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Feature Articles


Southeast Report
December 05, 2006
By James Meyerriecks

The Thrash is back

The Thrash is back! Despite the fact that the Atlanta Thrashers have led the Southeast pretty much from the get-go, they hadn’t played like a first place team for most of November. However, after three straight wins to close out the month and another to start December, they’ve re-established control of the division…. The Carolina Hurricanes are, as expected, pushing their way ahead of the pack, with wins in three of their last four…. The Lightning have been about as up and down as it’s been for the past month, and are cold right now, having lost three in a row…. Washington’s starting to pick up their play, particularly after dominating the East’s best team on Saturday. Is Alexander Ovechkin headed for a suspension, though?

 

Team

Wins

Losses

OTL

Points

GF

GA

Last 10

Atlanta

17

7

4

38

96

79

5-4-1

Carolina

15

10

3

33

93

88

6-4-0

Tampa Bay

13

12

2

28

85

87

4-5-1

Washington

11

9

6

28

79

89

4-4-2

Florida

8

15

5

21

69

96

2-7-1

 

Atlanta Thrashers

 

Hot: Marian Hossa (4 G, 4 A, +4, 3 PPP in Last Three), Slava Kozlov (5 A, +2, 3 PPP in Last Three), Scott Mellanby (1 G, 3 A, 3 PPP in Last Two), Bobby Holik (2 G, 4 A, +4 in Last Three), Greg de Vries (2 A, +6 in Last Three), Brad Larsen (2 G, 1 A During Three Game Point Streak), J.P. Vigier (1 G, 2 A During Three Game Point Streak), Kari Lehtonen (4-0-0, 1.23 GAA, .963 Sv. % in Last Four)

 

Cold: Jon Sim (Four Game Scoreless Streak, 0 G, 3 A in Last Thirteen), Niko Kapanen (0 G, 1 A in Last Six),

 

Injuries: Andy Sutton (Indefinite – Cracked Ankle Bone), Jim Slater (D2D – Foot), Garnet Exelby (Indefinite – Mononucleosis)

 

Since losing four in a row from November 10 through November 18, the Thrashers have picked up the pieces, going 5-0-1 in their last six and outscoring their opponents 20-10. While the offense has continued to be dominant, led by Marian Hossa, Slava Kozlov, and Ilya Kovalchuk, the key has been the solid defensive play and the phenomenal netminding they’ve seen out of Kari Lehtonen.

 

Lehtonen had his struggles in early November, losing three straight starts (and getting pulled in another where he didn’t factor in the decision) and eventually falling into what looked like a platoon with backup Johan Hedberg for a couple of weeks. However, it looks like it was just the calm before the storm for Lehtonen, who is showing off why he’s widely considered the best goaltending prospect in hockey. He’s allowed just five goals in his past four starts, including a pair of shutouts over the Panthers and Maple Leafs. While the defense has been strong in front of Lehtonen for much of the year, he’s had to stop over thirty shots three times in this stretch, but is proving he’s up to the task.

 

With back to back four point games to close out November, Marian Hossa briefly took over the NHL scoring lead. Hossa has been unconscious all season, scoring twenty goals and adding nineteen assists in the season’s first two months. He was particularly outstanding in November, when he finished with ten goals and twelve assists in just fourteen games, earning the NHL’s number two star for the month. As terrific as Dany Heatley has been up in Ottawa, it’s hard to say that the Thrashers didn’t win last season’s big offseason swap.

 

Slava Kozlov continues to tear it up, thanks largely in part to lining up with Hossa most of the time. Kozlov recorded four assists on November 30 (not surprisingly, one of the nights when Hossa went off and the same night that Scott Mellanby had a three-point night) in a 5-0 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, boosting his assist total to 22 in just 28 games this season. He remains a big part of the Power Play in Atlanta, and even leads all Thrashers’ forwards with a +8 rating.

 

The one thing that the Thrashers need to improve upon is the consistency of the play by anyone other than their big three. When everyone else is performing (as they are right now), the Thrashers are winning. However, when the players around Hossa, Kovalchuk, and Kozlov struggle, they’re nothing more than a .500 hockey club. While it’s great to see Bobby Holik, Scott Mellanby, and Brad Larsen finding their names on the scoresheet more often, the likelihood is that they’ll follow it up with lengthy scoreless droughts. We’re talking about three vets who haven’t exactly lit it up for the past couple of seasons.

 

Next Five: at Toronto, at Tampa Bay, vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Anaheim, vs. Washington

 

The Leafs are no slouches, though the Thrashers just walked all over them 5-0 at home last Thursday. Toronto remains a top ten scoring team, though they’ve now been outscored by their opponents. Tampa (9th) and Anaheim (3rd) also find themselves in the top ten in the league in goals per game, and Lehtonen may have to prove that he’s ready to take that next step from elite prospect to elite goaltender in the next couple of weeks. The offense should have little trouble finding the net, as they’ll square off against four of the league’s bottom ten in terms of goals against per game.

 

Carolina Hurricanes

 

Hot: Rod Brind’Amour (4 G, 8 A, +3, 5 PPP, 2 GWG in Last Ten), Erik Cole (4 G, 1 A in Last Four), Justin Williams (3 G, 2 A, 3 GWG in Last Four), Eric Staal (3 G, +6, 8 PIM in Last Four), Mike Commodore (2 A, +5 in Last Four)

 

Cold: None

 

Injuries: Corey Stillman (D2D – Shoulder Surgery), Frantisek Kaberle (2-3 Months – Shoulder Surgery)

 

The offense remains on a roll for the Hurricanes, who have scored fifteen goals in their past four games. They have extremely good balance up front, and have five players with 25 or more points so far this season. The balance should only get better up front, as they activated Corey Stillman from the IR on Monday. Stillman, who has missed the first two months recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, tied for the team lead with 55 assists last season.

 

Rod Brind’Amour continues to look rejuvenated after the Cup run last season, and is still rolling along at a point a game clip. The 36-year-old captain hasn’t scored at a point a game since 1995-96, but is certainly taking advantage of his chances this season. Though he hasn’t scored a goal in his past seven games, he’s still finding ways to get the puck to his mates, with six assists in that span.

 

Erik Cole and Eric Staal have each had a two-goal night for the Hurricanes in their past two games, and are showing that there’s still some young talent to go along with the old men (Brind’Amour, Whitney) in Carolina. Justin Williams has also stepped to the forefront, notching three goals (all game-winners) in his past four contests.

 

Mike Commodore has built on last season’s strong Carolina debut along the blue line, and currently leads the team’s defensemen with 13 points, matching his total from a season ago, and a +6 rating. To go along with his fine production from a scoring standpoint, Commodore continues to maintain a strong physical presence, and currently ranks eighth in the league with 56 PIM.

 

Cam Ward continues to have his ups and downs, but is coming off of consecutive strong efforts. Ward stopped 42 of 46 shots against the Habs and Bruins in his last two starts, and has won six of his last eight games. Though his GAA (2.93) is a little high for a fantasy goaltender and his Save Percentage (.895) remains a little weak, his thirteen wins rank third in the league.

 

Next Five: at Calgary, at Edmonton, at Vancouver, at Colorado, vs. Toronto

 

After romping through the Northeast, they’ll make a four-game trip to the Northwest, taking on three strong defensive squads to start the trip. The offense might be tested a bit against Calgary, Edmonton, and Vancouver, but they’ll have the advantage of facing two of the league’s ten worst offensive teams (Calgary [21st] and Vancouver [30th]) in those games as well. As they start to turn for home, they’ll face a couple of strong offenses in Colorado and Toronto. Start Ward with confidence, and the way the skaters are going lately, they have to be in your lineup even with a tough matchup.

 

Tampa Bay Lightning

 

Hot: Martin St. Louis (5 G, 6 A in Last Seven), Vincent Lecavalier (3 G, 1 A in Last Three), Dan Boyle (3 G, 5 A, 4 PPP in Last Six), Eric Perrin (4 G, 3 A in Last Seven)

 

Cold: Brad Richards (0 G, 1 A, -4 in Last Three), Nikita Alexeev (Five Game Scoreless Streak), Filip Kuba (Scoreless, -5 in Last Three), Ruslan Fedotenko (0 G, 1 A, -6 in Last Fourteen), Dmitry Afanosenkov (Scoreless in Last Eleven), Marc Denis (0-3-2, 4.22 GAA, .846 Sv. % in November)

 

Injuries: Rob DiMaio (Indefinite – Concussion)

 

The Lightning have been up and down lately, matching three game win streaks with three game losing streaks. Currently, they’ve lost three in a row, including an embarrassing 5-2 loss to the Sens Saturday where they fell down 4-0 in the first. While St. Louis and Lecavalier continue to be pictures of consistency, they simply aren’t having enough of the guys behind them step it up.

 

One of the few who has stepped up his game recently is journeyman Eric Perrin. The 31-year-old checking line winger has never done anything but produce at the minor league level, but had just four games of NHL experience entering the season. His size is what has kept him out for the most part. At just 5’9, 176 he’s a little small for the NHL, and doesn’t really have the speed or shiftiness that’s necessary to avoid the big hits for long. However, he’s a proven commodity at the lower levels, and this scoring touch hasn’t come out of nowhere. Perrin scored six goals in November, and has a goal in each of his past two games.

 

Dan Boyle’s dominance as an offensive defenseman has returned in the past month. After posting just one goal and one assist in his first ten November contests, Boyle went on a four-game tear that saw him rack up eight points, four of which came on the Power Play. With Paul Ranger and Filip Kuba still producing, Boyle has a little more competition to QB the Power Play than he has in the past few years, but he’s still looking like he should be a solid third or fourth fantasy defenseman the rest of the way.

 

The goaltending situation is a total mess in Tampa lately. Though Johan Holmqvist stepped up and took control of the starting gig, it’s kind of like a presidential election…. He’s the lesser of two evils. Holmqvist went 8-2-0 in November with solid, if unspectacular numbers (2.56 GAA, .907 Sv. %), but he’s been pulled in each of his past two starts. Both were 5-2 losses, and he allowed 6 goals in just 45 minutes of action in the two combined.

 

Next Five: vs. Buffalo, vs. Anaheim, vs. Atlanta, at Toronto, at Montreal

 

Get ready for some bloodbaths, and don’t even consider starting a goaltender for the ‘Ning in the next couple of weeks. Buffalo (1st), Anaheim (3rd), Atlanta (5th), and Toronto (9th) all rank in the top ten offensively so far this season, while Montreal (11th) isn’t half bad either. Start any of the big three (St. Louis, Lecavalier, and Richards) up front and Dan Boyle along the blue line, but they aren’t exactly playing soft defensive teams either. If the Lightning think they can be a playoff team this season, they’re going to have to prove it right now, because they’re facing two legitimate Cup contenders and three other probable playoff teams.

 

Washington Capitals

 

Hot: Alexander Ovechkin (4 G, 1 A in Last Five… 20 PIM in Last Game), Alexander Semin (2 G, 3 A, 10 PIM, 3 PPP in Last Six), Matt Pettinger (6 G, 4 A in November… 3 G, 3 A During Current Four Game Point Streak), Brian Pothier (2 A, +5 in Last Three), Jakub Klepis (3 A, +2, 2 PPP in Last Two)

 

Cold: None

 

Injuries: Dainius Zubrus (D2D – Flu), Richard Zednik (D2D – Leg), Jamie Heward (1 Week – Facial Laceration)

 

The Caps have come together quite a bit, winning three in a row, including a fantastic 7-4 win over the East-leading Sabres Saturday night. The game was marred by an ugly incident, however, when Caps’ star Alexander Ovechkin hit Sabres captain Daniel Briere up high a couple of seconds after Briere had dumped the puck in. Ovechkin, who had already scored in the game, received a major for boarding and a game misconduct, but it appears he’ll avoid suspension from the league office. Ovechkin has always loved to hit, but it’s rare to see dirty hits like this one from him.

 

Despite his goonish antics Saturday, Ovechkin, along with Alexander Semin, has been rolling. Each have produced at least a point in four of the last five, helping to kickstart the Caps’ win streak. Ovechkin, of course, is one of the top ten overall players in fantasy hockey, and has continued to produce like it in his second season. His seventeen goals have him ranked third in the league, while he’s tied for 21st overall with 28 total points on the season. His +/- has picked up a bit lately as the Caps are playing better as a team, and he ranks fourth among the top thirty scorers with 30 PIM.

 

Semin, this season’s breakout Cap, finally scored his first goal in over a month last week. The wait for him to find the net again wasn’t nearly as long this time, as he scored yet again the next night. Despite his goal-scoring struggles, Semin was still a useful asset in fantasy circles in November, with six assists in ten games to go along with a +1 rating. Each of his goals in late November were game-winners.

 

Matt Pettinger was a pleasant surprise in November, notching ten points in fourteen games. Pettinger, who is best suited to play on the third or fourth line as someone who can bring some energy and hard work to the club, has been spending a lot of time as a top six forward, and he’s earned it. After scoring five shorthanded goals last season, we’d gotten the idea that Pettinger was improving as a finisher, but nobody would have been ready for his production in the past week. Pettinger has six points in his last four games, including three goals in his past two games. The 26-year-old winger should be capable of pushing the fifty point mark.

 

With Dainius Zubrus out with an unspecified illness for the past week, Jakub Klepis has stepped up to play on the top line, and benefited with three assists in two games. The 22-year-old Klepis, the club’s first round pick in 2002, has always been a fantastic passer, and could stick on the first line if he can develop some chemistry with fantastic finisher Alexander Ovechkin. Klepis has already almost doubled his point total from last year (don’t get too excited… it was four) in five less games than he played all last season. If you’re looking for something to get amped up about with Klepis, six of his seven points this season have come in the past six games.

 

Next Five: vs. Ottawa, vs. Anaheim, at Philadelphia, vs. Pittsburgh, at Atlanta

 

If you own Olaf Kolzig, you own him for spot starts. That’s exactly what this upcoming stretch should be all about. He’ll make for a good start against the Flyers and a decent start against the Pens. Apart from that, let him ride the bench. The Sens and Ducks rank 2nd and 3rd respectively in goals per game, while the Thrashers are 5th. Only Ottawa and Anaheim present major challenges defensively, so feel free to get your skaters in the lineup for the next couple of weeks.

 

Florida Panthers

 

Hot: None

 

Cold: Entire Offense (1 goal in Last Four Games), Olli Jokinen (1 G, -3 in Last Four), Jay Bouwmeester (Scoreless, -5 in Last Eight)

 

Injuries: Joe Nieuwendyk (D2D – Back Spasms), Juraj Kolnik (1-2 Weeks – Shoulder), Todd Bertuzzi (2-4 Weeks – Back Spasms)

 

The Panthers have never been one of the league’s higher scoring teams, but they hit a new low in the past couple of weeks. Their 3-1 loss to the Atlanta Thrashers Saturday was actually a step in the right direction…. They scored a goal! Florida was shut out in their previous three games, two of which were 1-0 losses. The other, a 6-0 blowout loss at the hands of the Ottawa Senators, was to be expected. How are Alex Auld and Ed Belfour supposed to respond after holding their opponents almost completely in check and still losing? Belfour suffered the 1-0 loss to Atlanta to start the goalless streak, while Alex Auld actually pitched a shutout himself against the Habs, but lost in a shootout.

 

When the Panthers finally did score in their 3-1 loss to the Thrashers, it wasn’t an unexpected name that hit the scoresheet. It was star center Olli Jokinen who found the net, which only amplifies this team’s problem. While third-year center Nathan Horton has stepped up his game a bit this season, with 17 points in 28 games, the Panthers have almost nobody who can produce behind Jokinen. Only Jokinen, Horton, veteran winger Gary Roberts, and veteran stay-at-home defenseman Ruslan Salei (who oddly became a point man on the PP unit in November) are averaging more than half a point a game for the Panthers, which doesn’t bode well for this team’s future.

 

Number one defenseman Jay Bouwmeester has embodied the recent struggles of the Panthers. After posting a solid ten points and carrying a strong +6 rating through his first twenty games, Bouwmeester hasn’t found his name on the scoresheet in his last eight, and has gone -5 in that time. The 6’4, 218 Bouwmeester, who has a terrific slap shot, still hasn’t been afraid to let loose, and is averaging 2.21 shots per game in the past month. However, he’s simply not finding the net or his mates up front right now.

 

Next Five: at Pittsburgh, vs. Buffalo, at NY Islanders, at NY Rangers, vs. Anaheim

 

The only positive here is that the Pens have allowed five goals in each of their last two games, while the Sabres gave up seven Saturday night in Washington, so maybe the offense will have a shot to get going a bit this week. All five of their opponents are in the top half of the league offensively, including the league’s best (Buffalo) and third best (Anaheim) teams in that regard. Toss in the paltry support they’re seeing, and Auld and Belfour should both be on your fantasy bench (or waiver wire).

 

 

 


Posted by James Meyerriecks: Dec 5 at 9:38 AM

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Questions and Comments
[1] by Jim Meyerriecks on 12/07/2006 01:46 pmreply
A pair of five-point nights to update you on, both from the Lightning in a surprising 8-0 blowout of the Atlanta Thrashers. Vinny Lecavalier had a natural hat trick to start with, scoring the first three goals of the game. His linemate, former Hart Trophy winner Martin St. Louis, had an assist on all three. Lecavalier added a pair of assists later in the game, one of which was on St. Louis' only goal of the game. St. Louis also added an assist on Brad Richards' goal late in the second to finish with a goal and four assists on the night.

Unbelievable performance from the 'Ning, and I never saw this coming. A win... maybe. 8=0 over one of the hotter teams in the league? No way!


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