Systems Audit: Philadelphia Phillies
November 05, 2006
Systems Audit:
Philadelphia Phillies
1. Gio Gonzalez, LHP, AA. Gonzalez pitched well at Reading but will be scrutinized for giving up 24 long balls. But that's an unfair criticism of the young guy. He gave up 17 of the 24 at the hitter friendly park in Reading. Gio has a plus curve and a decent fastball. He is prone to overthrowing but Philly is having him work almost exclusively on his fastball/changeup in the AFL which should help correct some of that. He isn't an ace but who needs one when you have Cole Hamels.
2. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, A. Carrasco brings an impressive 96 mph heater and a plus curve. His mechanics are very good and he has all the makings of a good middle of the rotation guy. However, be warned: He will be the most overrated prospect in this system by many people because of his stats. What this fails to consider is that he was in a very pitcher friendly park in Lakewood. Carrasco has plenty of room to improve before he's ready for the big show but if he can locate his change up a little better he'll be on the right track. He works the ball inside well, particularly to lefties and in general can work either corner with good effectiveness.
3. Kyle Drabek, RHP, Rk. Drabek, son of former Cy Young winner Doug, is a prototypical high school stud. He could be an above average shortstop or second basemen but instead is an excellent pitching prospect. He throws 95 with a plus 12-6 curve and excellent understanding of how to pitch. His coaches have noted how important it is that they don't need to remind him of things while he's on the mound. His major areas to work on are his delivery which is odd and jerky and his stamina which is somewhat short as of now.
4. Greg Golson, OF, A+. He’s so typical of what old GMs want. He is fast and looks good but can’t really hit for average. He should be able to get on base enough to allow his speed to make up for his shortcomings with the stick. His defense is pretty good and he has a great arm. His arm and his ability to stretch singles into doubles will propel him but he needs to put the bat on the ball in order to take the next step and be considered a major part of the long term plans.
5. Adrian Cardenas, SS, Rk. Cardenas shot up draft boards this spring because of his incredible power potential. He also has a decent eye at the plate and good contact skills. His weaker arm may force him to move to 2B at some point but that will only increase his value as his defense will be relatively better and his offensive skills more outstanding. Needs to work on range and taking pitches.
6. Michael Bourn, OF, AAA. Bourn is ready to contribute at the ML level. The only question is what will he contribute? He has great plate discipline and very good speed. He could play centerfield but might be more suited for left field with his mediocre arm. He could steal plenty of bases if he learns to read pitchers and steal in correct situations. I don't think there's any doubt that he'll compete for a roster spot out of Spring Training, but there is doubt about how much playing time he'll see. I don't see him as more than a .260/.360/.360 hitter who is better suited as a defensive replacement/pinch runner.
7. Edgar Garcia, RHP, A-. Garcia has plenty of talent to go around. Very good control pitcher who works his pitches down in the zone well. He is more of a groundball pitcher as a result but not to the extreme that some are. He won't strikeout many but he also won't walk many (any) which bodes well for quick promotion.
8. Zack Segovia, RHP, AA. Segovia struggled a bit with a promotion from A+ to AA ball this year. But it was nothing to be alarmed about. He has a small history of injury but nothing that is too disconcerting. He throws a fastball with some movement in the 92-93 range and a decent change. He's working on adding/improving his other pitches and smoothing out his delivery.
9. J.A. Happ, LHP, AA. Happ has a broad skill set that does not include limiting walks. He is good to very good at limiting hits, home runs, and maximizing strikeouts and groundouts. Before he can project as more than a spot starter he'll need to show a consistent ability to minimize walks.
10. Scott Mathieson, RHP, MLB. Susceptible to the long ball and the walk. Strikesout enough to project as fairly effective but he has a tendancy to serve up pitches. Needs to improve the break on his breaking pitches and reduce walks.
Flier. Welinson Baez, 3B, A+. Baez struggled this year but still has plenty of skill defensively. Not too much to say about him offensively except he struggled. He needs a great 2007 season and steer his career back on course.
Future Lineup (arrival date)
C: Chris Coste
1B: Ryan Howard
2B: Chase Utley
3B: Abraham Nunez/FA
SS: Jimmy Rollins
LF: Greg Golson (2009)
CF:Shane Victorino
RF: Aaron Rowand
Pitching Rotation
1. Cole Hamels
2. Gio Gonzalez (2008)
3. Brett Myers
4. Carlos Carrasco (2008)
5. Gavin Floyd
Bullpen
Closer: FA
Setup: Fabio Castro,
Middle Relief: Kyle Drabek (2010), Eude Brito, Zack Segovia (2008)
The Phillies have graduated some good player recently including ultra-hyped Cole Hamels and Ryan Howard. But they aren't barren. There is plenty of mediocre pitching prospects left buried in a system in flux and plenty of high school players who will take time to develop. The Phillies don't necessarily need a deep farm system as they have a pretty talented infield and some talent in the outfield. They could use some pitching until Gonzalez and Carrasco are ready to step into an ML role and while waiting for Hamels to totally step into his media-created shoes, they lack a true ace. While committing to drafting younger players is the trendy thing to do right now, the Phillies will have to wait a few years for prospects as they transition their way from college based draft style to high school.
System Grade: C-
Posted by Koby Schellenger: Nov 5 at 12:56 PM
Fantasy Baseball 
I was initially going to do AL East, NL East, AL Cental... but then I decided to do the whole AL and save the best for last
I agree. Bourn has no where else to play except Philly but I odn't think he's good enough to be a regular. He'll certainly get a fair shot in Spring Training though.
A lot of the top 10s will be off because players have been traded. This one was done almost 2 months ago.