Jays Month in Review - April

"It's kind nice but it's not the most important stat, If we were leading the lead in execution that would be more of an accomplishment”.

That quote from Jay’s captain Carlos Delgado on the subject of the Jays being the majors #1 hitting team is a symbol of hope for Jays’ fans. It indicates that the Jays get it – they realize what they need to do to be a winning team.

Of course, that doesn’t mean they actually will.

Toronto ended a miserable April where they were 10-18 by starting May with a bang – and have climbed to 16-19 after today’s 8-6 win in Texas.

So, what was the story with the Jay's to start this season. Is there hope for the team. Who are the fantasy steals? Who should you avoid? Read on.

OFFENSE: The Jays are pounding the ball of late. Coming into the Texas game today the Jays were tied for first in the majors in average with a .289 mark – they were fourth in Slg (.472), 4th in OBP (.357) and second in runs scored (205).

In today’s game Carlos Delgado and Vernon Wells went a combined 0-10 – the Jays still pounded out 10 hits. Shannon Stewart and Greg Myers were the offensive heroes.

It seems that more or less every Jay is swinging a good stick right now. Of course it wasn’t so long ago that Orlando Hudson and Chris Woodward, the Jays young starting infield, were both looking overmatched.

Manager Carlos Tosca reacted by giving more AB’s to vet’s Dave Berg and Mike Bordick. Both have responded. Berg is hitting a gaudy .340 with 2 HR’s and 7 RBI in 50AB’s. Bordick has posted .283-0-11 in 46AB’s.

What this means is that it is likely Chris and Orlando are going to see fewer at bats than some of their counterparts. Revise your expectations downwards - especially for Hudson. Woodward has the power and plate discipline to force his way into the line-up every day again. I don't know if Hudson does.

Greg Myers after his game today has a .313-3-12 in 62AB’s year going. Myers also has an OBP of .397 – not bad. Tom Wilson the other half of the Jays plate platoon is .266-2-7 in 64AB’s, and has a respectable OBP of .356.

So, can this last?

Well, yes and no. Dave Berg and Greg Myers are not good bets to hit .300+ over a full season. However, all four of these players have had enough past success at the plate for them to remain useful pieces all year.

If you’re Jays heavy in a pool take solace in the fact that Eric Hinske (.242-1-19), Josh Phelps (.260-4-15) and even Vernon Wells (.264-7-33) are all capable of more.

Hinske and Phelps both showed an aptitude for adjustment and high OBP in their rookie season. Expect their #’s to edge upwards. Wells, probably won’t be more productive, but his average should get better, and his poor OBP (.312) MUST get better for him to realize his full potential.

The key of course has been the re-emergence of Carlos Delgado. I’m not surprised at all. Delgado was a terror at the end of last year. This meant something to me for three reasons:

1) Delgado was healthy – he had been the owner of the major’s longest active consecutive game streak – and when he went down, finally, last year I think he got badly needed rest.

2) Delgado is happy – with all the negative swirling around the Jay’s clubhouse and the somewhat unfair accusations of Delgado not carrying his weight, due to his enormous contract, the Jay’s big slugger was tense. Carlos hides it well, but to look at his face now, and then compare with a year ago – it’s easy to spot the life in Delgado’s eyes.

3) Legitimate protection – after a couple of years of Raul Mondesi in the 5 spot – the Jays finally found some young bats, notably Phelps, that opposing pitchers didn’t want to face. Delgado is seeing better pitches and the resulting #’s 6th in the major’s in average (.350), tied for first in home-runs (12), first in RBI (37), and second in OBP (.476) and Slg (.717) are directly related to this.

Delgado is one of the best hitters in baseball – his “off” years of the past two seasons? Most hitters would kill to have them. Look for Carlos to make another run at the Triple Crown, much like he did a few season’s ago. He’s probably not going to win it, but he might come close.

The Jays real problem is that they have three designated hitters in Phelps, Shannon Stewart and Frank Catalanatto. The later two aren’t as brutal defensively as some like to say, but both posses’ significant liabilities for the Jays in the field. However, both can flat out hit – with them at the top of the line-up the Jays will threaten all year long.

The biggest difference for the Jays this year is that they are taking walks. They still K too much, but they are striking out going after better pitches than ever before. If THAT holds up the Jays are going to be among the top offensive teams all year long. If Hinske and Phelps can step it up – the team will be downright scary.

PITCHING: The Jays are already downright scary though when it comes to hurlers. Toronto sits 12th in the AL in ERA (5.51), dead last in hits and home runs allowed (352 and 53 respectively), is 11th in walks allowed, and allows opponents a higher OBP than any other American League team.

To add insult to injury the Jays have also had the most bases stolen on them this season. Though why anyone would tire themselves out running, when they could jog around the bases after the Jay’s bullpen coughed up another man on long-ball, is beyond me.

So, can it get better?

In the starting rotation yes it can. Roy Halliday, after a dominating spring has struggled a bit with his delivery. Halliday has given up more home runs so far this year than he did all of last season. Have hitters adjusted? Maybe, but more likely it is the fact that Roy has struggled with his release point. He’ll fix that, and he’ll get back to being closer to the form that saw him garner dark horse Cy-Young notice last season.

Cory Lidle is a tough call – I think he’s better than his current 4.94 ERA would suggest. Lidle doesn’t walk many which is his primary strength. He’s also keeping his hits per inning at a respectable one an inning. Lidle has been let down by the Jays defense, which has not got to balls it should have. I don’t know if Lidle will pitch a great deal better, but his numbers should improve. A 5.00 ERA is too high for what he has actually been doing.

Tanyon Sturtze has Todd Stottlmyre disease. He lets perfectly good starts go down the drain with a series of about 9 pitches that come back to haunt him in the form of the 3 run inning. Sturtze has at times struggled with his control this season. At his best Tanyon is a pitcher who will give up a jack a start and scatter 8 hits over 8 or 9 innings. He really should be a #4 on a good team.

Mark Hendrickson has struggled a bit in his second season in the majors. This shouldn’t surprise. Hendrickson after all has only 11 career major league starts. Hendrickson, despite his size, is not a power pitcher. If he doesn’t hit his spots he has problems. I think Hendrickson has the biggest upside from his current performance on the Jays staff aside from Halliday, largely because Hendrickson is a smart player. He, more than any other Jay, might have benefited from a recent closed-door meeting called by the coaching staff that focused on the Jays being more aggressive. If Hendrickson can pitch effectively out of the #3 slot it will make a huge difference for Toronto.

The five slot will be filled by some combination of Kelvim Escobar, Pete Walker or Justin Miller. Doug Davis has it for now, but only until Kelvim is warmed and ready to go.

I like the movement of Kelvim into the rotation. He has four good pitches, which for a closer, is kinda like having a donkey that can dial long-distance -i nteresting but who freakin’ cares?

Escobar always struggled early in games, the book was to get on him right away because he got stronger as the game progressed. Why that weakness – struggling against the first hitters he faced, was somehow believed to be the stuff that makes closers always mystified me.

Escobar does best when he isn’t thinking - that's how he gets into his groove. Unlike say a Hendrickson whose mental game is key. Because of that he’s always prone to stretches of lights out pitching, and then almost instantly he can struggle badly.

In the rotation Escobar is a greater asset than in the pen. I really don’t know what to expect out of Kelvim right now. The key question is “how is his elbow”? Escobar’s problem with stiffness in his elbow was what made the Jays move him to the pen in the first place. If that’s cleared up he’s worth taking a stab at if someone freaking out over his horrible start released him in your pool.

What about the pen? Well, it stinks. There isn’t a lot good to say here. Jeff Tam seems done like dinner. Last season’s bad year after a couple of good one’s in Oakland seems to be the new rule, not the exception. Brutal is too kind a word – if someone knocks on your door offering Tam in a trade, start shooting.

Doug Creek – the lefty vet might look decent, what with the 3.18 ERA, but look closer. 20 base runners in 11.1 innings ain’t good. That will catch up to Creek and soon. He’s another “off a bad year” guy – except even I groaned when the Jays signed Creek. At least Tam had been good recently – Creek hasn’t been an out getter since, well, ever. He’s “wild” in a good way, because he keeps hitters off balance, but you can’t count on him.

That leaves the Jays with much what they had last year - a inexperienced bullpen. Trever Miller impressed in the spring, but he’s been largely ineffective in the pros. He could get a little better I suppose, but that means a 4.54 ERA instead of his current 5.54 ERA.

Aquillino Lopez is interesting. The Rule-5 pick has a gun for an arm with 22K in 13.2 innings. He’s generally been quite good, but a couple of bad outings have inflated his numbers. I don’t think he’s ready for prime time yet though. So, he can only help the Jays so much.

Jason Kershner was a pleasant surprise as a lefty out of the pen last year but he’s been hammered this season since his call-up. Sadly, that’s probably more indicative of his abilities – anyway he’s back in Syracuse.

Doug Linton is an ok spot lefty – but he’s not really a big part of the Jay’s plans (as evidenced by the fact that despite his 3.00 ERA Linton got sent to Syracuse when Kershner was called up).

Cliff Politte is the new closer and he should perform decently well. However, with the way the Jays score runs Politte might struggle for work. Then again with the way the guys before him cough them up Politte might want to have some extra ice on hand. Politte won’t dominate, but he’s done well enough in his short major league career to believe that he can be effective in the closer role.

Brian Bowles is a good young arm that the Jays called up to meet them in Anaheim. Bowles could possibly get Tam’s job. For the sake of the Jays you have to hope he does.

The long and the short of it is that the Jays must have good starts to have any chance. This is not a 2002 Anaheim Angels pen that can eat up 3 or 4 innings night after night.

At best the Jays staff can finish middle of the pack. If they can do that, Toronto will make things interesting the rest of the way.

FIELDING: Even worse than the pitching – and that’s saying something. The good news is after a HORRENDOUS stretch the Jays defense has gone back to “just-below average". This is a huge upgrade from “dear God don’t touch the ball, you’ll only make it worse” which was where they were for the majority of April.

Like last year, Eric Hinske has been so-so out of the gate this season defensively. Maybe Eric’s plate struggles came out to the field with him. Word is Hinske had become very cocky due to last years hardware. Maybe the rough start will force him to refocus. By the end of last season Hinske had shown some potential to become a competent defensive third baseman, perhaps even good.

In the middle the Jays defense has been porous at best. Orlando Hudson and Chris Woodward have both botched plays, not got to balls they should have, and made the double play into the sort of adventure the Crocodile Hunter would avoid.

They can play better, but the combo is a long way from Trammell-Whitaker

Mike Bordick is solid at both places, but he doesn’t get to a ton of balls. Dave Berg is average, both in range and ability to make plays.

In the outfield, Shannon Stewart had probably his worst month defensively of his career. That is, sadly, saying something, as Stewart has always relied on speed over top of good instincts to make the play. He’ll be much better – I think as left fielders go, his arm is the only real negative. Still, he’s not going to steal games with his play out there.

In right Catalanatto has struggled to get to a lot of balls. The guy has bad knees so zipping around the aging turf at Skydome is not a good situation. Tosca will try to get him out of right field at least once or twice a week. Rumours persist that Catalanatto is going to end up as the Jay’s second baseman and Orlando Hudson will be elsewhere before the trade dead-line.

If that happens Jayson Werth becomes the every day RF’er. It’s too early to tell, but Werth has recieved some good reviews given his past two season’s of pro-ball. Still, don't expect a significant improvement if Werth gets the job.

In Centre Vernon Wells is a saviour, he has to be. Wells has to cover too much ground because of his mates, but he can handle it. He might be as good as Devon White, one of the best defensive centerfielders of this or any era.

The overall prognosis for the Jays defense, which was such a large part of their slide, is that it should be better, but it is also going to key future slides – likely at least once.

The bottom line is that the Jays need to get better there in a hurry – with the youth involved that should be possible – and Carlos Tosca is a good teacher. Perhaps the worst is over, I like Tosca, and I might be willing to bet on that.

Overall Toronto has the ability to play .500 ball. If somehow the pitching can prove me wrong about it's average at best ceiling, then Toronto might even have the hitting to become a wild-card dark-horse.

Fantasy wise the Jays will likely be a top 5 AL offense all season long. Right now might be a good time to buy Hinske and Phelps, and maybe even consider Greg Myres and Tom Wilson, depending on what your catching sitution is at. While several Jays are hitting extremely well, I don't think any of it is neccesarily overachieveing. Therefore if you've invested in Wells, Delgado, Stewart or Catalanatto already - I'd stay in. Unless you get a nice offer for Wells - his lack of plate discipline leaves him prone to slumps and the chance of an arbitrage is high.