Off to the Races

Projected Starters (through Sunday)

April 2 - Woody Williams vs. MIL
April 3 - Garrett Stephenson vs. MIL
April 4 - Brett Tomko vs. HOU
April 5 - Jason Simontacchi vs. HOU
April 6 - Matt Morris vs. HOU

Stephenson Rejoins Rotation

In a rather anti-climactic battle, Garrett Stephenson claimed the fifth spot in the rotation over fellow rehab project Cal Eldred with a strong spring (3.12 ERA in 26 innings). A former 16-game winner with the Cardinals before Tommy John Surgery a few years ago, Stephenson will be attempting to make a full-time return to the rotation for the second year in a row. In 2002, he was ineffective before finally spending two prolonged stints on the disabled list with back and shoulder problems. He burned many a fantasy owner last season, but still has the potential to put up a solid win total with one of the best offenses in the league behind him. Stephenson's primary job will be to keep the ball in the park and let the phenomenal defense behind him (more on that in a bit) retire hitters for him.

Bullpen Shakeup

Originally considered to be one of the major strengths of the club, the bullpen that travelled north with the Cardinals is suddenly a question mark. Most importantly, Jason Isringhausen will be on the disabled list for about the first month of the season, but the roots of the problem run much deeper. Primary setup man Steve Kline will close in Isringhausen's absence, which suddenly leaves a pretty big hole in the eighth inning.

The team brought three non-roster-invitees with them from Florida in Kiko Calero, Lance Painter, and Russ Springer. Calero is a former starting pitching prospect from the Royals organization who had a strong showing this spring in relief (0 runs, 3 hits, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts in 8 spring innings). Painter is in his second stint with the Cardinals and has a career ERA of 5.23. He'll be used primarily as a lefty specialist so that Jeff Fassero and Kline will have a chance to expand their roles with the club beyond a lefty specialist role. Springer is a hard throwing righthander who also excelled this Spring, but has a career ERA of 5.09. He pitched in the opener and ended up with the win despite allowing Brewers catcher Eddie Perez' first homer since 1999 in his only inning of work.

Fassero, Dustin Hermanson, and Eldred will fill out the bullpen until Isringhausen rejoins the club. Eldred, who was virtually anointed the number four starter in the preseason, failed to retire a hitter in the opener while allowing three hits, including a two-run homer by Richie Sexson.

The most notable absences are Al Levine, who was the Cardinals top free agent acquisition in the offseason, and Mike Crudale, who was lights out as a rookie last season, and projected to be the primary right-handed setup man. Levine was given his outright release, while Crudale was optioned to AAA Memphis and should rejoin the club at some point this season. Rick Ankiel was also sent back to the minors despite a solid showing this Spring.

Gold Glove Paradise

While many fantasy owners consider the Cardinals tremendous offensive punch as the primary reason to acquire one of their pitchers, the defense is often overlooked. Fernando Vina, Edgar Renteria, Scott Rolen, and Jim Edmonds are all coming off of gold glove seasons in 2002, and Mike Matheny and Tino Martinez are also stellar defensive players who have won gold gloves in the past. With a defense like this, Cardinal hurlers can be counted on to keep their ERA down by an average of 0.25 and a WHIP about 0.1 below where it would be with an average defensive team behind them. The only negative from a fantasy perspective is that the Cardinal hurlers don't always have to try and blow people away, leading to lower strikeout totals than they would have with some teams.

The Walking Wounded

J.D. Drew - Well, color me shocked. J.D. Drew, who has spent about 1/3 of his time since he came to St. Louis on the disabled list, opened the season on the DL as he recovers from offseason knee surgery. As we've been reporting since February, Drew will probably be out until mid-May, although the Cardinals finally made that news official last week.

Jim Edmonds - Edmonds was on the opening day roster, but will be babied along for the first few weeks of the season with a calf injury. He was pinch-run for throughout most of the spring, and was replaced on Opening Day by Kerry Robinson after notching his first hit in the fifth inning.

Jason Isringhausen - Again, this is nothing new. Isringhausen should miss the first three weeks of the season after his most recent shoulder surgery. Izzy is a constant health risk who took two trips to the DL last season and averages one trip under the knife per offseason.

Joe Girardi - Girardi, the Cardinals only real offseason free-agent signee other than Levine (cut), has hit the disabled list with complications due to a herniated disc. The injury is said to potentially be career threatening, but will keep him out for at least four to six weeks. At Girardi's age (38), retirement would be less than shocking. The most important role that this plays with the club is that they will only be carrying Mike Matheny as a full-time catcher, with Eli Marrero, who is already covering for Drew in right field, expected to see some starts behind the plate.

Eli Marrero - While he remained in the game, the Cardinals had a scary moment in the opener when Eli Marrero collided with second baseman Fernando Vina as he made a diving catch in shallow right field. Marrero was on the ground for about five minutes, and was clutching his hip when the trainers attempted to help him off the field. As the club's starting right fielder and only backup catcher, an injury to Marrero would have been extremely costly.

Lineup Breakdown

The lineup is in the order that Tony Larussa had the club bat on opening day, although Larussa is a micro-manager who often shifts his lineup around.

Fernando Vina (2b) - Vina is far from elite as a fantasy player at his position, but is a player that won't hurt many teams. He consistently hits for a solid average, but has little power and is a below average base-stealer.

Edgar Renteria (SS) - Renteria is the top shortstop in the National League, and the fifth best option in the majors. He's a well-rounded hitter who has the power to hit twenty homers if everything breaks right with an average around .300. He also has the best speed of anyone on the team, and is above average in all offensive departments. Depending upon where Larussa chooses to bat Renteria, Edgar could be a bigtime stolen base threat or a strong run-producer.

Jim Edmonds (CF) - Edmonds is a top 25 outfielder in mixed leagues, and a top 15 NL outfielder. Provided that he remains healthy, with Albert Pujols batting behind him, Edmonds should see enough good pitches to surpass 30 homers this season. If the top of the order manages to get on in front of him, Edmonds should return to his 110 RBI form in 2001. Don't expect a lot of stolen bases, and cross your fingers that he doesn't injure himself in the field.

Albert Pujols (LF) - Pujols is a top five outfielder in both NL and mixed leagues who should compete for the NL MVP again. In just his third full season, Pujols has already finished in the top three in MVP voting twice. Much like Edmonds, Pujols won't be stealing a lot of bases, but he has the power to hit 40 homers with 120+ RBI while hitting over .300.

Scott Rolen (3b) - Rolen is clearly the top third baseman in NL-only leagues, and should be rated no lower than third in mixed leagues, although he could easily be considered the top third sacker in the game. He plays fantastic defense at the hot corner and is a consistent .280 hitter with 30 homer power. He should see plenty of RBI opportunities behind Edmonds and Pujols.

Tino Martinez (1b) - He may be past his prime, but Tino Martinez is still a good option in NL-only leagues and a solid backup or utility player (aka DH) in mixed leagues. In what was considered an off year last season, Tino still hit .262 with 21 homers and 75 RBI.

Eli Marrero (RF) - While Marrero's fantasy strength doesn't lie in the outfield (he's eligible at catcher), he would be a serviceable fourth outfielder/bench player at the position. As a catcher, he's a top five NL catcher and is a top ten catcher in mixed leagues. Marrero brings rare speed at the position and has fifteen to twenty homer pop. His spot in the order doesn't put him in a major run-producing role, and he's not a great average hitter, but he should put similar numbers up to what he did last season (.262-18-66 with 14 steals).

Mike Matheny (C) - To say that Matheny is primarily a defensive catcher would be overrating his offensive ability. Matheny is arguably the top all-around defensive backstop in the game right now, but that doesn't make him a quality fantasy player. Anything more than a .250 average with 5 homers and 50 RBI would be a shock. Don't even bank on him coming close to that, but his (lack of a) bat will stay in the lineup regardless.

Rotation

Matt Morris - While he didn't look that great in his opening day start, Morris is one of very few pitchers that can claim the title of a fantasy ace. He should win 20 this season with an ERA in the low three's.

Woody Williams - Williams slipped under a lot of fantasy owners' radar this spring because he wasn't very durable last season, but is a solid #3 starter in mixed leagues (#2 in NL leagues) who has kept his ERA well under three for the past season and a half and should win 15-18 games.

Brett Tomko - Although he won't pitch from the #3 spot to start the year, Tomko is being counted upon to be the #3 starter on this club. Regardless of where he's pitching, it's a mistake to grab him as anything more than a back of the rotation starter in mixed leagues or a #4 in NL leagues. Tomko has simply been too hittable throughout his career and yielded a lot of homers in one of the better pitcher's parks in the league last season. Now in neutral Busch, Tomko should have to prove himself before he earns a regular starting gig on fantasy teams.

Jason Simontacchi - Simontacchi was the name on everyone's lips early last season, and it should be interesting to see if he can translate his 2002 success into the long term. He was never praised as a big prospect throughout his minor league career, and he didn't make the big leagues until he was 29 years old. He tailed off in the second half last season, and those second half numbers should be closer to what any fantasy owner expects than his full season numbers.

Garrett Stephenson - Stephenson should end up with a solid win total, but will likely hurt most fantasy squads in every other area. If you really want to take a chance, make sure he's starting off on the bench. Like Tomko and Simontacchi, Stephenson will have to prove himself to make a fantasy rotation unless it's a very deep league.

Add/Acquire

* Would most likely have to be acquired through trade

Steve Kline
Jim Edmonds *
Woody Williams *

Hold

Edgar Renteria
Scott Rolen
Jim Edmonds
Albert Pujols
Eli Marrero
Matt Morris

Drop/Deal

* Attempt to trade if you can get at or above his current market value back

Mike Crudale
Cal Eldred
Garrett Stephenson
Brett Tomko *
Jason Simontacchi *
Fernando Vina *
Jason Isringhausen *

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Feel free to send me any specific questions or comments at royalcards@fantasyinfocentral.com or post your questions in the Cardinals Forum.