Cubs' Prospect Review and ST Update

Hee Seop Choi is not only the top prospect in the organization, he’s one of the few ready to make the leap from the minors to the majors this spring. But it’s not due to a lack of young talent – it’s due to the fact that Mark Prior, Juan Cruz, Carlos Zambrano and Bobby Hill spent enough time last year in the majors to no longer be considered “rookies”, and Corey Patterson, who has spent the good part of two seasons in Chicago, is almost a veteran.

A large number of the Cubs’ top prospects are still in Class-A and Double-A, so don’t worry – there’s still a lot of talent developing down there; just don’t expect to see a top prospect reach Chicago every month or so like last season.

1. Hee Seop Choi – 1B -- Age 24

Choi is actually a little late in arriving in Chicago – after he led his South Korean squad to the semifinals of the 1998 World Championships, he led the Arizona Fall League in home runs in 2000, but was stagnant in 2001 due to a wrist injury. Choi picked up where he left off with a stellar 2002, when he was considered one of the best hitters in the PCL before reaching Chicago last September, which was followed by another strong AFL performance. When you combine a left-handed slugger who can easily reach the seats in left and left-center field with a hitter with an .400+ OBP, that is one dangerous hitter.

The buzz in the off-season was that due to Choi’s uppercut swing, he would be susceptible inside fastballs. But since a lot of Triple-A pitchers have major-league experience and thrive on picking on weaknesses like that, this weakness has yet to be proven. Choi has seen off-speed pitches and hard fastballs in on the hands at every level and still managed a .919 OPS last season. For his size, he moves well and should be solid defensively (he won’t make anyone forget Mark Grace, but a definite improvement over Fred McGriff).

The acquisition of Eric Karros in the off-season is no threat to Choi’s starting position. He is good insurance in case something happens to Choi, for facing those deadly LHPs and for the usual occasional rookie slumps. But, in the end, the Cubs expect that Choi will be a top Rookie-of-the-Year candidate in 2003 and continue to develop into a top 1B in 2004-2005.

2002 Club -- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
Iowa (AAA) 478 94 137 24 3 26 97

2002 Club -- BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Iowa (AAA) 95 119 3 .287 .406 .513 .919

2. Angel Guzman – RHP – Age 22

Guzman is a youngster that the Cubs had been waiting to take off in Class-A ball, which he did in 2002, handling both levels of A ball and leading the organization’s minor leaguers in ERA (2.19) and wins (11). His fastball tops out at just over 90 MPH, but it has great movement. Guzman has a strong sinker, with an impressive 12-6 curve and what’s called the best change up in the system. He also has an easy, compact delivery that is technically perfect.

With the strong spring he’s having, he’s expected to make the move to Double-A, where he will need to fine-tune his location and continue his improvement pitching inside on hitters (he has a very effective change that comes in on left-handers). While he could surprise with a fast move through Double- and Triple-A this year, expect his debut to come in mid-to-late 2004 or early 2005.

2002 Club -- Lansing (A)
W-L 5-2 * 1.89 ERA * 0 SV * 62 IP * 42 H * 3 HR * 16 BB * 49 SO * 0.935 WHIP * 3.1/1 K/BB

2002 Club -- Daytona (A)
W-L 6-2 * 2.39 ERA * 0 SV * 94 IP * 99 H * 2 HR * 33 BB * 74 SO * 1.404 WHIP * 2.2/1 K/BB

3. Brendan Harris – 3B/2B – Age 22

Harris is one of those guys that does a lot of things very well, but none of them at a superior level. He just performs. Harris had a great season at Daytona, then moved up to Double-A at the end of the season and he ended up being West Tennessee's top hitter during the playoffs. He's not expected to be the typical third baseman, power-wise, nor is it known whether he can play second base well enough as a long term option, especially with Bobby Hill ahead of him. Definitely having an infielder that is capable to have a .900+ OPS, has an excellent eye for the strike zone, and had only 62 strikeouts in 478 AB is quite a prize. Prospects with that sort of hitting ability and patience at the plate move through the organization very quickly.

Harris has become the organization’s best pure hitter. He hits with power into the gaps and has shown that he has the glove to handle 3B, unlike David Kelton, who will be giving 3B another shot at Triple-A. Harris was named the FSL’s best defensive 3B and he has the strongest infield arm in the Cubs’ system. Any faltering by Kelton at Triple-A and Harris will force him back into the outfield. At his current progress, Harris could be in Chicago to start 2004.

2002 Club -- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
Daytona (A) 425 82 140 35 6 13 54

2002 Club -- BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Daytona (A) 43 57 16 .329 .395 .532 .927

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2002 Club ------- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
West Tenn (AA) 53 8 17 4 1 2 11

2002 Club ------- BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
West Tenn (AA) 2 5 1 .321 .345 .547 .892

4. Andy Sisco – LHP – Age 20

Picture Randy Johnson and Brian Urlacher in the same body, and you have Andy Sisco – a 6-foot-9, 260-pound left-hander with a 91-95 MPH fastball and a nasty split-finger pitch, who was also recruited to play defensive end in college. He has No. 1 ability, and if he stays healthy, he could make it to the majors sometime in 2004 – more than likely 2005.

Sisco throws a sinking fastball, as well as a curve, change, and splitter, with the splitter being the best of the three. After relying on his splitter too much, the organization made him stop using it to force him to figure out how to use the fastball to set up hitters for his change and curve. He'll be on a strict pitch count this season in Single-A, working his splitter back into his game, while learning how to use all of his pitches together. From last year at this time until now, Sisco made more progress than anyone in the entire organization. It would be impossible to expect that level of progress this season, but the Cubs are hoping that he just keep improving in the right direction.

2002 Club -- Boise (A)
W-L 7-2 * 2.43 ERA * 0 SV * 78 IP * 51 H * 3 HR * 39 BB * 101 SO * 1.154 WHIP * 2.6/1 K/BB

5. Felix Pie – OF – Age 18

There is no other prospect that carries as much expectation, as much excitement, as high a ceiling as Felix Pie. Pie (pronounced Pee-ay) excelled in the AFL in 2001, and he excited scouts and coaches with his defense and speed. He led the AFL in extra-base hits and was the league’s co-MVP and No. 1 prospect. He played on championship teams in the Arizona Rookie League and Boise. He also led the AZL in triples (13).

It’s impossible to project the career path of an 18-year-old, and equally difficult to list him in the rankings. On sheer athleticism, he could be ranked No. 1; when you factor in the low level of competition he faced in rookie ball and that he has only played a few months of pro ball, he could be ranked No. 10. So I picked a spot in the middle.

The only tool that is not evident yet is hitting for power, though he has shown the ability to hit the ball into the gaps already. Since he only had eight AB at Boise last year, that is where he will start. With success, he may see time at the end of the year at High-A Daytona. But Pie is a good three to four years away from the big leagues, and a lot of guys have shown great promise in rookie ball only to fade away quickly. Pie has shown more natural talent than those other guys. It’s just a matter of putting all together.

2002 Club -- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
AZL Cubs (R) 218 42 70 16 13 4 37

2002 Club -- BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
AZL Cubs (R) 21 47 17 .321 .385 .569 .954

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2002 Club -- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
Boise (A) 8 1 1 1 0 0 1

2002 Club -- BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
Boise (A) 1 1 0 .125 .222 .250 .472

6. Dave Kelton – 3B/1B – Age 23

Kelton is, and always has been, a top prospect as a hitter – one capable of hitting .270+ with 25+ home runs in the majors. In fact, it could be said that Kelton has done nothing but hit since his first pro season six years ago. Literally. He has been a player without a position. He started out as a 3B, but he had trouble both with the glove and with throwing the ball. He has tried LF, then spent most of last season at 1B. With Hee Seop Choi ahead of him, he has had to move back to third this spring – in his first trip to Triple-A.

Third base is Kelton’s clearest path to the majors. If he clicks there very quickly, he could be in the bigs this summer. But if Harris passes him, and Kelton has to move back to LF, where his bat is less valuable, to road to Chicago will become a more difficult one.

2002 Club ------- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
West Tenn (AA) 498 68 130 28 6 20 79

2002 Club ------- BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
West Tenn (AA) 52 129 12 .261 .332 .432 .764

7. Luke Hagerty – RHP – Age 22

The advantage of drafting pitchers out of college is that their experience lends itself to much more polish and command. At 6-7, 230, Hagerty throws 90-94 MPH with late movement, and he’s expected to add velocity. The lefthander has a good slider and change, and his command of all three pitches is also pretty good, so he could move quickly the next couple of years. But with the abundance of great arms in the system, he doesn’t need to be rushed.

With increasing control, Hagerty should move up from low Class A this spring into Double-A by the end of the year, and to Chicago by 2005.

2002 Club -- Boise (A)
W-L 5-3 * 1.13 ERA * 0 SV * 48 IP * 32 H * 2 HR * 15 BB * 50 SO * 0.979 WHIP * 3.3/1 K/BB

8. Todd Wellemeyer – RHP – Age 24

Wellemeyer may be the pitcher closest to being ready for the big leagues. The 6-3, 205-pound right-hander has quality selection of pitches – a four-seam and two-seam fastball that hits about 96 and 92 MPH, respectively, an excellent changeup, an off-speed curve and a sharp slider. He does need to become more consistent with his breaking balls. When his stuff is on, he overmatches hitters with high heat and off-speed stuff away.

He only started eight games in Double-A last year, so his worth against tougher competition wasn’t proven there. However, in the hitter-dominating Arizona Fall League this year, Wellemeyer only allowed 24 hits and had 40 strikeouts in 34 innings pitched to go with a 3.12 ERA. He’ll probably start out the season at Triple-A and make an appearance in the majors any time after the All-Star break.

2002 Club -- Daytona (A)
W-L 2-4 * 3.79 ERA * 0 SV * 74 IP * 63 H * 7 HR * 19 BB * 87 SO * 1.108 WHIP * 4.6/1 K/BB

2002 Club -- West Tenn (AA)
W-L 3-3 * 4.70 ERA * 0 SV * 46 IP * 33 H * 2 HR * 18 BB * 37 SO * 1.109 WHIP * 0.8/1 K/BB

9. Nic Jackson – OF – Age 23

Jackson was considered to be the most exciting player in the Florida Atlantic League in 2001 – his last full season that he has played. He is strong, has a sweet swing, and a gliding stride when he runs. With his combination of power and speed, he could be at least a 20/20 guy with a .300 average.

But Jackson has seen his share of the DL – a finger ligament injury in 2000, a broken shin in 2002 and a tweaked hamstring this winter in the Mexican Pacific League. Hopefully, he has that out of his system. Even though he has missed some crucial time, he did play well before the injuries (he had a .283 BA and a .847 OPS in the Mexican Pacific League).

Jackson will begin 2003 in Triple-A, and he should reach the majors at some point in 2004.

2002 Club ------- AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
West Tenn (AA) 131 18 38 9 1 3 20

2002 Club ------- BB SO SB AVG OBP SLG OPS
West Tenn (AA) 6 23 8 .290 .329 .443 .774

10. Francis Beltran – RHP – Age 22

Last year in Double-A, Beltran emerged as the club's closing pitcher, nailing down 24 saves for West Tenn. Then he got the call to make the jump from Double-A to the Cubs to help save the sinking ship that was the Cub bullpen. Beltran wasn’t treated in a very friendly fashion by the hitters of the National League.

Nevertheless, the Cubs believe in the 6-5, 220-pound right-hander. He has a true, nasty 95-MPH fastball, a sharp mid-80’s slider, and a splitter to wrap up the package. Under the same situation as last season, Beltran would almost be guaranteed a spot on the Cubs opening day roster. But with the signings of Mark Guthrie, Mike Remlinger and Dave Veres during the off-season, the Cubs have the luxury of sending Beltran to Triple-A to be the club’s closer there, gaining valuable experience and work on his biggest weakness – gaining control of his pitches, having walked 16 hitters in the 12 major-league innings that he worked.

In time, Beltran – the Cubs’ possible closer of the future – will make that jump back up the majors sometime during the 2003 season.

2002 Club -- West Tenn (AA)
W-L 2-2 * 2.59 ERA * 23 SV * 42 IP * 28 H * 2 HR * 19 BB * 43 SO * 1.119 WHIP * 2.3/1 K/BB

2002 Club -- Chicago (NL)
W-L 0-0 * 7.50 ERA * 0 SV * 12 IP * 14 H * 2 HR * 16BB * 11 SO * 2.500 WHIP * 0.7/1 K/BB

Spring Training as of 3-14 (Min. 9 AB)

Batting Average / Hits

T O'Leary -- .476 / 10
A Gonzalez .444 / 4
C Patterson .409 / 9
D Kelton -- .375 / 6
S Sosa -- .357 / 5
L Harris -- .353 / 6
P Bako -- .313 / 5
H Choi -- .296 / 8
J Melian -- .294 / 5
D Miller -- .294 / 5
M Cummings .280 / 7
A Ojeda -- .250 / 5
C Gipson -- .250 / 3
M Alou -- .240 / 6
N Frese -- .235 / 4
P Hiatt -- .227 / 5
M Bellhorn -- .208 / 5
T Goodwin -- .208 / 5
N Jackson -- .188 / 3
R Martinez -- .167 / 3
B Hill ---- .156 / 5
M Mahoney -- .125 / 1

Total Bases / Home Runs / RBI

C Patterson 17 / 1 / 5
M Cummings 17 / 2 / 4
T O'Leary -- 12 / 0 / 5
D Kelton -- 11 / 1 / 3
L Harris -- 10 / 1 / 3
H Choi -- 10 / 0 / 4
A Gonzalez 8 / 1 / 5
M Alou -- 8 / 0 / 2
M Bellhorn -- 8 / 0 / 3
J Melian -- 7 / 0 / 1
N Frese -- 7 / 1 / 1
R Martinez -- 7 / 1 / 1
S Sosa -- 6 / 0 / 0
P Bako -- 6 / 0 / 1
D Miller -- 6 / 0 / 3
P Hiatt -- 6 / 0 / 0
B Hill ---- 6 / 0 / 3
A Ojeda -- 5 / 0 / 2
T Goodwin -- 5 / 0 / 0
C Gipson -- 3 / 0 / 2
N Jackson -- 3 / 0 / 0
M Mahoney -- 1 / 0 / 2

Batting Average / Hits (Less than 9 AB)

T Hubbard -- 1.000 / 3
D Bacon -- .500 / 1
R Chirinos -- .500 / 1
S Sonnier -- .500 / 1
K Mcdonald -- .429 / 3
L Montanez -- .429 / 3
R Cedeno -- .400 / 2
C Kopitzke -- .333 / 1
E Alfonzo -- .250 / 1
B Harris -- .250 / 1
M Grudzielanek .200 / 1
E Karros -- 0.000 / 0
R Sadler -- 0.000 / 0
A Greenberg 0.000 / 0
J Hamilton -- 0.000 / 0
E Alfonso -- 0.000 / 0
M Craig -- 0.000 / 0
M Mallory -- 0.000 / 0
F Martinez -- 0.000 / 0
K Bartee -- 0.000 / 0