Torre's loss affects fantasy futures
October 19, 2007
By
Chuck Ludwig
First off, trust me when I say that I do realize it’s football season.
I know that the leaves are turning colors outside and snow is just around the corner in much of the country. I know that I, as a red-blooded fantasy football owner and commissioner, should be spending this time (my first writing since re-joining FantasyInfoCentral – don’t worry if you can’t remember me. I can hardly remember the last time too) telling you why you should run out and snag Byron Leftwich, Michael Bennett and Bobby Engram (all good advice, by the way). I know that we fantasy gamers should now be following the exploits of men scoring points by sixes and threes, not those that plod through a four-hour game hoping to drive in six total.
But I also know that the firing (call it what you want, Steinbrenner – it was a firing) of Joe Torre is one that could have a gigantic impact on the wheelings and dealings of gamers for months to come.
So that is how we have come to this: a football Friday night, with a full slate of games set for Sunday, where you are sitting at your computer reading about the Yankees.
But there is a definite reason for this story. As we all flip between the American League Championship Series and our college game of choice (LSU-Auburn), decision lie ahead for those of us with keeper leagues. And, as crazy as it sounds, the first sets of baseball drafts are not that far away. And Torre’s saga should play heavily into many people’s decision-making processes in the near future.
By now, you should all know the story: Torre, who won four World Series championships with the Yankees and made the playoffs each of his 12 seasons, turned down a one-year contract offer that would have cut his base pay to $5 million, a reduction of $2.5 million. That offer, along with the incentive-based option year, was insulting in his eyes.
Normally, news of this sort is not anything worth a fantasy player’s already-shrinking attention span. But in the case of the 2008 New York Yankees, it means everything. And if you own and/or have the assess the respective values of Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Andy Pettitte, Alex Rodriguez and Roger Clemens, then what happened today means everything to you fantasy team.
The aforementioned quintet are the Yanks’ big name free agents (or in Rodriguez’ case, potential free agent). None of them have seen a Yankee pinstripe when Torre wasn’t the manager. At one point, it seemed a lock that three of the five were returning, with Rodriguez and Clemens as the holdouts. Not so anymore. Although it is assumed money will still do the talking, Torre’s absence in the Yankee dugout could lead to the corresponding absence any of the five.
Let’s take a look at each, with my humble prediction as to their odds of returning:
- Mariano Rivera (2007 stats: 3 wins, 30 saves, 74 K, 3.15 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)
No matter what is said here, one thing everything can agree on is that seeing Rivera in anything but Yankee pinstipes would be stranger than anything you see in a David Byrne movie. In fact, besides Torre and Derek Jeter, most would say that the greatest postseason closer of all time is the face of Yankees. Unfortunately for fantasy owners, his numbers this year didn’t live up to his billing. One of the first closers taken in nearly every fantasy draft a year ago, Rivera’s save total was his lowest since 2002. His ERA, WHIP and BAA (.248) were his worst since his rookie season. I’m not trying to say he’s going the way of the dinosaur, but things are definitely on the downside. Despite the fact that he was one of Torre’s most-vocal supporters, I’d find it hard to imagine the “Sandman” making the leap to another squad.
Projection: A new deal with Yanks, but numbers awfully similar to 2007 than 2003-2006. Consider him a mid-round, second-tier closer.
- Jorge Posada (2007 stats: .338, 20 HR, 90 RBI, 91 R, 2 SB)
In his 13th season as a Yankee, Posada had one of his best all around seasons, setting career highs with 42 doubles and a .338 batting average, good for fourth in the American League. While the homer and RBI totals are no fluke for Posada, you should look at this as you would an NBA player in a contract year – with some skepticism. Can he reach .330 again? Not likely. 90 RBI? 91 runs scored? All depends on his situation in March. Yankees’ General Manager Brian Cashman has made it known the days of huge contracts for aging veterans is done, so you have to wonder about the 36-year-old Posada.
Projection: Elsewhere… and with a lower batting average, RBI and run totals. When drafting, look at Posada as capable of posting numbers closer to Benji Molina’s.
- Andy Pettitte (2007 stats: 15 wins, 141 K, 4.05 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)
Considered a sleeper in most leagues in February, Pettitte proved himself again to be a competent, but not spectacular starter. He posted a solid 2007 campaign overall, but his numbers in July and September were particularly disturbing (a 6.96 and a 5.86 ERA, respectively). It’s all a far cry from 2005, when he was one of baseball’s top starters with 17 wins and a 2.39 ERA combined with a 1.03 WHIP. That and the fact that the Yankees are teeming with young arms (Joba Chamberlain, Ian Kennedy, and Phillip Hughes) does not bode well for Pettitte’s second future in New York, unless he moves to the Mets.
Projection: Yanks’ youth movement pushes Pettitte out of town; maybe a return to Houston? Either way, temper your expectation, like many of you did this year.
And if we are talking about Andy Pettitte, we must be getting ready to talk about…
- Roger Clemens (2007 stats: 6 wins, 68 K, 4.18 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)
Well, that sure was an expensive freaking 6 wins, wasn’t it? I feel like no further explanation is needed here.
Projection: Hopefully retirement, not before making everyone watch him a few hundred times on every SportsCenter broadcast from now until May. Ilove watching those guys get all lathered up about him. That said, if he does return, take a late flyer on the man in case of a bounce back season.
- Alex Rodriguez (.314, 54 HR, 156 RBI, 143 R, 24 SB)
I guess it goes without saying that Rodriguez is the hands-down best player (fantasy and real life) in the game. And let’s be honest, we all know he is most likely opting out of his record contract. And we all know that the Yanks have said they will not get involved in the event that he does. Well, I’m calling the team’s bluff.
Projection: A-Rod opts out, and the Yanks pony up the requisite money to keep the AL MVP put. But even if he did left, he would still be the top player in the game and thus the top pick in all fantasy formats.
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Great read Chuck!
Regarding Torre's contract 'offer', either sack up and fire him straight up or re-up at the same rate... "motivational" incentives for one of the top managers in the game, in THE toughest market in baseball..c'mon now Hank.
Rumors to a few other places have been floating around, but, like with Milwaukee, it's all speculation at this point. I would guess he leaves.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10192007/sports/yankees/players_may_follow_joe_out_doo.htm
http://www.nypost.com/seven/10192007/sports/yankees/players_may_follow_joe_out_doo.htm
I hear Tampa needs a coach, catcher, and closer.
Oops, being delusional again. Gotta lay off the peyote...
it will be MATTINGLY or GIRARDI, my money would be on don mattingly, but you never know
NO WAY TORRE COMES BACK
sorry dude, but that is just silly.......... the yankees will pay whatever it takes to get any player that they want
the yankees are rarely, if ever, out bid on a player that they want--- I see your point, but they will always be able to compete for the playoffs because they can spend more than any other team in baseball
an unlimited payroll goes a real long way
sorry dude, but that is just silly.......... the yankees will pay whatever it takes to get any player that they want
the yankees are rarely, if ever, out bid on a player that they want--- I see your point, but they will always be able to compete for the playoffs because they can spend more than any other team in baseball
an unlimited payroll goes a real long way
There are plenty of players who don't want the limelight of NYC or the scrutiny of the NY media.Add to that a team in turmoil off the field and for some guys no amount of money would be enough to live in the bubble.
sorry dude, but that is just silly.......... the yankees will pay whatever it takes to get any player that they want
the yankees are rarely, if ever, out bid on a player that they want--- I see your point, but they will always be able to compete for the playoffs because they can spend more than any other team in baseball
an unlimited payroll goes a real long way
There are plenty of players who don't want the limelight of NYC or the scrutiny of the NY media.Add to that a team in turmoil off the field and for some guys no amount of money would be enough to live in the bubble.
those guys are in the minorit, there are plenty of GARY SHEFFIELD types that the yankees can purchase that will always be available and make the yankees competetive
now winning in the post season that is a completely different story, but a 200 million team salary will basically guarantee the yankees will be competetive and in the playoffs every year
I think they would rather wait until the new stadium to be going hogwild with the salaries.This off season won't be one filled with marquee FA's especially where needed the most, on the mound.If they do spend they are going to make a deal with the Twins to try for Santana.Welcome to a bidding war with the Mets, if that is the case.
I think they would rather wait until the new stadium to be going hogwild with the salaries.
These are the Yankees you are talking about ... NO they will not trimm their payroll.