The Path to ROY
March 11, 2005
Welcome back to another season of “Prospect Alert.” It’s been awhile since our latest update, but things should start kicking back up again as the season approaches. Check back for updates throughout the season. Best of luck goes out to all owners for the 2005 season.
This week, the focus is on the top candidates for Rookie of the Year. However, this article will twist the typical view on that award a bit, instead grouping both leagues together and considering the rookies from a purely fantasy-based standpoint. In other words, what follows is a listing of the top rookies for fantasy leagues in 2005.
The important thing to remember is that hitting prospects are far more likely to step into a new situation and succeed. An occasional gifted pitcher can make a big splash upon entrance to the bigs, but in general, rookie positional prospects are safer bets to succeed than pitching prospects. Thus, there is an excess of positional prospects throughout this list, particularly at the top.
1. OF Jeremy Reed, Seattle Mariners
Reed is one of the top prospects in baseball, and he’ll show fantasy owners why in 2005. A solid prospect in most aspects of his game, Reed’s plate discipline will be his greatest asset heading into his first full season in the majors. Reed is fast, hits for average, and will develop more power down the line. For this season, .300-10-25 wouldn’t be asking too much, and that’s good enough to put him at the top of this list.
2. OF Nick Swisher, Oakland A’s
Swisher is well-known for his role in Moneyball, and that could push his value higher than is truly warranted. Swisher’s biggest assets are his power and plate discipline, but don’t expect a high average. Swisher will likely develop into one of those players who is more valuable in real life than fantasy leagues, as he takes a ton of walks but fails to hit for a high average. A 20-homer season is realistic, but don’t ask for much more.
3. 2B Chris Burke, Houston Astros
Burke takes over for former Astros 2B Jeff Kent, who left for the Dodgers. Burke has been recently mentioned in trade rumors, notably one involving Mets OF Mike Cameron, but expect Burke to stay put. Burke can hit for average and steal plenty of bases, along with a few homers. His numbers last year were inflated a bit in the hitter-friendly PCL, but he was still very impressive. Expect a relatively high average, plenty of steals, and some power – which sounds rather attractive from a weak position.
4. 3B Garrett Atkins, Colorado Rockies
Atkins’ weakness is his defense, but that’s really only a problem if it prevents him from earning playing time. That said, Atkins is the favorite to win the Rockies’ third base job, and he is helping his cause with a strong spring. Coors Field is a big plus, as is the natural hitting ability that Atkins displays. It wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see Atkins at the top of this list by year’s end.
5. 2B Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White Sox
Iguchi is a wild-card on this list, a talented middle-infielder who enjoyed success during his career in Japan. His numbers in Japan would easily be enough to land at the top of the list, but few international players have been able to make a smooth transition to the majors. Iguchi has plenty of speed, and has the potential to hit for a high average with some power. The most likely scenario, however, would be a projection for a moderate season: .270-12-15.
6. 3B Dallas McPherson, Los Angeles Angels
McPherson has dropped quickly, thanks to a back injury that will cost him 2-to-4 weeks. If healthy, McPherson could have a huge season for a rookie. His strikeouts are troubling, but McPherson possesses high power/average/run production potential, and is even a little quicker than most corner infielders. The strikeouts would likely drop his average a bit, but McPherson projects as a possible top-tier fantasy player for the future.
7. C JD Closser, Colorado Rockies
Closser is sitting atop the Rockies depth chart, making him an intriguing selection heading into the season. He’s been disappointing so far this spring, but fantasy owners are enamored with the Coors Field effect. He was productive last season, and has .300-15+ potential, enough to warrant interest.
8. SS Jason Bartlett, Minnesota Twins
Bartlett isn’t guaranteed the starting spot by any means. But there is a very good chance he’ll get the job, and that makes him worth watching in most leagues. His real competition will come from SS Juan Castro, and while both players are having solid camps, Bartlett has twice as many at-bats. At any rate, Bartlett should get an opportunity at some point this season, even if it isn’t at the beginning of the year. He’s speedy and can hit for a high average, but will likely begin at the bottom of the order if he wins the job.
9. RHP Gavin Floyd, Philadelphia Phillies
Floyd is currently sitting sixth on the Phillies’ depth chart, but could easily bump up one or more slots to make the rotation. Vicente Padilla’s shoulder tendonitis should be enough to land Floyd in the rotation to start the year, and he could easily stick around. Floyd was impressive in his spring debut, striking out 4 in three innings of work, and stranding two. One of the best young arms in baseball, Floyd has some sleeper potential this season. Temper any expectations for the youngster, as young pitchers typically take a while to develop, and he is pitching in a hitters park.
10. OF Joey Gathright, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Gathright has been proclaimed the next Carl Crawford, and the injury to Rocco Baldelli opened some room in the outfield. Unfortunately for Gathright, the team signed Danny Bautista, who is projected as the started in right field. That means Gathright will need a stellar spring to earn a regular starting spot; luckily, Gathright has excelled while Bautista has stumbled out of the gates. It’s still early, but a strong case could be made that Gathright, and not Bautista, deserves the additional playing time, which would make Gathright a great sleeper heading into the season.
11. 1B Casey Kotchman, Los Angeles Angels
Kotchman isn’t a lock for playing time, but it stands to reason that if he hits as he has in the past, that the Angels will be forced to create playing time for him. Kotchman isn’t the projected starter at first, but one would have to believe that Kotchman would be the better option. Kotchman will also have the opportunity to win some playing time at DH, although that spot is extremely crowded for the Angels. Expect a high average and some power from Kotchman, but playing time will dictate his fantasy value.
12. SS Clint Barmes, Colorado Rockies
Barmes isn’t a spectacular prospect, but he does lots of little things to provide value. He could hit .300-10-15, possibly a little better, which is more than enough from middle infielder. He’s had a moderate spring, and he’ll be playing in Coors, which is enough to make Barmes one to watch for 2005.
13. LHP Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay Devil Rays
Kazmir is a very risky selection for 2005, but makes this list on tremendous pure talent. He throws in the mid-to-upper 90s, strikes out at least a batter an inning, and has been absolutely dominant at times. The downside is a high walk rate, which will make him inconsistent until corrected. Kazmir has been dominant in 4 2/3 innings of work this spring, aside from the 4 walks he has allowed. He is too much of a gamble to rely on for this season, but provides a nice high-risk, high-potential option for speculative owners.
14. SS Russ Adams, Toronto Blue Jays
Adams has solid on-base skills, a starting spot, and a decent power/speed combination. He’s still at least a year away from making a true fantasy impact, but he could provide a solid average with a little power and speed. Expect Adams to start the season at the back end of the order, but he could eventually end up in the leadoff spot, due to his above-average plate discipline.
15. SS JJ Hardy, Milwaukee Brewers
Hardy has been hampered by shoulder injuries that cost him most of the 2004 season, which puts a damper on the expectations for this upcoming season. Hardy has plus-power potential for a shortstop, but he will take some time to develop. The starting job is his to lose, but lack of experience and injury concerns give Hardy only minimal value at this time.
Posted by Richie Madden: Mar 11 at 5:13 PM
Fantasy Baseball 
Thanks. Always appreciate the feedback.
Wright is not rookie eligible. The cutoff is 130 at-bats in the bigs, and Wright had 263 last year.
As for Francis, I like him as much as any pitcher on the list, talent-wise. Unfortunately, he's in Colorado and that bumps him just off the list.
Here's a little bit of an elaboration on why I ranked Kazmir where I did:
Kazmir could be dominant, but there's too many questions for me to rank him any higher. First, as I mention at the start of the article, pitchers have a must more difficult time jumping into the majors as difference-makers. Thus, I typically rank young hitters quite a bit higher in terms of initial impact. Second, there are a number of questions about Kazmir specifically. His mechanics need work, and along with that, he walks way too many batters to be considered a consistent option. Those walks will hurt him this year. He's only 21, and he has a bright future ahead of him, but he's still a bit young. Give him some time. I'm also concerned about his durability; I'm not sure he can stay healthy. Add all this up, and despite the high potential, I decided to rank him lower on the list; however, he is the second pitcher listed, so in that sense, he can't go much higher.
All that said, I don't want to give the wrong impression. I think Kazmir is a tremendous talent, but that he needs more time to develop to his fullest potential. A big part of that process will be improving his control. He could even take a huge leap forward this year, but I think the probability of that is too low to justify a higher ranking.
Thanks for the feedback.
About Swisher, what's his outlook this year regarding playing time? Last I remember reading he was in a battle with Byrnes for at bats.
About Swisher, what's his outlook this year regarding playing time? Last I remember reading he was in a battle with Byrnes for at bats.
im pretty sure swisher will be starting in right while byrnes will be starting in left
About Swisher, what's his outlook this year regarding playing time? Last I remember reading he was in a battle with Byrnes for at bats.
Thanks.
Swisher is currently slated to start in right, with Byrnes getting the nod in left. There have been trade rumors swirling around Byrnes, although many now believe he'll stick with the team. Bobby Kielty and Carlos Thomas will also be in the mix for at-bats at those spots, although Kielty been out with a strained calf.
Thanks for the comments.
I think Kotchman has a chance to be a very productive fantasy option in the future. He's also such a pure, natural hitter that he could be a surprise this season. The one area of concern are injuries, which have been an obstacle in the past; however, most of his injuries are random, and aren't the type that turn into chronic problems.
As for the power, I believe it will come. Kotchman had 33 doubles and 8 homers in 313 minor league at-bats last season. That's a lot of doubles, and many of those should turn into homers in the future. I think that Kotchman has the potential to develop into a Mark Grace/Todd Helton mix, with a high average and moderate power. A fair guess would be 20-25 homers per year, with a .300+ average. That's not quite as much power as most top first basemen, but the high average will boost his value.
Is it just me or does this rookie class (or at least the players you highlighted) for the upcoming season seem awfully weak, as compared to years past?
Is it just me or does this rookie class (or at least the players you highlighted) for the upcoming season seem awfully weak, as compared to years past?
I think an argument could be made for that case. This year's class lacks a big-name prospect expected to bust out to a huge season. The guys at the top of the list could have decent years, but the expectations aren't very high. Another thing hindering this class is that the guys with the highest upside will likely take some time to develop and alleviate injury concerns. Kazmir, McPherson, and Kotchman all fall into this category.
Rookies are always tough to predict, but this year's class appears to be lacking, particularly in the short run.
25 HR, 85 R, 100 RBI, 15 SB, .325 avg
I'll temper the expectations for Wright a bit. He got off to a somewhat slow start this spring, but began to pick things up as time passed. This year, expect something along the lines of .280-20-75-15, although it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see him surpass those totals.