And Then There Were Two....

The soap opera surrounding the pursuit of free agent 1b Mark Teixeira may finally be coming to a head. Though we've yet to see a resolution, we have apparently seen the list of teams that remain serious suitors for Teixeira's services for the next eight (to ten?) years trimmed to two over the past week.

It began early in the week when it was reported that the Orioles would no longer increase their offer, which was already expected to be a somewhat distant fourth. The Orioles have been down this road before, having signed star shortstop Miguel Tejada to a mega-contract, only to trade him to Houston after his fourth season with the club around this time last year. While the hometown hero factor certainly played a part in Baltimore's pursuit of Teixeira, the Orioles weren't quite going to get the discount they'd hoped for.

The story took an even stranger twist Thursday night, as the biggest spenders that have been confirmed to be involved, the Boston Red Sox, now find themselves sitting on a very thin fence. After heading down to Texas to personally try and lock a deal down, super-agent Scott Boras told the Red Sox that they were between $20 and $25 million short of the highest offer, at which point the Sox declared themselves out of the running.... though they never pulled their offer. While this would imply that they're probably out of the running, it certainly doesn't mean that they are completely out.

So, that leaves two teams remaining that are reported to be involved.... and you'd have a difficult time finding more polar opposites:

- The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim have been one of the more successful franchises of the past decade, having won four division titles and a World Series title since 2000.

- The Washington Nationals (who, like the Orioles, could boast that Teixeira would be somewhat of a hometown guy) best claims to fame since 2000 are that they've had three non-losing seasons (two of which happened when they were still in Montreal) and that they have a brand new stadium.

- The Angels have always been in a large market, though they were never really big spenders until their recent success has helped push them to increase the payroll a bit more.

- The Nationals moved from what was arguably the worst professional baseball market in MLB (I love Montreal [and I was an Expos fan], but it's a hockey town through and through... even the Alouettes [CFL] drew significantly better than the Expos) to a larger market that's seen baseball fail twice there already. The money is there now, but there are definite questions about whether the franchise knows how to spend it.

- The Angels are on the West Coast

- The Nationals are on the East Coast

- Teixeira would fit in as one of a handful of stars already on the Angels (ironically, former Expo Vladimir Guerrero, Torii Hunter, John Lackey).

- Though the Nationals certainly have a handful of guys who could develop into stars (Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes), the dropoff in talent level would seemingly be huge after Tex, who would be making nearly half of last season's entire payroll.

For a couple of different reasons, what I'm going to discuss is only the Nationals' pursuit of Teixeira, and whether they should remain in this bidding war with the Angels. For one, we've already seen the kind of impact that Teixeira could have in an Angels' uniform.... he played there for half of last season, even if the Angels had all but clinched the AL West already. I'd also like to emphasize this a bit from the viewpoint of the fan, though. While I'm not local to the Washington area, I have been an Expos/Nats fan for nearly thirty years now. In other words, while you won't get the local flavor, you will get the viewpoint from a fans' perspective.

Is this the proper way to build the Nationals franchise?

Though Stan Kasten and Ted Lerner have emphasized that they want to commit to building a winner through the farm system since taking over the club, I remain convinced that going for a big name free agent is something that's going to have to be done within the next two to three years. There are a handful of different reasons for this:

1) Much of the nucleus that the club plans to build around has already hit the majors.... at least on the offensive side. In Ryan Zimmerman, Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, and Jesus Flores, the club has four key position players under the age of 25 who figure to continue to develop towards their ceilings in the next three years. The problem, in all four cases (and many more.... among the Nats projected offensive starters last season, only Cristian Guzman avoided the disabled list), was that they missed time (or in Zimmerman's case, played hurt even when he was healthy enough to be in the lineup). Zimmerman, Milledge, and Dukes all have the potential to develop into All-Star caliber players, while Flores has the potential to develop into one of the top ten offensive catchers in the league. In short... while the offense didn't show it last year, this part of the club could certainly be ready to contend by 2010 given one more big bat.

2) The Nationals need to give the fans (this predominantly means local) some type of glimmer of hope. Much has been made about how the Nationals TV and radio numbers were by far the worst in the league (O's owner Peter Angelos is partially to thank for that.... his deal with MLB makes the Nationals extremely hard to find on either for local fans), which means that gate sales are even more important for the Nationals' franchise than you would expect with most clubs. They need to put butts in the seats, and signing an established star (not to mention a local boy) like Teixeira would go leaps and bounds towards getting fans to the games.

3) The money's finally there. Spend some of it to make yourselves better. While the Kasten/Lerner regime has nothing to do with the Montreal Expos organization apart from assuming control of the shell of the organization that Jeffrey Loria (whose reward was a chance to purchase the Marlins) and MLB itself (errr... thank you Omar Minaya and Bud Selig, I guess?)left for them, the fact remains that for decades, fans of the Expos/Nats have watched their stars grow to the point where they were ready to contribute to a contender and head elsewhere. Acquiring a player like Teixeira would show a commitment to both the fans and the players who have been a part of the organization that ownership is sick and tired of losing.

Ways that showing they're willing to spend could have an impact

1) That core of young players mentioned above (Zimmerman, Milledge, Dukes, Flores) would be more likely to consider signing a deal that would extend them beyond their arbitration years, expecting brighter days ahead.

2) Future free agents would be more likely to consider signing on with the club, based on the fact that there were other high quality, established players on the club that could help it be more competitive.

3) It would be a terrific PR move both for the reason that they'd be showing the fans that they're trying to improve the team and by bringing the local kid in.

The obvious (and overstated) concern: The AROD factor

Everywhere I turned when the Nationals' offer to Mark Teixeira was first reported, I heard people saying that it was a joke and pointing towards the Rangers signing of Alex Rodriguez... It was always the same claim... that a lower-to-mid budget team that was typically considered a poor organization hamstrung themselves for ten years because of the signing.

First off, let me mention something that a lot of people tend to forget about when the Rangers signed A-Rod.... when Texas signed Alex Rodriguez, they had won three division titles in the past five years. They still had Rafael Palmeiro and Ivan Rodriguez nearing the end of their prime seasons. Sure... they'd had Juan Gonzalez poached away just a couple of years earlier, but they appeared to be a solid offensive team that was slightly in decline. Their problem wasn't that they signed a player to a mega-deal. Their problem was that they spent said money to further emphasize their strength (offense) and failed to develop players who would help them mask their weakness (pitching) when they probably would have been better served spending that money on pitching in the first place.

If you want to make that claim, feel free. Most people could happily point you towards the fact that the Nationals had the third worst offense in baseball last season and say that they're more in need of a big bat (as I mentioned earlier, I'm not sure I would agree with that statement, given the injuries and inexperience the club suffered through last season). The Nationals have already addressed one rotation spot this offseason, adding Scott Olsen to be their new number one. He's far from an ace, but it's a start. The club also witnessed a strong effort from youngster John Lannan last season, has another quality prospect in Colin Balester penciled in for this season, and has a couple of pretty good ones we should expect to see up with the big club by 2010 in Ross Detwiler and Jordan Zimmerman. Toss in the expectation that (consensus #1 pick) Stephen Strasburg will be joining the staff within the next few years, and the foundation is there for a better than average staff. In short, the Nats need to spend money on that big bat at first base, rather than use the old status quo.

The Protection Factor

The other obvious (and, to an extent, ignorant) comment that I've heard about Teixeira is that he's going to be walked a Bondsian (hey... making new words!) amount of times should he land in Washington. There would be some lineup protection for Teixeira in the lineup, but his presence would be more important in protecting another player in the lineup, presumably Ryan Zimmerman or Lastings Milledge.

The Nationals Expected Lineup w/o Teixeira

Cristian Guzman (SS)
Lastings Milledge (CF)
Mark Teixeira (1b)
Ryan Zimmerman (3b)
Josh Willingham (LF)
Jesus Flores (C)
Elijah Dukes/Austin Kearns (RF)
Willie Harris (2b)
P

Both Milledge and Zimmerman (the two young players most likely to reach or approach their projected high ceilings) would see considerably more fastballs surrounding Teixeira in the lineup. The pressure of having to be the unquestioned star and leader of the club (at 24!) would be relieved quite a bit for Zimmerman as well.

All in all, while my assumption is that Teixeira will sign with the Angels, the fact that the Nationals are still alive in this business should give Nationals fans quite a bit of hope. Contrary to popular belief, it's a sound decision from both a business and baseball perspective. Should they lose out to the Angels, it should be expected that Jim Bowden focus his attention towards Adam Dunn. Though he's no Teixeira, he'll be had for roughly half the price, has a history with Bowden, and is a consistent 40 homer, 100 RBI OBP machine.... even if he will strike out close to 200 times a year.