The Blue Line: Early Notes on Draft Season
September 20, 2006
By
James Meyerriecks
You are now entering the offensive zone. Just don't get caught with your head down!
With draft season in full swing, I'd love to be able to bring you details on who seems to be slipping and who seems to be getting overvalued in all draft formats. However, since none of the usual suspects are putting their usual draft analysis up (yet), I'm going to have to limit things to the handful of drafts that I've had myself.
First, some notes on some players who are available and not available, depending upon what site you use to draft on. As most of our users (and myself) participate in leagues on Yahoo, that's where we're going.
- Yahoo avoided the whole Alexander Ovechkin mess from last year and made Evgeni Malkin available in drafts. He has actually gone with the 89th overall pick in both drafts I've participated in. This is about 50 spots higher than we project him in the draft kit, where we have him slotted as the #39 center and #143 player available on draft day.
- Phil Kessel is in the Yahoo database, and was selected late in one of the two drafts I've participated in. How (or where) he'll perform this season is anyone's guess. I've heard some claim that he's going to play on the Bruins' second line, though there's a good chance that he'll start the year in the minors. A natural centerman, Kessel would have to move out to the wing to play on one of Boston's two top lines this season, as they actually already have three capable centers in Patrice Bergeron, Marc Savard, and Brad Boyes.
- In what could only have been an oversight, Ryan Whitney (ranked 17th among defensemen by FIC) and former Calder Trophy winner Barrett Jackman are not in the Yahoo database, despite playing in 62 and 63 games respectively last season. They're both valuable defensemen for different reasons (Whitney as a Power Play QB and Jackman as a consistent source of +/- and PIMS), and are certainly worth looking for on the wire as soon as Yahoo adds them.
- Though it's merely a cosmetic issue, Yahoo seems to have mixed up the rankings of Brad Richards and Mike Richards. Thankfully, they haven't mixed up their statistics. Mike Richards (11 G/23 A/6 PPP) is ranked 52nd overall by Yahoo, while Brad (23 G/68 A/46 PPP) is ranked 95th. It's nothing big, but it's something to keep an eye out for if you don't pre-rank. Just make sure you're not grabbing Mike when you're thinking you're drafting Brad.
And now, onto the notes that we've seen to this point.....
Taking it from the top, here's what we're seeing:
- It looks like people are accepting Joe Thornton as the clear number one pick, which seems about right. Though he plays at the deepest position in fantasy hockey (again, Malkin 39th!), Thornton does it all, and he did score 92 points in 58 games after being dealt to San Jose last year. I'd consider Kipper (considerably better value for his position), Sidney Crosby, or Alexander Ovechkin here with Thornton, but not much else.
- Expect the big three goalies (Miikka Kiprusoff, Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo) to all come off the board in the first round. If you can't end up with one of these three, it's safe to hold off until the second to grab a guy like Tomas Vokoun or maybe Manny Fernandez. If you're taking any other goalie before the fourth round or so, you're overpaying (and many will).
- People are jumping the gun on the big names on defense, but isn't that always the case? Chris Pronger didn't make it out of the second round of either of my drafts, while Scott Niedermayer went shortly thereafter in both. Neither are big sources of PIMS, while they're likely to eat into each other's Power Play time a bit. Nicklas Lidstrom is a terrific player, but he's not a first-rounder, as he's been in both of my drafts. I'd certainly take a Joni Pitkanen (avg. draft slot 57.5) or Bryan McCabe (avg. draft slot 42.5) two or three rounds later, as they provide plenty of PIMS and similar point and PPP totals.
- Brenden Morrow isn't quite getting the respect that he deserves in drafts that I've seen. Morrow, who is the closest thing to Todd Bertuzzi (in his prime) that the NHL has at this point, actually slipped to me late in the third round of a seventeen-team league the other night. In an Experts draft that I've seen, Morrow was a mid-first rounder. I'm not prepared to go that far (Morrow ranks ninth overall in our draft kit, though that may be skewed for typical league formats because we include SHP), but he's a mid-second rounder at the very least.
Morrow was a quality player before the lockout, and came back and scored a career-best 65 points and racked up a whopping 183 PIMS in his first season after it. He's a lock for 150 PIM, and should boost his point total once again this season. Someone's going to have to pick up the slack on the Power Play now that Bill Guerin's in St. Louis, which will make Morrow even more valuable.
- Peter Forsberg's getting no love. All he did last year was score 75 points in 60 games and go +21. I have him in both my leagues, taking him in the third (fourteen team league) and fourth (seventeen team league) respectively. Who knows how far he would have sunk if I hadn't snatched up the no-brainer pick.
- Mark Bell's recent DWI isn't scaring anyone off. He went an average of 64th overall in the drafts I've taken part in. The kid looks like he's in for a breakout in San Jose, but I figured that he might be a solid sleeper. In the fifth or sixth round, I'm not so sure.
- Though he broke out last season (10 G/29 A/+34), we're about to see a huge jump in points out of Andrej Meszaros this season. With Zdeno Chara gone to Boston, Meszaros will get a lot more ice-time, including plenty of time on the Power Play. While the Sens went out and grabbed Tom Preissing in the offseason, he's not in the same league. Meszaros is being a little undervalued to this point.
- Patrice Bergeron has no business slipping to the sixth round, as he did in two drafts I've taken part in. He's putting up a point a game easy this year.
- Another glitch with the rankings on Yahoo! Jose Theodore is buried deep in the goalie rankings. Don't sleep on him; he's coming off a down year, but looked a little better down the stretch with Colorado than he did in Montreal last season. He's the unquestioned starter for the Avs, and past performance says he's a darkhorse Vezina candidate.
- Don't be the guy to take Frantisek Kaberle (out six months) or Cory Stillman (out three to four months). They've both been drafted in the middle rounds by some poor soul in each of my leagues.
- While Kari Lehtonen seemed to be going almost too early last year (3rd/4th round in most drafts), neither of this year's big sleeper goaltenders seem to be going too high. Hannu Toivonen averaged going at the 165th overall pick, shortly after his backup Tim Thomas. In the meantime, Marc-Andre Fleury averaged a draft position of 162, and that's just because I was sick of looking at his name in my queue.
The Bruins made some great strides both offensively (adding Marc Savard) and defensively (adding Paul Mara and Chara) in front of Toivonen, who is the starter in Boston for all those loving Tim Thomas! As a rookie last season, Toivonen was brilliant before getting hurt, going 9-5-4 with a 2.63 GAA and .914 Save Percentage. He should be a top fifteen goalie by year's end.
The improvements ahead of Fleury will primarily come because the Pens simply can't get much worse. However, another year of experience for Ryan Whitney, Sidney Crosby, and Colby Armstrong won't hurt. The addition of Nils Ekman gives Pittsburgh a viable Selke candidate up front as well. Both teams figure to be big movers in the East, and both young former first-round picks will reap the benefits.
- Tuomo Ruutu (avg. draft slot 219.5) isn't getting a lot of love, though it's understandable after he missed much of last season. Just remember the kid who put up 44 points and 58 PIMS as a rookie and consider that he just might get to see some time with Martin Havlat this season. He could end up being the steal of the draft if you see him sitting there in the fifteenth round.
- Cam Ward is getting way too much love based on last season's playoff run. He's averaged a draft position of 36 through two drafts I've witnessed, and was the seventh and tenth goaltender selected in the two drafts. Though we went slightly on the conservative side ranking him, he's seventeenth according to FIC's preseason rankings. While his amazing postseason run certainly helps him, it's hard to forget that he had a 3.68 GAA and an .882 Save Percentage in 22 regular season starts last year. As the starter in Carolina, he'll have a much better year in his second season, but don't expect miracles. Keeping that postseason run going over a full year at his age is extremely unlikely.
"The Blue Line" will be our new hockey column, where we'll focus on all the relevant fantasy factoids in the NHL each week. As soon as we get the blogs back up and running, I'll paste a link each week to our semi-weekly blog, "Neutral Zone Trap" in the column as well.
James Meyerriecks has been actively involved at FIC since its inception in 2001, and has been writing The Hook for the past four seasons. He's also represented FIC in a handful of Experts Leagues over the past three seasons and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
Feature Articles 
Though it's merely a cosmetic issue, Yahoo seems to have mixed up the rankings of Brad Richards and Mike Richards. Thankfully, they haven't mixed up their statistics. Mike Richards (11 G/23 A/6 PPP) is ranked 52nd overall by Yahoo, while Brad (23 G/68 A/46 PPP) is ranked 95th. It's nothing big, but it's something to keep an eye out for if you don't pre-rank. Just make sure you're not grabbing Mike when you're thinking you're drafting Brad.
First off, Nolan didn't go in either of the drafts. It's going to be difficult to figure out what we're going to get out of him this season. He still has a sniper's mentality and also racks up the PIMS, but he hasn't played since 2003-04 before the lockout. In a really deep league, I'd consider him in the late rounds. Unless you're taking a ton of talent off the board, though, I'd consider him waiver wire fodder. Just be the first to pounce if he looks like the Owen of old.
No recommended actually grabbing them, just to keep an eye on them. IMO Nolan is shot. Chuk on the other hand, might have something left, but I am in line with you connexion in that I would rather have a younger guy in there over Chuk. I certainly do not think that he is un-ownable by any stretch of the word.
connexion, I can tell you that all three guys you mention above are all gone in the board league we have here. Don't think because one person asked one question about Nolan that no one knows whats going on.
BTW, Nolan is sitting on the WW in our league also. There is a big difference between someone saying to drop someone and pick him up, and keep an eye on him.