Cardinals Correspondent Report: March 2002 Archives

March 31, 2002

Season Preview

Season Preview

By: James Meyerriecks
Date: March 25, 2002

2001 Final Standings: 93-69 (T-1st NL Central)

Projected Batting Order

Fernando Vina, 2b - Vina remains one of the better leadoff men in baseball, but, unfortunately, he does it without being a major fantasy contributor. He'll likely hit around .300, but has never stolen more than 22 bases or hit more than 9 HR in a season. He's fantastic because he does anything and everything that he has to in order to get on base. He rarely strikes out (35 Ks in 631 AB last season) and consistently leads the league in being hit by pitches. He's a scrapper who isn't likely to hurt you a whole lot at second, but isn't likely to help you outside of his Avg./OBP/Runs.

Projection: .295 Avg. with 100 R, 6 HR, 40 RBI, and 20 SB

Placido Polanco, 3b - Polanco is a utility man who will qualify at 2b, SS, and 3b in most leagues. For those of you who haven't seen it in the "Recent News" section, Manager Tony Larussa has officially said that Polanco will be the starter at 3b, with slugger Albert Pujols moving to LF. Another prototypical player for his spot in the order, Polanco's main strength is putting the ball in play and moving runners over. He has almost no power to speak of (3 HR in 564 AB last season, and just 9 in the last 3 years), and has mediocre speed, but he will likely hit .300 for the third straight season.

Projection: .310, 80 R, 4 HR, 40 RBI, 10 SB

J.D. Drew, RF - As always, the question is his health. He's limped around on a gimpy ankle throughout spring training thus far, and pulled himself from a game last week, evoking a tantrum from Larussa. He's compared those creaky knees of his to a lesser version of what Mark McGwire had, and refuses to play through pain at times. IF he's healthy, expect him to break out this year. Drew is loaded with power and speed, and has a consistent stroke at the plate. One problem will be that Larussa has been vocal about how he'll be gun-shy with Drew on the base paths this year because of the above ankle and knee problem, which will hurt his speed numbers.

Projection: .320, 90 R, 40 HR, 110 RBI, 15 SB

Albert Pujols, LF - The move to LF could affect his value in keeper leagues, as his numbers (while outstanding at any position) aren't as head and shoulders above the rest in the outfield. Still, you can probably expect him to play 20+ games at 3b, as Polanco will spell Vina and SS Edgar Renteria at times this year, leaving 3b (his natural position) vacant. Pujols will become a consistent 4-category producer in 5X5 leagues for years, as he's got 50 homer power and hits well for average. He'll need to avoid the sophomore jinx, but his recovery from a slump last July shows that he has the maturity to make it through.

Projection: .310, 95 R, 35 HR, 110 RBI, 2 SB

Jim Edmonds, CF - Edmonds is a notch below Pujols and Drew in the OF, but is still in the upper echelon of Fantasy Outfielders. He came back to earth last season after an amazing 2000 season, as many of his homers turned back into doubles. He's still a professional hitter, and will hover somewhere around .300, and has the potential to hit 30 homers again. With a loaded lineup ahead of him and newcomer Tino Martinez likely to bat behind him, look for solid run-producing numbers from Edmonds again.

Projection: .290, 90 R, 27 HR, 96 RBI, 8 SB

Tino Martinez, 1b - Martinez comes in with a winning attitude from the Yankees to join a team that was strong enough to win a share of the Division title last season. At the very least, he will be a significant upgrade over last season's hapless performance by Mark McGwire. Still, it will be interesting to see which Tino shows up. The one who was amazing from 1995-1998 with the Yankees? Or the one who looked like his production was ready to drop off in '99 and '00 before cranking it back up in his contract year last season? He's still a safe bet to threaten the 100 RBI mark for the 7th time in 8 years, and he brings an edge and a swagger to the team that they just didn't seem to have before he showed up.

Projections: .275, 75 R, 25 HR, 98 RBI, 2 SB

Mike Matheny, C - If Fantasy Baseball valued defense, he'd be among the best Catchers to have in the league. However, most leagues don't award defense, and you'd be hard-pressed to find one that put enough of an emphasis on his D behind the plate for Matheny to help you. If you're absolutely desperate in a 25-team league, he MIGHT be worth a shot. Honestly, though, he'll hurt your Avg. more than he'll help you with any power numbers.

Projections: .230, 30 R, 7 HR, 35 RBI, 0 SB

Edgar Renteria, SS - Renteria had an awful start last season, battling injury much of the way, and came back big in the second half. He still could only muster hitting .019 below his career Avg., and never really seemed to have the juice to catch up with his expected speed or power numbers. Larussa will likely be batting either Edgar or Tino Martinez in the 8th slot, as he's said he wants someone with a decent OBP batting 8th. Mike Matheny absolutely does not fill that bill, and could ruin any bottom of the order chances at RBI for either Renteria or Martinez with his propensity for grounding into the double play. Regardless, Renteria is still only 26, has a career average that hovers around .280, has shown he has the power to threaten 20, and has stolen 40 bases once, and 30 three times in his career. In short, you can do much worse at SS. Look for him to rebound with a big year, which would be an even better year if he had any hope of runners on base for him, or anyone behind him to drive him in.

Projections: .285, 75 R, 18 HR, 75 RBI, 35 SB

Rotation

Matt Morris - Morris proved he was at the level he was before he had Tommy John Surgery almost 3 years ago, posting 22 wins and an astounding 3.16 ERA. Look for his numbers to continue to improve, as he’s hitting his prime at 27, and should be an ace for years to come. He does need to improve his performance on the road a bit though.

Projections: 21-9, 3.04 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 180 K

Darryl Kile - Many will be down on him because he may miss his first 1 or 2 starts. You need to know better. Kile is a workhorse, having made an average of 34 starts over the past 6 years, and never having made less than 32. He's a safe bet for a low-to-mid 3 ERA and almost a lock for 16 wins.

Projections: 18-10, 3.28 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 190 K

Woody Williams - The journeyman RHP came to the Cards in a post-deadline waiver deal with San Diego last year and proceeded to go 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA and a .97 WHIP in 11 starts the rest of the way with the Cards. Obviously, expecting him to repeat this would be ludicrous, but it’s not out of the realm to expect a mid-3 ERA with 14 wins on a contending team.

Projections: 15-8, 3.56 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 140 K

Bud Smith - In 14 starts over the second half of the season last year, the rookie went 6-3 with a 1.22 WHIP and a 3.83 ERA. He may be due for some kind of sophomore slump, as the league has seen his stuff now, and the hitters will adjust to him. However, he has fantastic control and has shown he's mature enough to adjust himself, and should be ok in the long haul. It may be a rocky start though.

Projections: 12-11, 4.02 ERA, 1.3 WHIP, 150 K

Garrett Stephenson - It's really hard to talk up a guy who's coming back less than a year after Tommy John Surgery, but Stephenson has been fantastic this spring and earned his spot in the rotation. The question of how his arm will hold up may be another story. Somewhat lost in the shuffle with people salivating over a 16-game winner from 2 years ago coming back is that he posted a 4.49 ERA that year, and isn't a fantastic K pitcher. If you really want to take a chance, go ahead.

Projections: 8-5, 4.75 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 105 K

Bench

Kerry Robinson, OF - Robinson is a catalyst who will be brought in to pinch run a lot off the bench. He should also see some time against RHP if Larussa decides that it's time for Vina or Renteria to take a day off and Pujols shifts to 3b while Polanco covers them. Could be worth a look in real deep leagues if there's an injury. He has little power to speak of, but is a hometown boy with good speed.

Eli Marrero, C - Much like the problem in Detroit, a potential standout offensive Catcher is stuck behind a defensive whiz. His best shot was to win the LF job, but, in all honesty, his only hope was that Larussa would stay true to his original word that Polanco was to valuable as a utility man to play a starting role. If given playing time, he could hit .270 with 15 homers and 15 steals.

Miguel Cairo, IF - His claim to fame as a Cardinal will probably always be that Mike Shannon called him a "lucky little peanut" when he hit a game winning single down the stretch last season. He has very little power, but runs fairly well, and will mainly be used off the bench, possibly to replace Pujols at 3b in some late inning situations.

Bullpen

Jason Isringhausen, Closer - Izzy has been brought in and will definitely be the closer, something which the Cards didn't truly have last year (Veres/Kline committee). He struggled early in Oakland last year, but closed out strong, and, at the age of 30, seems to have accepted his role as a closer. He should improve on last year as he's got another year of experience, and is no longer adjusting.

Projections: 2-3, 42 Saves, 2.5 ERA, 1.1 WHIP, 90 K

Steve Kline - Some seem to think that, with Veres being moved to a setup role too (unless he's dealt somewhere), Kline will see a drop in his innings this season and become a lefty specialist. He remains very effective against righties (.239 average last season), and Larussa knows that he's the workhorse of the 'pen. Don't expect his amazing 1.80 ERA from last year, but don't expect anything over 3 either, and expect Larussa's hunches to give him somewhere in the neighborhood of 5 saves this season. Even in a 5X5 league, the quality innings that he eats up will help you, despite the absence of wins and saves.

Projections: 6-2, 6 Saves, 2.4 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 60 K, 30 Holds

Dave Veres - If the Cards have their way, Veres will probably be somewhere else in the near future. Veres, Mike Timlin, and Andy Benes dramatically increase the payroll of this team, and don't earn their keep. He could be shipped off to a team that needs a closer, and that would drastically increase his value, but for now, don't expect too much.

Projections: 3-4, 2 Saves, 4.25 ERA, 65 K, 15 Holds

Mike Timlin - Timlin and Veres basically fit in the same boat. When the Cards got them, they were closing games for other teams, and are paid accordingly. On this team, that's not what they're asked to do, and are thus overpaid, average middle relievers. Veres remains the more solid of the 2, but either could get a shot to close if they were shipped off to the right team.

Andy Benes - Benes and his $6 million salary will likely spot start and mop up in long relief for the Cards this season. He should see a few starts at the beginning of the year, as Kile doesn't appear to be ready yet. If he pitches well, there could be a team or 2 that's looking for a middle of the road starter to fill out their rotation and he might be able to help you, but he doesn't appear to have too much left in the tank.

Gene Stechshulte and Mike Matthews will likely fill out the bullpen, and neither really has value in 5X5 leagues. Matthews should see his role diminish a bit as long as Benes remains in town, as he was used several times to spot start last season, and is more of a long reliever. Stechshulte should have a little value in leagues with Holds, but not much elsewhere.

Correspondent's Note I:

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James Meyerriecks

Cardinals & Royals Lead Correspondent

Posted by James Meyerriecks at 04:06 PM

March 13, 2002

March 13, 2002 - Spring Training Report

By: James Meyerriecks
Date: March 13, 2002

LATEST TEAM INFO:

Several new faces were brought into camp in the offseason. Most notably, closer Jason Isringhausen and 1b Tino Martinez have had a large part in changing the complexion of this team. It appears that the other new face, Japanese import So Taguchi, will struglle to make the team.

Isringhausen has come over from Oakland as a Free Agent, leaving the team with 4 closers/former closers in the bullpen (Izzy, Steve Kline, Dave Veres, and Mike Timlin). Veres, in particular, should benefit from this move. He'll either be dealt to a team in search of a closer (see the Rumor Mill below) or be a primary setup man for the Cards. Having a defined role may be the key to his production, as the pressure seemed to get to him last year. Overall, the addition of Isringhausen will boost the strength of the bullpen, which should do a fantastic job of holding leads for the starters this season.

When Martinez arrived in camp, nobody would have guessed that he had any pressure on him to replace future Hall of Fame slugger Mark McGwire. He brought a winning, relaxed attitude with him from the Yankees, and his skills as a leader in the clubhouse should play a huge part in the Cards unseating the Astros as NL Central Champs this year. It may not show in the box scores, but Tino will be a huge reason this team could win 100 + games.

LOCAL PERSPECTIVE:

There continues to be somewhat of an outcry about the proposed new stadium in St. Louis. Busch has provided many memorable moments over the years, and it'll be a shame to see it go. At last check, the Cardinals had threatened to move the team to East St. Louis, Illinois if the proposal isn't ratified, but many think that the threat is idle.

Many local fans are in support of hometown boy Kerry Robinson to play a larger role with the Cards this year. His speed and energy were vital down the stretch last season as the Cards pulled out the NL Wild Card. Robinson could be a decent fit in the currently vacant LF, but shouldn't strike too many fantasy owners as a viable option. He could hit .275 as a starter with 20 steals, but has little power to speak of, and would likely bat near the bottom of the order.

Position Battles:

The lineup appears set, with the exception of an everyday LF. Candidates for the LF job include Al Martin, So Taguchi, Placido Polanco, Eli Marrero, and Kerry Robinson. Polanco will likely be out because he's too valuable as a utility man to manager Tony Larussa. So Taguchi appears ready to go back to Japan. Al Martin's just another lefty in a lineup that's already overloaded with them. The only player to watch here from a fantasy perspective is Marrero. He's got decent power, decent speed, and will be eligible at Catcher for fantasy owners.

The other battle would be for the fifth spot in the rotation. RH Andy Benes will likely break camp as the #5, as his contract is too ridiculously large for the Cards to justify sending him to the minors again. Combine that with the fact that LH phenom Rick Ankiel looks like he's certainly not ready, and that Garrett Stephenson will likely be brought along slowly (see Matt Morris 2 years ago, and you'll know why), and the job seems to be Andy's to lose.

INJURIES:

Darryl Kile seems to be progressing nicely as he rehabs from shoulder surgery. He's made a simulated start so far, and is expected to make his first Spring Training start some time this week. Larussa will baby him a bit at first, probably limiting him to 75-90 pitches in April, and possibly letting him miss a start. He should break camp in the 5th slot, but he remains the co-#1 with Matt Morris. Don't be concerned, though. Kile has made 34 starts in each of the last 2 seasons, and hasn't made less than 32 starts in 6 years.

Rick Ankiel is skipping his second consecutive start of the Spring. He's still complaining about soreness in his pitching elbow after having been rocked in his first, and only, start by the Expos. It can't be helped but to think that maybe this is a little mental. He'll likely make another start or 2 this Spring, but don't expect him to break camp in the rotation. Expect him to be called up some time in May or June, as the Cards continue to try and let him get his head back.

J.D. Drew appears to be back and at full speed from the ankle injury that he'd aggravated. Keep an eye on him all year. If he's healthy, he'll be a stud OF, but he's never played more than 135 games.

RUMOR MILL:

Look for Veres to be shopped around a bit, possibly to the Dodgers or Orioles, who both seem to be pressing a bit to find a closer. The Cards are on the lookout for someone who can contribute this season in LF, and the team would probably be willing to deal Veres and a prospect for Brian Jordan.

Andy Benes will likely break camp as the #5 starter, possibly to be showcased a bit. His 6 million dollar salary would appear to make him untradeable, but someone might bite.

QUICK VIEW:

Add:

Darryl Kile (new) - Many will shy away from him early, so he may be available in the mid-rounds of your draft. He's a weak #1/strong #2 starter for most fantasy teams, so grab him if he's there in the 6th or 7th.

Woody Williams (new) - His stats from last year look like those of a #4 or #5 fantasy starter, but keep in mind that he went 7-1 with a 2.28 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP in 11 starts AFTER being traded to St. Louis. He's looked great this Spring, having given up only 1 run in 11 innings over his 3 starts.

Edgar Renteria (new) - Renteria will have dropped on many peoples' lists, having had an off year last year. Keep in mind that, prior to last season, most considered him the best SS in the NL. He's still young (26) and he has 20 homer power to go along with 40 steal speed. Throw in that he's a clutch hitter, and you could be looking at a .290 average and should reasonably expect 15 homers and 25 steals. Considering that he'll likely be available after the 10th round in most leagues, he’s a great option at short.

Eli Marrero (new) - Keep an eye on the LF spot. If Marrero wins it, he'll give you 4th OF numbers at the catcher slot, and is worth a late gamble.

Drop:

Andy Benes (new) - Even though he'll be in the rotation on opening day, he's not a viable starter on any fantasy team. He may work for the occasional day to day pickup in head to head leagues.

Bud Smith (new) - I never thought I'd say this, and the kid should NOT be dropped in any keeper league, or dropped at all really. He should be lowered on your draft board. Remember Barry Zito and his struggles at the start of last season? That had something to do with his second time through the league. He didn't adjust his stuff to deal with teams he faced, and they'd seen what he had before. Expect some rough patches to start the season for Bud, but he has the repertoire, the maturity, and outstanding control that will help him get through it. Look for a big second half from the kid, but don't expect him to break out of the gates fast.