Feature Articles

After the past few seasons, it’s no surprise that the current leader in the East resides in the Northeast Division. What may be surprising, however, is which team that is. It was clear that the Buffalo Sabres were a team on the rise when they made a run to the seventh game of the Eastern Conference Finals last season before losing to the eventual champions in Carolina. However, could anyone have predicted that they would be as dominant as they have been so far this season? The Sabres are outscoring their opponents by 34 goals in their first 22 games, and have lost just four games (one of which was in overtime). As for the old guard? The Ottawa Senators have won three in a row to finally claw their way out of the basement….

Buffalo Sabres

Hot: Daniel Briere (7 G, 8 A in Last Ten), Thomas Vanek (8 G, 4 A in Last Ten), Maxim Afinogenov (3 G, 4 A in Four Games Since Returning from Shoulder Injury), Paul Gaustad (5 G, 3 A in Last Ten), Teppo Numminen (7 A, 5 PPP in Last Ten), Ales Kotalik (4 A in Last Two)

Cold: Dmitri Kalinin (0 G, 1 A, -5 in Last Five), Ryan Miller (Allowed Four Goals in Five of Past Six Starts [3-2-1])

Injuries: Jochen Hecht (D2D – Ear Infection), Derek Roy (1-2 Weeks – Hand), Henrik Tallinder (2 Months – Broken Arm), Tim Connelly (Indefinitely – Post-Concussion Syndrome)

Simply put, when you’ve scored seven goals in each of your last two games, you’d expect a handful of the guys up front to be on a roll. That’s certainly the case in Buffalo, as their top three scorers have been absolutely on fire, while the depth below them continues to shine as well. We already knew that Briere and Afinogenov were legitimate stars that were going to be top fantasy players, but Thomas Vanek has clearly earned that right through the season’s first couple of months as well.

Though Vanek entered his second season on a bit of a low note, scoring just twice in ten playoff games during the Sabres’ brilliant postseason run last year, there was little doubt that he could eventually become something special. The former fifth overall pick can fly, has a fantastic scorer’s mentality, can even do some of the gritty work in front of the net, and has a bevy of teammates to both work the puck to and help set him up for chances.

Vanek’s shot helped him emerge as a force on the Buffalo Power Play in the second half of last season, which meant that we could expect him to crank up the production with a full season’s worth of time on the first unit in 2006-07. His 48 points during the regular season last year were strong for a rookie, even if they weren’t good enough to put him even near the company of Alexander Ovechkin or Sidney Crosby. Still, any time you’re seeing a rookie net 25 goals, you know that he can be something special.

Unfortunately, it was clear that Vanek had some work to do defensively, as he finished with a -11 rating in his first season. Through 22 games, he’s disguised his weakness brilliantly, and is currently second in the league with a +16 rating. This is partly because the Buffalo offense (including Vanek, himself) has come together over the past season. However, he’s playing a lot more responsibly in the defensive zone as well.

With a healthy Afinogenov back, the Sabres again have a dominant 1-2-3 punch in front of the deepest four line combination in the league. Though they’re missing a few key players (Roy, Connelly, Hecht) up front due to injury, they’re still doing more than just getting by.

Next Five: vs. Montreal, at NY Rangers, vs. NY Rangers, at Washington, at Tampa Bay

You don’t play matchups with your Sabres. They’re in the lineup on a nightly basis. You do, however, play matchups against them. Benching Cristobal Huet, Henrik Lundqvist, Ollie Kolzig, and Johan Holmqvist is a pretty good idea when they’re playing the top offense in the league. Expect the roll to continue, and the Sabres goaltenders to benefit. As for Miller, who has struggled since returning from injury, he would appear to be a safe start against the Habs, Caps, and Lightning. The Rangers haven’t had any trouble finding the net lately, though, so you might consider benching Miller in at least the road contest.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Hot: Tomas Kaberle (3 G, 11 A, +5, 6 PPP in Last Ten), Bryan McCabe (4 G, 8 A, 8 PPP in Last Ten), Darcy Tucker (6 G in Last Ten, Three Game Goal-Scoring Streak, Leads League With 11 PPG), Kyle Wellwood (2 G, 7 A in Last Ten), Alexei Ponikarovsky (4 G, 6 A in Last Ten), Andrew Raycroft (Won Six of Last Seven Starts)

Cold: Pavel Kubina (0 G, 1 A in Last Seven), Michael Peca (1 G, 1 A in Last Ten), Ian White (Seven Game Scoreless Streak)

Injuries: Mats Sundin (D2D – Torn Ligament), Andy Wozniewski (3-4 Months – Shoulder Surgery)

It was clear heading into the season that two of the top ten fantasy defensemen resided in Toronto, but who knew that they’d be able to step up their game this much in Mats Sundin’s absence. Tomas Kaberle and Bryan McCabe are currently 1-2 on the Leafs in points, and are the only team that can lay the claim to having two blueliners atop their scoring column.

Of course, you would expect that this might be because the front line has struggled a bit, but that hasn’t been the case either. Darcy Tucker has been every bit as good last year, if not better to this point. However, the real differences up front have come from a couple of youngsters.

Kyle Wellwood was expected to turn into something special for the Leafs, but who knew it would be this soon. He’s always been a gifted passer, which he showcased with his 34 assists as a rookie last season. However, he’s starting to find a bit of a scorer’s touch in front of the net to go with it. Though he has just four goals, two of them have come in the past two games, and he’s inching his way closer to the net more and more each shift.

Alexei Ponikarovsky had a solid sophomore campaign in 2005-06, scoring 21 goals and adding 17 assists in 81 games. However, he never really worked his way into a top six forward role with Toronto, and didn’t find himself seeing much time on the Power Play. It seems that may be about to change. Ponikarovsky has found himself playing more and more with the second unit on the Power Play, and while Sundin’s return (expected as early as Saturday) could see him shifting back off of the PP unit, he’s shown that he can handle the responsibility.

Save Wednesday’s game against the Sabres (in which he allowed five goals [and two empty-netters] in a 7-4 loss), Andrew Raycroft continues to make John Ferguson look like a genius. He had a six-game win streak heading into the Buffalo loss, and allowed two goals or less in five of those six starts.

Next Five: at Washington, vs. Boston, vs. Boston, at Atlanta, at Montreal

The schedule somehow allows for back to back home games against the Bruins (no, that isn’t a typo), and the upcoming schedule looks favorable for the surprise team of the East so far. The Caps have very little depth, though Alexander Ovechkin is more than capable of carrying them on his back. However, while Olaf Kolzig has been very good, he should be more than beatable against the fourth best offense in the league. Despite Tim Thomas’ solid play, the Bruins’ goaltending situation is still very messy, as is the Thrashers’ goaltending tandem of Moose Hedberg and Kari Lehtonen lately. Start your skaters, and don’t have too many concerns about starting Raycroft either.

Montreal Canadiens

Hot: Andrei Markov (5 A in Last Four Games), Guillaume Latendresse (4 G, 2 A in Last Seven), Cristobal Huet (6-2-0, 1.85 GAA, .946 Sv. % in Last Ten Games)

Cold: David Aebischer (0-2-0, 6.15 GAA, .846 Sv. %, Pulled in Last Two Starts… Lost Platoon Role)

Injuries: Christopher Higgins (3-4 Weeks – Torn Ligament)

Les Habitantes are kind of like the Sabres-Lite. They don’t have the front-line scorers on the top lines that Buffalo does, but they have an incredibly deep offense with three lines capable of doing significant damage. They should be even more dangerous when Chris Higgins returns, but they’re probably going to have to wait until about mid-December for that to happen.

Andrei Markov and Sheldon Souray have provided some fantastic play from the blue line, and both find themselves in the top three in scoring on the Canadiens. While the offense draws comparison to a poor man’s Buffalo, Markov and Souray are more comparable to some defensemen on that other team ahead of Montreal in the Northeast standings right now.

Markov plays the part of a poor man’s Tomas Kaberle, as he has amazing vision on the ice, and can thread the needle with the occasional tape to tape pass. He’s a dominant passer from the point on the Power Play, but his shot leaves a little to be desired. While he’s a strong one on one defender, he’s a bit smallish, and isn’t a dominant checker. He’ll rack up the assists and the Power Play Points, while he’s kept a fine +8 rating to this point because of his good footwork and stickwork in his own zone.

Souray, on the other hand, isn’t nearly the passer that Markov is, but he has one of the three hardest slap shots from the point in the league. He’s also huge, a beast in his own zone, and will rack up the PIM to go along with it. Unfortunately, that adds up to over-aggression in his zone sometimes, as he’ll occasionally try to change the game with a big hit. Souray leads all defensemen with eight goals to this point, and more are guaranteed to be on the way. As stated above, he’ll bring plenty of PIM to go along with his strong offensive numbers, but the +/- can get a little shaky at times.

Nineteen-year-old Guillaume Latendresse is starting to make a name for himself up front in the past month. After going scoreless in eleven October games, Latendresse has now notched a point in five of his past seven games, including a four-game point streak from November 7 through November 15. A second-rounder in last year’s draft, Latendresse looks like he has a future as a borderline top six forward, but may be playing a bit over his head right now. While he’s hot, he appears to be a nice pickup for owners in search of a quick fix. However, don’t confuse that with thinking that you’re suddenly going to get more than forty points or so out of him if you keep him on the roster all year.

The goaltending situation, which was nearly a complete platoon early in the year, now seems to have been resolved. Incumbent Cristobal Huet, who had a dominant showing with a 2.20 GAA and .929 Save Percentage last season, is up to his old tricks again. Through thirteen games (eleven starts), Huet has matched his GAA from last season (2.20) and actually improved slightly on his Save Percentage (.932). Throw in the fact that David Aebischer has been pulled after allowing four goals in the first two periods of his past two starts, and it would seem that Huet shouldn’t be looking over his shoulder anytime soon.

Next Five: at Buffalo, vs. Philadelphia, vs. Florida, at Carolina, vs. Toronto

Benching Huet (or Dominik Hasek in his prime, even) against the Sabres sounds like a good idea. However, the rest of the stretch doesn’t look overbearing. The Flyers have been an improved squad in November, but they’re still a long way from being good on either end of the ice. The Panthers have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league in terms of scoring. The Hurricanes have looked up and down with their scoring, most recently scoring just one goal (combined) on a two-game trip through lower New York. The Leafs are a very good and balanced offensive team, but Huet handled them well last year, and didn’t look bad in relief against them a couple of weeks ago. The skaters should be in your lineup for all five of these games, as none of their upcoming opponents have been amazing defensively.

Ottawa Senators

Hot: Jason Spezza (4 G, 7 A, 6 PPP in Last Ten), Dany Heatley (4 G, 6 A, 5 PPP in Last Ten), Daniel Alfredsson (5 G, 7 A in Last Ten), Antoine Vermette (2 G, 3 A in Last Six), Mike Fisher (1 G, 6 A During Current Five Game Point Streak), Chris Neil (5 G, 4 A, 18 PIM, 4 PPP in Last Eight), Peter Schaefer (4 G, 9 A in Last Eight), Ray Emery (4-1-0, 2.18 GAA, .925 Sv. % in November)

Cold: Martin Gerber (1-4-1, 4.02 GAA, .862 Sv. % in November)

Injuries: None

Though the Sens have been up and down in the past ten (as a whole), they’re finally showing some signs that they’re ready to heat up. They’ve won three in a row and four out of five, including two wins over the NHL leader in points, the Buffalo Sabres. Much of it can be attributed to the fact that their top three forwards, Jason Spezza, Dany Heatley, and Daniel Alfredsson, are all starting to click, but it goes well beyond that.

What’s made Ottawa such a difficult team to stop in the past few years hasn’t just been their dominant first line. It’s been the fact that their second line will always step in and produce behind them. Over the first month of the season, Heatley and Spezza weren’t getting much support, but that seems to have changed in the past few weeks. Mike Fisher, Peter Schaefer, and Antoine Vermette have been at the center of Ottawa’s climb towards .500, combining for seven goals and thirteen assists in their last eight games.

Fisher, who has proven to be a capable third-line center for the past few seasons, seems to be taking a big step forward. He’s always been a strong two-way player, but he’s been asked to showcase his talents in the defensive zone for much of his career behind a pair of dominant scoring lines centered by Spezza and Bryan Smolinski. With Smolo gone to Chicago, someone was going to have to take the step up to the second line and produce a little more. With fifteen points through twenty-two games, Fisher seems to be adapting nicely.

Schaefer finds himself in a similar situation, though he proved he could be an adequate twenty goal scorer last season splitting time on the second line when Martin Havlat was injured. Though he took some time to adjust, Schaefer seems to have figured his new role out with the Sens in recent weeks. After going scoreless in his first ten games this season, Schaefer has gone nuts, scoring four goals and adding nine helpers in his past eight games.

Third-year winger Antoine Vermette presents a bit more upside than either Schaefer or Fisher, though he’s not outplaying either of them right now. Vermette is the youngest of the three, has strong, soft hands, and has better vision than either Fisher or Schaefer. However, in Ottawa, that has meant earning his way into a top six forward spot by playing a lot of special teams in the past couple of years. Now forced into a more prominent role, he hasn’t disappointed of late. Vermette could easily end up cracking the 65-70 point barrier as soon as this season, and should start seeing more PP time to go along with his other special teams responsibilities on the PK unit.

Chris Neil has also been red hot, but I wouldn’t expect that to continue. For a goon, Neil has shown a nice aptitude for finding the net in recent years, and is a capable thirty point guy who could finish with upwards of 175 PIM. However, seeing him even come close to continuing along his current break-neck point a game pace in the past couple of weeks is a longshot at best.

I understand the concept of the goaltending platoon. I really do. However, when one goaltender is clearly outplaying the other over a two month stretch, it’s time to go with him for a slight majority of the starts. The Sens have yet to do that, and continue to run Martin Gerber out every other night for some reason. The differences in their performance can’t be understated. Emery is currently 7-3-0 with a 2.01 GAA and .932 Save Percentage, while Gerber is 3-8-1 with a 3.45 GAA and .890 Save Percentage. Every night that Bryan Murray sends Gerber out there right now, he’s doing a disservice not only to Emery, but his entire team. Ride the hot hand!

Next Five: at Florida, at Tampa Bay, at Carolina, vs. Florida, vs. Tampa Bay

There was a time when a trip to the sunshine state was a great thing for most teams in the NHL, and it may be upon us again by the end of the season. For now, I have to say that the Lightning are still a tough defensive matchup for anyone, particularly with St. Louis, Lecavalier, and Richards firing on all cylinders. The Panthers? Not so much. Feel safe starting all of your Sens’ skaters and start Emery if it’s scheduled to be his turn in the rotation (it should be against Florida Friday).

Boston Bruins

Hot: Marc Savard (4 G, 14 A, 9 PPP in Last Ten), Glen Murray (7 G, 5 A, +5 in Last Ten), Patrice Bergeron (4 G, 8 A, 7 PPP in Last Ten), Zdeno Chara (3 G, 3 A, +4, 28 PIM, 4 PPP in Last Ten), Paul Mara (8 A, 7 PPP in Last Ten), Tim Thomas (5-1-0, 2.22 GAA, .920 Sv. % in Last Six)

Cold: None

Injuries: Alexei Zhamnov (Indefinitely – Ankle)

It seems strange to do a write-up on a last place team and not find anyone who’s particularly underachieved lately, but that’s just the case in Boston. This could be because they’ve won five of their last six games, of course, but actually lost ground to the Ottawa Senators in the past week.

The next person who tells me that Marc Savard was made by Marian Hossa and Ilya Kovalchuk is getting thrown into a penalty box with Tie Domi. Savard, away from the two talented Eastern Bloc players, may be in the midst of his best season yet. He’s currently on a 100 point pace through nineteen games, and is making everyone around him better. He leads the Bruins with twenty Assists and thirteen Power Play Points, and is currently second on the team with a +6 rating.

Who’s the primary beneficiary, you ask? Glen Murray! Murray, who never looked the same after the Bruins traded Joe Thornton in late November last season, has scored seven goals this month, four of which were assisted by Savard. Murray has used his hot November to put himself back on a point a game pace through nineteen games, and has reaped the benefits of playing with a capable two-way player at the pivot, as he leads the team with a +7 rating.

Patrice Bergeron, of course, has also been a part of the Bruins’ recent explosion onto the NHL scene, scoring four goals and setting up eight more as he’s finished with at least a point in all but one of Boston’s ten November games. Bergeron continues to ascend to new heights after his strong sophomore campaign in 2005-06, and is starting to look like he may emerge as a legitimate number one center in fantasy circles by the end of the season.

Still, while the scoring has improved, the improved defense in the past two weeks has been just as big a key to the Bruins’ surge. Not coincidentally, they seemed to get a lot of legs back along the blue line when Brad Stuart returned from injury on November 9. On a team that boasts one of the top defensemen in the league (Zdeno Chara), Stuart gives them something that they had been lacking on the defense in late October… a defenseman who is strong in his own zone and has the speed and breakout passing ability to make things happen up ice. While Chara has a tremendous shot from the point and even has pretty good vision on the ice, he’s simply incapable of trying to pinch in because he’s too slow. While Paul Mara gives the Bruins a defenseman with excellent speed and fantastic vision, he’s simply not nearly the stalwart in his own zone that Stuart can be.

Tim Thomas is rolling right now, and with Hannu Toivonen in the minors, he doesn’t have to look over his shoulders at all (Brian Finley is currently backing Thomas up). Last season, Thomas excelled when Toivonen was on the IR, but didn’t seem to thrive nearly as much with the pressure of someone capable of stealing his job behind him, so this isn’t surprising. What has been surprising is that he’s limited some pretty good offensive teams during his recent 5-1-0 stretch, beating the Senators, Maple Leafs, and Penguins.

Next Five: vs. Carolina, at Toronto, at Toronto, vs. Tampa Bay, at Carolina

We should figure out if Thomas is for real in this five game stretch. He’s giving Finley very few opportunities to steal the job, so it would be less than surprising to see him go in all five games. The ‘Canes have been up and down offensively, but are capable of giving any goaltender sunburn from lighting the lamp too often. The Maple Leafs are currently fourth in the league offensively, and love to attack for sixty minutes. The Lightning don’t only have a dominant 1-2-3 punch up front, but lit Boston up for five goals the first time they played this season… of course, Thomas took over in the third period, played twenty minutes of shutout hockey, and picked up the win as the B’s came back and beat Tampa 6-5 in that one. There’s no dominant goaltender or defense on the horizon, and the guys up front are on fire right now, so you have to start your skaters.

Happy Thanksgiving from all of us at FIC! This should be going to column form (rather than simply covering up the entire feature article portion of the site) in the coming days.