Week Seven Match-ups
October 21, 2005
Quarterbacks
Bye Weeks: Jake Delhomme, Byron Leftwich, Tom Brady, Brian Griese, Chris Simms, Tim Rattay
Plus Play:
Mark Brunell, WAS – Brunell has been stunningly successful as of late (58%, 879 yards, seven TDs and an interception over the last three games), capped by a brilliant three-TD game against Kansas City. He should continue his two-game streak of 300-yard games against the Niners, who are last in passing yardage allowed (344 ypg) and have given up the second-most TDs through the air (12). Expect a big game this week.
Drew Bledsoe, DAL – Bledsoe faced a strong defensive front last week and came away with another 300-yard game, but only managed one TD. This week, he faces a Seahawk front that has made 18 sacks thus far this season (fourth in the league), but whose overall pass defense is average (201 ypg, 16th). Maybe after a feeling out a strong front last week, the Cowboys will have a better attack this week, so he should continue to be a good play.
Josh McCown, ARI – The consensus seems to be that Denny Green will come to his senses and stick with the hot hand of McCown and forgo the veteran Kurt Warner, at least until McCown fails. The Cardinals’ passing offense is second in the league in yardage (304 ypg), thanks to McCown, (61%, 928 yards, four TDs and five INT in his five games). The Titans’ pass defense is ranked 20th in the league (212 ypg) and are ranked last in TDs allowed with 13. If McCown starts, he will be a very good play this week.
Negative Play:
Daunte Culpepper, MIN -- If you own Culpepper, you know how horrible his season has been (63%, 1,256 yards, with four TDs and 12 INT). Meanwhile, the Packers have been decent against the pass (195 ypg) with nine TDs allowed. But over the last three games, they have improved (178 ypg with no TDs and three INT). The Vikings’ struggles should continue.
Kerry Collins, OAK – Collins has done well this season (53%, 1,383 yards, six TDs and just two INT), but he will be without Randy Moss this week. Teams continue run the ball against Buffalo and so will the Raiders. The Bills’ secondary has been stellar, as the squad leads the league in yardage allowed (137 ypg) and has only allowed four TDs (second-best in the NFL). Don’t expect very good numbers from Collins this week.
Trent Green, KC – The Chiefs’ 20th-ranked passing game has been rather limited (206 ypg and just four TDs thus far). Green will face the 10th-ranked pass defense for Miami (190 ypg), which has surrendered eight TDs. This stout defense will continue to stymie the Chiefs this week.
1 Donovan McNabb, PHI
2 Peyton Manning, IND
3 Brett Favre, GB
4 Mark Brunell, WAS
5 Drew Bledsoe, DAL
6 Carson Palmer, CIN
7 Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
8 Josh McCown, ARI
9 Daunte Culpepper, MIN
10 Aaron Brooks, NO
11 Jake Plummer, DEN
12 Eli Manning, NYG
13 Steve McNair, TEN
14 Michael Vick, ATL
15 Kerry Collins, OAK
16 Drew Brees, SD
17 Gus Frerotte, MIA
18 Jamie Martin, STL
19 Trent Green, KC
20 Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
21 Trent Dilfer, CLE
22 Kelly Holcomb, BUF
23 Vinny Testaverde, NYJ
24 David Carr, HOU
25 Anthony Wright, BAL
26 Joey Harrington, DET
27 Alex Smith, SF
28 Kyle Orton, CHI
Running Backs
Bye Weeks: Stephen Davis, DeShaun Foster, Fred Taylor, Greg Jones, Alvin Pearman, Corey Dillon, Patrick Pass, Cadillac Williams, Michael Pittman, Mike Alstott
Plus Play:
Steven Jackson, STL – Jackson benefited from the loss of Mike Martz and Marc Bulger, (5.2 ypc and a TD last week against the stout Indianapolis defense). This week, the Rams will face the 26th-ranked run defense of the Saints (129 ypg), which has allowed seven TDs thus far. With the increased workload, Jackson should continue to thrive.
Warrick Dunn, ATL – T.J. Duckett was injured last week, and if he is out this week, Dunn’s value will take a huge leap. Last week, Dunn gained nearly 5.0 ypc and scored once. This week, the Falcons face the Jets’ 27th-ranked run defense (130 ypg) that has allowed six TDs. Even with Duckett, Dunn and the top-ranked Falcon rushing attack should have a solid game; without him, Dunn should do very well.
Clinton Portis, WAS – While Brunell and the passing game has thrived this season, Portis has been stymied. Portis has done a decent job (4.1 ypc), but he has yet to reach the end zone. That may change, finally, this week. The Colts gained 120 yards and scored twice on the ground against the Niners last week, which boasts the 18th-ranked run defense (108 ypg) with six TDs surrendered. Despite the Redskins’ attacking the Niners’ weak pass defense, Portis should get a few moments of success.
Curtis Martin, NYJ – It was expected that Martin would tail off after his great season last year, and he got off to a slow start this season. But over the last three weeks, Martin has ran at a 4.4 ypc clip with three TDs. The injured Falcon run defense has dropped to 28th in the league (134 ypg) and allowed 211 yards and two TDs last week to the Saints. Martin should continue to roll.
Negative Play:
Domanick Davis, HOU – Well, the good news is that Davis has found the end zone twice through the air. But, despite a 4.2 ypc, Davis has yet to score on the ground. Unfortunately for him, the Texans face the overall top-ranked Colt defense. While having allowed an average of 105 ypg, the Colts have only surrendered one TD on the ground all year, so it will be another long week for Davis.
Rudi Johnson, CIN – Johnson has been decent this season, averaging 4.3 ypc with two scores this season. However, the Bengals have been using Jeremi Johnson and Chris Perry a lot in the red zone, limiting Rudi’s success. This week, the Bengals face the sixth-ranked Steeler run defense (90 ypg) that has allowed just four TDs on the ground. Sounds like a bad match-up for Rudi.
Julius Jones, DAL – Dallas should have the services of Jones back in the lineup this week, and they need him as the Cowboy running game has averaged just 3.2 ypc behind a depleted offensive line. The squad faces the 12th-ranked Seattle run defense (102 ypg), which has allowed just two rushing TDs thus far this season. Jones will pick a tough game to make his return.
Jamal Lewis, BAL – Lewis has been very unimpressive this season (3.0 ypc and two TDs total). In fact, it has been Chester Taylor that has been the impressive force in the Ravens offense the last two weeks (17 carries for 138 yards (8.1 ypc)), so they should just dump Lewis – but they won’t. This week, the Ravens face the Bears, who boast the fourth-ranked run defense (86 ypg) that has not allowed a TD on the ground this season.
1 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD
2 Edgerrin James, IND
3 Shaun Alexander, SEA
4 Willis McGahee, BUF
5 Steven Jackson, STL
6 Priest Holmes, KC
7 Lamont Jordan, OAK
8 Brian Westbrook, PHI
9 Warrick Dunn, ATL
10 Clinton Portis, WAS
11 Tiki Barber, NYG
12 Chris Brown, TEN
13 Curtis Martin, NYJ
14 Thomas Jones, CHI
15 Domanick Davis, HOU
16 Tatum Bell, DEN
17 Rudi Johnson, CIN
18 Ahman Green, GB
19 Mewelde Moore, MIN
20 Julius Jones, DAL
21 Antowain Smith, NO
22 Jamal Lewis, BAL
23 Kevin Jones, DET
24 Ronnie Brown, MIA
25 Reuben Droughns, CLE
26 Willie Parker, PIT
27 Mike Anderson, DEN
28 Kevan Barlow, SF
29 Jerome Bettis, PIT
30 Marcel Shipp, ARI
31 Ricky Williams, MIA
32 Larry Johnson, KC
33 Chester Taylor, BAL
34 Chris Perry, CIN
35 Dominic Rhodes, IND
36 Aaron Stecker, NO
37 Tony Fisher, GB
38 Marshall Faulk, STL
39 Shawn Bryson, DET
40 T.J. Duckett, ATL
41 Frank Gore, SF
42 J.J. Arrington, ARI
43 Brandon Jacobs, NYG
44 Lamar Gordon, PHI
45 Zack Crockett, OAK
46 Ladell Betts, WAS
47 Artose Pinner, DET
48 Jarrett Payton, TEN
49 Jerald Sowell, NYJ
50 Cedric Benson, CHI
Wide Receivers
Bye Weeks: Steve Smith, Ricky Proehl, Keary Colbert, Rod Gardner, Jimmy Smith, Reggie Williams, Ernest Wilford, Matt Jones, Deion Branch, David Givens, Troy Brown, Tim Dwight, Joey Galloway, Michael Clayton, Ike Hilliard
Plus Play:
Santana Moss, WAS – Brunell can owe a significant amount of his success to his connection with Moss, who has shocked the league with his success this season. Brunell has targeted Moss 55 times already this season, resulting in 33 receptions for 631 yards and four TDs – averaging 19.1 yards per reception. Moss gained 173 yards and scored twice against the Chiefs. As poor as the Niners are, he may approach those numbers again this week.
Rod Smith, DEN – Smith still has it, as he has shown the last three weeks (12 receptions for 179 yards and a TD). Jake Plummer has been targeting him on a consistent basis and that should be continue this week against a Giant defense that is ranked 31st in the league against the pass (316 ypg) and has surrendered eight TDs.
Keyshawn Johnson, DAL – With the resurgence of Bledsoe and Terry Glenn, Johnson has been a quiet beneficiary of their success as well. He has been the possession guy (12.9 ypr), while Glenn has been the deep threat (20.1 ypr). Johnson has had 27 receptions for 348 yards and three TDs and is coming off an eight-reception, 120-yard game last week. With the spotty Seahawk secondary this week, it’s time to give Johnson some love.
Eric Moulds, BUF – Moulds has been the recipient of the move of Kelly Holcomb to QB, as he has been targeted 18 times over the last two weeks, and over the last three games, he’s had 16 receptions for 136 yards and two TDs. This week, the Bills face the 28th-ranked team against the pass (249 ypg) that has allowed seven TDs thus far. Expect the connection to continue.
Negative Play:
Robert Ferguson, GB – The Packer passing game has done well in their last three games (518 yards and seven TDs), but, as usual, the receptions are being spread out amongst many receivers. During those three games, Ferguson has managed six receptions for 108 yards and a TD – nice, but not spectacular. The Pack goes against the eighth-ranked pass defense (180 ypg) in the Metrodome, where Favre has struggled. They have given up nine TDs, however, so Favre should have a modest game, but it’s hard to peg Ferguson as having one as well.
Kevin Curtis, STL – Curtis has benefited from the injuries to Torry Hold and Isaac Bruce, but the Rams’ passing game took a big hit when it lost Marc Bulger last week. Jamie Martin has been spotty in his success in his career (64%, 2,463 yards, 15 TDs, 15 INT), and will now line up behind an offensive line that has allowed the third-most sacks in the league (21). The Rams face the Saints, which have the fifth-ranked pass defense (173 ypg) and are at least average in garnering sacks (12, 15th in the league). The Rams will focus more on the run, and that will hurt Curtis’ numbers.
Eddie Kennison, KC -- Kennison has been Green’s top target (34 targets), and has responded with 23 receptions and 349 yards, but just one TD. With the Chiefs going against the Dolphins’ 10th-ranked pass defense, the struggles will continue.
Travis Taylor, MIN – Taylor must be frustrated, coming from the pitiful Ravens’ passing game to the high-flying Vikings’ attack, which was without Randy Moss. Then, Nate Burleson went down with an injury, making Taylor No. 1. But it hasn’t worked out for him – while being targeted a team-high 34 times, he has only managed 20 receptions for 252 yards and two TDs. This week, the Vikings face the 11th-ranked Packer pass defense, and with Culpepper struggling, the frustration should continue.
1 Terrell Owens, PHI
2 Chad Johnson, CIN
3 Santana Moss, WAS
4 Torry Holt, STL
5 Marvin Harrison, IND
6 Plaxico Burress, NYG
7 Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
8 Anquan Boldin, ARI
9 Donald Driver, GB
10 Rod Smith, DEN
11 Reggie Wayne, IND
12 Terry Glenn, DAL
13 Chris Chambers, MIA
14 Keyshawn Johnson, DAL
15 Joe Jurevicius, SEA
16 Eric Moulds, BUF
17 Derrick Mason, BAL
18 Donte Stallworth, NO
19 Hines Ward, PIT
20 Keenan McCardell, SD
21 Jerry Porter, OAK
22 Robert Ferguson, GB
23 Kevin Curtis, STL
24 Antonio Bryant, CLE
25 Eddie Kennison, KC
26 Laveranues Coles, NYJ
27 Ashley Lelie, DEN
28 Brandon Jones, TEN
29 Muhsin Muhammad, CHI
30 Joe Horn, NO
31 Brandon Lloyd, SF
32 Antwaan Randle El, PIT
33 Lee Evans, BUF
34 Nate Burleson, MIN
35 Doug Gabriel, OAK
36 Jabar Gaffney, HOU
37 Travis Taylor, MIN
38 Chris Henry, CIN
39 Greg Lewis, PHI
40 Az-Zahir Hakim, NO
41 Justin McCareins, NYJ
42 Dennis Northcutt, CLE
43 Brandon Stokley, IND
44 Michael Jenkins, ATL
45 Troy Williamson, MIN
46 Corey Bradford, HOU
47 Peter Warrick, SEA
48 Marty Booker, MIA
49 Kevin Johnson, DET
50 David Patten, WAS
Tight Ends
Bye Weeks: Kris Mangum, George Wrighster, Kyle Brady, Daniel Graham, Ben Watson, Alex Smith
1 Antonio Gates, SD
2 Jeremy Shockey, NYG
3 Randy McMichael, MIA
4 Jason Witten, DAL
5 L.J. Smith, PHI
6 Alge Crumpler, ATL
7 Chris Cooley, WAS
8 Todd Heap, BAL
9 Tony Gonzalez, KC
10 Jerramy Stevens, SEA
11 Ben Troupe, TEN
12 Jermaine Wiggins, MIN
13 Marcus Pollard, DET
14 Dallas Clark, IND
15 Heath Miller, PIT
16 Erron Kinney, TEN
17 Courtney Anderson, OAK
18 Ernie Conwell, NO
19 Jeb Putzier, DEN
20 Desmond Clark, CHI
21 Aaron Shea, CLE
22 David Martin, GB
23 Steve Heiden, CLE
24 Bubba Franks, GB
25 Chris Baker, NYJ
26 Doug Jolley, NYJ
27 Stephen Alexander, DEN
28 Mark Campbell, BUF
29 Matt Schobel, CIN
30 Teyo Johnson, ARI
Kickers
Bye Weeks: Adam Vinatieri, John Kasay, Matt Bryant, Josh Scobee
1 Neil Rackers, ARI
2 Jeff Wilkins, STL
3 Mike Vanderjagt, IND
4 Shayne Graham, CIN
5 Rob Bironas, TEN
6 Jason Elam, DEN
7 Jay Feely, NYG
8 Josh Brown, SEA
9 John Carney, NO
10 Ryan Longwell, GB
11 Jeff Reed, PIT
12 Rian Lindell, BUF
13 Jose Cortez, DAL
14 Nate Kaeding, SD
15 Todd Peterson, ATL
16 Sebastian Janikowski, OAK
17 Matt Stover, BAL
18 Todd France, PHI
19 Paul Edinger, MIN
20 Lawrence Tynes, KC
21 Phil Dawson, CLE
22 Nick Novak, WAS
23 Jason Hanson, DET
24 Olindo Mare, MIA
25 Mike Nugent, NYJ
26 Kris Brown, HOU
27 Robbie Gould, CHI
28 Joe Nedney, SF
Team Defenses
Bye Weeks: Tampa Bay, Carolina, Jacksonville, New England
1 Indianapolis Colts
2 Chicago Bears
3 Baltimore Ravens
4 Atlanta Falcons
5 Washington Redskins
6 Cincinnati Bengals
7 Buffalo Bills
8 Philadelphia Eagles
9 Detroit Lions
10 Cleveland Browns
11 Pittsburgh Steelers
12 Green Bay Packers
13 Denver Broncos
14 Kansas City Chiefs
15 Miami Dolphins
16 St. Louis Rams
17 Tennessee Titans
18 Dallas Cowboys
19 New York Giants
20 Oakland Raiders
21 Arizona Cardinals
22 Seattle Seahawks
23 New York Jets
24 San Diego Chargers
25 New Orleans Saints
26 San Francisco 49ers
27 Minnesota Vikings
28 Houston Texans
Defensive Backs
1 Mike Brown, CHI
2 Troy Polamalu, PIT
3 Roy Williams, DAL
4 Gibril Wilson, NYG
5 Michael Lewis, PHI
6 Adam Archuleta, STL
7 Adrian Wilson, ARI
8 Tony Parrish, SF
9 Bob Sanders, IND
10 Sammy Knight, KC
11 Derrick Gibson, OAK
12 Pacman Jones, TEN
13 Terrance Kiel, SD
14 Darrent Williams, DEN
15 Nate Clements, BUF
16 Anthony Henry, DAL
17 Darren Sharper, MIN
18 Champ Bailey, DEN
19 DeAngelo Hall, ATL
20 Michael Boulware, SEA
21 Lamont Thompson, TEN
22 Greg Wesley, KC
23 Brian Dawkins, PHI
24 Chris Crocker, CLE
25 Kerry Rhodes, NYJ
26 Ike Taylor, PIT
27 Marcus Trufant, SEA
28 Sean Taylor, WAS
29 Bryan Scott, ATL
30 Travis Fisher, STL
31 Tory James, CIN
32 Tebucky Jones, MIA
33 Will Demps, BAL
34 Chris McAlister, BAL
35 Dre' Bly, DET
36 Charles Tillman, CHI
37 Fred Smoot, MIN
38 Lawyer Milloy, BUF
39 Kelly Herndon, SEA
40 Kenoy Kennedy, DET
41 Deltha O'Neal, CIN
42 Gary Baxter, CLE
43 Lance Schulters, TEN
44 Terrence McGee, BUF
45 Marcus Coleman, HOU
46 Terrence Holt, DET
47 Robert Griffith, ARI
48 Terence Newman, DAL
49 Corey Chavous, MIN
50 Erik Coleman, NYJ
Linebackers
1 Zach Thomas, MIA
2 Brian Urlacher, CHI
3 Jonathan Vilma, NYJ
4 Donnie Edwards, SD
5 Ray Lewis, BAL
6 Nick Barnett, GB
7 Jeremiah Trotter, PHI
8 Keith Brooking, ATL
9 Derrick Johnson, KC
10 Keith Bulluck, TEN
11 Andra Davis, CLE
12 Odell Thurman, CIN
13 London Fletcher, BUF
14 Antonio Pierce, NYG
15 Morlon Greenwood, HOU
16 James Farrior, PIT
17 Cato June, IND
18 Demorrio Williams, ATL
19 Lofa Tatupu, SEA
20 Kirk Morrison, IND
21 Danny Clark, OAK
22 Sam Cowart, MIN
23 Derek Smith, SF
24 Ian Gold, DEN
25 Karlos Dansby, ARI
26 Pisa Tinoisamoa, STL
27 Al Wilson, DEN
28 Boss Bailey, DET
29 Marcus Washington, WAS
30 Dat Nguyen, DAL
31 Joey Porter, PIT
32 Kawika Mitchell, KC
33 Lance Briggs, CHI
34 Ben Taylor, CLE
35 Demarcus Ware, DAL
36 Lemar Marshall, WAS
37 Angelo Crowell, BUF
38 Channing Crowder, MIA
39 Gary Brackett, IND
40 Carlos Emmons, NYG
41 Courtney Watson, NO
42 Julian Peterson, SF
43 Adalius Thomas, BAL
44 Eric Barton, NYJ
45 Jamie Sharper, SEA
46 Brad Kassell, TEN
47 David Pollack, CIN
48 E.J. Henderson, MIN
49 Earl Holmes, DET
50 Teddy Lehman, Det
Defensive Linemen
1 Dwight Freeney, IND
2 Kyle Vanden Bosch, TEN
3 Robert Mathis, IND
4 Michael Strahan, NYG
5 Rod Coleman, ATL
6 Jared Allen, KC
7 John Abraham, NYJ
8 Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, GB
9 Justin Smith, CIN
10 Patrick Kerney, ATL
11 Cornelius Griffin, WAS
12 Bert Berry, ARI
13 Terrell Suggs, BAL
14 Will Smith, NO
15 Aaron Schobel, BUF
16 Derrick Burgess, OAK
17 Orpheus Roye, CLE
18 Leonard Little, STL
19 Aaron Kampman, GB
20 Charles Grant, NO
21 Jason Taylor, MIA
22 Shaun Ellis, NYJ
23 Anthony Hargrove, STL
24 Darren Howard, NO
25 Adewale Ogunleye, CHI
26 Bryant Young, SF
27 Greg Ellis, DAL
28 Osi Umenyiora, NYG
29 Jevon Kearse, PHI
30 James Hall, DET
31 Grant Wistrom, SEA
32 John Thornton, CIN
33 Antwan Odom, TEN
34 Kevin Carter, MIA
35 Chike Okeafor, ARI
36 Alex Brown, CHI
37 Pat Williams, MIN
38 Raheem Brock, IND
39 Erasmus James, MIN
40 Mike Patterson, PHI
41 Kendrick Clancy, NYG
42 Kevin Williams, MIN
43 Ryan Pickett, STL
44 Brady Smith, ATL
45 Shaun Rogers, DET
46 Bryce Fisher, SEA
47 Courtney Brown, DEN
48 Darwin Walker, PHI
49 Phillip Daniels, WAS
50 Eric Hicks, KC
Fantasy Football 
And BTW, I'm really disappointed that "The Man" is not a Plus Play against the Vi-Queens.......PLEASE!
If you read what I said ..... :
If McCown starts, he will be a very good play this week.
..... I covered that.
I can explain all weekend, every weekend why someone's favorite player isn't where they think they should be.
However, I don't remember if I explained what is meant by a plus/negative play, so I will do that instead.
Each week, I go through each player and rank them based on what I think they will do for the rest of the season, so that is always a fluid situation.
Then I rank them based on what I think they will do the current week.
It's not a hard and fast rule, but 90% of the time, when a guy's current-week ranking is five spots or more higher than his ranking for the rest of the season, he's a plus play. When he's five spots or more less than the other ranking, his a negative play. Sometimes it's 3-4 when it's a significant, above-normal (or below-normal) performance is expected.
Therefore, Peyton will never be a PP in the forseeable future. LT, TO, Gates won't be because these guys (and several top guys at their position) will never perform much higher than their already-lofty ranking would indicate. Smith and Orton and most second-string RB and WR won't be NP because they are pretty low to begin with.
It would be pretty boring (but a lot easier on me) if I just marked the top five guys as PP and the bottom five guys as NP. But I'm trying to help the guys that need a bye-week or injury fill-in, or the guys whose back-up might be a better play this week than their normal starter.
Okay. Regarding Favre -- I have him, as of now, the third-best QB the rest of the way (that will probably change one way or the other next week -- who knows?). I have him ranked third for this week, so there's no PP room for him -- he'll have the great game expected of him.
But regarding McCown, that's a big "IF" to depend on when there are guys out there that don't know what their doing and look at these matchups that you post up for advise. It's no big deal for me, but it could be for someone else.
Law: 2 TCKL, 1 INT, 2 PD, and 1 FUMREC...top 50, right?
Bravo.