Charging the Mound: NL MVP - Bonds vs Rolen
July 26, 2004
by Chris Wang and Jim Meyerriecks
"Charging the Mound" is back with a vengeance to debate who was the first half National League MVP. ESPN's Baseball Tonight crew threw their hat in the ring with Scott Rolen despite the fact that Barry Bonds is still the most feared hitter in the game today. So are they right? Let's hear what FIC's Wang and Meyerriecks have to say about it...
Don't You Mean the Barry Bonds Award?
Barry Bonds is the most feared hitter in baseball today and perhaps ever. He transforms his teammates around him and pitchers are so deathly afraid of him that he was walked intentionally 71 times in the first half, breaking the full season record for intentional walks set by Bonds himself last year. He's won an unprecedented 6 MVP awards (no other player with more than 3) and he should have won 7 but the sportswriters somehow believed that his teammate Jeff Kent deserved it more in 2000 because he had more RBIs than Bonds despite having inferior numbers in virtually every other category (cough... Scott Rolen). But the past is the past so why is Bonds the ONLY choice for MVP in the first half?
We could argue the definition of the MVP for days so let me define what I consider an MVP. Number one: Superior Individual Performance. Number two: Player's performance within the context of his team.
Bonds is the best player in baseball
Fact number one: Bonds reached base 200 times in the first half! That's 32 more times that the league's second best in Todd Helton who got on base 168 times; and that's 59 more times than Scott Rolen who played more games than Barry. If you take out the home runs, Bonds gave his teammates 177 chances to drive him in - that's 2.4 times per game!!!
Fact number two: Bonds had more home runs (23) than strikeouts (19), a feat that has never been accomplished in the history of the game over a full season - will he be the first?
Fact number three: Ted Williams was the last player to hit .400, but in today's world we know that on-base percentage (OBP) is even more important than batting average. Since 1900, just four men have reached the vaulted level of .500 in OBP. The players: Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle and Bonds. Bonds set the single season mark at .582 in 2002 bettering the 1941 record of .553 held by Williams in his .400 season. This season Bonds looks to set a new bar on reaching base as he's reaching base at a 62.8% pace - amazing.
More facts:
- In the first half, Bonds led the NL in batting average (.365), OBP (.628), SLG (.794), OPS (1.421) and walks (131); he was second in runs scored (71) and third in homers (23). To put those numbers into context, his OBP was 26% better than the 2nd best in Todd Helton (.464) and his SLG was 18% better than the 2nd best in Jim Thome (.653). For the sabermetrically inclined, OBP and SLG are two of the best measures of individual performance because they're the statistics that the individual player has control over - RBIs and runs are a function of what your teammates' contribution.
- People may argue that Bonds' OBP is inflated by the intentional walks, but if you completely remove them from his stats, he still has a .524 OBP.
- Bonds' 48 RBI ranked 29th in the league, but why did he drive in so few runs? With runners in scoring position, Barry hit .371/.775/.800 with 5 homers and 24 RBI. The difference between Rolen and Barry with RISP is that Rolen has more at-bats. Barry's had just 35 official at-bats with RISP because pitchers won't give him much of anything to hit. If Barry had the same amount of at-bats, he'd likely carry a similar RBI total.
Some people will knock Bonds for the games that he sits out, but people need to keep in mind that he's going to turn 40 this week. This isn't a player in his prime missing games, which would be different in my mind. Despite the games that he's missed, he's still on pace to play in 140 games, which is more than Hank Aaron was playing when he was the same age. Furthermore, MVP awards have been awarded to younger players that have missed more games - Juan Gonzalez won the AL MVP in 1996 playing in just 133 games when he was 28; Barry Larkin won the NL MVP in 1995 playing in just 131 games when he was 31. If I was a manager I'd rather have Barry for 140 games, than any other player for 162.
Barry is the sun and the Giants offense revolves around him
The Giants actually finished the first half second in runs scored, but without Barry in the lineup, the Giants lineup doesn't have one bat that strikes fear in opposing pitchers.
Here's the Giants record with and without Barry in the starting lineup in the first half:
Giants with Bonds: 44-29 (.603)
Giants without Bonds: 5-11 (.313)
Granted that is an extremely small sample size but last year the numbers were very similar: .669 winning percentage with Bonds and .419 without Bonds. If you look at the winning percentages, the Giants are a first place team with Bonds and a last place team without him - I'd say that's valuable.
What else does Bonds do for his teammates? I've already mentioned that he's reached base 177 times for the hitter batting behind him - if he had an All-Star caliber player hitting behind him, they'd be leading the league in RBI.
Unfortunately I can't quantify the Bonds' intimidation factor, but he gets the hitters in front of him more pitches to hit because pitchers don't want to walk them and have to face Bonds with runners on base; and he puts more pressure on pitchers because he's on base so much. But what can we quantify? Let's simply strip out Bonds' numbers from the Giants team totals and see what happens - this is overly simplistic but let's take a look.
The Giants lead the league with a .356 OBP. Stripping out Bonds' .628 OBP and the Giants drop to .329 as a team. How profound is that? It would drop the Giants to the 5th worst OBP in the NL.
The Giants are 6th in the league with a .425 SLG. Stripping out Bonds' .794 SLG and the Giants drops to .400. How profound is that? It would drop the Giants to the 4th worst SLG in the NL.
Is Rolen even the best player on his own team?
I think it's arguable that Albert Pujols is the best offensive player on the Cards. In the first half, Pujols reached base three more times than Rolen and had more doubles and homers than Rolen. If Tony LaRussa had switched these guys in the batting order, we'd be debating whether Pujols should be MVP because he'd have the bigger RBI total and not Rolen. Besides RBIs, Rolen didn't even rank in the NL's top 5 in runs, home runs, OBP or SLG. That's not better than Barry...
Rolen has undoubtedly emerged as one of the best all around players in the game but is that reason to give him the MVP? No. There's no doubt that he plays Gold Glove defense at one of the toughest positions in the game but how much of an impact does that have on his team? Negligible. He's had just over 3 chances per game (278 total chances) and has made 5 errors. The worst third baseman has made 15 errors. I doubt Rolen's defense even affects the standings in the win column by more than 1-2 games, if that.
The Cardinals have certainly shocked many of us with their first half but is it a credit to Rolen's great season? Yes he's a factor but he's not the difference between this year and last year's Cards. In fact, the Cards have scored almost a half run less than they did last year in the first half. The biggest impact has been the pitching staff, which has allowed .82 fewer runs per game.
The Bottom Line: It's Barry's Award
Should we credit Scott Rolen with his great first half? Certainly. But is he the NL's MVP of the first half? Not by a long shot. Maybe after Bonds retires, then Rolen will be win the Barry Bonds Award. However this year, Bonds is still the best hitter in the game and he's the most valuable player in the majors. Enough said.
Rolen out the Award?
Before we go on the attack, I'd like to share a little bit of information regarding my stance on the aforementioned machine that Chris just spewed out some stats on.
- I am not one of those people that has an extreme distaste for Barry Bonds and everything he stands for. In fact, more often than not, I'm the person coming to his defense when there's a Bonds debate on the table. The man is an absolute hitting machine, and there's no better hitter in baseball. That said, baseball goes beyond just hitting.
- I may or may not be the right person to support Rolen in this debate. I'd actually prepared a bunch of stuff on the man I would support for the NL MVP over both Barry Bonds and Scott Rolen.... you'll get a little taste of the argument I could have made for that other player at the end (maybe we'll have a future article on that subject, so it will be brief). That's part of the reason that my opponent in this debate had to wait an extra day or two for my rebuttal.
- It's my belief that, when debating against Bonds, you simply can't try and quantify numbers into the examples that you use. Attacking on the RBI front is easy, but it's a lost cause. Barry is equally as proficient at driving in runs as any slugger in the history of the game.... most pitchers are just smart enough not to give him the chance. While numbers will still come into the equation that we use to devise Rolen as the superior player in the first half, nothing's going to drop the jaw and say that he smoked Bonds in the category unless it's on the defensive side of the ball.
That said, it's time to go on the attack!
An MVP Should be the Center Piece
When you're supporting Barry Bonds, the easiest way to back him up is always to say how much better he makes the hitter in front of him and the next two hitters behind him. I know from experience that this is a textbook strategy, and was less than surprised to see Chris jump in with it right off the bat. At some point in our rebuttal, we'll get to the fallacy behind Chris' statement as we look at what the players who have primarily hit in the three-hole and the fifth and sixth spots in the Giants' order have done this season. First, though, let's look at what Rolen has done to the players around him.
Why do we say players rather than hitters? Rolen is the ultimate team player. In fact, if he were to win the award, he would probably give it to the Cardinals' pitching staff and say that they deserved it. Where would the irony be in that? The Cardinals have built a pitching staff around their infield!
Why are Chris Carpenter and Jason Marquis pitching over their heads? Because they're second and third respectively in the National League in Groundball/Flyball ratio. Jeff Suppan, another starter who has always hogged the grounders, is sixteenth in the league. Not surprisingly, all three are having career years to date. Matt Morris and Woody Williams, the only starters on the Cardinals with a longer tenure in St. Louis than Rolen, each rank below twentieth in GB/FB ratio, and haven't fared nearly as well.
Tiptoeing around that offensive attack, we'll continue with the defense for a while before moving onto how Rolen has helped those around him in the lineup.
Gold Glover vs. Subpar Defender
* Fielding percentage = (Total Chances-Errors)/Total Chances
* Range Factor = (Put Outs + Assists)/Innings
* Zone Range = Percentage of balls hit in his defensive zone that he gets to
Before you ask me if I'm insane for calling Barry a subpar defender, let me re-iterate for you that he is an eight-time gold glove winner, though he hasn't won one since 1998. When Bonds was racking up those gold gloves, he deserved each and every one of them, as he was a truly dominant force on both sides of the ball when he was younger. Times have changed, though, and we'll show you that Bonds is no longer even average at his position in 2004.
Unlike many sluggers who end up winning gold glove awards (cough, Rafael Palmeiro in 2001), Rolen is head and shoulders above the competition defensively at third base, and has been for years. At this point in the season, Rolen seems well on his way to a sixth consecutive gold glove award, and places second in the major leagues in Fielding Percentage (.983), first in Range Factor (3.12), and second in Zone Range (.818) at the hot corner. He is the only player in the top four in all three of these statistics, and leads the player behind him by wide margins in all three. Rolen has committed just five errors in 288 total chances.
Bonds, on the other hand, has committed four errors in just 136 total chances at what most people consider the easiest defensive position to play on the diamond. In contrast to Rolen, over the past five years, Barry has declined from a gold glover to a below average left fielder defensively. Among sixteen players who have acquired enough innings to qualify as left fielders, Bonds currently sits eleventh in Fielding Percentage (.971), tenth in Range Factor (1.82), and eleventh in Zone Range (.842). While his ZR is superior to Rolen's .818, the difference between the positions in this statistic is immeasurable. For example, the most lackadaisical defender in the history of the game (Manny Ramirez), would actually place ahead of four regular third basemen with his .705 ZR, and two players in left field are over .900, while the top third baseman (who shall remain nameless until the end of this article) sits at .828.
Unlike the St. Louis starting staff, San Francisco is built largely around flyball pitchers, calling one of the most difficult parks to hit a home run home. Jason Schmidt, Dustin Hermanson, and Brett Tomko all rank in the bottom twenty in Groundball/Flyball Ratio in the National League, thus giving the opposition more opportunities to exploit a player who has become subpar in left field.
All of that said, I have no statistic to quantify exactly how many runs the Cardinals have saved because of Rolen's gold glove defense against Bonds' subpar defense. Generally speaking, baseball is a game that rewards offensive players far more than they do terrific defensive players (again, cough... Rafael Palmeiro).
Creating a statistic to measure the value of an amazing defensive player using the four primary defensive statistics that are used may be something that we do in a future feature article. If we do, perhaps we'll revisit this article as an example. At any rate, it's certainly obvious that Rolen's outstanding defensive contribution has saved the Cardinals more than a handful of runs that they would have allowed with a player providing similar contributions at the hot corner to what Bonds has in left field. It's also just as clear that the Giants' pitchers would allow less runs with a player like Carl Crawford in left field rather than Bonds.
Sabermetricians Can Swing and Miss, Too
How do you counter all of the statistics that anyone defending Bonds can throw at you then? Discredit them. While any good sabermetrician will tell you that a walk is every bit as good as a hit, it simply isn't. Here goes... time to attack on the "Barry is just too good" front!
If I were ever asked to give a one sentence description of Barry Bonds, I would quote Pops Fisher from The Natural and say, "He's the best damn hitter I ever saw." Unfortunately, I would then have to move on to what happens 39.6% of the time that he steps to the plate... he walks. While Chris (and any sabermetrician) will tell you that he gets on base with a walk and has a successful at bat, this is only vaguely true. Let's take a look at how Bonds has done in games that are considered "Close and Late", or after the seventh inning with less than a three-run differential.
Bonds in games that are Close and Late: 11/30 (.367), 5 HR, 11 RBI, 1 SB, 34 BB
For those keeping score at home, 24 of those 34 walks are intentional passes, and his OBP in this situation is a ridiculous .703. Amazing, right? However......
Call me insane, but you would rather that the opposition wasn't so terrified of facing your best hitter that they actually pitch to him, wouldn't you? Bonds has been walked four more times in these crucial situations than the opposition has actually pitched to him. When the opposing manager is (crazy? stupid? gutsy?) enough to pitch to him, his success rate is incredible, with him smashing a homer every six (official) at bats and batting a tremendous .367, but that doesn't happen very often. Here's the combined replacement value of the two hitters who have been most frequently placed behind Barry in the order (Pedro Feliz and Edgardo Alfonzo) this season in the same situation:
36/131 (.275), 8 HR, 31 RBI, 7 BB
Good? Ehhhhh... not bad. As good as Barry? Absolutely not. While the two have combined for three more homers and 21 more RBI (in 101 more at bats), they certainly aren't as proficient at putting a positive ball into play. In fact, the two have combined for 22 strikeouts in this situation so far, or one more than Bonds has all season, regardless of the situation. So tell me again... would you rather have Barry Bonds on first base and Fonzie or Feliz batting, or would you rather have the opposition actually pitch to your team's best hitter? While this is certainly not Bonds' fault, it definitely detracts from his value that the bat is always taken out of his hands in any situation where he can hurt his opponent.
What could this entire argument have been leading to? While it could certainly be argued that the Giants' bullpen (guilty of 19 blown saves... second worst in the NL) is at least partially responsible, the Giants have a 13-16 record in one-run games.... good for 13th in the National League. If Bonds' ability was just human enough to allow the opposition to pitch to him with the game on the line, we would get a chance to see how truly valuable he can be. Instead, we just watch him get his free pass so that any number of (drastically) lesser hitters on the Giants can try and pick him up. More often than not, they fail.
I tried to go as sabermetric as I could with this argument in keeping within the context of attacking Barry's candidacy on his own ground, but there are other factors that should at least get a little mention. What gives more of a lift to a team? How about a crowd? What's really going to turn the momentum of a ballgame? A Scotty Rolen single or another one of those fan-friendly intentional passes that Bonds will take? I'll take the base hit every time.
It's Not How Many Games You Play, but How You Use Them?
Chris makes a very good point when he shows us how good the Giants are with and without Bonds, so let's re-iterate (and update) it through play on Monday.
Giants with Bonds: 50-34 (.595)
Giants without Bonds: 5-12 (.294)
Cardinals with Rolen: 62-34 (.646)
Cardinals without Rolen: 1-2 (.333)
While Chris' sample size is small, mine is even smaller. I understand that Barry turned 40 this weekend, and I'm sure that every single one of you who are reading this can realize that this means that he'll need the occasional extra day of rest over most younger players. It's also important to understand that a lot of things can and will change before the end of the season, so it's difficult to guage how the final standings will turn out by the end of the season.
That said, the Giants are now 5-12 (.294) without Barry Bonds in the lineup. If form were to hold true to how games have worked out when he's in the lineup, the Giants would be 10-7 in those seventeen games. Not too comfortable with your math skills? Don't worry... I'll help you out a bit.
The Giants currently sit one game behind the San Diego Padres for the wildcard lead and four and a half games behind their bitter rivals, the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West lead. A five game turnaround if Barry had been in the lineup every game would have them leading the division. Heck, if he'd only missed three games (as Rolen has), they would have still had a three game turnaround in their record, and would at least be in the driver's seat for the wildcard. As it stands, Barry's missed seventeen games so far this season, meaning the Giants are on the outside looking in instead.
Had a Little Help From My Friends
Rolen certainly hasn't been the same offensive force early on in the second half that he was before the break. His batting average has dropped 16 points since the day before the break, while his RBI production has tailed off since the last week of June. That said, he's still right there in the running for the batting title and leads the league by five ribbies over Coors-aided Vinny Castilla. Furthermore, he's played a huge part in Albert Pujols' league-leading runs pace by picking him up whenever he's on base. One could also argue that he's a key factor in Jim Edmonds' current career high pace for RBI.
Pujols' current run-scoring pace would see him score the most runs that any player has in the majors this decade. People can argue that Rolen's RBI total is only high because he bats behind Pujols in the Cardinals' order all they want. The fact is, he's gotten the job done behind Pujols. It doesn't matter how often that guy ahead of a batter gets on base if he can't get the job done.
Giants Performance out of the Five-Hole in the Order: 97/418 (.232), 11 HR, 62 RBI
Scott Rolen: 114/348 (.328), 21 HR, 89 RBI
Granted, this is yet another way to avoid going head to head with Barry, but let's look at just how good Bonds has made his teammates around him. While having Barry Bonds on in front of them would supposedly lead to at least 225 RBI opportunities, the Giants fifth hitters have flailed this season. In fact, they've knocked a runner in just 27.5% of the time that Bonds should have been on in front of them. Even subtracting Bonds' 25 homers (as he wasn't on base) from that equation, the Giants have driven a baserunner in right behind a successful Bonds' at bat just 31% of the time. Subtracting the Giants' 11 homers from the equation (meaning that they drove themselves in as 11 of those 62 RBI), they've knocked in just 50 baserunners ahead of them, or 25% of their chances with runners on. Is Barry making the Giants' hitters behind him better, or just setting them up to fail more often?
In contrast, let's look at Scott Rolen's RBI production after Albert Pujols reaches base. In total, Rolen has 89 RBI so far this season. Pujols has reached base 181 times, meaning that all-told, Rolen has a 49% chance of getting an RBI when Albert reaches. We'll pull a similar method that we did with Bonds for Albert Pujols, removing his 29 HR from the equation to realize that Rolen has been successful in driving in 58.5% of the opportunities when Pujols doesn't just reach, but is actually on base in front of him. Finally, we'll eliminate Rolen's 21 HR to see that even when he's not driving himself in, Rolen has succeeded in driving in a runner ahead of him (that isn't himself) 44.7% of the times that the great hitter in front of him is on base. While Chris can certainly make the argument that Rolen wouldn't be where he is without Pujols, you'd be hard pressed to find a team that's given half of the production that Rolen has batting behind his team's "best" hitter.
Rolen is batting .349 with runners on base, and a ridiculous .414 with runners in scoring position, which means that he's doing something right. Bonds is batting .379 and .372 respectively in those same situations, but the bat is still taken out of his hands more often than not. While Chris (among many others) will say that it's not right to punish Barry because opposing pitchers are cowards, it's not right to punish Rolen for taking advantage of his opportunities either.
The Bottom Line: Rolen has had the Superior Season
I have no delusions that Rolen is a better hitter than Bonds, but the MVP each season should go to the player who has been most valuable to his team this year! Bonds has had an amazing career, and an argument could certainly be made that he's more valuable than anyone else, but his overall contributions so far this season have done the following:
- Set the hitter behind him up to fail more often than any hitter in baseball
- Kept his team on the outside looking in at the playoffs because their best hitter isn't in the lineup often enough
- Provided below average outfield defense for a team that has centered its pitching around getting the ball in the air
Rolen, on the other hand, has:
- Driven in runners ahead of him better than any other player in the league so far this season
- Been the centerpiece of a defense that the Cardinals set up their entire pitching staff around
- Been the most important offensive and defensive factor in leading the surprising Cardinals to a ten game advantage within their division and the best record in the National League.
Who has had the better season? We're not talking about a career award here!
Yo Adrian! Neither of them should get it
We may turn this into a future article, so I'm going to be brief here. There's a third MVP candidate that nobody seems to be mentioning, and in my eyes, he's the person who the award should go to if the season were to end today. The Los Angeles Dodgers, coming off of one of (if not the) worst offensive seasons in MLB history, can point to a few guys who have suddenly turned the corner offensively, but only Adrian Beltre truly stands out.
Last season, the Dodgers hit a disgusting 124 homers en route to a horrific total of 574 total runs scored... a total that they've almost duplicated this season in late July. What's the difference? It's clearly Beltre. Beltre currently leads (well... I should say doubles) the Dodgers with 28 home runs, twice the total of their second best power hitter, Shawn Green. He's hit 24% of their home runs and driven in 16% of their total RBI while leading the club in nearly every offensive category.
Beltre's 73 RBI rank 20 ahead of the Dodgers' second best performer in that area (Green, 53). He leads the team with a .326 average (.020 better than Paul LoDuca's .306) and 60 runs scored (Green, 52). To top it all off, remember when we were talking about Rolen and his amazing defense that placed him in the top two in all three major defensive categories? Guess who the only other player is who places in the top five in all three of them... Beltre is a terrific defensive force as well.
But L.A.'s strength is their pitching staff, right? Could have fooled me. Only Odalis Perez is performing up to or exceeding expectations so far this season, while ace Hideo Nomo has arguably been the most disappointing starter in the big leagues in 2004. Heck... even Eric Gagne blew a save (ok.... that's a little sarcastic). Removing Beltre's production from the Dodgers, they would be on a similar pace offensively to where they were last year, and most likely trying to hold off the Colorado Rockies off for third place. Instead, the Dodgers currently lead the NL West by 3.5 games over the San Diego Padres.
As this article was supposed to be Rolen vs. Bonds, we're going to leave you with that. Perhaps we'll revisit Adrian Beltre's status in this race at some point, though.
Posted by Chris Wang: Jul 26 at 4:16 PM
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Admittedly I was biased going in, but this statement echoed my sentiments:
- Been the most important offensive and defensive factor in leading the surprising Cardinals to a ten game advantage within their division and the best record in the National League.
In the context of the Cards stellar season and Rolen's superb overall play (Bonds is a defensive liability), I'd give the nod to Rolen (as objectively as I can).
Pujols vs Rolen would be a tough call as well...
This also gives me the opportunity to have a rebuttal of a few of Jim's points in the article.
First of all, I would call Bonds an average defender, not a sub-par defender. Of the NL outfielders that qualify in fielding percentage, Bonds ranks 5th of 9 in zone rating and range factor - exactly in the middle of the pack. When looking at the entire league, Bonds is slighty below average but Carl Crawford and Jose Guillen could easily be playing CF and RF, respectively - basically Bonds is an average defender. I'd also mention that he ranks 3rd in outfield assists for left fielders.
Secondly is the point of St. Louis having a starting staff built around the ground ball and the Giants have a starting staff skewed toward the flyball - thus exploiting Barry's "subpar" defense. Is this true? Yes it is, but is it significant? Hardly. Take a look at the numbers. The Cards starting staff gets 14.3 groundballs per nine innings vs. the Giants 13.4 groundballs - the difference is less than one grounder per game. The Cards starting staff gets 7.6 flyballs per nine innings vs the Giants 10.2 - the difference is 1.6 flyballs per game. Would the Giants benefit from having Carl Crawford playing leftfield, of course they would; but are they suffering because of Bonds... rarely. Also remember that it's the right center field gap that is the cavern at Pac Bell, not left center.
Thirdly, I agree that Rolen's defense is the best at the hot corner but how much credit do you give a guy that touches the ball 3.1 times per game - making essentially one inning worth of outs. How many of those are tough chances? How many are routine? How many runs were saved. Unfortunately I don't have the answers... Is Rolen the "centerpiece" of the defense? Maybe but the up the middle defense (SS, 2B) touch the ball roughly 50% more each than the 3B.
Fourth would be the funny numbers of Rolen driving in Pujols 44.7% of the time that Pujols reaches. The numbers don't quite jive because Rolen drives in other hitters besides Pujols, like Womack and Renteria. But let there be no doubt that Scott Rolen has been the best cleanup hitter in the league with RISP this season. Unsurprisingly he has the second highest batting average with RISP (Johnny Estrada is hitting .425) and thus the most RBI.