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Though the Southeast continues to look like it shouldn’t have any real weak links, it was clear that there would likely be one team that would simply outclass everyone else within the division heading into the season. For this reason, it’s not surprising that the Carolina Hurricanes have overcome a sluggish October to move into a tie atop the division with the slumping Atlanta Thrashers. The Caps have continued to show significant improvement behind the two, and are at least making it close when they lose (league-leading six OT losses), while the Lightning and Panthers are still trying to find a little more consistency.

Atlanta Thrashers

Hot: Slava Kozlov (6 G, 7 A, 7 PPP in Last Ten), Marian Hossa (6 G, 8 A, 7 PPP in Last Ten), Ilya Kovalchuk (Point in 14 of Last 17), Steve McCarthy (1 G, 3 A in Last Three)

Cold: Kari Lehtonen (0-4-0, 5.48 GAA, .796 Sv. % in Last Five Starts), Scott Mellanby (0 G, 3 A in Last Ten), Bobby Holik (Five Game Scoreless Streak)

Injuries: Steve McCarthy (1-2 Weeks – Upper Body), Garnet Exelby (Indefinitely – Mononucleosis)

Since a red hot start, the Thrashers have been flailing lately, and are in the midst of a four-game losing streak. The defense is certainly to blame for the recent slide, as they’ve allowed four goals or more in eight of their last thirteen since establishing a solid 2.50 GAA through the season’s first ten games. Star netminder Kari Lehtonen has actually been so bad in November (1-3-0, 5.09 GAA, .830) that he’s lost the starting gig to backup Johan “Moose” Hedberg.

Despite the defensive dropoff, the top three forwards are still as brilliant as ever, and all rank in the top eleven in the league in points so far this season. Everyone already knew that Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk would be battling it out for the scoring title, but Slava Kozlov’s owners have to be pleasantly surprised with his play to this point. Kozlov, who had a strong showing with 71 points last season, certainly wasn’t waiver wire fodder to begin the year, but he wasn’t someone who we were expecting to see top a point a game. He’s capable of playing all three forward positions, and is undoubtedly benefiting from the fact that the Thrashers lack an elite true center. He’s seeing time with both Hossa and Kovalchuk at even strength, and is playing the pivot on the first unit of the Power Play, so don’t be surprised to see him keep this up all year.

Steve McCarthy’s upper-body injury was a major blow to a team in need of someone to take charge as the primary puck-moving defenseman. McCarthy took a little while to get going this season, but was showing some signs that he was ready to start hitting the scoresheet consistently and play the point on the team’s top Power Play unit. With a goal and three assists in the three games leading up to his injury, McCarthy was starting to roll, but he’s now missed the past three games with the injury.

Captain Scott Mellanby got off to an unusually hot start offensively, netting six goals and adding five assists in the first twelve games. However, he’s returned to earth, and has just three assists in nine November contests. Mellanby, more known for his play as a scrappy checking forward with some offensive skill, has struggled on both ends of the ice, and is also a -5 so far this month.

Next Five: at Washington, at Tampa Bay, vs. Florida, at NY Rangers, vs. Toronto

The Thrashers have five key conference games coming up, including three against divisional foes. On the positive side, only the Leafs could truly be considered hot right now, and only the Leafs and Rangers are in the top ten offensively. With the way that Lehtonen is playing right now (and you know that Atlanta’s going to try to get him going with at least a platoon), I’d say that you should avoid him at all costs. However, if he starts to turn things around, you’re going to want him in the lineup. Nobody on the upcoming schedule has been particularly stingy, so feel safe starting all your Atlanta skaters.

Carolina Hurricanes

Hot: Rod Brind’amour (8 G, 9 A, 7 PPP, 4 GWG in Last Ten), Ray Whitney (8 G, 8 A, +9 in Last Ten), Eric Staal (5 G, 4 A in Last Ten, Hat Trick last time out), Erik Cole (5 G, 11 A in Last Ten, 5 Points in Last Two), Justin Williams (3 G, 7 A in Last Ten)

Cold: Eric Belanger (1 G, 0 A in Last Ten), Andrew Ladd (0 G, 1 A in Last Ten)

Injuries: Cory Stillman (1-2 Months – Shoulder Surgery), Frantisek Kaberle (3-4 Months – Shoulder Surgery)

Led by captain Rod Brind’amour, the Hurricanes are rolling right now. Brind’amour, not typically known as a particularly great scorer in recent years, has amped his game up to a new level in November after the champs started out a little slow in October, leading to terrific months for both Erik Cole and Ray Whitney around him since they’ve shifted their lines around. Rod the Bod’s transition from a gritty checker/scorer to an elite front-line center has translated into a massive 26 goals in Carolina’s past six games.

Young and talented Eric Staal still hasn’t looked like he’s peaked for more than a handful of games at a time, but he’s racking up the points when he does get on the board. His three goals Saturday almost singlehandedly put down one of the league’s top defensive teams, as the Hurricanes surprisingly put up five goals on the stingy Dallas Stars. Justin Williams has also picked up his game in the last couple of weeks, and is now scoring at a point a game clip on the year.

Of course, with the top two lines rolling, it can be expected that some of the guys on the third and fourth units might not be getting too much ice-time. Eric Belanger never really warranted much fantasy consideration, but he did put forth a surprisingly strong effort with seven points in October. That hasn’t carried over into the season’s second month, as he has just one point in ten November contests. Youngster Andrew Ladd, the team’s number four overall pick in 2004, hasn’t been able to work his way into enough ice-time to make a difference, and has just three points on the year (one in November).

Cam Ward has picked it up a lot in November, going 6-2-1 so far this month, but his GAA (2.54) and Save Percentage (.903) are still nothing to write home about. He’s going to be a fine goalie and he’s going to win a ton of games this season behind a dominant offense. However, he doesn’t look like he’s ready to be anointed a legitimate fantasy number one.

Next Five: at NY Rangers, at NY Islanders, at Boston, vs. Ottawa, vs. Montreal

The ‘Canes will be happy to see that they don’t have any games with the Sabres (who have beaten them all three times they’ve played this season) coming up on the schedule, which means that all of these games should be winnable. The Rangers and Sens boast top ten offenses, while the Isles and Habs have been remarkably strong defensively so far this season. Every Carolina skater has to be started on a regular basis right now, and you can’t bench Ward when he’s winning so often. Let’s just hope that they can continue to find ways to keep the puck off of him. The home game against Ottawa could be a nice way to test his confidence, as he could face last year’s starter, Martin Gerber.

Washington Capitals

Hot: Alexander Ovechkin (7 G, 6 A in Last Ten), Dainius Zubrus (7 G, 3 A in Last Ten), Chris Clark (2 G, 5 A in Last Eight), Richard Zednik (3 G, 4 A During Four Game Point Streak)

Cold: Alexander Semin (0 G, 5 A in Last Twelve), Brian Pothier (0 G, 2 A in Last Ten),

Injuries: Alexander Semin (D2D – Shoulder), Chris Clark (D2D – Mouth)

In just a season and a couple of months, we’ve come to expect dominance out of Ovechkin, and he’s not disappointing lately. However, the other Russian Alexander (Semin), battling a shoulder injury, has struggled for the past month. Since busting out for eight goals in the Caps’ first seven games, Semin hasn’t found the net once. Perhaps a little rest for his shoulder, which he re-aggravated the other night, will do the trick. Though Ovechkin is capable of carrying the scoring load, asking him to do it all by himself would seem to be folly.

Dainius Zubrus is building on his breakout campaign last season, and is currently just under a point a game pace. He’s a capable goal-scorer, though he’s at his best when he has someone to feed the puck to. Richard Zednik, who missed five games earlier this month, could be that guy. Zednik, a speedy winger with good size and strong hands, has shown in the past that he’s a legitimate 25 goal scorer, and still has time to take his game to the next level.

After finishing with 25 and 38 points in the past two seasons, respectively, Clark has been a nice surprise for the Caps this season, with 16 points in 18 games. Throughout his career, he’s been more of a checking line winger who can score when called upon, but he’s had to take on a larger role on a Washington squad that simply isn’t very deep. The opportunity to get more ice time with the scoring units has surely been part of the reason for his improvement, but that’s not to say he shouldn’t continue to succeed at a slightly slower pace than what we’ve seen so far. Unfortunately, he’s missed the past two games after losing a couple of teeth when he was hit in the head with a puck.

Next Five: vs. Atlanta, vs. Toronto, at NY Islanders, at Tampa Bay, vs. Dallas

Expect more ups and downs. The Thrashers have been terrible lately, losing their last four, and are particularly flawed in their defensive zone. The Leafs and Islanders are two of the bigger surprise teams to this point, and are still trying to prove they’re for real. All in all, they’ll face two of the top ten in scoring (Toronto & Atlanta) and two of the top ten defensive teams (NY Islanders & Dallas). You simply can’t ever bench Ovechkin, and when you combine last season’s performance with his early-season play, I’d have to say Zubrus should always be in your lineup. The rest of the skaters are guys you play matchups with. Olaf Kolzig has been solid this season, but resting him against the Thrashers and the Leafs might not be such a bad idea.

Tampa Bay Lightning

Hot: Martin St. Louis (6 G, 8 A in Last Ten), Vincent Lecavalier (4 G, 10 A in Last Ten), Nikita Alexeev (3 G, 4 A in Last Ten), Filip Kuba (2 G, 5 A in Last Ten), Johan Holmqvist (5-1-0, 2.45 GAA, .913 Sv. % in November, Earned Platoon Job)

Cold: Ruslan Fedotenko (Six Game Scoreless Streak), Dan Boyle (1 G, 1 A in Last Ten), Ryan Craig (Four Game Scoreless Streak), Marc Denis (0-4-1, 4.40 GAA, .849 Sv. % in Last Five, Lost Number One Job)

Injuries: Tim Taylor (1-2 Weeks – Spine), Rob Dimaio (Indefinitely – Concussion)

The big three are firing on all cylinders, and have been the primary reason that the Lightning are .500 so far this season. After a drastic dropoff in 2005-06, Martin St. Louis looks like he’s adjusting to the “new” NHL, which was actually supposed to benefit smaller, quicker players like himself. While he followed his eleven game point streak up with a three game scoreless streak, he looks to be back on track a bit after scoring Tampa’s only two goals in a 7-2 loss to Buffalo Monday.

Vincent Lecavalier has been a picture of consistency for the Lightning this season, and he’s continued to roll through November with at least a point in eight of the team’s ten games thus far. Brad Richards hasn’t been quite as spectacular as we’d hoped, but he’s still been more than adequate as a second center with 17 points in 21 games.

Behind the big three, though, the picture gets a little murkier. Nikita Alexeev has stepped up his game after missing the Cup run in 2003-04 and last season when he stayed in Russia. He’s been given a chance to play alongside St. Louis and Lecavalier on the top line, and the 25-year-old is in line for a breakout season because of it.

Vaclav Prospal hasn’t been horrible by any stretch of the imagination, but his scoring struggles have to be directly affecting Richards’ production. After scoring 25 goals (and 80 points) last season, Prospal’s production on the second line is way down, as he’s found the net just three times through a quarter of the season. His ten assists aren’t that far off from where they should be, but he needs to pick up the pace with his scoring.

Filip Kuba and Paul Ranger have stepped it up a little bit along the blue line lately, which has been bad news for one of the better pure offensive fantasy defensemen in the league. Dan Boyle is losing out on some Power Play time because of the two (as well as forwards playing the point), and has been just about invisible for the past month. Kuba, who was never a real big factor on the Power Play with the Wild, just appears to be on a hot streak, while Ranger is simply doing what he’s supposed to be doing.

With Denis struggling to find anything resembling consistency, the goaltending situation has become a mess. Tampa keeps trying desperately to get Denis, who they gave up quite a bit for in the offseason, going, but he’s not doing much to help himself. He gave up 7 goals on just 29 shots Monday night as they were routed by the Sabres. On the positive side, journeyman backup Johan Holmqvist has been terrific in November, and has earned his way into at least a platoon for the time being. Denis still appears to be the better option long-term, but Holmqvist has some value for now.

Next Five: at Florida, vs. Atlanta, vs. Ottawa, vs. Washington, at Boston

For a team that’s trying to find its identity, the next five set up nicely. The Panthers have been inconsistent and the Thrashers have been terrible lately. The Sens should present a tough challenge and the Bruins have been hot lately, but the Caps would certainly appear to be very beatable in between. Shy away from Denis for the time being, but if Holmqvist is available, he should make for a nice start against the Panthers. None of the teams on the upcoming schedule are particularly stingy, so keep your skaters in the lineup.

Florida Panthers

Hot: Nathan Horton (4 G, 7 A in Last Ten), Ruslan Salei (2 G, 6 A in Last Ten),

Cold: Jozef Stumpel (0 G, 3 A in Last Ten), Mike Van Ryn (0 G, 1 A in Last Ten), Martin Gelinas (1 G, 2 A in Last Ten), Alex Auld (1-6-1, 3.80 GAA, .862 Sv. % in Last Eight)

Injuries: Todd Bertuzzi (5-7 Weeks – Back Spasms)

Scoring consistently continues to be a bit of an obstacle for the Panthers, as they’ve scored almost a third of their goals in three games where they had scoring outbursts. Remarkably, they’ve been shut out just twice this season, but have been held to one goal in five other games. In other words, their goaltenders have seen one goal or less of support in 7 of 22 games, which is making it extremely difficult for either Alex Auld or Ed Belfour to get rolling.

Olli Jokinen has remained a force in the offensive zone, though his numbers are down a touch from a breakout 2005-06 campaign. On the positive side, Nathan Horton has stepped up his game so far in November to show that Florida does have a couple of more young skill players on the rise. Horton, who is also strong in his own zone and has a bit of a mean streak, is more than worth a look if he happens to be sitting on your league’s waiver wire. Stephen Weiss, Rostislav Olesz, and Juraj Kolnik could well join Horton and Jokinen as a young core of solid young fantasy forwards in Miami.

However, the contributions from the veterans just haven’t really been there lately. Martin Gelinas wasn’t expected to carry the Panthers offensively or anything, but he has just seven points so far on the year. Jozef Stumpel had a phenomenal October, with eleven points in fourteen games. However, he hasn’t scored since October 25, and has just three assists in eleven games since his last goal. Joe Nieuwendyk missed a couple of weeks with back spasms, but has been a solid presence when healthy, with seven points in eleven games. Gary Roberts at least continues to produce for the most part, though even he hasn’t had a point in his last two.

The scoring from the blue line has been odd. Jay Bouwmeester’s off to a nice start, as expected, but two-way defenseman Mike Van Ryn just can’t seem to get his offensive game going to complement Bouwmeester. Instead, Ruslan Salei, brought in this offseason to help provide a solid defensive stalwart, has gone nuts on the offensive end of the ice, with at least a point in seven of eight games this month. Salei, who has two goals and ten assists on the year, has never finished with more than nineteen points in ten NHL seasons. In short, if you’re looking for a quick fix, go for it. If you’re looking for a long-term defenseman, expect him to cool off…… soon!

Next Five: vs. Tampa Bay, vs. Ottawa, at Atlanta, at Montreal, at Ottawa

There was a time when two games against the Sens would mean you could chalk up a couple of automatic losses, but Ottawa hasn’t been quite so dominant this season. Either way, the Panthers are still looking at a pretty tough upcoming schedule, facing three teams that are .500 or better and Ottawa (who are 9-11-1, but have outscored their opponents by ten goals) twice. All four opponents are in the top twelve in scoring, so don’t look for any miracles out of Auld or Belfour in the coming weeks. However, only the Canadiens and Sens have been above average defensive units to this point. Start your skaters with confidence, as long as their names are Bouwmeester, Jokinen, or Horton.