Mock Stupidity (pt. 1)

It's that time of year again.

Yes, it is the time of year when your first fantasy drafts are just days away, if you haven't wrapped them up already. I can see it right in front of me - you slaving away at your computer, draft cheat sheets in hand, skimming through the FIC message boards for draft advice. Over the last 20 years, fantasy owner preparation has become as much a tradition in this country as Christmas and the Fourth of July.

I have the same pattern, except in re-beginning my writing 'career' here at FIC, one additional tasking has fallen at my feet: studying the Eric Karabells and Brandon Funstons of the world so to ensure my own, unique style.

Unfortunately, that is impossible. There is very little originality in this business, and when there is a brief flash of innovation mere moments pass before it's copied and pasted throughout the blogosphere.

So, with apologies to Karabell and his ilk (whom I will occasional mock throughout the season), I present to you all a recap/analysis of the fantasy draft the first of my leagues completed last week.

However, there is a twist here; this is not a league of experts. No, this is your average friends and family league, meaning we have owners who really know what they are doing and some that really don't. All in all, I believe it gives you a more realistic feel for the cleverness and yes, the stupidity of your normal, everyday fantasy league.

Below is the part of our draft, all 10 teams and 9 of the 17 rounds worth of it. My picks will be listed in bold, and analysis of my thoughts and other notable picks of the round should be easy for you to find (hell, it's below each round-by-round recap - you better be able to find it). Team names have been changed to protect the stupid.

Enjoy... or probably not. Oh, and if you think you see something surprising in round 1, just wait until you see the third.

Round 1

1 Adrian Peterson, RB, Min
2 Michael Turner, RB, Atl
3 Steven Jackson, RB, Stl
4 Matt Forte, RB, Chi
5 LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, SD
6 Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jac
7 Chris Johnson, RB, Tenn
8 Marion Barber, RB, Dal
9 Peyton Manning, QB, Ind
10 DeAngelo Williams, RB, Car

If this is the 'year of the first round receiver,' as many prognosticators have referred to this season, we definitely missed the memo, with nine running backs and one quarterback going in the opening round. I ended up with Forte at the fourth pick - I had him tabbed as the number two back this season, behind only mega-star Peterson. It's a safe pick... should be a lock for 1,300 yards, 50 catches and 12-15 touchdowns. Having Cutler there to stretch the field should open up even bigger running lanes for him.

However, I was awfully surprised with the Jackson, Barber and Manning picks. Barber I can subscribe to a beginner owner drafting from his favorite team, and Manning always draws the attention of the more novice owners. But Jackson? A solid first rounder a first-rounder, but in St. Louis he doesn't belong in the top two tiers of backs this season (1st: Peterson; 2nd: Forte, Tomlinson, Jones-Drew, Williams and Turner, as I see it).

There's no going wrong this season with any of top two tiers of backs this season. All should have monster seasons. Jones-Drew still scares me a little however - it's his first season as the true featured back in Jacksonville, and while his play making ability is unquestioned, you have to wonder how he will hold up with the potential of 250-plus carries (last season he posted a career high 197). Another major trend that didn't affect us: hesitation on drafting Turner at number two. Can you say 'Curse of the 370?' I can't, but you know many who can...

Round 2

1 Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Ari
2 Drew Brees, QB, NO
3 Calvin Johnson, WR, Det
4 Steve Slaton, RB, Hou
5 Tom Brady, QB, NE
6 Frank Gore, RB, SF
7 Kurt Warner, QB, Ari
8 Trent Edwards, QB, Buf
9 Darren McFadden, RB, Oak
10 Andre Johnson, WR, Hou

What you see above is no typo - for some odd reason, our draft did not start snaking until Round 4, but no one mentioned anything online. So what I supposed to do, complain? Didn't think so. I again went with old school thinking here, picking Slaton up and what should be another 1,200-plus yard season. Remember his pass-catching abilities, too. As a rookie, he logged 50 receptions, and there is no reason to think he can't do it again. The only other real consideration for me here was Andre Johnson.

The rest of the round was fairly solid. Expect to see Brees and Brady off the board by the second round of most drafts, and Calvin Johnson and Fitzgerald seem to be the consensus top-two receivers. Both will have good seasons, but I don't think great (Johnson has a rookie QB in Detroit, and most of Fitzgerald's great game occurred after Boldin was injured. Now he is back.) The aforementioned Andre Johnson went a bit low, and Warner definitely should have been available a few rounds later (try the fifth).

The big surprises here are Edwards and McFadden. Sure, Terrell Owens will help Edwards in the passing game, but please don't kill your draft by putting too much stock into that theory. At best, he is a 15-20 type of guy. At the very best... Same thoughts on McFadden. He'll be a decent No. 3 RB this year, but not in his wildest dreams can he be considered a No. 1 type this year. He's not even the clear cut No. 1 in Oakland. Just a stupid, stupid pick based on what we know now.

Round 3

1 Steelers D/ST, Pit
2 Brandon Jacobs, RB, NYG
3 Brian Westbrook, RB, Phi
4 Clinton Portis, RB, Was
5 Randy Moss, WR, NE
6 Ronnie Brown, RB, Mia
7 Wes Welker, WR, NE
8 Ryan Grant, RB, GB
9 Santonio Holmes, WR, Pit
10 Steve Smith, WR, Car

Allow me to get on my soap box for a minute now (you all look so small from up here)... Let's say it all together - NEVER DRAFT A DEFENSE EARLY!!! I flabbergasted when I saw the Steelers' D go off the board at the top of the third; I was speechless (and borderline incensed) when I saw it happen (as will you) only two round from now.

I shouldn't need to explain this, but just in case, here is the thinking: The difference in point production between the top defenses and mid-level defenses over a full season of play doesn't justify an early or even mid-round draft pick. Certainly nowhere near the difference of a top-ten back/receiver and those selected late. At this point in the draft, Pierre Thomas, Reggie Wayne, Kevin Smith and Anquan Boldin were still available, among many others who will have a greater game-to-game impact on a fantasy team than a defense when compared to who will replace them in this scenario. So please, never take a defense until the late rounds.

Other than those two picks, the third round was fairly typical... with one owner grabbing a receiver for a double-dip possibility (Moss for Brady). That is one of the game's most-proven tricks. Always try to grab a great QB-WR when possible. Welker's selection here surprised me; I had him as no earlier than a high sixth rounder. But with Brady back, who knows. Smith might be the best pick of the round, going 30th overall and getting paired with Andre Johnson. If we only had a points per reception league.

Me? I took ANOTHER back, and I took one of the more consistent in the game in Portis, who you can mark down for 1,200 yards and eight scores. That completes my backfield, with Portis joining Forte at the RB slots and Slaton as my flex. And with the way our draft is going, I still have plenty of time to fill out the rest of my lineup with quality players.

Round 4

1 Greg Jennings, WR, GB
2 Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ind
3 Reggie Wayne, WR, Ind
4 Kevin Smith, RB, Det
5 Roddy White, WR, Atl
6 Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ
7 Tony Romo, QB, Dal
8 Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB
9 Anquan Boldin, WR, Ari
10 Phillip Rivers, QB, SD

And suddenly, our draft starts snaking... I spoke with the league commissioner about this the next night when we went to Crue Fest (great show, by the way), and he has no idea why it happened this way. Thanks, four letter network...
Here we see the last of the real top-level players come off the board. ESPN's Bill Simmons said in a recent podcast that the talent drops off in the late third round this year. If not for the sheer stupidity displayed by some of our owners, we would have seen the same thing here.

As it was, I ended up with Romo with the 37th pick. That seems to be about right for most drafts I've seen. Even without TO, he is having a great pre-season, dropped Jessica Simpson and appears to be purely focused on football right now. With some consistency from his receiving corps he will end up in the Pro Bowl again. Now I just have to deal with having Romo on my squad - I am a known Cowboy hater, and that fact was not lost on the smack-talkers on our chat room. Sometimes you have to go with your head and not your heart; in fact, you should always do that in fantasy.

But I can say I have NOT seen a draft where Gonzalez has been drafted earlier then Wayne. Another round, another bad pick this owner - and he is a semi-experienced fantasy player. I guess it can happen to any of us. I can't find another bad pick this round, whether it is luck or skill. In particular, I love the White selection here. I am not a big fan of the "Matt Ryan, sophomore slump" school. In that offense, when Ryan improves, White should jump up in production as well. With that pick, Frank might have gotten the NFC's leading receiver with the 35th pick overall. Not a bad output for that spot.

Round 5

1 Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atl
2 Pierre Thomas, RB, NO
3 Dwayne Bowe, WR, KC
4 Roy E. Williams, WR, Dal
5 Patriots D/ST, NE
6 T.J. Houshmandzadeh, WR, Sea
7 Terrell Owens, WR, Buf
8 Marques Colston, WR, NO
9 Giants D/ST, NYG
10 Brandon Marshall, WR, Den

Now it's my turn to try to double dip, but looking back I am not too confident in the potential results. Sure, Williams is the top receiver in Dallas on paper, but he was horrible for the Cowboys after arriving there via trade on Oct. 14. If anyone can make me feel better about my pick here, please find me. This is definitely the pick that my draft is riding on, especially when I passed up Colston and TO for him. Both of the receivers I scorned should have fine fantasy seasons after disappointing a year ago.

This round saw two more defenses go... I refuse to go into that one again. Was stupid in the third and it's just as dumb here. Thomas is the most interesting player here... the Illinois alum is garnering some serious hype, but as one who watches Saints games (I am born and raised in South Louisiana), it seems like Mike Bell is stealing some chances with the first team offense. This could be a major steal or a mega bust. Can't decide which.

Round 6

1 Marshawn Lynch, RB, Buf
2 Torry Holt, WR, Jac
3 Carson Palmer, QB, Cin
4 Derrick Ward, RB, TB
5 Jason Witten, TE, Dal
6 Hines Ward, WR, Pit
7 Vincent Jackson, WR, SD
8 Joseph Addai, RB, Ind
9 Braylon Edwards, WR, Cle
10 Jonathan Stewart, RB, Car

Round 7

1 Antonio Bryant, WR, TB
2 DeSean Jackson, WR, Phi
3 Eddie Royal, WR, Den
4 Antonio Gates, TE, SD
5 Joey Galloway, WR, NE
6 Donovan McNabb, QB, Phi
7 Dallas Clark, TE, Ind
8 Devin Hester, WR, Chi
9 Ray Rice, RB, Bal
10 Matt Ryan, QB, Atl

I go with a pair of Chargers here, and I am still feeling shaky about one of them. Gates is a no-brainer as far as I am concerned. Even if he never comes close to matching his 2005 numbers (89 rec., 1,101 yards with 10 TDs), he is still a big enough part of that offense to warrant 800 yards and 10 scores. Plus I got him about 20 picks later than the Yahoo average, so I can't say it's a stretch to grab him here. Jackson is a little different though. Can he really average 18.6 yards a reception again?

For my money, the best pick here is McNabb... Not sure how he lasted this far. Expect big things from him and DeSean Jackson. That is a dynamic combo that provides a constant threat. McNabb should match last season's numbers (3,916 pass yards, 23 TDs) and add a few more scores in to boot. You can't ask for much more at number 66 overall.

Round 8

1 Willie Parker, RB, Pit
2 Chad Ochocinco, WR, Cin
3 Zach Miller, TE, Oak
4 Lee Evans, WR, Buf
5 Knowshon Moreno, RB, Den
6 Jeremy Shockey, TE, NO
7 Bernard Berrian, WR, Min
8 Matt Schaub, QB, Hou
9 Chris Cooley, TE, Was
10 Stephen Gostkowski, K, NE

Round 9

1 Larry Johnson, RB, KC
2 Titans D/ST, Ten
3 Owen Daniels, TE, Hou
4 Cedric Benson, RB, Cin
5 Chris Baker, TE, NE
6 Jerricho Cotchery, WR, NYJ
7 Ravens D/ST, Bal
8 Greg Olsen, TE, Chi
9 Ryan Longwell, K, Min
10 Lendale White, RB, Ten

Four of our ten teams take kickers or defenses within these 20 picks, and it's still about 50 picks too early for that crap. If you really need to know why you shouldn't take kicker this early, see my third round soap box and replace the word "defense" with "kicker" and you should get the point. But I'm not mad; if all these teams didn't take Ds and Ks so early, I might not have been able to take Benson and Berrian here. Benson is going to go overlooked during your draft. But know that he ran for 747 yards in 12 games a year ago for Cincinnati, and he looks like the starter to begin this season. A 900-yard season is not out of the question now that Palmer is back under center to put some pressure on opposing defenses. Berrian frightens many with his inconsistency, but I am banking on the Favre acquisition to really allow him to come into his own and crack the 1,000 yard mark for the first time.

Looking at everyone else, I love the Shockey pick. He is definitely not near the top of everyone's board, but his dedication to improving this off season showed in the Saints' first preseason game (3 rec., 61 yards, TD). He is on the same page as Drew Brees now, so this could be a pick with a very high upside.

Check back in a few days for Rounds 10-17, with some discussion on late round sleepers thrown in for the fun of it. Post some comments below. All chatter is encouraged. And by all means, follow me on twitter - it will give me a reason to actually have an account there. (username: chuckludwig).