2003 Season Preview

Offseason Review
The Dodgers were in first place at the All-Star break but they stumbled to the finish and finished 92-70, three and a half games behind the wild card-winning Giants. This offseason GM Dan Evans made a few moves to improve the team, but no major overhauls like the Giants. The biggest deal (full story) came with the Cubs as the Dodgers shipped two of the least productive major league starters, Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek, for the Cubs’s headaches, Todd Hundley and Chad Hermansen. The Dodgers lone free agent signing this offseason was first baseman Fred McGriff. The last move was trading for OF Daryle Ward of the Astros.

New faces: 1B Fred McGriff, C Todd Hundley, OF Chad Hermansen, OF Daryle Ward

Minor league deals: LHP Wilson Alvarez, RHP Calvin Maduro, RHP Rodney Myers, LHP Troy Brohawn, LHP Yorkis Perez, LHP Pedro Borbon, INF Terry Shumpert, 3B Ron Coomer, 2B Quilvo Vera, OF Calvin Murray

Left town: 1B Eric Karros, 2B Mark Grudzielanek, LHP Omar Daal, OF Marquis Grissom, 3B Tyler Houston, 2B Jeff Reboulet, PH Dave Hansen, C Chad Kreuter, LHP Jesse Orosco, RHP Kevin Beirne, LHP Jeff Williams, RHP Ruddy Lugo

Key Questions for 2003

1. After Nomo and Perez, what can manager Jim Tracy expect from the rest of the rotation? Kaz Ishii's season ended with a fractured skull, not to mention 106 walks in 154 innings. Andy Ashby was pounded in the 2nd half to a 2-7 record with a 4.75 ERA (.305 BAA). Kevin Brown has made 6 DL appearances in the last 3 years. Darren Dreifort didn't throw a pitch all last season. The minor league system has no starters on the horizon.

2. Which Adrian Beltre will show up in 2003? In the first half, he hit just .238/.289/.356; though he did heat up in the second half (.281/.319/.509). What happened to the plate discipline that he had in 99-00. His walk rate has been cut in half and his OBP has dropped from .360 in 2000 to .303 in 2002. I wouldn't count on a breakout season from Beltre given that he often looked totally lost at the plate last year. He will only be 24 on opening day so there is hope for the future.

3. Will Fred McGriff and Joe Thurston contribute more offense than Eric Karros and Mark Grudzielanek? Karros was the majors 3rd worst 1B in terms of OPS (.722) and Grudzielanek was the worst 2B (.665 OPS); so it shouldn't be much of a challenge. McGriff (.858 OPS) will likely see a slight dropoff moving to Dodger Stadium but not that drastic. Thurston will need to improve his plate discipline to become a top of the order threat, as he walked just 25 times in 587 at-bats at Triple-A Las Vegas.

Projected Lineup
CF: Dave Roberts
C: Paul Lo Duca
RF: Shawn Green
LF: Brian Jordan
1B: Fred McGriff
3B: Adrian Beltre
2B: Joe Thurston
SS: Cesar Izturis/Alex Cora

Projected Rotation
Hideo Nomo
Odalis Perez
Andy Ashby
Kazuhisa Ishii
Kevin Brown/Darren Dreifort

Projected Bullpen
Eric Gagne - closer
Paul Shuey
Paul Quantrill
Giovanni Carrara
Guillermo Mota

Starting Lineup Analysis

Catcher Paul Lo Duca is a blue-collar, hard-nosed player, who is a fan favorite in LA. He has good strike zone judgement and is a line drive/gap hitter. While it’s pretty clear that he won’t replicate his 25-homer season of 2001, Lo Duca puts up solid numbers at the very thin catchers position. Expect slightly better numbers from him this season, as the order should be stronger this season. He’ll likely be the 4th or 5th catcher taken in the draft. He also qualifies as a fantasy first baseman.

People didn’t expect 1B Fred McGriff, 39, to continue to produce at this age, but he still maintains his consistency as he’s hit 30 homers and driven in 100 runs for the last two seasons. He’s a huge improvement over fan favorite Eric Karros (.722 OPS) and should help the Dodger offense push a few more runs across this season. McGriff’s numbers are likely to drop-off slightly due to his age and his move to Dodger Stadium. He’s only 22 homers from 500 and he should make that number as long as he stays healthy. The knock on McGriff is his low runs total, which hurts him in the fantasy world. He’s a decent backup for your fantasy squad at a deep position.

Rookie 2B Joe Thurston has earned a reputation for his work ethic and love for the game, thus earning the nickname “Joey Ballgame.” While he seems to have average skills all around (throwing arm, speed, bat), he has excelled at every level of the minor leagues. He’s been compared to Mark Grudzielanek, who he is replacing; but I’m expecting better than that. Thurston was named Triple-A Player of the Year by Baseball America last season where he hit .334 with 106 runs, 12 homers, 55 RBI and 22 stolen bases. Don’t expect too much from the rookie but he doesn’t have big shoes to fill, as Grudzielanek (.665 OPS) was the least productive 2B in the NL last year. Thurston will likely bat 7th to start the season, which may hurt his run total but should give him some decent RBI opportunities. If Thurston hits .270 with 5 homers, 50 RBI and 15 steals, it will be a successful rookie campaign.

Last offseason, virtually every fantasy magazine had 3B Adrian Beltre as a potential breakout star; however, he looked lost for much of the first half hitting only .238 with 7 homers and 29 RBI – not nearly enough production from a guy that many experts predict will reach 30-30 one day. He turned it on for the second half and helped Shawn Green keep the offense afloat as he hit .281 with 14 homers and 46 RBI; however he wilted in September hitting only .214. Beltre will be 24-years-old this April and this will be his 5th year as starting third baseman for the Dodgers. While his potential is certainly there, his plate discipline has declined from two seasons ago. If he can be more selective with his pitches, Beltre will have the breakout season predicted from last year; but looking at his peripheral numbers, don’t count on it. Beltre ranked #13 on the FIC third base ranking in 2002, so he should be a solid mid-teens pick with a high upside.

The Dodger shortstop situation merits very little fantasy value, if any. Cesar Izturis got most of the at-bats at shortstop last season and was about as sure an out as any in the majors. He hit a measly .232 with a disgusting .556 OPS. A look into the numbers and it actually gets worse, yes worse! In 292 at-bats against righties, Izturis hit .195 with a .467 OPS! There was talk in midseason of Izturis batting right-handed permanently as his hitting from the left-side was a disaster. That led to SS Alex Cora, who had a career high batting average of .238 heading into 2002. After shortening his stroke in the offseason, he hit a solid .291 with 5 homers, 28 RBI and 7 steals in 258 at-bats. Cora and Izturis should platoon this season; and Cora will also serve as insurance in case Joe Thurston struggles at second. Avoid Izturis like the plague. Cora will have some value in NL only leagues.

The Dodgers field one of the best outfields in the NL. RF Shawn Green has established himself as one of the elite sluggers in the game and does so with a quiet and humble approach. He carried the Dodger offense for much of 2002 and was probably the NL MVP in the first half hitting .280 with 26 homers and 68 RBI, including a 4 homer, 19 total base game. Green has one of the sweetest strokes in the game and the ball just jumps off his bat. He has a chance to better his numbers this year and you should expect his stolen base to climb back up to the double digits in 2003. He’s a first or second round pick.

LF Brian Jordan had a typical season for himself as he battled an injured back and an injured left knee. But Jordan, a former All-Pro cornerback, plays baseball with a football mentality and plays injured if it’s up to him. His injuries sapped his power for a good two months, but he led all-NL hitters with 30 RBI in September. If Jordan is healthy he can produce .280-25-100. He’ll bat cleanup behind Green and should have a better year in 2003.

Many baseball analysts, including myself, questioned manager Jim Tracy’s decision to start the year with 29-year-old CF Dave Roberts, who had a career average of .242 in 75 games, batting leadoff. After a slow start, Roberts proved his critics wrong and gave the Dodgers a solid top of the order threat – finishing with a .353 OBP and 3rd in the NL with 45 steals. Last year, he primarily platooned with Marquis Grissom; however with Grissom now with the Giants, Roberts should get the opportunity to play everyday (last year he went 10-25 against lefties with 7 walks). Roberts is a great source of steals and should improve upon his overall numbers this season.

Bench - No fantasy value

C Todd Hundley returns to LA via trade after two horrible seasons with the Cubs. While he still has homer run power (28 homers over last 2 seasons), he has hit over .211 just once in the last 5 years. He will serve as Lo Duca’s backup and will serve as a left-handed bat with power off the bench.

Daryle Ward, 27, has been a huge disappointement after hitting 20 homers in 264 at-bats in 2000. Ward's plate discipline is suspect as he only had a .324 OBP last season, which was his best so far in his major league career. He has also benefited from playing at Enron/Astros Field. Last season he hit .279 with only 3 homers (.394 SLG) and 28 RBI in 226 at-bats on the road. In 2001, Ward hit .228 with 4 homers (.395 SLG) and 17 RBI in 114 at-bats on the road. In 2000, Ward hit .245 with 7 homers (.421 SLG) and 22 RBI on the road. Combine this performance with a move to Dodger Stadium (a pitcher's park as we all know) and it doesn't paint a very promising scenario for Ward. He may only be 27-years-old, but he's showing no signs of progressing as a major league hitter. He will be the Dodgers fourth outfielder.

Mike Kinkade will serve as the best right-handed bat off the bench. In 37 games last seasons, he hit .380 with 2 homers and 11 RBI. At Triple-A Las Vegas, he hit .341 with 11 homers and 50 RBI (1.005 OPS). He will get some playing time in the outfield as well as at first base.

Starting Rotation

Hideo Nomo is coming off his best year since '96. He went 16-6 with a 3.39 ERA and had 193 strikeouts. Nomo is a solid fantasy pitcher as he puts up double-digit wins and almost a strikeout per inning. His downside is his career WHIP is 1.32, which was also his WHIP last year - this is due to his high walk total, which is nearly 1 every 2 innings. Nomo could put up better numbers this season as the Dodger lineup should be stronger and he actually pitched better on the road last year, which is very surprising since Dodger Stadium is such a pitchers park. Nomo will likely be picked around the 10th round.

Odalis Perez had his breakout year last season after coming over in the Gary Sheffield trade. Perez pitched brilliantly all year and is a name that is still relatively unknown, despite being an All-Star. He has a low 90s fastball and a sweeping curveball. His control is his strength as he walked only 38 in 222.1 IP. Perez is only 2 years removed from Tommy John surgery so there is some injury risk; however he’s not a power pitcher and the Dodgers kept his pitch counts low as he threw 100+ pitches in only 9 of 32 starts. Expect a similar year from Perez in 2003; though don't be surprised to see his 0.99 WHIP from last season rise a bit over 1.00. He’ll probably go around the 6th round.

Andy Ashby, 35, had a decent year in 2002 after missing virtually all of 2001 with a torn flexor muscle. Ashby doesn't have great value as he will give you only about 1 strikeout per 2 innings and his career WHIP is 1.32. Personally I'm concerned with Ashby as he had a brutal second half last season where he went 2-7 with a 4.75 ERA - he walked 31 and struck out 37 in 72 innings; batters hit .305 against him. At this point in his career, Ashby will struggle to post double-digit wins, his ERA will be around 4.00 and his WHIP will be about 1.35.

Kaz Ishii had a brilliant beginning to his major league career by starting off 10-1. However, I was concerned with his control during that period and it eventually caught up to him. He walked a horrendous 106 in 154 innings, though he did strikeout 143. Ishii must get his walks down to be successful in the majors. His season was cut short when he took a Brian Hunter line drive off his head, fracturing his skull. Ishii is healthy and ready to go this spring - I consider him a sleeper pick because if he can get his walk totals down, he can be a very good fantasy pitcher because his curveball is filthy. Keep an eye on him this spring.

What can I say about Kevin Brown? He's rushed back from elbow injuries several times over the last two years and he immediately re-injured himself each time. To complicate matters last year he injured his back while "wrestling" with his son. At 38, predicting Brown to re-emerge as the ace that he once was would be foolish. However, if he can stay healthy and have an ERA in the 3s, he'll be a valuable fantasy pitcher. Don’t forget that Brown was considered a top 10 pitcher just two years ago and a mid-teens pick is worth the risk for that type of pitcher, even if he’s an injury risk. I'd watch his performances in spring training carefully – he’s thrown five times in the bullpen so far this spring without pain in his back. (Check the message boards and team reports for updates during the spring.)

Darren Dreifort is another constant DL case and one of the worst $55 million signings in the history of the game. Dreifort is recovering from his second Tommy John surgery and was set back last year by a knee injury as well. He's been cleared to join Dodger pitchers for their first workout February 13th. Even when he was healthy, Dreifort had a 4+ ERA and a 1.35 WHIP, though his strikeout per inning rate was roughly 1. It is highly unlikely that Dreifort opens the season in the Dodger rotation, but he pitched in his first game since surgery last week, which has to be encouraging. He’s not worth a roster spot at this point.

Closer

Eric Gagne’s transition to closer was an incredible success. He dominated from day 1 and put up absolutely filthy numbers. He finished the year with 52 saves, a 1.97 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP. Opposing batters hit just .189 off him and he walked just 16 while striking out 114 in 82.1 IP. Gagne throws a 97 mph fastball and compliments it with an 87 mph changeup that acts like a splitter. He also mixes in an overhand curve to keep hitters off balance. Gagne will likely be the 1st closer selected in the draft this season and rightly so. His numbers were so great last season that they are likely to fall off a bit this season.

Bullpen - Holds

Paul Shuey was acquired at the trade deadline from the Indians (2.41 ERA, 1.10 WHIP). He struggled with the Dodgers as he went 5-2 with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. His problem was with walking batters as he walked 21 in 30 innings with the Dodgers. He finished strong and should be the late inning bridge to get to Gagne. Shuey throws a mid-90s fastball with a splitter and a curve. He’ll give you about a strikeout per inning pitched.

Paul Quantrill led the Dodger relievers in 2002 with 33 holds. After a rough start, Quantrill settled in and finished with a 2.70 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. He had a sparkling 1.57 ERA after June 3rd. His best pitch is his sinker, as he limited batters to just one homer in 76 innings last season. He should improve upon his WHIP in 2003 though his holds may drop a bit with Shuey in town.

Guillermo Mota had a great first half going 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA and a 0.97 ERA. However, when Jim Tracy gave him a shot at the primary set-up role after the break, he got torched for 10 runs on 11 hits (3 homers) and 4 walks in just 5.2 innings. That prompted GM Evans to trade for Paul Shuey at the trade deadline. Mota won’t have much fantasy value unless he gets traded.

Giovanni Carrara was the Dodgers long reliever and even a spot starter late in the season. He pitched 90.2 innings in 63 games. He put up a solid 3.28 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. No fantasy value here.

If you have any questions, comments or suggestions about this column, please use the comments section below or feel free to e-mail me at dodgers@fantasyinfocentral.com.