Jays Report - How will 2003 end, and 2004 begin?

The bell has indeed tolled in Toronto. The Jays have convincingly proven over the past 6 weeks that they simply are not good enough yet to make noise in the AL Wild card race.

That being said, lets take a look at what is likely to happen for the Bluebirds for next year.

1. The Pitching Staff will be overhauled:

Yes, this is something of a no-brainer. The Jays pitching ranks 11th in WHIP, 10th in opponents OBP, home run’s allowed, and ERA, and second last in opponents batting average at a gaudy .281. So, it’s obvious this team has to get better in the arms race or else no real progress can be made.

With that in mind here is the likely fate of several hurlers.

Tanyon Sturtze: didn’t get it done this year – he won’t be resigned.

Pete Walker: has a chance to be back – he’s well liked for his cerebral approach to the game, and depending on how he finishes this season (Walker is due to start this week) he has an even money chance to be back in some sort of spot starting long relief role.

Cory Lidle: perhaps if he can finish the year decently he could be resigned at a far reduced price. I’m torn on this. I think Lidle is far better than he has shown this year, but not as good as everyone hoped. If the asking price is right I think the Jays should grab Lidle. After all it’s not like they have a host of young arms ready to take over.

Dan Reichert: I was enthused when I found out the Jays had signed the former Kansas City lefty, because I had remembered him befuddling the Jays. However, Reichert simply does not have the control to succeed in the majors as his criminal career K/BB ratio of 229-219 would indicate.

Corey Thurman and Josh Towers: Both are young enough to still have a chance to carve out useful major league careers, but if you are expecting big things, better revise those expectations downwards. Thurman may yet develop into a competent end of the rotation arm, but Towers, is in trouble.

After allowing a high, but not insanely high, 21 HR’s in the first 140.1 innings of his career (his rookie season), Towers has been raked for 18 taters in his past 33 innings (encompassing two seasons). Towers also has to be tougher on lefties – they hit a career .325 off him.

If Josh can do those two things he might, might, have a chance to challenge for a fifth spot in the rotation next year – don’t bet on that or Towers though. It’s too bad, because he has shown a willingness to get ahead of batters, but seems to lack a great out-pitch to take advantage of that aggressiveness.

Mark Hendrickson: Carlos Tosca is growing impatient with Hendrickson’s inability to consistently pitch inside.

Hendrickson is an odd bird. He has good control (averaging just 2.15BB/9 innings) but is in the strike zone too much – opponents hit .315 off of him. When he’s on though he can be very effective –as his 10 quality starts this year indicate (using the 6IP 2ER definition).

Hendrickson is also night and day – or maybe that should be home and away. In Toronto Mark has a 7.94 ERA, but away from the dome Mark owns a 3.55 mark.

The consistency problem lies in his height, Hendrickson is 6-9. With such length there are far more opportunities for his mechanics to get off kilter, leading to Hendrickson catching too much of the strike zone and getting hit hard.

Hendrickson is diligent in trying to get ahead of batters but often leaves the pitches too far over the plate. Evidence of this is the fact that hitters torch Hendrickson for a .398 average on 0-0, or 0-1 pitches.

Curiously, Hendrickson seems to get better the deeper he goes into counts. Opponents hit just .249 after a 1-1 count, .224 after a 2-2 count (but, strangely, .277 on the 1-2 pitch) and .231 after a 3-2 count (partially due to the walk factor). I expect these numbers can be partially accounted for by the fact that liekly when he is in these counts consistently Hendrickson is working inside – missing some of the time, but keeping the hitter off balance and therefore pitching more effectively.

Tall pitchers often need additional patience due to the mechanics issues. Look how long it took Randy Johnson to find his way, of course Randy had the league’s best fastball. Hendrickson doesn’t have anywhere near Johnson’s stuff, and it’s risky banking on a overly tall control pitcher.

Having said that the Jays need to remember Hendrickson has a lot less experience than most hurlers his age. I think Mark should and will get another season to show his worth – if he can show real improvement then Hendrickson could stick around for a while.

Trever Miller: After getting hammered in his first month in the bigs since the 2000 season, Miller has settled down nicely. He hasn’t let opponents hit more than .231 in any given month since April, and is holding opponents to a .162 average since the All-Star break. As long as Miller can keep lefties hitting at a sub .200 clip he’ll have a job – currently he’s got them flailing away for a .175 average.

The jury is out though as to whether or not Miller can get the big outs.

Jason Kershner: Take away the bloodbath in Seattle (where he allowed six runs on six hits and a walk in an inning and a third) and Kershner has some pretty nice numbers.

Even including the Seattle scene Kershner is sporting a .215 OBA and a 1.10 WHIP. Without it those #’s drop to .177 and .94 – pretty heady stuff.

At 26 and with his control ever improving Kershner also will be back for the Jays. Without dominating stuff though (6K’s per 9 innings) Kerhsner will have to show the ability to continually adjust in order to carve out a major league career.

Cliff Politte: His future is cloudy at best – not a good long term investment at this point. Has been solid since coming back from injury but would need to finish outstandingly well to get back the closer job. Tosca doesn’t trust him right now.

Aquilino Lopez: Not quite ready for prime time. His control can still desert him, and when it does he gets in trouble. However, Lopez has shown repeated stretches of dominance in his rookie year that bode well for his career. Could get the majority of save opportunities for the balance of the year.

Bob File/Justin Miller/Josh Arnold: The three young arms most likely to pitch next season for the Jays.

File has finally recovered from surgery back in the 2002 off-season and has looked good in limited innings in Syracuse. File had a very strong rookie year in 2002 and the Jays are now hopeful that he could again become a key component of the ‘pen.

Arnold, the top prospect the Jays received in the deal tore through AA New Haven, but has had some problems adjusting to AAA. However he is still a good bet to see the majors in the later half of 2004.

Miller is recovering from shoulder surgery and the prognosis is good for the right-hander who won 9 games in his rookie year. Miller is a classic example of a guy who if he can straighten out control problems, can be very effective. He’ll get the chance to show that his strong second half last year was a portent of things to come.

2. Improve the defense:

Some of this will have to come from within. The Jays expect to see the Eric Hinske of the second half of 2002 not the Hinske who has struggled to defend the position this year. Since Eric was slowed by a wrist injury this season that may be a fair expectation.

This improvement on defense is important to Chris Woodward who has declined both at the plate and in the field from last season. This is Woodward’s first full season, and the Jays don’t yet have a SS ready in their system, but Chris’ days may be numbered. He simply has to be better at short where a year ago he seemed to project as average to slightly above average, but this season has been far short of that.

Some pressure will be on Orlando Hudson as well. Hudson entered the season on GM Riccardi’s “list”, mainly for some comments Hudson made about how Riccardi looked “like a pimp” (the O-Dawg though only meant the best).

With his generally strong play this year Hudson has secured his Jays future, Hudson’s defense has to continue to come along. He’s shown a disturbing tendency to make the same mistake multiple times – that has to stop or Hudson could again be on the block.

In the outfield the defensive improvement means that Reed Johnson’s solid run may be interrupted. Jayson Werth was the organization's preferred choice to suceed Shanon Stewart, but Johnson impressed with his hustle and hit so well out of the gate (.326 in his first 141 AB’s) that Werth, who struggled this year, was dropped in the depth chart.

Werth though has the potential to be an excellent defensive outfielder and Johnson is hitting a more pedestrian .231 since July 1st which means that it’s likely the third outfield job will be wide-open come spring 2004. Don’t count out Gabe Gross either, the former #1 pick of the Jays has been solid in AAA ball this year with .291/.389/.507 splits for the Sky Chiefs.

Depending on how Werth and Gross show over the balance of the year Frank Catalanotto could find himself under pressure to rediscover his stroke, as “Cat”, with the bad knees is not a sure bet to be able to play full time in the outfield.

However, it’s unlikely the Jays would go with Wells and two of Werth, Johnson or Gross in the outfield so Catalanotto is likely back.

3. Keep the offense consistent.

The Jays were world beaters to start the year in the American League. Largely due to an offense that seemed poised to smash all known records. Of course nobody ever stays “on pace” and so the Jays have settled into a top-tier offense squad.

Close inspection though shows that this status is somewhat tenuous. Of the five young Jays who made splashes in 2002 – only two, Vernon Wells and Orlando Hudson have equaled or improved on their “rookie” numbers.

Wells has obviously continued to mature into a top flight star. Wells has driven his batting average up 34 points vs 2002, his OBP 47 points and his slugging an impressive 100 points.

Hudson’s slugging has slipped from .443 to .395, but the middle infielder has started to learn the Jays offensive strategy and has done a better job drawing walks in pushing his OBP from .319 to .337. If Hudson can continue that trend the Jays will be very happy.

Meanwhile Chris Woodward has seen his numbers drop across the board, most notably in his Slg % down 61 points. Since Woodward has little pedigree as a hitter before last year there is real reason for concern if you are a Woodward owner.

Eric Hinske has fought injuries and inconsistency and while he remains a doubles machine (32 in just 323 AB’s) he has been a far cry from last year’s rookie of the year. Hinske should turn it around, but when he was acquired nay-sayers were not sure that he had a legit major league bat. Is this just a lost season or have pitchers begun to figure Eric out?

Most worrisome is Josh Phelps. Phelps tore up the league in the second half of last year but has struggled badly this year and especially of late, losing 50 points on his average and 135 on his slugging. While Josh has continued to draw walks to help mitigate his struggles the fact remains that Phelps is very much a question mark.

Some in Toronto feel Carlos Tosca has badly mismanaged Phelps. The thinking goes that Josh is now very much in doubt of his major league abilities both at the plate and in the field, and that Phelps needs to be seeing at bats consistently in order to develop.

Phelps was forecast as a short term DH and a long term replacement for Carlos Delgado at first base. That plan may be in doubt – and Phelps who looked to be a hitting machine, is now starting to resemble Ken Phelps.

Frank Catalanotto started hot, but his average had slipped in every month until he started seeing the ball a bit better in August. While “Cat-man” may not be the .340 hitter he was in April, the Jays need him to be over .300 – considering that Catalanotto does not walk a ton (27 this season) or hit for a great deal of power for an outfielder (.444 Slg).

As a free agent the Jays would likely like to resign Catalanotto, but the price will have to be right.

Add to that the fact that Greg Myers and Tom Wilson both had career years this season, and that at least one is likely to be lured away in the off-season, or (in the case of Myers) traded before the post-season roster deadline in late August and that adds another hole to be addressed.

Kevin Cash, the current “catcher of the future” is an excellent receiver but has limited offensive upside.

4. Continue to restock the farm

The Jays system gave up all it’s riches in 2002 when four home grown players (Wells, Hudson, Woodward and Phelps) all made the bigs. Now there are several good prospects in the system, but the Jays do not yet have the sort of ever replenishing farm that say the Montreal Expos or Oakland A’s do.

In the near term Gabe Gross, Josh Arnold, outfielder Alex Rios, catcher Guillermo Quiroz and shortstop Russ Adams may all be ready for either significant or “trainee” roles by 2005.

What this means though is that Toronto, despite not moving Corey Lidle or Kelvim Escobar at the break is likely to be in a seller mode for the next season at least.

I hope this helps you in your plans this season and next for your Toronto Blue Jays fanta-players.