CUBS - 6/27/02

LATEST TEAM INFO: 32-43, Fifth in National League Central.

First things first:

Yes, Raffy, we should have kept you. We will always love Gracie, but the Cubs messed up. Surprise.

The Cubs, with a BIG three-game winning streak two days ago, the Cubs squandered a chance Tuesday to move within eight games of the .500 mark for the first time since May 10, when they were 13-21, and were a win from being in third place in the NL Central. Then, the Cubs helped the Reds end their eight-game losing streak by serving up seven HR and stranding 23 runners on base in the last two games. You’re welcome.

The Cubs: last in batting average; last in bullpen ERA.

But, hey, at least the Cubs aren’t former Chicago pitching coach Oscar Acosta. After Don Baylor canned Acosta after doing a great job with the Cubs pitching staff last season, Acosta and the Texas Rangers were in town last week. Despite having his Ranger staff go from the fourth best in the AL to the second worst in the previous month, he had to feel pretty good returning to Wrigley. Well, after the Rangers won 2-of-3 from the Cubs, and the airplane landed in Pittsburgh, Texas fired Acosta. Just because he has “issues” with authority (i.e. dictators = Baylor).

So, it could be worse. Hm.

Anyway ….

Rotation:
The little bit of concern regarding Jon Lieber has subsided. Spectacular performances have been Lieber's trademark, but a seven-start stretch during which he went 0-4 record sparked concerns about his physical state. Then came a 5-1, complete-game victory June 9th against the Seattle Mariners. That sparked a stellar 3-0 run with a 1.88 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP in his last three starts. Lieber tries to shun the No.1, top-gun label, but the Cubs need the veteran leadership he’s provided this month – now, more than ever.

Mark Prior is an amazing kid. Over his last three starts, he has three no decisions, despite a respectable 3.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. With Prior's high pitch counts stopping him from going deep into games and becoming a worrisome trend, more than a few young pitchers would panic and seek change. Prior is smarter than that. He’s not going to change anything about his approach to the game. He says that he’s going to keep going out there and throwing on the corners, that eventually they are going to start swinging at them. And once Prior is accepted more by the umpires, maybe he will get more of those calls on the corners.

Jason Bere has been considered the bad guy in the fifth spot in the rotation controversy between him and Juan Cruz when Prior was called up. Before the game on June 26th, Bere posted a 2.45 ERA since May 21 -- the day Baylor threatened to remove him from the rotation. He has lasted six or more innings in all five of his starts since. However, over his last five starts, Bere has been victimized by a bad bullpen and almost non-existent run support. But Bere has earned favor with his teammates by resisting the urge to gripe.

It’s bizarre, but it seems like every year recently, the Cubs have one pitcher that is unlucky, that gets no offensive support. Last year, it was Kevin Tapani, who went 0-7 over 13 starts from June 2 to Aug. 22 despite posting a 4.14 ERA. During those 13 starts the Cubs scored only 19 runs while he was on the mound.

The Cubs have scored 10 runs for Bere during his last five starts.

And his luck continues to get worse. In his June 26th start, Bere allowed five hits, one walk and three earned runs – all on solo home runs – in 2.1 innings. That was before taking a line drive off the bat of Sean Casey off of his right knee. Luckily, Bere only has a deep bone bruise on the side of his knee – three inches to the left and he would have had a shattered knee cap. He is expected to go onto the DL.

Oh, and his record dropped to 1-9. Let’s hope his luck changes or he will may not want to leave his house.

Matt Clement has been a hard one to figure out. Over the last two weeks (1-1, 5.68 ERA, 1.32 WHIP), he was bettered by Seattle’s Freddy Garcia, pitched nearly the same game and got run support to defeat the cross-town Sox, then gave up three home runs in five innings against the Reds on June 25th. He is a guy to keep an eye on, looking to see if he finds some consistency.

Will the real Kerry Wood please stand up? It has been a roller-coaster two weeks for Wood (1-1, 7.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). First he allowed nine hits, but just one walk, in a loss at Houston. Then, in his worst outing of the season, maybe of his career, Wood threw 97 pitches in just four innings against the White Sox, having allowed just two hits, but walked six while having given up eight runs.

Wood faced the unenviable position of having to start the game following the death of Cardinal Darryl Kile. Wood responded with a very strong game, having allowed five hits and three walks and allowed two runs in eight innings. The key was that Wood and pitching coach Larry Rothschild worked on Wood’s balance prior to that start.

Wood was jumping or lunging toward the hitter or falling off to the side. Then, when he got into trouble, he started throwing instead of pitching. Rothschild felt that Wood’s stuff is still outstanding and that he will benefit from more time on the mound. He said that with guys with his arms speed that it takes some mound time to get a real feel for his control, citing Sandy Koufax and Nolan Ryan as examples of pure power guys that didn’t have it all under control under the age of 25. It’s just a matter of time.

Bullpen:

As stated before, the Cubs’ bullpen stinks right now -- last in the league with a 4.94 ERA. They had been hanging on with glue and twine and post-its, but it’s not working. Kyle Farnsworth hasn’t solidified the situation as expected, so they desperately need Tom Gordon to get to Chicago (he’s due on or about July 2nd). Of course, they will trade him by the end of July, but, my, won’t the pen look so much better for a while [sarcasm implied].

Antonio Alfonseca has performed admirably, but when you have no save situations, it’s hard to stay sharp (1-0, 1 save, 3.60 ERA, 1.60 WHIP over the last two weeks). Joe Borowski was the lone gleaming light for the bullpen during the recent days (1.27 ERA, 0.99 WHIP). After being overused, Farnsworth’s arrival and several days off have obviously done wonders.

Carlos Zambrano was recalled from Iowa recently, and does not appear to have learned anything (4.50 ERA, 1.75 WHIP). Kyle Farnsworth is still getting his footing (pardon the pun) after returning from a broken foot (6.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP). And I just hope that Juan Cruz has not been ruined by Baylor with his mishandling of the youngster (0-1, 11.73 ERA, 2.09 WHIP), because when Bere goes on the DL, it is expected that Cruz will move back into the rotation.

FINALLY! Baylor appears to have lost faith in lefty Jeff Fassero (1-1, 5.40 ERA, 1.40 WHIP), at least for now. When Texas was in town, with the left-handed hitting Rafael Palmeiro stepping to the plate with the bases loaded in the ninth, Baylor called on right-hander Borowski. Baylor had said before the game that he was reluctant to use Fassero, who gave up three runs the day before in a 7-4 loss and saw his ERA rise to 6.00. Baylor said that Fassero relied more on his cut fastball last year, and that maybe he should think about going back to it.

Or, Don, maybe he just. Doesn’t. Have. It. Anymore.

Infield:

The time has come for Fred McGriff to take the leadership role he has not lived up to since arriving in Chicago. McGriff has had a great month (.333, 3 HR, 8 RBI over the last two weeks) and has remained hot, as he has as many RBI as Sammy Sosa with half as many HR. With Moises Alou starting to come around, the Cubs only need to get Sosa out of his slump and the 3-4-5 attack that Andy MacPhail has created will finally be on track.

The Cubs will have a decision to make regarding Bill Mueller at season’s end. A free agent after this season, Mueller's comeback from fracturing his left kneecap last year explains the kind of player, and person, Mueller is, and why the Cubs should keep him. He has started getting his game back (.302, 4 RBI, 6 RS over the last two weeks) after having no spring training.

The top free-agent name that will be out there will be Philadelphia’s Scott Rolen. Since Rolen turned down a $140 million offer from the Phillies, you can bet the Cubs won’t up the ante.

Rolen is a tremendous talent, no doubt, but there is no comparison in the matters of being committed to hard work, never getting into a war of words or be the clubhouse distraction Rolen has become. Rolen may have better fantasy numbers than Mueller, but he has the intangibles needed to help the Cubs win in the future, and that should translate into a solid second half and 2003 for Mueller.

Alex Gonzalez has bounced back well (.275, 4 HR, 8 RBI, 8 RS) following his slump after coming off the DL. Also expect a good second half from Gonzalez (if Baylor will quit screwing with line-up on a daily basis).

Todd Hundley has forced Baylor's hand with a major offensive surge over the last two weeks (.246, 6 HR, 13 RBI, 12 RS), which raised a lousy average to a still-low .206. It's no secret that Baylor and Hundley have never seen eye-to-eye, and there always seems to be grudges held by each of them as they still approach one another with a bit of caution and uncertainty.

Hundley told Baylor he could catch every day, but quickly added that Baylor was the boss and he was willing to accept whatever. That's a defensive reaction from someone who is expecting to get bad news sooner or later about his status.

Baylor wants to keep Hundley's bat in the lineup, but his primary concern is how he fares in hot, humid weather. Hundley becomes unusually dehydrated in hot conditions. He sweats profusely. He had to take intravenous fluids after some games last season. Bottom line – Hundley will never become an every day player – unless global warmer reverts to global cooling.

Delino Deshields has done an admirable job at 2B (.240, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 6 RS), but after tweaking his hip earlier this week, Chris Stynes has been getting a shot to play and he’s done well (.364, 1 HR, 4 RBI).

Mark Bellhorn might be playing more if he hit exclusively from the right side. But he's reluctant to stop switch-hitting because he's confident he also can thrive from the left side, where he’s hitting just .161. Bellhorn has been a beast right-handed, batting .385 with 13 RBIs. Remarkably, he has 15 strikeouts in 39 at-bats, which means he's hitting .625 (15-for-24) when he makes contact.

Angel Echevarría thought he had made the Cubs coming out of spring training. The IF/OF never would have thought that it would take until last week to show up in the majors after playing until then at Class AAA Iowa (.295, 12 2B, 13 HR, 45 RBI). But that's what happened. Echevarria, who had 278 major-league games before this with Colorado and Milwaukee, was brought up to strengthen the team’s pinch-hitting.

Outfield:

Here is a look at Moises Alou’s various injuries sustained during the 2002 season:

- Sidelined three weeks during spring training while recovering from a strained muscle in his left side; sustained the injury taking batting practice near his off-season home in the Dominican Republic.

- Strained his right calf while standing in the outfield during a March 30 exhibition game; went on 15-day DL.

- Scratched from the lineup April 20 after complaining of lower back pain; sustained the injury while diving for a ball in Montreal.

- Left game May 9 with a strained left hamstring; missed two games.

- Bruised his left shoulder and right hip after crashing into the padding along the left-field line in a May 21 doubleheader; returned to the lineup a day later.

- Jammed his right middle finger June 20th while diving into second base on a pickoff attempt; X-rays were negative; he's day-to-day.

But seriously, Alou has done very well over the last two weeks (.302, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 8 RS), which is crucial for the Cubs to have a chance. But so is getting Sammy Sosa (.286, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 6 RS) and Corey Patterson (.255, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 7 RS) back to playing as they did in April and May.

INJURIES:

Jason Bere -- Bere was nailed on the right knee by a line drive off the bat of Sean Casey during Tuesday's game. Put on the DL.

Tom Gordon -- made his second rehab appearance on June 24, working 1 2/3 innings for Class-A Daytona. Gordon threw 35 pitches, allowing one run on one hit.

LOCAL PERSPECTIVE:

The Cubs were stunned when a published report indicated the Anaheim Angels were pursuing closer Antonio Alfonseca. That would be news to the Cubs, who were not even contacted by the Angels about a potential deal. Plus, they have no intention of trading him.

With almost six weeks left before the July 31 trading deadline, the Cubs are in no hurry to deal. If the team doesn't improve, it will look to trade veterans who can become free agents after the season.

But Alfonseca, who is eligible for arbitration in 2003, doesn’t fit that criteria and the Cubs plan to keep him. They are far more likely to trade reliever Tom Gordon, currently on a rehab assignment at Class-A Daytona, and is slated to return in less than two weeks. Gordon, who is being paid $2.8 million plus incentives, said last week that he expects to become trade bait.

*******************

This idea was a little more interesting before he got hurt, but it was speculated that if the St. Louis Cardinals call the Cubs with interest in acquiring Bere, should president/general manager Andy MacPhail even consider making a deal with his National League Central rival?

It was thought that if Juan Cruz is the club's future, it makes sense that the Cardinals eventually would contact the Cubs about Bere, who will become a free agent after the season and is unlikely to be re-signed.

The Cardinals will sooner or later have to search around baseball for the best way to upgrade their rotation. MacPhail, asked if he would refuse to deal with the division-leading Cardinals on the basic principle that he would be helping the enemy's cause, said that you would make the trade if the guy you got made you better. He added that you'd also have to decide how much better it made your division rival.

Right now, MacPhail isn't in the market to break up his club. He will wave no white flags before the All-Star break. MacPhail pointed to the resurgence of left fielder Moises Alou and shortstop Alex Gonzalez as reasons to believe the usually stellar pitching can be supported by a more consistent offense.

The results of the next few weeks will tell if the Cubs will be active in trading some players in July. But movement may be slow on all fronts with the uncertain negotiations between labor and management. Fewer teams than ever will be willing to take on big-money disappointments that other clubs want to dump.

ON THE FARM:

Class AAA Iowa:

Hee Seop Choi -- The Cubs’ top 1B prospect continues to improve (.293, 14 HR, 50 RBI). But as long as McGriff continues to play well, don’t expect to see him until September.

Julio Zuleta -- Zuleta has been making A LOT of noise of late (.291, 19 HR, 48 RBI) and deserves to be called up – if there were only a spot for the 1B/OF.

Bobby Hill -- When Hill was set down, he started off extremely well, having hit .450 in his first five games. Hill’s settled down a bit (.298 (11/37), 1 HR, 8 RBI, 7 RS), but has made great progress.

Class AA West Tennessee:

David Kelton -- Kelton (.269, 15 2B, 12 HR, 47 RBI) has done very well making the transition from 3B to 1B. But with the logjam ahead of him, you have to wonder about his future with the team.

Matt Bruback -- Bruback has worked his way into a spot on the Double-A All-star team (5-2, 3.09 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). It’s will be actually his second All-Star game appearance this season -- represented the club in the Southern League All-Star Game earlier this year. He leads the team in virtually every pitching category and is 9th among Southern Leaguers in ERA, 2nd in innings pitched (96) and strikeouts (84).

Francis Beltran -- Beltran has appeared in 22 games for the Jaxx, converting 12 of his 16 save chances. He has posted a 1-2 record, a 3.42 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. Beltran has been nearly flawless in his last four games, permitting just one hit and saving all of them.

***LATE NEWS*** Beltran has been called up to Chicago to occupy the roster spot vacated by Bere. As Cruz is expected to take Bere’s spot in the rotation, Beltran will follow Cruz into the bullpen.

Steve Smyth -- Although Baylor is reluctant to use Fassero against tough left-handed hitters, he has few other options. Fassero is their only lefty and the team is reluctant to promote Smyth (2-4, 3.90 ERA, 1.06 WHIP). After having left shoulder surgery last August, the team now wonders if Smyth would be better off staying as a starter in the minors and not having the strain of getting up and down to throw at various times in the bullpen.

QUICK VIEW:

HOT

Jon Lieber, Fred McGriff, Alex Gonzalez, Bill Mueller, Moises Alou

NOT

Jason Bere (DL), Carlos Zambrano, Jeff Fassero, Juan Cruz, Mark Bellhorn