Sytems Audit: Boston Red Sox
September 11, 2006
Systems Audit:
Boston Red Sox
1. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, MLB. Very good defensively. He’s a prototypical leadoff hitter. Little home run power and great ability to get on base but doesn’t strikeout much. He’s got the ability to turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, especially at Fenway Park.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, AA. Defense and speed. Ellsbury is very good defensively and if Boston wants someone who can roam the OF and make up for the lack of range a certain left fielder has, he’s the man. He’s not the best hitting CF in the system and I don’t foresee that coming any time soon. He’d be an 8 or 9 hole hitter with a moderate average and little to no ability to grab extra bases. He does have a great eye at the plate and doesn’t strikeout much.
3. Jed Lowrie, SS, A+. Lowrie and Pedroia could make and outstanding defensive middle for Boston. In the NY-Penn league last year he was an on-base machine but has struggled with is promotion to A+ this year. He lacks power but should make up for that with his ability to put the bat on the ball and reach base. Decent defensive skills.
4. Clay Bucholtz, RHP, A+. Excellent BB and K rates last year in the NY-Penn League and has continued that this year at A and A+. He keeps the ball in the park and off the bat and that spells success. Bucholtz could be an ace someday.
5. Michael Bowden, RHP, A+. Bowden could be higher. His numbers are very good. But I see some trouble down the road for this guy. His mechanics are slightly off and he puts too much strain on his elbow because of the way he delivers the ball (Tommy John?) He throws hard and well. Great K/BB rate and decent ability to keep the ball in the park, but can use some work.
6. Abe Alverez, LHP, AAA. Alverez doesn’t project as more than a back of the rotation guy with a 4.75 ERA and a great ability to not walk batters. In all likelihood he’ll end up in the bullpen because of his control.
7. David Murphy, CF, AAA. He’s had a breakout of sorts this year and that may be indicative of him taking strides to improve his game. For now though, he’s a good OF with a small stick. He’s very mediocre and projects as a fourth OF.
8. George Kottaras, C, AA. Solid catcher with good ability to get on base. If he improves his defense he’ll be Varitek’s replacement before long. Some power but won’t be a 20 HR guy.
9. Bryson Cox, RHP, A+. In just 29 innings he’s made his mark. He could be a decent #3. Good K rate in limited action this year. He’ll need to work on his control and add another plus pitch before he’s ready to be moved up this list.
10. Jason Place, CF, Rk. Young, talented, raw. He’s got a lot to learn and some guys to jump over, but if he develops into a hitter, as he was drafted to, he’ll be on the fast track to Fenway.
Flier: Daniel Bard, RHP, unassigned. Bard isn’t on the list because he’s a special case. He hasn’t played since the College World Series and it’s hard to place him based on college performance and stats. He could be in the bigs in two years. Great 2 seamer that could hit 100. He’ll struggle at times keeping the ball in the park but will make up for that by blazing the ball by even the best hitters.
Future Lineup (MLB arrival time)
C: George Kottaras (2008)
1B: Free Agent Signing
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2007)
3B: Free Agent Signing
SS: Jed Lowrie (2008)
LF: Manny Ramirez
CF: Jason Place (2009)
RF: Willy Mo Pena
Starting Rotation
1. Clay Bucholtz (2008)
2. Josh Beckett
3. Jon Lester
4. Craig Hansen
5. Daniel Bard (2008)
'Pen
CL: Jonathan Papelbon
Setup: Manny Delcarmen
LR: Lenny DiNardo, Abe Alverez, Michael Bowden
The Red Sox have a decent system. They don’t have a lot of big prospects, but they have a lot of guys who could step in and play. Pedroia is my top 2B and Bucholtz is a sleeper prospect, if there can be such a thing. There’s plenty of pitching here the question is who stays and who gets shipped off in July for a pennant push?
System Grade: C
Posted by Koby Schellenger: Sep 11 at 6:34 PM
Fantasy Baseball 
Ksch, did you write this? It's very interesting.
Hm.. from that roster that's very interesting. Ortiz/Manny would be among the oldest players then and with Manny/Ortiz in until at least '08 (Manny club option '09/'10, Ortiz club option '11. The entire infield is going to change next season if Loretta/Gonzo leave and that would be very interesting.
For pitching, did you put them from #1 to the worst? And you have Hansen starting instead of Papelbon? I'm not sure what Boston has in plan, noone does, but yeah, this offseason will be interesting to see who closes next year.
That's a very interesting bullpen. Nice analysis.
EDIT: I must have used the word interesting like 1000000000 times. I see Wily Mo in Boston. IMO, Coco or Wily Mo will most likely be traded before their contracts are up or whatever.
First, thank you for the compliment. I am working on writing these for each team and have done Toronto, Tampa and NYY so far.
I do see Pena on the team for a while. I don't think the Sox are about to enter the 150M+ range. So signing more FAs for the OF is kinda out of hte question. I also like Pena's upside and think he'll eventually turn out to be pretty solid.
Ksch, did you write this? It's very interesting.
Hm.. from that roster that's very interesting. Ortiz/Manny would be among the oldest players then and with Manny/Ortiz in until at least '08 (Manny club option '09/'10, Ortiz club option '11. The entire infield is going to change next season if Loretta/Gonzo leave and that would be very interesting.
For pitching, did you put them from #1 to the worst? And you have Hansen starting instead of Papelbon? I'm not sure what Boston has in plan, noone does, but yeah, this offseason will be interesting to see who closes next year.
That's a very interesting bullpen. Nice analysis.
EDIT: I must have used the word interesting like 1000000000 times. I see Wily Mo in Boston. IMO, Coco or Wily Mo will most likely be traded before their contracts are up or whatever.
Yes DOH, I did write this. As for pitching, they are ranked as the number 1 pitcher, the number 2 etc. I think when Bucholtz makes it into the rotation, he'll be a bona fide ace before too long.
I went back and forth deciding on that last OF spot between Coco, Wily Mo and Ellsbury but in the end decided Crisp would be traded and Ellsbury is likely to be traded.
I don't know what the Sox will do with Papelbon, of course. I am guessing he stays in the pen though.
First, thank you for the compliment. I am working on writing these for each team and have done Toronto, Tampa and NYY so far.
I do see Pena on the team for a while. I don't think the Sox are about to enter the 150M+ range. So signing more FAs for the OF is kinda out of hte question. I also like Pena's upside and think he'll eventually turn out to be pretty solid.
Wily Mo is awesome in that lineup. The only thing I see is that he really really needs to strike out less. Manny/Ortiz have struck out less than the past couple years and if Wily Mo can learn more plate discipline he can be a good 5-8 hitter. He's certainly got the pop to the bat.