System Audit: New York Mets
December 11, 2006
System Audit:
New York Mets
1. Fernando Martinez, CF, A+. Athletic. He might be the best athlete in the baseball at this point. He's only 18 but was able to hold his own in the AFL this year. He draws a fair amount of walks, strikesout a tad too much and can even hit for some power. He struggles mightily with left handed pitching and struggles with anything inside. For fantasy baseball this is a rich man's Juan Pierre. He might hit 20-25 home runs someday, he can steal 40+ bases, hit over .300 and with the potential the Mets have, score well over 100 runs.
2. Mike Pelfrey, RHP, MLB. There are very few pitchers who start in A+ and end in the big leagues. There are even fewer that do it in their first professional season. Pelfrey did. He's big (6'7") and knows how to use that body. He carries a 96 MPH plus fastball with good movement, and a good change and curve. His slider has good movement but lacks control. He needs another year of minor league conditioning to build durability and develop some of those pitches. He will be a good strikeout pitcher who also doesn't give up too many walks. He keeps the ball in the park by pitching down and has the potential to become an unhittable pitcher.
3. Carlos Gomez, CF, AA. Strikesout a little too much and should take more walks. He's the quickest and best baserunner in the Mets system (though in the near future Martinez could challenge that) and an increased OBP will only serve to help him utilize that speed more. He has some pop and could hit 25 HR in the big leagues but his value is in his feet.
4. Deolis Guerra, RHP, A+. Want to know the list of 17 year old pitchers in the Florida State League (A+)? Deolis Guerra. Pretty solid young pitcher. Tall and alledgedly durable. He has an incredible arm and throws 90-91 but with his delivery should be able to add up to 5 MPH. He has a plus change and a good fastball. His progression has been fast and the Mets are liable to slow that down plenty but this guy has an incredible ceiling.
5. Phil Humber, RHP, MLB. He had Tommy John surgery last year but came back strong and said he felt better than ever. His AFL was ended with shoulder soreness but that is not something to be too alarmed about. He's a fairly good strikeout pitcher with good movement on his pitches. He won't dazzle anyone with blazing speed or incredible deceptiveness, but he gets the job done.
6. Alay Soler, RHP, MLB. The Cuban defector is still a prospect (in the sense that he's rookie eligible) but it's pretty clear what the Mets have with him. Good stuff, but not great. He'll likely find himself in the bullpen but he has the potential to be a fifth starter.
7. Joseph Smith, RHP, AA. Smith saw limited action in his first season but has plenty of talent. He moved through A ball quickly and next year will probably start at AA but with good progress and continuing to master his command he could move up to AAA Norfolk before years end.
8. Anderson Hernandez, 2B, MLB. He's tasted the bigs and while he struggled this year, I think he's just as talented as people thought he was last year. Fairly good defensively and good offensively he could be a MLB 2B next year or a very good utility player. Little to no power, but could hit .300 and draw a few walks.
9. Mike Carp, 1B, A+. Strikesout a little too much but can hit for average and draw walks as well as hit for some power. As a 20 year old in the AFL he showed his true colors and merit as he mashed out a pretty good set of stats. He has a good swing and a good approach at the plate.
10. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, AA. Top pick (2nd round) in the 2006 June Draft. He has a good fastball-changeup combination which makes him a very good strikeout pitcher. Both pitches are plus pitches and the fastball hits 94-95. He also throws a curve and a slider but neither are particularly good nor do they show particular promise.
Flier. Shawn Bowman, 3B, A+. Bowman might have made the top ten had it not been for him breaking a vertibrae, again. He broke the same vertibrae for the second straight year this year and after speaking with a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, I was reassured that he would most likely be able to come back at close to 100% from this injury, though there is never anything certain about this type of injury.
Future Lineup (arrival date)
C: Paul LoDuca
1B: Mike Carp (2009)
2B: Anderson Hernandez (2007)
3B: David Wright
SS: Jose Reyes
LF: Carlos Beltran (moved when Martinez is ready)
CF: Fernando Martinez (2009)
RF: Carlos Gomez (2008)
Pitching Rotation
1: Mike Pelfrey (late 2007)
2: Deolis Guerra (2009)
3: Phil Humber (2007)
4: Alay Soler (mid-late 2007)
5: Kevin Mulvey (2008)
Bulpen
Closer: Billy Wagner
Setup: Ambiorix Burgos, Guillermo Mota, Joseph Smith
Middle Relief: John Maine, Aaron Heilman
The Mets have a plethora of talent. It appears as though Lastings Milledge has worn out his welcome in New York and is going to be sent packing as soon as a team is willing to take a chance on him. By far the youngest top 10 list it is full of young, talented super-prospects. Their talent is where their future weakness is and they've done it through the draft, Latin American scouting and trades.
System Grade: A
Posted by Koby Schellenger: Dec 11 at 8:52 AM
Fantasy Baseball 
/anderson hernandez has shown to be a pedestrian hitter at the major league level. he struck out way to much and could even sniff a hit. what makes you say he is good offensively?
You mention the both Gomez and Martinez have low power levels. I thought I heard something about Martinez being a 20-25 type guy and Gomez around 30. why such a large discrepancy?
Also where does oliver perez wind up? You mention soler in the projected lineup(probably b/c he is still a rookie) when oliver perez is considerably better. do you think the mets are just going to hang on to him until the prospects are ready? Soler is 27 and perez is 25.
/anderson hernandez has shown to be a pedestrian hitter at the major league level. he struck out way to much and could even sniff a hit. what makes you say he is good offensively?
You mention the both Gomez and Martinez have low power levels. I thought I heard something about Martinez being a 20-25 type guy and Gomez around 30. why such a large discrepancy?
Also where does oliver perez wind up? You mention soler in the projected lineup(probably b/c he is still a rookie) when oliver perez is considerably better. do you think the mets are just going to hang on to him until the prospects are ready? Soler is 27 and perez is 25.
I've heard the same on Fernando Martinez. His ceiling is amazing, and he has a great shot at coming close to it. He could be a 25 - 30 HR guy if the power develops like the Mets hope. Gomez, though, I'm not sold on. I question whether he'll ever cut down on the K's, and I highly doubt he will ever be a 30 HR guy. 15 maybe, but not 30.
Oliver Perez is such an enigma that I do not blame Koby from keeping him off the future rotation. If he ever harnesses that control, he could be an ace. But we are not talking about a simple task though.
Although I do think Martinez will be a 20+ homerun hitter and since power is usually the last thing to develop, I really don't think anyone knows his true potential yet.
Also, where's the love for Francisco Pena?
/anderson hernandez has shown to be a pedestrian hitter at the major league level. he struck out way to much and could even sniff a hit. what makes you say he is good offensively?
You mention the both Gomez and Martinez have low power levels. I thought I heard something about Martinez being a 20-25 type guy and Gomez around 30. why such a large discrepancy?
Also where does oliver perez wind up? You mention soler in the projected lineup(probably b/c he is still a rookie) when oliver perez is considerably better. do you think the mets are just going to hang on to him until the prospects are ready? Soler is 27 and perez is 25.
Hernandez certainly has looked bad in his ML experience, but that's so small and the conditions so difficult that I would take those numbers with a grain of salt. What makes me inclined to characterize him as good offensively is that he'll play second base, a typically weak offensive postion, and he has demonstarted the ability to hit for average at every level he's been at. He has some limited power that he's shown in the past and he has a fair amount of speed.
I made a mistake on the power numbers of Martinez and Gomez. It has been corrected. Though I am much more conservative on my estimations of their future power than some, I do not forcast 40 HR out of either, which I've heard from some peole.
I think ultimately Soler will be given more of a chance to succeed than Perez. I don't think Perez has much more to develop where Soler may simply by virtue of being exposed to different styles. While Soler is older, his experience has been so limited that many people, myself included, believe he has more maturing to do where Perez has had that exposure and time to mature in his pitching style and hasn't been able to show any signs of improvement.
I don't think the Mets have much of a choice other than to give the ball to Perez every fifth day this year and suffer from his high ERA and propensity to serve up BP-balls.
Although I do think Martinez will be a 20+ homerun hitter and since power is usually the last thing to develop, I really don't think anyone knows his true potential yet.
Also, where's the love for Francisco Pena?
Fransisco Pena plays for the Oakland A's.
There's a Richard Pena in the Mets system but I don't know much about him.
Although I do think Martinez will be a 20+ homerun hitter and since power is usually the last thing to develop, I really don't think anyone knows his true potential yet.
Also, where's the love for Francisco Pena?
Fransisco Pena plays for the Oakland A's.
There's a Richard Pena in the Mets system but I don't know much about him.
Although I do think Martinez will be a 20+ homerun hitter and since power is usually the last thing to develop, I really don't think anyone knows his true potential yet.
Also, where's the love for Francisco Pena?
Fransisco Pena plays for the Oakland A's.
There's a Richard Pena in the Mets system but I don't know much about him.
Oh, gotcha. He hasn't played professionally so I since I haven't seen him I have nothing to rank him on. By the way, does anyone know what the plans are for him? Is he going to start professionally next year or is he going to go to high school? I thought I read something that he was going to be brought to the States to study when he was signed but I can't remember.
There is some talk that he may play at Low A Hagerstown next year, but I don't think anything has been decided yet.
LOL. I saw that too. I like the guy that runs that site a lot. And I have several Mets fans who constantly shove Mets talk down everyones throat (is that redundant?) and they often link me to that board. Fairly knowledgable but pretty typical New Yorkers/Mets fans imo that just like to complain about anything and everything.
LOL. I saw that too. I like the guy that runs that site a lot. And I have several Mets fans who constantly shove Mets talk down everyones throat (is that redundant?) and they often link me to that board. Fairly knowledgable but pretty typical New Yorkers/Mets fans imo that just like to complain about anything and everything.
Well, don't forget that one of them said "we should sign Soriano for 5 years, $62 million" in his signature.
LOL. I saw that too. I like the guy that runs that site a lot. And I have several Mets fans who constantly shove Mets talk down everyones throat (is that redundant?) and they often link me to that board. Fairly knowledgable but pretty typical New Yorkers/Mets fans imo that just like to complain about anything and everything.
NYFS is a good site. It's the only Mets board that I frequent as most of the members at least know what they are talking about.
Best point I've read all day. Saw the same thing.
End of story, thanks for playing.
EDITED to avoid pushing this thread away from the topic with another post. If he is being sarcastic, then Im confused. Dumping green, resigning tommy, incentive laden deal to mulder, all good ideas. none sound like dry wit and/or sarcasm so why assume that one item is. I suppose I could be wrong, but remember, im a met fan, so it almost never happens...
Getting back on topic though...
Koby,
If Milledge hadn't reached the prereq number of ABs last year, where would you likely slot him in this list? I know theres some subjectivity involved with his perceived off the field issues, but I'd expect he'd still be at/near the top of the list. If he's not, just a little curious on how he fell...
Thanks,
A Reasonable Met Fan
2. Resign Glavine
3. Get Soriano for LF - 5 yrs 62 mil
4. Trade Shawn Green for scrap metal, Milledge in Right
5. Loretta for 2B
so ya.
My favorite part is that they think kschell is a Mets fan...
Koby,
If Milledge hadn't reached the prereq number of ABs last year, where would you likely slot him in this list? I know theres some subjectivity involved with his perceived off the field issues, but I'd expect he'd still be at/near the top of the list. If he's not, just a little curious on how he fell...
Thanks,
A Reasonable Met Fan
Aside from his onfield antics, I'd have ranked him just below Humber. He's very talented but his ceiling isnt' nearly has high imo as the other OFs.
form what I understand is its free today only.
linky poo
2. Resign Glavine
3. Get Soriano for LF - 5 yrs 62 mil
4. Trade Shawn Green for scrap metal, Milledge in Right
5. Loretta for 2B
so ya.
Points 2, 4, and 5 seem rather reasonable to me.
Catcher Jesus Flores was picked up the Rule 5 draft, I believe by the Nationals.
He was discussed in prospect conversations with the Mets, but he has he progressed to a point where he would have been listed in "the 10"? Does he project as an every day ML player?
Thanks again
Catcher Jesus Flores was picked up the Rule 5 draft, I believe by the Nationals.
He was discussed in prospect conversations with the Mets, but he has he progressed to a point where he would have been listed in "the 10"? Does he project as an every day ML player?
Thanks again
Flores is in a difficult position. Going from class A+ to the big leagues is difficult for anyone, let alone a catcher. Offensively Flores is below average, even for a catcher and his defense isn't too great. I don't see him as an everyday catcher. I don't even see him sticking with the Nats all season and I imagine he'll be back with the Mets before the season's over.
Catcher Jesus Flores was picked up the Rule 5 draft, I believe by the Nationals.
He was discussed in prospect conversations with the Mets, but he has he progressed to a point where he would have been listed in "the 10"? Does he project as an every day ML player?
Thanks again
Flores is in a difficult position. Going from class A+ to the big leagues is difficult for anyone, let alone a catcher. Offensively Flores is below average, even for a catcher and his defense isn't too great. I don't see him as an everyday catcher. I don't even see him sticking with the Nats all season and I imagine he'll be back with the Mets before the season's over.
I thought I'd seen scouting reports touting him as an above average prospect. Just curious, difference of opinion on scouting or below average comapred to (soon-to-be) big league peers.
Thanks again.
Catcher Jesus Flores was picked up the Rule 5 draft, I believe by the Nationals.
He was discussed in prospect conversations with the Mets, but he has he progressed to a point where he would have been listed in "the 10"? Does he project as an every day ML player?
Thanks again
Flores is in a difficult position. Going from class A+ to the big leagues is difficult for anyone, let alone a catcher. Offensively Flores is below average, even for a catcher and his defense isn't too great. I don't see him as an everyday catcher. I don't even see him sticking with the Nats all season and I imagine he'll be back with the Mets before the season's over.
I thought I'd seen scouting reports touting him as an above average prospect. Just curious, difference of opinion on scouting or below average comapred to (soon-to-be) big league peers.
Thanks again.
There was a time when he was certainly at least an average, if not above average prospect. But he didn't develop like he was expected to. Without playing above A+ I just question whether his skills are good enough to even hold down a roster spot. Additionally, without playing every day, or must at all, I doubt he'll be able to improve at all.