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Pacific Report - 10/25/06
October 25, 2006
By James Meyerriecks

Team

Team

Wins

Losses

OTL

Points

GF

GA

Last 10

Dallas

8

1

0

16

29

15

8-1-0

Anaheim

6

0

2

14

24

17

6-0-2

San Jose

7

2

0

14

32

20

7-2-0

Los Angeles

3

5

2

8

22

29

3-5-2

Phoenix

2

8

0

4

19

44

2-8-0

 

Dallas Stars

 

Hot: Brenden Morrow (4 G, 5 A, 2 GWG), Mike Ribeiro (3 G, 4 A), Eric Lindros (1 G, 6 A, 20 PIM), Marty Turco (7-1-0, 1.86 GAA, .936 Sv. %)

 

Cold: Jaroslav Modry (0 G, 1 A), Jeff Halpern (0 G, 2 A)

 

Injuries: Patrik Stefan (D2D, Hand Infection)

 

The Stars are blazing out of the gates, primarily because of their astounding defense and goaltending (1st in GAA). Marty Turco, coming off of a down year in terms of his ratio categories, has looked like the pre-lockout version to this point, and is stopping everything in sight. While he’s yet to post his first shutout of the young season (backup Mike Smith did in his only start to this point), Turco has allowed two goals or less in six of his eight starts.

 

New captain Brenden Morrow is indeed taking more of a leadership role on the ice in a couple of different ways. Morrow, who the Stars severely need to step up a little more than he has in the past couple of seasons on the scoresheet, is averaging a point a game in the early-going, and has already netted four goals. More importantly, perhaps (though it hurts his fantasy value), Morrow has been much more disciplined in terms of staying out of the penalty box. After spending 183 minutes in the box last season, the Stars would like to see him to avoid taking crucial penalties without losing his edge physically. If he can keep it up, Morrow will still be a fantasy monster, but he won’t be the Todd Bertuzzi clone you were after when you drafted him.

 

A couple of newcomers highlight the hot list for the Stars. Canadiens’ castoff Mike Ribeiro is currently second on the team with seven points, and has at least one point in five of his eight games this season. Ribeiro, a former twenty goal scorer who posted 65 points the year before the lockout, has the potential to step into a big role on the second line with the Stars, and should feed off of an opportunity to work with Eric Lindros. Speaking of Lindros, he always scores when he’s healthy, and this season is no exception. He’s notched seven points through the team’s first nine games, and even seems to have added a bit of a mean streak to go with his tremendous size. Lindros has hit the box in all but two of his nine starts this season, and should easily hit 100 PIMS if (and with Lindros, it’s always a very big if) he can stay healthy.

 

It’s difficult to find a pair of players who aren’t red hot on a team that’s won eight of its first nine, but there are a couple of guys struggling to get on the scoresheet. Jeff Halpern isn’t a fantasy stud by any stretch of the imagination, but he’s got just two helpers so far this season. Playing on the third line certainly can’t be helping him much, so this figures to be a struggle all season long. Jaroslav Modry has been a solid 35-40 point defenseman in the past with the Kings and Thrashers, but he’s finding that there’s a little too much blue-line depth for him to see enough time on the Power Play to make a difference. Thus far, he has just one point, and it didn’t come with the man advantage.

 

Next Five: vs. Detroit, vs. Los Angeles*, vs. St. Louis, at Edmonton, at Vancouver

 

The Red Wings have yet to show us they’re anything more than a shadow of last year’s team, so start Turco safely in all five. Expect for Mike Smith to see his second start of the year against Los Angeles in the second of back to back nights. The Kings, Blues, and Canucks aren’t really scaring anyone with their offenses right now, though the Oilers are bound to present a challenge. The same goes for the skaters, though Roberto Luongo looms large against the ‘Nucks.

 

Anaheim Ducks

 

Hot: Jean-Sebastian Giguere (5-0-2, 1.78 GAA, .941 Sv. %), Chris Kunitz (4 G, 3 A, 6 PPP), Corey Perry (3 G, 4 A, 4 PPP)

 

Cold: Ilya Bryzgalov (Made Just Two Starts), Francois Beauchemin (0 G, 1 A)

 

Injuries: None

 

While Teemu Selanne and Andy McDonald are supposed to be asked to carry the scoring on this team up front, it’s been the sophomore trio of Kunitz, Perry, and Ryan Getzlaf that’s carried the offense so far. All three have very bright futures, both in fantasy and real hockey, though it’s doubtful that they’ll be able to carry the team to the lofty expectations that the media has laid out (the Ducks were picked to win it all by a number of major publications). As they gain experience and continue to play together, expect Kunitz, Perry, and Getzlaf to become big names in the coming years.

 

Jiggy has gotten hot, and there’s little that Bryzgalov is going to be able to do about that. The Ducks have a couple of legitimate number one goalies, meaning that Mike Babcock probably rides the hot hand all year. Bryzgalov hasn’t been bad by any stretch of the imagination (1-0-0, 2.03 GAA, .939 Sv. %), but Giguere has been amazing in the early-going. He’s allowed two or fewer goals in four of his six starts, while gaining at least a point in each of them. He did replace Bryzgalov in his second start, when Babcock got a little upset with Bryzgalov for allowing a pair of short side goals.

 

This team’s strength lies with their top two defensemen, and both Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger have gotten off to strong starts. They’ll need Beauchemin to step up and give them another puck-moving defenseman if they have designs on truly making a run at the Cup, though.

 

Next Five: vs. Edmonton, at Minnesota, at Chicago*, at St. Louis, vs. NY Rangers

 

You have to keep riding Jiggy here if you have him, but he’ll face a couple of terrific offenses in the Oilers and Wild (even without Marian Gaborik) to start this stretch. Chicago could also present some problems if Martin Havlat is back, while the Rangers loom as another team capable of doing some damage offensively. The Ducks’ skaters may have trouble getting the puck by Dwayne Roloson and Manny Fernandez, but should be able to put some points up in the final three.

 

San Jose Sharks

 

Hot: Milan Michalek (6 G, 4 A, 6 PPP), Jonathan Cheechoo (5 G, 5 A), Matt Carle (2 G, 7 A, 4 PPP), Steve Bernier (2 G, 6 A, 6 PPP), Vesa Toskala (5-0-0, 1.99 GAA, .926 Sv. %), Evgeni Nabokov (2 SHO), Patrick Marleau (4 G, 7 A, 7 PPP)

 

Cold: Ville Nieminen (1 G), Mike Grier (1 G)

 

Injuries: Ryan Clowe (1-2 Weeks, Foot)

 

The Sharks complete the trifecta of fantastic teams within the Pacific, though they do things a bit differently. While the Stars and Ducks rely more on their great defense, the Sharks are easily one of the top offensive teams in the league. The emergence of second-line wingers Michalek and Bernier only underscore that, as now the Sharks have not one, but two dominant scoring lines led by bigtime pivots. Joe Thornton and Jonathan Cheechoo are again working their magic on the top line, and they’ve even added a third potential breakout star in Mark Bell. However, while Thornton has been up to his old tricks in finding his linemates (10 assists), he’s yet to score his first goal on the season.

 

Though it’s still early, the second line of Michalek-Marleau-Bernier has been the best line on this team. They’re dominating both at even strength and on the Power Play while consistently showing up from night to night (Michalek and Marleau have points in 7 of 9 starts, while Bernier has a point in 6 of 9). However, having a stronger second line surrounding Marleau has been the Sharks’ problem for a couple of years now, so having a second line that can stick with the first makes them even more frightening. Thornton, Cheechoo, and Bell have been strong this season as well, and neither line looks to drop off significantly.

 

Rookie Matt Carle has been exactly what the Sharks were looking for along the blue-line, and is currently tied for the lead among defensemen with nine points on the year. He’s been solid in his own zone, while he’s been an absolute force on the offensive end of the ice. He has a nice shot, fantastic vision, and an uncanny ability to get the pucks to his forwards in space. Christian Ehrhoff hasn’t been bad either, but it’s clear who will continue to be the QB on the top unit of the Power Play based on Carle’s early showing.

 

The Sharks couldn’t ask for much more from their goaltenders either. Toskala has won twelve straight regular season starts dating back to last season, and has been fantastic in three of his five wins to this point. Nabokov has run a little more hot and cold, posting two shutouts to go along with a pair of lemons. They’ll continue to alternate for the time being, though the hot rumor is that the Bruins have been talking to the Sharks about Nabby in a deal that might involve Glen Murray coming to San Jose.

 

Neither Nieminen nor Grier are asked to do that much offensively, but neither are looking like the 20 goal scorers that many thought they could be earlier in their careers. They’re nice checking line players who will maintain a solid enough +/- playing against opponents’ top lines.

 

Next Five: at Detroit, at Nashville*, at Florida, at Tampa Bay, NY Rangers

 

The Sharks handled Columbus to start their five-game road trip the other night, but it’s about to get a little tougher. Detroit and Nashville figure to be two legitimate playoff teams, while Tampa and Florida are both very talented offensive clubs. Long road trips can wear on a team, so there’s a possibility they’ll look a little sluggish when they head to the Sunshine State. They’ll face elite goaltenders in their next two games, but they’ve already proven they can beat Hasek (and did, 5-1 last week in San Jose). Keep the skaters in the lineup regardless.

 

Los Angeles Kings

 

Hot: Anze Kopitar (3 G, 8 A, 4 PPP), Brent Sopel (2 G, 5 A), Mike Cammalleri (5 G, 2 A), Mathieu Garon (2-1-1, 1.59 GAA, .946 Sv. %)

 

Cold: Craig Conroy (1 A, -4), Rob Blake (2 A, -5), Dan Cloutier (1-4-1, 3.73 GAA, .878 Sv. %)

 

Injuries: Alyn McCauley (Knee Surgery, ????)

 

The Kings don’t figure to make a playoff run, but they can still do some damage up front. Rookie Anze Kopitar has been doing just that, showcasing great hands, good vision, and good speed to create eleven points in his first ten games. Kopitar figures to be a fixture on the Kings’ first line for years to come, and he’s as exciting a youngster as there is to watch in the league.

 

Coming off a 55 point first full season in the NHL, you would think that more fantasy owners would have paid attention to Cammalleri in the preseason. It’s their loss if they missed out, as he’s already got seven points (including five goals) in the first ten games of the year. He should bump his point total closer to 70 this season playing with Kopitar, and is certainly worth a look if he’s sitting on your Free Agent list.

 

After a couple of strong seasons earlier in his career with Vancouver, Sopel dropped off everyone’s radar with a weak showing on Long Island in 2005-06 (28 points in 68 games). Early on this season, he’s showing signs of life, and is currently tied for second on the team with seven points. He’s notched at least a point in six of the Kings’ ten games this season, and figures to be working his way into a lot more Power Play time behind Lubomir Visnovsky.

 

Why the Kings committed to as much time and money in the Cloutier deal as they did is beyond me. He’s looked like what he always was in Vancouver (and New York) so far… a mediocre goalie. The defense in front of him isn’t talented enough to keep the puck off him, and that’s going to mean trouble for Cloutier all season long. Unfortunately, the financial commitment they made means that Garon is going to have a tough time supplanting him as a true number one goalie. Garon was just fine as a starter last year, and he’s been great when given the opportunity early this season.

 

Conroy is obviously missing Pavol Demitra. He’s at his best when he has a superstar to work with (see: Iginla, Jarome) and while he’s a fine two way center, he’s simply not fantasy caliber right now. If you have him, cut bait. He’ll have a 40 point season, but that’s not what you’re looking for. Blake is big, old, and slow. He should be on the Flyers!

 

Next Five: at Minnesota, at Columbus, at Dallas, NY Rangers, Pittsburgh

 

There’s no such thing as an easy game for the Kings right now, but they figure to be playing five teams that are superior to them in all facets of the game in the next two weeks. Garon is safe to start for this stretch, though he’ll likely be riding the bench in most of them. If you have Cloutier, I strongly advise looking elsewhere. Scoring may be at a premium against Minnesota (14 GA in 8 games) and Dallas (15 GA in 9 games), so start your skaters from other teams if they have a better matchup.

 

Phoenix Coyotes

 

Hot: Opposing Goaltenders (1.9 GF/Game), Nick Boynton (47 PIMS), Derek Morris (33 PIMS)

 

Cold: Dennis Seidenberg (-10… is that possible at this point???), Jeremy Roenick (1 G, 1 A), Owen Nolan (2 G, 1 A), Curtis Joseph (2-5-0, 3.95 GAA, .873 Sv. %), Mike Morrison (0-3-0, 6.13 GAA, .790 Sv. %)

 

Injuries: Steve Reinprecht (Broken Clavacle, 7-8 Weeks), Keith Ballard (Broken Right Hand, 5 Weeks)

 

After writing the first Atlantic report, I thought to myself, “God, the Flyers are awful!” However, when you look at the Phoenix Coyotes, maybe they’re not really that bad. Since beating St. Louis last Tuesday, the ‘Yotes have scored just three goals in four games, getting spanked by the likes of the Kings, Stars, Oilers, and Flames.

 

Shane Doan, Mike Comrie, and Ladislav Nagy are still legitimate fantasy options, but I’m not sure it runs much deeper than that up front. Zbynek Michalek and Keith Ballard both have bright futures along the blue-line, but neither is there yet (and Ballard is out for a while). Jeremy Roenick and Owen Nolan both appear to have been done about three years ago.

 

If there’s a bright spot here, I think I’ve finally seen the reasoning behind carrying Cujo and Mike Morrison as the ‘Yotes two goalies, rather than carrying prospect David Leneveu on the roster. They didn’t want Leneveu’s confidence to be completely shattered by the horror show around him! Avoid Phoenix at all costs right now, though they do still have enough talent on the first line to do some damage. With a healthy Reinprecht, there may still be some hope for them to avoid being the worst team in the conference by year’s end. However, it’s going to take some time (and some… err… coaching from HOFer Wayne Gretzky).

 

Next Five: vs. Edmonton, vs. NY Rangers, at Anaheim, vs. Los Angeles, vs. Dallas

 

On the positive side, they have a (potentially) winnable game in the next five, hosting Los Angeles. The only other positive is that all five games are at home. Edmonton and the Rangers have front-line offenses, while they’re virtually guaranteed to be shut out by either the Ducks or Stars (if not both). You shouldn’t be near either goaltender right now, and you shouldn’t have anyone outside of Nagy, Doan, or Comrie in your lineup, no matter how deep your league is.



James Meyerriecks has been actively involved at FIC since its inception in 2001, and has been writing The Hook throughout the MLB season since 2002. This season, he'll be tackling a weekly hockey column, The Blue Line, as well as a semi-weekly blog called Neutral Zone Trap. He's also represented FIC in a handful of Experts Leagues over the past three seasons and is a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
Posted by James Meyerriecks: Oct 25 at 2:58 AM

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