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Atlantic Report
November 26, 2006
By James Meyerriecks

The Atlantic continues to be up and down

The Atlantic continues to be up and down. Traditional power New Jersey has finally dropped out of first place after getting rocked on their three-game West Coast trip. They were replaced by their other two counterparts in the New York area. While the Rangers may have been expected to be near the top of the division, the Islanders were one of many teams that were expected to vie for the number one draft pick in the preseason. The Penguins continue to look fairly strong behind them, while the Flyers are suddenly showing some life, having won four out of seven after starting the year 3-11-2.

 

Team

Wins

Losses

OTL

Points

GF

GA

Last 10

NY Rangers

13

9

1

27

75

68

6-3-1

NY Islanders

12

7

3

27

63

58

6-3-1

New Jersey

12

9

1

25

51

58

6-4-0

Pittsburgh

10

8

4

24

67

68

3-4-3

Philadelphia

7

14

3

17

60

93

4-4-2

 

New York Rangers

 

Hot: Jaromir Jagr (7 G, 3 A, +7, 16 PIM in Last Five), Michael Nylander (1 G, 4 A in Last Three), Brendan Shanahan (7 G, 7 A, 8 PPP in Twelve November Games), Henrik Lundqvist (6-2-0, 1.85 GAA, .936 Sv. %, 1 SHO in November)

 

Cold: Petr Prucha (Seven Game Scoreless Streak), Matt Cullen (Scoreless in Six of Last Seven), Marek Malik (0 G, 1 A, 16 PIM in Twelve November Games)

 

Injuries: Jed Ortmeyer (Indefinitely – Pulmonary Embolism)

 

The top four forwards continue to roll, with Jagr, Nylander, Shanahan, and Martin Straka all averaging over a point a game thus far. However, if you can find a way to shut these four down (which Pittsburgh managed for 52 minutes Saturday, before Jagr tied the game at one and Straka won it in OT), the Rangers simply aren’t very dangerous. Their best chance to get scoring out of their number four forward is to change the line rotation so that they can alternate Straka and Shanahan on the top line.

 

Who could get the Rangers second line going? Petr Prucha. The twenty-four-year-old Czech scored thirty goals and finished with 47 points in 68 games as a rookie last season, but he’s extremely streaky. We saw this last year as well, as scored nineteen goals in twenty-six games between December and January, but didn’t score more than four times in any other month. He has the speed, the hands, and the finishing skill to become a legitimate top-line threat in this league, but he simply hasn’t showed any consistency to this point in his career.

 

The primary reason for the Rangers’ recent surge (won three in a row) has been the improved play of second-year netminder Henrik Lundqvist. After an awful October, Lundqvist has looked a lot more like the Calder candidate that he was last year in the past month. He hasn’t allowed more than three goals in any of his eight starts in November, and has had a Save Percentage of .900 or better in six of them. The Rangers have scored just 2.92 goals per game this month, but they haven’t had to score much because of their goaltending.

 

Next Five: vs. Buffalo, vs. Atlanta, at Buffalo, vs. NY Islanders, vs. Pittsburgh

 

Lundqvist may be rolling, but he’ll face the best offense in hockey twice in the next three games, and the Thrashers (sixth best, 3.32 G/G) are no slouches sandwiched in the middle. Benching him for his next few starts might not be a bad idea. You obviously start the big four skaters every time the Rangers have a game, but there’s little else to have in the lineup. Prucha remains someone to keep an eye on, but he certainly doesn’t belong in many fantasy lineups right now.

 

New York Islanders

 

Hot: Alexei Yashin (3 G, 5 A in Last Five), Jason Blake (5 G, 3 A in Last Five), Rick DiPietro (6-2-1, 1.87 GAA, .935 Sv. %, 1 SHO in November)

 

Cold: Mike York (Five Game Scoreless Streak), Trent Hunter (1 G, 0 A in Last Six)

 

Injuries: Alexei Yashin (D2D – Knee)

 

The top line continues to carry the Islanders offensively, which means that we may be about to see how they handle a little adversity. Alexei Yashin has been dominant both setting up Jason Blake and finishing himself, and has 28 points in 22 games after a pair of assists in Saturday’s 4-1 win. However, he left the game late in the game with what’s being called a bruised knee.

 

When we hear that it’s just a bruise, the expectation is that Yashin shouldn’t be out for long. What’s called a bruise, though, isn’t always just that. Blake is a fantastic finisher, and is capable of creating his own shots and creating for his linemates. However, losing his primary linemate (and the most creative offensive player on the Islanders) certainly wouldn’t bode well for him continuing his current point a game pace.

 

Behind Yashin and Blake, the offense has been pedestrian. Miroslav Satan remains a strong force, but he no longer looks like the potentially dominant winger that he was earlier in his career in Buffalo. Mike York is a legitimate 50-60 point man if he can stay healthy, but he’s ice cold right now, and hasn’t hit the scoresheet in a while. Trent Hunter has ideal finishing skills, but scored just his fourth of the year Saturday, and that was an empty-netter.

 

While the offensive defensemen aren’t creating too many chances on the Island, all of the blue-liners have played well in their own zone this season. To this point, only Tom Poti and Bruno Gervais have a negative rating among their defensive corps, and Poti has the excuse of being a Power Play specialist. While they’re not limiting the shots that DiPietro has been facing lately (he’s faced thirty or more in six of his past seven starts), they are making sure that they’re not high quality chances.

 

DiPietro looks like he’s trying to make a statement this November (trying to defend his fifteen-year deal), and has allowed two goals or less in seven of his nine starts. He’s controlling his rebounds better, helping the defensemen clear the puck, and he just seems to be in an absolute zone right now when he actually has to face a shot. Though he wasn’t a particularly strong option to start the year, he’s more than a safe play right now, and probably should be a worthy second fantasy goalie the rest of the way.

 

Next Five: at Pittsburgh, vs. Philadelphia, at Pittsburgh, at NY Rangers, vs. Ottawa

 

Particularly since the Islanders have crept into a tie for first in the division, they have four huge divisional contests coming up. The unfortunate fact, however, is that there are suddenly a lot more question marks surrounding them. DiPietro has been red hot, but he’ll face a pair of top ten offenses in the Rangers and Senators. The Penguins (13, 3.05 G/G) are no slouches either, and have the young, talented skill players to give the big (slow) Islander defense fits. With Yashin’s status unknown, the offense is going to struggle a bit more. If you’ve been riding Blake, keep him in the lineup for the first game that Yashin is out to see how he adjusts to playing without him. There’s a strong possibility for a dropoff in his play if Yashin misses significant time.

 

New Jersey Devils

 

Hot: Jamie Langenbrunner (5 G, 2 A in Last Seven)

 

Cold: Brian Gionta (2 G, 1 A in November), Paul Martin (Six Game Scoreless Streak), Brian Rafalski (Five Game Scoreless Streak), Patrik Elias (3 G, 2 A, -8 in November), Scott Gomez (0 G, 1 A, -4 in Three Games Since Returning from Groin Injury)

 

Injuries: Cam Janssen (D2D – Shoulder)

 

The Devils had shown some signs of putting a nice run together, winning six of seven from November 4 through November 18. However, they’ve since fallen into a major funk, losing the first three games on their current West Coast trip by a combined score of 9-3. The problem certainly isn’t in net, as Marty Brodeur has allowed just 24 goals in 11 games this month.

 

The offense is hurting, and they’re running out of excuses. In the beginning of November, when the offense was struggling (but they were still winning hockey games), they could blame the fact that the top unit was missing Scotty Gomez, who is really the guy that makes the unit click. With Gomez out, Brian Gionta and Patrik Elias combined for just three goals and three assists in seven games. When you put all your eggs in one basket (and this is the basket), it should be expected that you’re going to struggle… the sad thing is, this is the stretch where the Devils won six of seven.

 

Why did they win six of seven in this stretch, though? Second-year pivot Zach Parise, rookie winger Travis Zajac, and veteran winger Jamie Langenbrunner started clicking on the second line, combining for nine goals and twelve assists during the seven game stretch. Alas, with Gomez now back on the first line, they’ve disappeared in the past three games, combining for just two assists and struggling to a -9 rating.

 

If there’s a silver lining here, it’s that both Gionta and Elias managed to score in Gomez’ second game back. However, they were New Jersey’s only two goals in a 4-2 loss to the Sharks, and the rest of the team has combined for a measly one goal in the two games surrounding it. They began the trip with a 3-1 loss to the hapless Coyotes, and most recently were shut out 2-0 by the Sharks.

 

Brodeur continues to look like a picture of consistency between the pipes. While the team has lost three in a row with him as the backstop, he’s allowed just seven goals on the trip. Two of the games featured empty-netters to establish the final margin. Still, even a great effort can often be wasted.

 

Next Five: at Los Angeles, vs. Pittsburgh, at Philadelphia, vs. Montreal, vs. Philadelphia

 

The fact that they have just one game remaining on their current trip has to be the best news the Devils have received all year. More importantly, the Kings are very beatable, and haven’t been too strong offensively (21, 2.71) or defensively (26, 3.46). Even if the first line is the only one that can get anything going, they should have a good shot at stopping their slide. Pittsburgh and Montreal are both middle of the pack offensively and defensively on the year, but the Habs have been playing tighter defense lately than usual. The Flyers still find themselves at the bottom of the Eastern Conference, but they’ve won four of their past seven.

 

Pittsburgh Penguins

 

Hot: Sidney Crosby (Two Points in Each of Last Four), Evgeni Malkin (3 G, 4 A, 4 PPP During Five-Game Point Streak), Mark Recchi (5 G, 5 A in Last Eight), Marc-Andre Fleury (3-0-2, 2.14 GAA, .919 Sv. % in Last Five)

 

Cold: Nils Ekman (0 G, 2 A, -6 in Last Eight), Jordan Staal (3 G, 0 A in November)

 

Injuries: Ryan Malone (2-4 Weeks – Broken Forearm), Mark Eaton (Indefinitely – Wrist Surgery), Sidney Crosby (D2D – Groin), Eric Cairns (Indefinitely – Knee)

 

The Pens have been up and down, which is exactly what you expect from a young team. Their top two threats (Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin) have been extremely consistent, garnering at least a point in seventeen of twenty-three games that they’ve combined for in November. Mark Recchi has stepped up his play in the past ten games, and is joining the two youngsters as another legitimate scoring option that teams have to focus on nightly. Unfortunately, the team has had to play their past three games without Sid the Kid, as he’s been battling a groin injury. He’s still listed as day to day, and claims that he’s close to returning.

 

However, once you get beyond those three players, there aren’t a whole lot of options that defenses have to gameplan around. Michel Ouellet and Jordan Staal have each scored in spurts this season, but neither seems to be able to emerge into a constant threat. John LeClair has looked much better this month than he did in October, but he’s nowhere near the player that he once was. Nils Ekman will show up on the scoresheet occasionally, but he hasn’t scored in eight games since netting a hat-trick on November 8 against Tampa.

 

The contributions from the blue-line have been admirable, as both Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney find themselves in the top five on the team in scoring, and are both averaging more than 0.7 points per game. More importantly, Whitney (whose game figures to be on its way up) has played more responsibly in his own zone than he did last season, and is maintaining a solid +2 rating to this point. They’re both getting physical as well, averaging more than a PIM a game.

 

Fleury continues to look strong between the pipes, and has allowed just eleven goals over his past five games, despite losing the past two in overtime. He’s young and unpolished, so there’s still plenty of room for him to improve, but I doubt that you’ll find any Pens’ fans (or fantasy owners) complaining about his 2.76 GAA or .913 Save Percentage to this point. Expect him to continue to be a player on the rise, particularly when Crosby gets back.

 

Next Five: vs. NY Islanders, at New Jersey, vs. NY Islanders, vs. Florida, at NY Rangers

 

This is a big divisional stretch coming up for the Pens, who suddenly find themselves in an early-season dogfight for positioning. The Isles have been surprisingly strong lately, but it’s unknown how long Alexei Yashin may be out after injuring his knee Saturday night. Without Yashin, Pittsburgh should be able to hold the Islanders’ top line in check. Offensively, the Devils are a mess right now. In fact, the only game that you should even consider throwing someone other than Fleury in for your team during this stretch is the last one, against the Rangers. While the defense and goaltending figure to be strong, the goal-scoring might be a little hard to come by. The Islanders and Devils currently rank seventh and eighth respectively in terms of goals against per game. The Panthers and Rangers are both prone to defensive lapses, so you should probably start your skaters in both of those games. Crosby, Malkin, and (right now) Recchi are must-starts up front, while Whitney and Gonchar have to be in your lineup along the blue-line.

 

Philadelphia Flyers

 

Hot: Simon Gagne (6 G, 4 A, 14 PIM, 6 PPP in Last Ten), Geoff Sanderson (5 G, 4 A in Last Ten), Joni Pitkanen (8 A, 6 PPP in Last Ten), Mike Knuble (4 G, 4 A in Last Ten), Randy Robitaille (3 G, 6 A, 18 PIM, 4 PPP in Last Ten), Freddy Meyer (2 G, 2 A, 3 PPP in Last Four)

 

Cold: R.J. Umberger (Five Game Scoreless Streak), Kyle Calder (Five Game Scoreless Streak… No Goals All Season)

 

Injuries: Jeff Carter (2-3 Weeks – Fractured Tibia), Alexandre Picard (1-2 Weeks – Concussion), Denis Gauthier (2-3 Months – Shoulder Surgery)

 

Though it’s hard to say that the Flyers have been good for the past couple of weeks, they’ve definitely been considerably better. They’ve won four of their past seven, and one of the three losses was an OT loss, so they’ve gotten a point in five of seven. The offense has definitely picked up the pace a bit, with Simon Gagne consistently getting on the scoresheet and Geoff Sanderson starting to routinely join him. Mike Knuble has started to make a mark with Peter Forsberg back on the ice. Even veteran checking checking winger Randy Robitaille has started making an impact offensively as he’s been called on in bigger scoring situations.

 

Of course, on a team that’s built so much around bigger (read: slower) players up front and (primarily) along the blue line, you have to find ways to get contributions out of your only offensively-skilled defensemen, and the Flyers have of late. Though Joni Pitkanen has yet to find the net himself, he does lead the team (by a significant margin) with sixteen assists, including eight in his past ten games. Freddy Meyer, who we had tabbed a decent borderline sleeper on the blue-line before the Flyers season fell apart early, has just five points on the season, but four of them are in his past four games. He’s starting to see a lot of time on the Power Play, and could pay some immediate dividends for fantasy owners searching for help from the blue line.

 

Antero Niittymaki has looked much better between the pipes lately, and it’s shown in the team’s play. Since losing nine of his first eleven starts, Niittymaki has won three of his last five, allowing more than three goals just once during the stretch. He’s still far from a fantasy fixture, but he’s starting to look like he may be worth a look as a third goaltender to play matchups with if he’s available.

 

Next Five: vs. Nashville, at NY Islanders, vs. New Jersey, at New Jersey, vs. Washington

 

If you’re considering Niittymaki, don’t even think about starting him against Nashville on Wednesday. The Preds continue to climb amongst the NHL’s top scoring teams, and currently rank third in the league with 3.55 goals per game. The rest of the stretch sees some favorable matchups where you might consider starting him. The Islanders may be without their top scorer (and the guy who makes everyone else on that team click) on Thursday, while the Devils haven’t scored more than three goals in a single game in the past two weeks. The Caps have one dominant line, but if they can match up their guys who actually have good footwork and stickwork (read: Meyer and Pitkanen) against the Ovechkin line, they should be able to shut Washington down. Despite the recent hot streaks of a bunch of the Flyers’ forwards, you may want to consider letting them ride the pine for the middle three games, as they’ll face a couple of pretty stingy defenses.

 

 


Posted by James Meyerriecks: Nov 26 at 4:17 PM

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Questions and Comments
[1] by Jim Meyerriecks on 11/29/2006 03:15 pmreply
Update: Flyers #1 defenseman Joni Pitkanen sat out Wednesday's game with Nashville with a left hip flexor injury. There's no word on how long he'll be out.

Pitkanen has been extremely disappointing so far this season, as he's yet to find the back of the net and has a hideous -14 rating. However, he still has the skills to turn it around, and he's at least produced something offensively (16 assists, 10 PPP) to this point. With the Flyers finally appearing to play better (not necessarily good, but better) hockey in recent weeks, Pitkanen's stock figured to be on the rise.


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