson isn't quick and his defense is questionable, but he should hit for both average and power as he climbs the ladder. McPherson could be ready for the majors next year, and don't be surprised to see him replace Glaus as the starter in 2005."
from what I've seen in the playoffs mcpherson looks ready for the majors.
if he doesn't play 3rd, what are his other position options?
from what I've seen in the playoffs mcpherson looks ready for the majors.
if he doesn't play 3rd, what are his other position options?
McPherson has worked to improve his defense, and its possible that he'll stick at third. However, there's also been consideration given to a position change, and he would be a good fit at either first or corner outfield. Given the fact that Kotchman is also one of the best prospects in baseball, the best bet for a position change will be corner outfield.
The knock on McPherson defensively has always been range; as a former college pitcher, his arm is well above-average. That would make McPherson a good fit in right field, and he'd also fit in left. In a sense, it would be a waste of his arm if he were to move to first base, which doesn't seem like a logical switch anyways.
Offensively, he has tons of power and can hit for average, too. However, he draws just an adequte number of walks and strikes out far too often. He has loads of offensive potential, but could struggle for a while in the bigs if he doesn't sort out the plate discipline concerns.