Dodgers Midseason Breakdown

3rd place in the NL West
49-44, 7.5 games behind the Giants

Dodgers Acquire Burnitz, Sign Henderson
GM Dan Evans made his first moves to improve the NLs worst offense by acquiring outfielder Jeromy Burnitz from the Mets and signing all-time stolen base leader Rickey Henderson. The Dodgers acquired Burnitz and cash for 3 minor leaguers. The Dodgers will have to pay $2 million of Burnitz's contract and they are now at the luxury tax threshold.

Burnitz gives the Dodgers lineup much needed power as they are last in the majors in home runs. Burnitz was hitting a dreadful .220 with 4 homers and 12 RBI in 118 at-bats at Shea; hopefully he can do better at Dodger Stadium even though it is a pitchers park. Unfortunately, Burnitz has hit just .185 at Dodger Stadium with 2 homers in 92 at-bats. He'll play left and centerfield on a everyday basis.

The real issue is: can Burnitz handle the pressure of a pennant race? His best years came with the Brewers and this season the Mets have been out of the race from the start. He has a lot of pressure to help kick start this struggling offense and Dodger fans hope that he gets off to a quick start.

Rickey Henderson has been playing in the Independent League for the Newark Bears. He was the league's All-Star MVP and he's been pounding the league all year. He's hitting .339 with 8 homers, 33 RBI, 9 steals and a .493 OBP. The Independent League features talent on the level of Double-A competition. Henderson will play some left field and will provide help off the bench until Dave Roberts comes back from the DL. Henderson is certainly an improvement on rookie Wilkin Ruan.

The 44-year-old can certainly help the NL's worst OBP. Henderson has a career .402 OBP and hasn't had an OBP of lower than .368 since his rookie year. He's not much more than a singles hitter at this point in his career but the Dodgers just need base runners ahead of Lo Duca and Green.

GM Evans has made a couple of solid moves during the break to help the offense but it won't be enough to win them a championship. Evans is likely done acquiring outfield help but he could make a move for an infielder (Aramis Ramirez, Joe Randa, Luis Castillo). The Dodger infield has serious holes that desperately need to be filled. In a perfect world, Beltre and Green start to pound the ball and Burnitz makes a smooth transition to the team.

First Half in Review
If you don't know the Dodgers story by now, you must not be a baseball fan. The Dodgers hitting has been a bloody mess while their pitching has been dominant. For the first two and a half months, the pitching was able to keep the team in the hunt for the NL West title. Unfortunately after tying the Giants for first on June 18th, the Dodgers went into a tailspin that left them in third. The Dodgers lost 15 of their last 20 games and have no momentum going into the second half.

The Dodger offense has been a complete disaster. The team have only been better than the Tigers and just barely at that. The Dodgers rank dead last in the NL in virtually ever offensive category: average (.244), OBP (.359), SLG (.304), runs (328), homers (59) and walks (228). The teams 59 homers is 19 fewer than the 2nd lowest team total accumulated by the Devil Rays.

Lucky for the Dodgers, the pitching staff has been dominant. Their team ERA of 3.07 is almost a half run better than the Phillies. The starters went 40-31 with a 3.48 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 506 strikeouts in 579 innings. The bullpen was even better: 9-13, 34 saves, 2.14 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 252 strikeouts in 257 innings.

Positional Analysis (AVG-R-HR-RBI-SB)

Paul Lo Duca (C) - .307-38-6-34-0
FIC Rank - C: 12
Lo Duca has been the Dodgers' offensive MVP of the first half. He had a 25 game hitting streak, which was the 2nd longest streak in Dodger history. He was so successful with runners in scoring position that Jim Tracy was basically forced to move Paul into the cleanup spot where he hit .295 with a .901 OPS in 44 at-bats. Lo Duca hit .387 with 27 RBI in 62 at-bats with runners in scoring position.
2nd Half: Lo Duca should continue to be a top fantasy catcher. With the addition of Burnitz, it isn't clear where Lo Duca will hit in the second half - read the next Dodger report to get updated because it will have an impact on his RBI totals.

Fred McGriff (1B) - .249-23-10-35-0
FIC Rank - 1B: 34
The Crime Dog had his typical slow start (.245-3-11 in April) but he picked it up in May hitting .290 with 6 homers and 19 RBI. Unfortunately he pulled his groin and he rushed back from the DL only to return to the DL five days later. He's been diagnosed with a torn groin and it isn't clear when he will return.
2nd Half: McGriff's groin injury is a lingering concern for the second half. There isn't a timetable for his return. McGriff shouldn't be on your roster.

Alex Cora (2B) - .240-23-1-20-4
FIC Rank - 2B: 34, SS: 38
Cora's successful 2002 is looking like a fluke. His .600 OPS ranks 4th worst among major league starters. He was dreadful in June hitting just .190 with 5 RBI.
2nd Half: Cora should be nowhere near a fantasy lineup except in deep NL-only leagues. He has no power and a little bit of speed.

Adrian Beltre (3B) - .225-24-6-33-1
FIC Rank - 3B: 34
Beltre is the second biggest disappointment in the Dodger offense. His numbers have regressed once again and he looks lost at the plate. His .642 OPS ranks 2nd worst among third baseman; and players such as Alex Sanchez and Marlon Anderson have been more productive. GM Dan Evans would love to turn back the clock and trade Beltre for Rolen, but the Delorian was stolen by Biff again.
2nd Half: It's hard to imagine Beltre playing worse in the second half but he's showing no sign of breaking out. He hasn't posted an OPS of above .692 in any month this season. Dodger fans pray that he can find lightning in a bottle like he did in the second half last season.

Cesar Izturis (SS) - .255-29-0-21-5
FIC Rank - SS: 32
Izturis' .592 OPS ranks 3rd worst among major league starter. Recogonize a trend here? Is it painfully obvious why this offense is so pathetic. Izturis has actually improved on his performance from last year. He's becoming a servicable (utility) hitter from the left-side (.244/.287/.273). Don't get me wrong, he still has no business on any fantasy roster.
2nd Half: Izturis has no power and hasn't learned the art of basestealing yet. In fantasyland that translates to no value.

Brian Jordan (LF) - .299-28-6-28-1
FIC Rank - OF: 85
Jordan was one of the more productive Dodgers when he was in the lineup. He hit 3 homers in the first week but then didn't hit another until June 1st. Unfortunately it was a typical Jordan year as he was slowed by several injuries (hand, wrist, knee) before going down with season ending knee surgery.
2nd Half: Jordan is out for the year.

Dave Roberts (CF) - .250-32-1-10-24
FIC Rank - OF: 74
Roberts has given fantasy owners pretty much what was expected... speed. He stole 24 bases despite being slowed by a nagging hamstring injury. He had a great April hitting .315 with 9 steals before pulling his hammy in May. He returned from the DL too quickly and hit just .205 in June.
2nd Half: The Dodgers won't rush Roberts back this time which probably means he will be out until at least the end of July. When he comes back he should provide lots of steals.

Shawn Green (RF) - .255-46-10-45-3
FIC Rank - OF: 67
Green has been a fantasy bust in 2003. After last year's performance, many owners were expecting a similar slow start but this season Green hasn't been able to turn it around. He hit a measly .181 with 2 homers and 13 RBI in June. His strikeouts are up and his walks are down. He's on pace to hit just 17 homers which would be his worst season since '97 when he was a platoon player in Toronto.
2nd Half: Green has looked off balance all year - swinging through pitches at an increasing rate. I can't imagine him having a worse second half and hopefully he can build off his .278/.339/.481 in 54 July at-bats. I think he's worth acquiring for the second half.

Jolbert Cabrera (IF), Mike Kinkade (OF), Daryle Ward (OF), Ron Coomer (3B), Dave Ross (C)
Cabrera and Ross are decent options in NL-only leagues. Ross, who is having a solid rookie season, will lose playing time with the acquistions of Burnitz and Henderson.

Pitching Analysis

Starting Rotation

Kevin Brown - 10-4 2.30ERA 1.45WHIP 103K 117.1IP
FIC Rank - 6
After a slow start by mortal standards (2-1, 3.22ERA in April), Brown re-established himself as one of the premier pitchers in baseball. After giving up 5 runs to the Giants on April 18th, Brown threw 11 consecutive quality starts with a 9-0 record, 1.38 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Brown threw quality starts in 14 of 18 starts.
2nd Half: Brown couldn't avoid the DL and is currenlty sidelined with a strained abdominal muscle. The good news is that his arm is fine and he should return shortly after the break. Expect more dominating performances in the second half. Even if the Dodger offense struggles, Brown will pick up wins.

Hideo Nomo - 9-8 2.97ERA 1.12WHIP 124K 142.1IP
FIC Rank - 3
Nomo pitched much better than his 9-8 record. He was a victim of poor run support which will obviously be a reoccuring theme as we look at the Dodger pitchers. Nomo has thrown quality starts in 14 of his 20 starts. Nomo also continues his strange trend of pitching better on the road than at home. Nomo is 6-2 with a 2.09 ERA on the road; you'd expect him to pitcher better at Dodger Stadium.
2nd Half: Nomo's fate will depend largely on the Dodger offense. More offense will obviously mean more wins. Expect a slight dropoff from him in the second half as his 1.12 WHIP is likely to trend toward his career 1.30 WHIP. He's also on pace to throw 247.2 innings while his career high is 228 in '96.

Odalis Perez - 6-7 4.25ERA 1.27WHIP 84K 114.1IP
FIC Rank - 58
Perez has had trouble controling his emotions with the Dodgers offense obviously frustrating him. He was ejected twice in June and was vocal about the Dodgers need to acquire additional offensive help. June was tough month for Perez; in 6 starts, he threw 5 quality starts but finished with an 0-4 record. Perez hasn't been as sharp as last season but he deserves better than a 6-7 record. In 18 starts, he's thrown 13 quality ones.
2nd Half: While Perez's name has come up in trade talks, don't expect him to be traded. If you are close to the innings limit in a roto league, bench Perez on the road where he is 3-5 with a 5.35 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. He should improve on his first half numbers.

Kazuhisa Ishii - 8-3 2.94ERA 1.45WHIP 71K 104IP
FIC Rank - 34
Ishii must be close friends with David Copperfield because he's a magician at stranding runners on base. Ishii continues to issue way to many walks as he leads the majors again this season. Incredibly, he has just a 2.94 ERA despite his high 1.45 WHIP. In 18 starts, he has thrown 13 quality starts.
2nd Half: Ishii's ERA won't stay this low if he continues to issue the free passes - this isn't a guess, it is a fact. Ishii will likely end up with an ERA closer to 4. Trade Ishii for a pitcher with a lower WHIP.

Darren Dreifort - 4-4 4.05ERA 1.38WHIP 67K 60.1IP
FIC Rank - 101
Dreifort was pitching great baseball before his arthritic knee cut his season short. Of his 8 starts, 7 were quality starts. Dreifort's numbers were in line with his career averages in terms of WHIP and ERA but he looked more poised on the mound. Hopefully he'll be ready for spring 2004.
2nd Half: Out for the season.

Andy Ashby - 2-6 5.57ERA 1.43WHIP 26K 42IP
FIC Rank - 196
Ashby has taken Dreifort's spot in the rotation and he's had mixed results. In his first three starts, he allowed 2 or less runs; however he was hit hard in his next two starts.
2nd Half: Ashby melted down in the second half of 2002, but he's thrown fewer innings in 2003. He should only be an option in deep NL-only leagues.

Bullpen

Eric Gagne - 1-3 31S 1.99ERA 0.75WHIP 76K 45.1IP
FIC Rank - 8
Gagne has been the most dominant closer in baseball in the first half. He converted all 31 save opportunities and hasn't blown a save since August 26, 2002 (unless you count the All-Star game). He's been overpowering and is striking out 15.1 per 9 innings. Hitters are batting just .146 against him.
2nd Half: The Dodgers need to have a lead for Gagne to save games. He'll continue to dominate hitters and he should end up with 50+ saves.

Paul Shuey - 3-2 7H 1.88ERA 1.02WHIP 30K 38.1IP
Paul Quantrill - 1-2 1S 12H 1.40ERA 0.89WHIP 27K 45IP
Guillermo Mota - 2-2 1S 8H 1.57ERA 1.01WHIP 50K 57.1IP
Tom Martin - 0-2 14H 4.13ERA 1.31WHIP 28K 28.1IP
2nd Half: The Dodgers bullpen has been brilliant in the first half. The set-up men don't have much fantasy value unless your league counts holds. Shuey and Mota are the best power arms in the Dodger pen while all four should be good options in the hold category.

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