Blue Jay Report 06-08-03

JAYS REPORT:

PITCHING STILL PROBLEM:
The Toronto Blue Jays have shown no signs whatsoever of letting up with their relentless assault on major-league pitching. The problem is their pitchers are beating a hasty retreat almost each and every night.

In the Jays three game debacle in Missouri against the St. Louis Cardinals, the team scored 15 runs in three games. Yet the Jays emerged without a single win as the Cards blasted Jay hurlers. Then against Cincinnati the Jays coughed up the second game of the series allowing the Reds to rally for a 9-8 victory.

There are many culprits.

THE STARTERS:

Toronto starters have not done much to keep opponents under wraps. Even ace Roy Halladay has been hit hard giving up 107 knocks in 98 innings. That’s a less than Cy-like .272 OBA. The WHIP of 1.26 is decent, and Halladay is definitely pitching to bring those numbers ever downwards, but the fact remains that Roy has not consistently been dominant. In three of his last four starts he has yielded at least as many hits as innings pitched.

Expect Roy to improve upon all his numbers, but I would not bet on a sub 3.00 ERA or sub 1.10 WHIP. If you have him – hold him – his numbers will get better. If you are looking to trade for him, I’d say go for it, Roy is an old school horse, but be aware that your chances of him matching last years #’s are probably less than 50/50.

Cory Lidle, 9-4, has been decent, and at times just short of brilliant, but a 9-4 record is to be expected when you get almost 7 runs a game in front of you.

Opponents are hitting .276 off of Lidle, his WHIP sits at 1.30 and his ERA is over five. He maybe having his early struggles a little late this year as he has been hammered for 24 hits and 14 earned runs over the past two starts in which he has gone just 11 innings. The Jays managed to win one of those two for Cory anyway.

Kelvim Escobar just came off a great outing, and he could be a good buy. However, he’ll probably take a step back in his next start. Escobar rarely has been able to be consistent.

However, if he starts for the rest of the year in front of this offence he could easily win 10 more games this year. Kelvim will probably put up an ERA in the low 4.00’s and have a WHIP that sits around 1.40. If Kelvim can harness his control, and has gone through long periods where he just “has it”, he’s well worth acquiring. His stuff is awesome – as the Reds learned – despite Adam Dunn having “never heard of him”. When Escobar works ahead in the count he is as un-hittable as anyone in the league.

An encouraging sign is that Kelvim has been touched for a dinger just three times in 45 innings – Escobar has a tendency (like everyone else on this staff) to get taken deep.

Mark Hendrickson seems to be headed out of town, word is he has one more start to prove himself and then he heads down to Triple A. Tanyon Sturtze will likely move into the rotation. If he can be the pitcher he was last season and early this one that’s ok news for the Jays. It’ll mean he’ll stick around long enough to keep the Jays lamentable bullpen from being exposed. Sturtze won’t throw many gems but with this offence he doesn’t need to.

The Hendrickson drop also means Doug Davis’ job is safe. Toronto is unlikely to go without a lefty in the starting rotation. Davis has been surprisingly effective so far at sticking around in games. His #’s are ugly though (.302 OBA, 21BB 13K’s, 1.98 WHIP) and you shouldn’t pick him up unless you are desperate. This also means that eventually Davis’ luck will change and he is likely to be out of the starting rotation at some point – either in favour of a hopefully rejuvenated Hendrickson or Sturtze.

In the farm Josh Towers (3.21 ERA, 1.22 WHIP – just 8BB’s in 55 innings) and Cory Thurman (3.48 ERA 1.34 WHIP) are strong big arms with major league experience who have pitched well in Triple A. Towers got roughed up a bit in a brief stop in Toronto but he may yet get a chance to spot start. He’s been called up for long-relief with the injury to Pete Walker. Tower pitched ok (sub 1.20 WHIP), but he gave up three long-balls in 4.3 innings, a trend that has hurt him in the majors.

Thurman, who has improved his control, would have to take yet another step forward in this department to have a good chance to see any significant major league time. Top pitching prospect Jason Arnold was dominant in Double A (1.53 ERA, .82 WHIP), but has been average so far in Triple A (4.64 ERA, 1.54 WHIP) if he steps it up or the Jay’s get desperate Arnold has a shot at being around in the second half.

THE PEN

As I said before – it’s dreadful. For some reason Jeff Tam seems to be intent on pitching himself out of major league baseball. He’s got to be in trouble soon. With Brian Bowles tearing up Triple A, and Tam being pounded for a .302 OBA and a WHIP close to 1.90 a change can’t be too far away.

Then again Tam is a “veteran” and goodness knows in baseball managers like their crappy “veteran” pen members. Still Tam makes only $600,000, even the cost-conscious Jays can eat that if the team is in contention.

Trever Miller has improved as the situational lefty for the Jays – yielding just two hits and one run in his past 6 appearances (a span of 4.3 innings) – but he’s unlikely to be able to step it up a level further. Miller could be at risk if Jason Kershner can continue his strong Triple A season. Kershner was effective last year for the Jays, but so-so in the spring training, and didn’t show much in a brief stint in the majors this year.

There is no reason to own either Miller or Tam.

There is, despite his recent struggles – a reason to own Cliff Politte. Politte won’t astonish you with his numbers, and he’ll blow some saves, but he’s also closed out tough games against the Yankees and Red Sox, and has proven to be developing impressive mental toughness.

I expect Politte to bounce back and convert upon his next few chances and for his numbers to start heading back down. He’s a better pitcher than his 6.00ERA and 1.63 WHIP indicate.

The real gem though is Aquilino Lopez. Lopez was up and down through April and May – showing flashes of brilliance, but also coming unglued at the worst times.

However, since May 17th when Lopez’s ERA stood at 6.11 the talented native of the Dominican Republic has put up the following numbers:

11 G 14 2/3 IP 5H 1 ER 7 BB 13 K.

In the last 42/3 innings Lopez has walked just one batter. His strikeouts have come down from their high point, but Lopez is using the better control to become all but un-hittable.

With Lopez being 27, one can believe that he has the maturity to keep this new approach on the mound. If you are in a league where holds count Lopez is valuable. Even without that his strikeouts, good ERA, and improving WHIP are all impressive. While I don’t think Politte will lose the closers job, if he did, Lopez is the guy who inherits it.

If the Jays do decide to bail on Tam and Bowles or Towers can be a useful (re: 4.20 ERA 1.25 WHIP) pitcher out of the pen the Jays would look immeasurably better. That, or the Jays could start getting 7 inning starts on a regular basis from someone besides Halladay.

SHOULD WE ON HOWIE?

If you are intrigued by Howie Clark’s hot start for the Jay’s (11 for 18) and are looking for another piece of the “Big Blue Machine” or are in a keeper league and want to get a young unknown who is going to blossom – give a pass on Clark.

Howie was called up by the Jays because his skills are the best suited to all around major-league spot duty within their system. Clark was hitting just .235 in Syracuse and there is little to suggest that his ceiling extends higher than a useful part

WARNING ON WOODWARD

Eric Hinske is saying he’ll be back in two weeks. If that’s true that’s bad news for Chris Woodward owners. Woodward has been playing more or less everyday since the Hinske injury. However, when Eric comes back, and if the wrist problem really was the source of his plate woes, then Woodward stands to lose playing time.

Chris’ defense has been spotty at best, and with the Jays main problem being preventing runs, the steady Mike Bordick will continue to get several starts in Woodward’s place. It’s very unlikely that Woodward will be playing every day at short for the Jays for the balance of the season unless his defense surges AND Bordick struggles badly with the bat.

REED’EM AND WEEP:

With Shannon Stewart due back from the 15 day DL on Thursday it seems that Reed Johnson is unlikely to continue to see time atop the Jay’s order. Reed showed well in his stint leading off for Toronto, and with budgetary concerns looming for the Blue Jays there is the real possibility that Stewart, who will become a free-agent at the end of the year, will be dealt elsewhere before the trade deadline.

While this move does weaken the Jays offense, arguably Johnson is better defensively, and if shedding Stewart allowed the Jays to keep both Lidle and Escobar to the end of the season it may be a deal the front office decides is the correct one to make.