Systems Audit: Seattle Mariners
November 11, 2006
Systems Audit:
Seattle Mariners
1. Jeff Clement, C, AAA. If Clement can solidify his defense he is the one minor league catcher who could challenge Piazza's home run record for catchers. Clement struggled in his first full professional season (most of which was spent in AAA) due to an injury he was recovering from. Clement should be ready to contribute, in some servicable capacity, next season. The only question is where he fits in.
2. Adam Jones, CF, AAA. Jones isn't great, but he has some undeveloped tools. He just turned 21 late in the 2006 season so he's definitely young for AAA. He struggles to make contact but when he does he has power and plenty of power potential. A great athlete who has Gold Glove potential. He struggles against lefties (oddly because he's right handed) but 7 of his 14 hits against lefties went for extra bases.
3. Brian LaHair, 1B, AAA. LaHair is a highly touted 1B for good reason. He's big, has great numbers and isn't stone handed defensively. Those three things generally make for a good hitting first baseman. But he has some things working against him that should be big causes for concern. He will strikeout a lot because of his height (6'5") and holes in his swing. His BABIP is incredibly high. At levels with over 200 ABs his BABIP has been .356, .376, ..360, .392. While these numbers aren't inconcievable, they are unlikely for someone with his speed. That means he is either incredibly gifted at hitting for gaps, he's played against bad defenses or he's been lucky. Likely it's a combination of all three which means that at the major league level we can expect his numbers to decline significantly. Finally, age works against him. He is already 24 with just half a season at AAA.
4. Brandon Morrow, RHP, Rk. Morrow was the M's first pick in the 2006 draft. He's out of Cal. He has a blazing fastball in the 96-99 range. He compliments that with a plus split finger fastball.
5. Tony Butler, LHP, A-. Excellent prospect drafted in 2006 out of Oak Creek HS, Wisconsin. Throws a good fastball with plenty of movement that is in the 86-89 range. He throws a good curve, a plus change and knows how to work inside and outside.
6. Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B, AA. Good power potential but lacks the defensive skills to stay in the infield. He'll likely have to move to right field in order to mask his defensive problems.
7. Yung Chi Chen, 2B, AA. Light hitting second baseman with a knack for mediocrity. He's not a great hitter (just over .300) not a great on base guy (just under .375) and not a great slugger (Just under .450) but he's good enough for a second baseman with acceptable defensive skills.
8. Wladimir Balentin, RF, AA. A three true outcome hitter with plenty of power. His contact rate is very low and his strikeouts are hard to ignore. He doesn't get exploited because his approach and swing are very erratic. He's a very solid slugger but he needs to be able to put the bat on the ball more. He walks enough to help mitigate the strikeouts but nothing can really make up for a 30% K-rate.
9. Gerraldo Avila, 1B, A. Avila showed much promise in his pro debut. He has mediocre power potential. Strikesout too much and has some holes in his swing. He has Adam Dunn potential, with a few less walks.
10. Chris Snelling, RF, MLB. Snelling might not even deserve to be on this list. But I don't believe he's done yet. He repeated AAA in 2006 and lost .117/.093/.153 off his vital line. He had some injury problems so a mulligan might be appropriate, but I'm beginning to jump off his bandwagon.
Flier. Chris Tillman, RHP, A-. Tillman was a 2006 draft pick who shows tremendous potential but limited control. He, like most high school pitchers, cruised through on natural ability alone. His game isn't nearly as refined as the M's would like but he has plenty of potential.
Future Lineup (arrival date)
C: Jeff Clement (2008)
1B: Brian LaHair (2007)
2B: Jose Lopez
3B: Adrian Beltre
SS: Matt Tuiasosopo (2008)
LF: Chris Snelling (2007)
CF: Adam Jones (2008)
RF: Ichiro Suzuki
DH: Richie Sexson
Pitching Rotation
1: Felix Hernandez
2: Jarrod Washburn
3: Brandon Morrow (2010)
4: Tony Butler (2009)
5: Francisco Cruceta (2007)
Bullpen
Closer: JJ Putz
Setup: Raphael Soriano, Cesar Jimenez
Middle Relief: Ryan Feierabend, Emiliano Fruto
Nearly all of the Mariners young talent lies within position players. That's not a bad thing necessarily but the M's recognized a potential problem and drafted two young pitchers in the 2006 June Draft. They have continued to be a major player in the Pacific and have not been afraid to move prospects for major league players (acquisition of Ben Brousssard) Their farms system is built nicely. It has talent at multiple positions, and that talent is spread out over several levels. That makes it an easier process of moving the talent up to the big leagues so the club doesn't experience growing pains across the lineup card.
System Grade: C+
Posted by Koby Schellenger: Nov 11 at 10:01 AM
Fantasy Baseball 
I miss Jacobsen, he's the kind of guy you cheer for even if you didn't like the Mariners.
Much, much better. You're talking Brian McCann vs. Yadier Molina, though Kottaras is a little better offensively than Yadi and not as good defensively.
Really, my only question with Clement is whether he'll stick at C. I remember that's what prevented me from picking up Victor Martinez about a year before he broke into the majors, and he's stuck at the position to this point.
Much, much better. You're talking Brian McCann vs. Yadier Molina, though Kottaras is a little better offensively than Yadi and not as good defensively.
Really, my only question with Clement is whether he'll stick at C. I remember that's what prevented me from picking up Victor Martinez about a year before he broke into the majors, and he's stuck at the position to this point.
I thought Fat Albert was training Yadi in hitting (I think I read about this from a SI article). And is Yadi really the younger brother of Bengie because they don't look alike.
Oh yeah! Defensively they're comparable but offensively Clement makes Kottaras look like he's swinging a Klement's Brat. (Sorry, couldn't resist, I'm making brats for dinner) Anyway, Clement has super power potential and could hit for a good average. Clement broke the national high school record for home runs and continued that success at USC. Kottaras will be no better than a middle of the road offensive catcher in his prime. Clements issue will be getting healthy and developing the defense to stick.