Feature Articles

The Blue Line: Sleepers By James Meyerriecks

You are now entering the offensive zone. Just don't get caught with your head down!

Part of the reason that I don't play in many fantasy football leagues (seriously... fantasy geek that I am, I'm in one football league this year) is that they can be won on the strength of one or two picks near the top of the draft. In hockey, baseball, and even (cough) basketball leagues, this is much more rare. You're not going to luck into that one running back who is going to win the rushing and scoring title and carry your team every week in the first round. While many fantasy football leagues are won or lost on the strength of your top two or three picks, baseball and hockey leagues tend to be lost, but not won in the early rounds.

Identifying a handful of sleeper options is vital to the success of an owner in any fantasy sport. However, over the next couple of seasons in hockey, it's even more important than ever. Because of the lockout in 2004-05 (and subsequent rule changes), NHL hockey is almost a completely different game than it was before. You needn't look any further than some of the players who burst onto the scene last year to notice. Young players who were given an extra year to develop (Eric Staal, Jason Spezza, Sidney Crosby, Jonathan Cheechoo to name a few) flourished, while some of the dinosaurs of the old, tired, slower system had the worst seasons of their careers.

What we're here to do today is to help you identify some of the players who are going to take big steps forward in 2006-07. While it's doubtful that there's someone who's going to take quite the tremendous leaps forward that Cheechoo, Staal, and Spezza took last season, all of these are guys that are likely to be undervalued on draft day.

Centers

1. Tuomo Ruutu - Ruutu was atop many a sleeper list last season, but it ended up being a lost year for him as he missed most of the season with back and ankle problems. Like his older brother Jarkko, Ruutu loves to muck it up, and will be a fantastic source of PIMS when he's in the lineup. Unlike Jarkko, there's a lot more to his game. Ruutu managed 44 points as a rookie in 2003-04 before the lockout, and has good speed and great hands. The addition of Martin Havlat and an extra year of experience for some of the other young guns around him could mean a breakout of sorts. Be wary, though... he's already out for the first four weeks after getting nailed by a dirty hit from the Blue Jackets' Rostislav Klesla.

2. Nathan Horton - The former third overall pick in Florida holds a lot of value for the same reason that Ruutu does... he loves to muck it up. Horton had a pretty strong rookie campaign before the lockout in 2003-04, scoring 22 points in 55 games. He showed that he had matured a bit last season, notching 47 points (including 28 goals) in his second season in just 71 games. While he's not currently slated to begin the year on the first line with Olli Jokinen and Todd Bertuzzi, chances are that he'll supplant old man Gary Roberts eventually and take his spot alongside the Panthers' two most talented offensive forces. Oh, by the way, he's a cinch for 100 PIMS if he doesn't miss any time.

3. Matthew Lombardi - In fantasy hockey, it's not always best to take the best player. Sometimes you're better off taking a guy who is being given a better chance to succeed. The early indications are that Lombardi, who has just 55 points in 134 career games and has looked more like a checking line center for much of his career, will center Jarome Iginla and Alex Tanguay on the first line in Calgary. Lombardi has terrific speed, good vision, and a bit of a mean streak. He'll allow Iginla and Tanguay to focus a bit more on their play in the offensive zone, but he'll also work himself into a career year in terms of points because of his linemates.

4. Josef Vasicek - After missing most of last season and finishing with just 9 points in 23 games, Vasicek's name isn't on many peoples' lips right now. However, the big gritty center's trade to Nashville in the offseason will put him in an ideal situation. While he was stuck behind the likes of Eric Staal and Rod Brind'amour in Carolina, Vasicek steps onto an equally deep team that looks like they're going to give him much more valuable ice time. While Jason Arnott and David Legwand are arguably more talented (and certainly more proven) pivots, Vasicek is slated to begin the year centering the top line in Nashville, which will boast uber-talented Paul Kariya on his left and soft sniper J.P. Dumont on his right. He'll use his size to protect them, and will vulture plenty of points from the two as well. If that's not a recipe for success, I don't know what is.

5. Gilbert Brule - My favorite for the Calder, Brule isn't catching a lot of fanfare due to the Russian invasion (Evgeni Malkin of the Pens) and the return of one of his teammates (Nikolai Zherdev) to Russia. Brule will likely begin the year as the second line center in Columbus, which means he won't have the opportunity to take advantage of a linemate like Rick Nash. However, he doesn't need him. Brule has been a dominant two-way player in each of the last three years in juniors, and thrived immediately with four points in seven games in a short trial in the NHL last season. He has supreme speed, terrific playmaking ability, and plays well in his own zone. In keeper leagues, the nineteen-year-old former sixth overall pick is gold. In single-season leagues, he's a nice guy to take a flyer on late.

Left Wing

1. Nils Ekman - Again, we're going with the linemate option, and you simply can't beat the linemate that Ekman has found this offseason. After being traded from the Sharks to Pittsburgh for a fourth-rounder, Ekman is expected to land on the Pens' first line alongside wunderkind Sidney Crosby. Ekman, who has been a solid 55+ point man for the past two years in San Jose, should be able to build off of his new linemates to improve upon his career bests. His strength lies on the defensive side of the ice, which will prove to be important with a tandem that's as focused offensively as Crosby and Colby Armstrong are.

2. Jussi Jokinen - Though his rookie campaign was certainly overshadowed by the likes of Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, Jokinen still exploded onto the scene in Dallas last season, particularly with the new shootout system that's used to break ties. Though he's not nearly as big or vicious as his older brother Olli, Jokinen is just as skilled offensively, and should show some improvement in his second season. It's not like many of his fantasy owners were complaining about the 55 points he put up in 80 games as a rookie in 2005-06, and he did see enough time on the Power Play to net 31 PPP last season as well. However, his name's not being called early in drafts, and he's ranked as low as 36th among left wingers by some league sites. Jokinen will play on the first line along with Mike Modano and Jere Lehtinen in Dallas, which should give him plenty of opportunities to showcase his skills.

3. Mark Bell - While Ekman left the Sharks and will join a much stronger line, Bell could form 1/3 of what figures to be one of the top lines in hockey this season. Bell, who landed in San Jose in a three-way deal that sent Martin Havlat to the Blackhawks and Tom Preissing to the Senators, has been playing left wing on the first line with Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo for the Sharks this preseason, and he should be staying there all year. Thornton's presence last year helped transform Jonathan Cheechoo from a decent young scorer into a Rocket Richard Trophy winner as the league's leading goal scorer. If you need more than that, Bell has scored about fifty points in each of the last two years and had 100+ PIMS three years running.

4. Stanislav Chistov - Chistov was a sleeper on many peoples' lists in the seasons leading up to the lockout. However, he'll re-enter the league as a forgotten name this season after spending last year with Metallurg Magnitogorsk (sound familiar?) in Russia. Chistov didn't have a great year with Metallurg last season, but he did manage 32 points and 97 PIMS in 47 games. Most line projections have him playing alongside young star Ryan Getzlaf for the Ducks, so he should be able to vulture some points in Anaheim.

5. Wojtek Wolski - Wolski showcased plenty of talent in a short stint with the Avs last season (6 points in 9 games) while winning the Red Tilson Trophy as the OHL's Most Outstanding Player for his performance with Brampton in Juniors. Wolski had 47 goals and 81 assists in just 56 games in Juniors last season, and has the skills to become a tremendous scorer immediately in the NHL. He also has fantastic size at 6'3, 200, and should develop into a force that can be difficult to move off the puck. Unfortunately, there's not much of a mean streak to speak of here (he also won the OHL's equivalent of the Lady Byng), so don't count on a lot of PIMS.

Right Wing

1. Colby Armstrong - Armstrong gets placed here for many of the same reasons that Ekman does. He'll share a line with Ekman and Crosby this season. For anyone that wasn't paying attention last season, Armstrong put up 40 points in 47 games alongside Crosby after earning a promotion from Scranton Wilkes-Barre. He also showed some aptitute in his own zone, finishing with a +14 rating on the league's second worst team, and shows that he loves to muck it up, finishing with 58 PIMS in just 47 games. Armstrong is the prototypical power forward, and figures to be the Kevin Stevens to Sid the Kid's Mario Lemieux for the next few years.

2. Petr Prucha - How quickly we forget that he was an absolute monster sharing a line with Michael Nylander and Jaromir Jagr for much of last season. Prucha missed some time down the stretch, which surely hurt his value a bit entering the 2006-07 season, but he'll again have a chance to skate next to his countrymen this winter. Prucha figures to develop into a strong player in the next few years with or without Jagr on his opposite wing, but having one of the top players in the game as his linemate will continue to accelerate his development.

3. Glen Murray - Murray certainly fell off the map after the Joe Thornton trade last season, and many believe that he needs an elite centerman to get him the puck. In Marc Savard, he'll have one. Savard certainly didn't make Ilya Kovalchuk into a star, but both the Bruins and Thrashers are going to learn this season just how valuable he was to Kovalchuk. Savard has tremendous vision on the ice and owns a good shot himself. He's at his best when he's feeding his linemates, though, and Murray can be a heck of a sniper when he has someone getting the puck to him in space. Look for a major rebound.

4. Patrick Eaves - What was the best line in hockey last season? If you guessed Heatley-Spezza-Alfredsson, you're dead on. The expectation heading into this season is that the Sens will break it up, though, dropping Alfie to the second line to help throw a little extra support in the way of Alexi Kaigorodov and Antoine Vermette. That leaves the right side wide open for Eaves, who showed a lot of scoring prowess in his first chance to play at the NHL level last season. Eaves finished his rookie year with 29 points (20 of them goals) in just 58 games. Given an opportunity to play alongside Spezza and Heatley all year, he could be a fantasy monster waiting to happen.

5. Jason Pominville - Pominville's biggest claim to fame entering this season would have to be his series ending shorthanded marker against the Sens where he absolutely blew by Daniel Alfredsson and finished off the East's top regular season team in overtime. Simply put, Pominville has speed to burn, and he knows how to use it. After scoring at about a point a game pace in three of his first four AHL seasons, the youngster got his first chance with the Sabres last year, and didn't disappoint. Pominville accounted for 30 points in just 57 games with Buffalo last season, and will get his first chance to stay with the big club all year in 2006-07. While Pominville's size is far from ideal, his speed makes him the perfect candidate to play on the Power Play and see some time shorthanded as an option that can catch the opposing defensemen pinching. I've seen some places listing Pominville on the Sabres first line, though he's clearly not at the same level as a Maxim Afinogenov. He may play there, though, with all the scoring depth in Buffalo.

Defensemen

1. Marc-Andre Bergeron - Bergeron had to sit and wait behind Chris Pronger as the top Power Play QB in Edmonton last season, but should ascend to the top spot on the depth chart with Pronger gone. He did make the most of his time there last season, netting sixteen points (eight goals) in limited power play action, as he finished with thirty-five points overall. Bergeron has elite speed, loves to carry the puck into the neutral zone, and even complements the rest of his skill set with a tremendous shot. Unfortunately, he's a little weak in his own zone, but we can live with that if he's scoring the ton of points he should this season.

2. Matt Carle - The Hobey Baker winner in 2005-06, Carle figures to immediately have a chance to succeed at the highest level this season. With Brad Stuart gone in last season's deal for Joe Thornton and Tom Preissing gone to Ottawa in a swap that netted the club Mark Bell, Carle figures to take over the spot as the top Power Play QB for a team that figures to do a lot of damage. In last season's (albeit brief) trial with the club, Carle mustered six points (three goals) in just twelve games at the NHL level, and Christian Ehrhoff isn't going to block his path this season for long.

3. Ryan Whitney - Though he wasn't getting the respect from some stat services that he deserved (Whitney has been added to Yahoo leagues at this point......) early on, Whitney clearly did all we could have asked from him last season. After scoring 38 points in just 68 games as a rookie, he'll likely find himself playing the point along with Sergei Gonchar on the club's top Power Play unit. He has a bit of a mean streak as well, and finished last season with 85 PIMS in 68 games, while keeping a solid +/- on a poor team.

4. Jay Bouwmeester - Bouwmeester has shown slight improvement in each of his first three NHL seasons, and this is the year where he finally completely busts out of his shell. Through much of last season, he didn't seem very confident in his shot, which was the major reason that he finished with just 5 goals (and 41 assists). However, it's notable that those five goals all came in the seasons' final two months. Bouwmeester seemed to take a little time to find his comfort zone last season, but could threaten the twenty goal plateau this year if he finds it early on. He has fantastic size, can play well in his own end, and incredible vision on the ice.

5. Kurtis Foster - At 6'5, 235, it's impossible not to like this kid's size, but it's his skill in the offensive zone that has gained him a little notoriety entering this season. Foster managed 28 points (18 on the Power Play) in 58 games as a rookie last season, and only figures to get better as he becomes more accustomed to the NHL. He doesn't have the breakaway speed of a Bergeron, and actually struggles with his skating at times because of his size. However, he does have great vision on the ice and his shot can overpower goaltenders. Toss in the fact that he's an absolute monster in his own end, and he could develop into a poor man's Chris Pronger.

Goaltenders

1. Marc Denis - Let's face it... the Lightning took a big step back last year, and part of that was due to the fact that they didn't have a true number one goaltender. In Denis, they picked one up this offseason. He should reap the benefits of a better defensive corps than he ever had in Columbus and playing behind a team that should score a lot more goals for him.

2. Hannu Toivonen - Though he missed the second half of last season with an ankle injury, it's hard to see what more fantasy owners wanted from the second best goaltending prospect currently at the NHL level. Toivonen was fantastic when healthy last season, finishing with a 2.63 GAA and .914 Save Percentage behind a poor defensive team. By the way, you can expect for the squad in front of him to look a lot better in 2006-07, now that they've added Zdeno Chara, Paul Mara, and Marc Savard among others to the fold.

3. Robert Esche - With the news that Antero Niittymakki will be out for six to eight weeks coming down in the past couple of days, Esche now has a leg up in what figured to be close to a 50/50 platoon in Philadelphia. A hot start could propel him to re-claim his job as the unquestioned number one in Philadelphia, and we've seen what he can do in the past.

4. Marc-Andre Fleury - While Fleury took a step forward last season, shaving .4 off his GAA and improving slightly on his save percentage, this figures to be the season that could make or break his career. Fleury will enter 2006-07 as the unquestioned number one behind a team that's clearly on the rise. While Pittsburgh doesn't necessarily look like a playoff team yet, they're bound to give him a few more goals to work with offensively and their defense simply can't be as spotty as it was last season. Fleury may end up as a Top 10-15 goalie by the end of the year, though most would have him sitting barely inside the top thirty right now.

5. Manny Legace - Let's face it. Everybody and their mother is running as far away from Legace as they possibly can because of his move to St. Louis. However, the Blues don't figure to be the worst team in the NHL (as they were last year) after some crafty offseason moves netted them Jay McKee, Doug Weight, and Bill Guerin (to name a few). While most would have you believe that Legace is coming off a career year, his GAA (2.19) was pretty much right at his career average (2.21) and his save percentage (.915) was actually a bit off of his career average (.917). Simply put, Legace is a quality goaltender, and nobody seems to want to accept it. He'll be just fine in St. Louis, and could easily be a surprise thirty-game winner with a GAA well under 2.50 and a save percentage over .910.

We'll be back next week with our predictions for the NHL season. This should be ready to be posted in column form (rather than it's current feature article status) in the coming days.

James Meyerriecks has been actively involved at FIC since its inception in 2001, and has been writing The Hook for the past four seasons. He's also represented FIC in a handful of Experts Leagues over the past three seasons and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.

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