Quarterbacks
August 18, 2006
Prior to the weekly rankings, here is the first in a series of pre-season rankings for the 2006 season. The schedule for the remaining positions would be:
Quarterbacks -- Friday, Aug. 18
Running Backs -- Saturday, Aug. 19
Wide Receivers -- Monday, Aug. 21
Tight Ends -- Tuesday, Aug. 22
Kickers and Defenses -- Wednesday, Aug. 23
Individual Defensive Players -- Thursday, Aug. 24
Red = Sleeper
1. Peyton Manning, IND – Even with a “poor” first half of 2005, and such a “drop in performance” from his 2004 season, Peyton is still on the top rung of the ladder. There are miniscule chinks in the armor, such as the poor performance of the OL in the playoffs, and the loss of Edgerrin James – not just for his rushing and receiving, but for his blocking capability as well. But, end the end, Peyton will exceed 4,000 yards passing, 30 TDs and will lead his squad (and, probably, yours) back into the playoffs.
2. Tom Brady, NE – Brady is just as intelligent and masterful as Peyton is, but his team’s offensive philosophy is vastly different. Brady took advantage of injuries on both sides of the ball to top 4,000 yards last season. He threw 60 more passes in 2005 than in 2004, and completed almost 45 more. That’s what made up the difference between 2003-4 and 2005 yardage-wise. With an improved running game and uncertain WR situation, don’t pick Brady too high overall.
3. Matt Hasselbeck, SEA – Hasselbeck has raised his game with strong seasons the last three years, capping the run with a Super Bowl appearance last year. What was remarkable was that he performed last season after having lost his two top receivers to injury – and he responded with a career low nine INT. He has a great supporting cast around him, having lost just one player from last season. It’s hard to imagine him surpassing (or even equaling) last season’s numbers, especially because the Seahawks played one of the weakest schedules in the league. Someone will want the SB QB too early – don’t be that guy.
4. Carson Palmer, CIN – This position is not based on Palmer being able to cruise through the rest of the pre-season and start the regular season at the top of his game. I’ve actually dropped him a couple of spots, so for the gambler, he could produce top-3 quality production. I just think it’s highly unlikely that he will be in top form for 16 games this season. If you draft Palmer, be ready to draft your backup soon after, because your backup may be the better performer for the opening weeks. But you can’t totally ignore Palmer – barring additional injury, he should be at top form in the second half, so he would make a great trade target with a frustrated owner.
UPDATE -- Bumped him up a couple of spots out of courtesy for his comeback on Monday night. I wouldn't look down on the fanboys that will pick him No. 2 or 3. He looked that good.
5. Donovan McNabb, PHI – FREE AT LAST!!! Do you realize that McNabb was on pace for nearly 4,500 yards passing and 30 TDs last year? True, he will be without the guy with the big mouth (and big talent), but we know how well McNabb can play with below average talent. His mobility is down, but he is in his prime in an offense that he has mastered. Numbers like 3,500 yards/25 TDs is quite possible this season.
6. Eli Manning, NYG – Fantasy playoff-performance aside, Eli made great strides last season. He finished fifth in yardage and fourth in TDs last season. But he also had the third-worst completion % and second worst INT total in the league. He’s still showing his age, so he needs to do a better job of not forcing the ball while under pressure. He was at his best in the red zone (15-4 TD/INT in the red zone) and in the fourth quarter. Now if he can continue to improve on the other facets of his game, a top-5 finish is possible for Eli.
7. Marc Bulger, STL – While Eli Manning is very inconsistent, Bulger is calm and consistent at the Rams’ helm. He has a 65% career completion percentage, and has a strong TD/INT ratio. However, under Mike Martz, he didn’t put up big TD numbers. That may change under Scott Linehan, providing Bulger stays healthy. He hasn’t been able to complete a 16-game schedule as a starter. But, with Linehan’s wide-open, no-huddle style, Bulger will put up the numbers when he’s in there.
8. Jake Delhomme, CAR – One of the quietest, least-known starting QBs is the Panthers’ Delhomme. He’s averaged 3,500 yards and 24 TDs over the last three seasons, and last season he did it with just one functioning WR. This year, the team has added Keyshawn Johnson, who not only is a steady receiver, but a great downfield blocker. As long as Johnson can adapt, expect Delhomme to break into the top-10 this season.
9. Drew Bledsoe, DAL – Bledsoe had a stunning season last year – he had career bests in completion % and TD passes. And NOW he has Terrell Owens to throw to, giving Bledsoe a solid crew. His immobility is well-known, and resulted in 49 sacks last year, which wore him down. Dallas has attempted to improve its offensive line in the off-season. If it works, Bledsoe could climb high into the top-10, and you probably could get him later than expected in the draft.
10. Daunte Culpepper, MIA – Like Palmer, this is a placement based on a good, early return for Culpepper. If you draft him as your No. 1 QB, IMMEDIATELY draft your backup. Conversely, if you have a dependable QB, Culpepper could provide big second-half dividends as a backup. He has a new lease on life in Miami, with a better balance of weapons than he did in Minnesota. Personally, I’m not touching him this year. But there are bigger gamblers than me out there, and this pick could have a big pay-off if handled properly.
UPDATE -- Bumped him up three spots from the solid preseason he has had. He has taken some hits and has moved around well in the pocket. I still have reservations, though.
11. Trent Green, KC – Trent Green can’t do this, he can’t do that – I’m tired of saying it. The dude rocks in KC. He’s thrown for an average of 4,000 yards and 22 TD the last five seasons. No one uses his RBs as receivers better, and he’s got Tony G down the middle. The loss of Dick Vermeil and Al Saunders is a concern. But chalk up another solid season for this vet.
12. Jake Plummer, DEN – Plummer had his best season of his career last year, having cut his INT from 20 to seven. He’s at his best while rolling out and can make up some yardage on the ground. Denver added plenty of offensive weapons during the off-season – the biggest was Javon Walker. It would be difficult to expect him to improve as drastically this season as he did last season, but there is still room for improvement and with Jay Cutler knocking at the door, that push should allow Plummer to emerge as a fairly dependable starting fantasy QB this season.
13. Michael Vick, ATL – While I’m tired of pointing out the negatives of Trent Green, I’m not tired of pointing out Vick’s. He’s inconsistent, has a poor completion %, makes poor decisions, is often injured, has young, ineffective WRs and is just. Not. A. Top. Fantasy. QB. Period. Let someone else make him their starting fantasy QB.
14. Kurt Warner, ARI – This pick is fun and tough. When Warner is on the field, with his WRs and NOW with Edgerrin James, Warner is a top-5 quality QB. In 10 games last season, Warner had five 300-yard games. But, yes, he Warner WILL get hurt, so if you match him up with a solid top-20 QB, you will have a great bargain duo this season.
15. Brett Favre, GB – Who knows exactly how hard Favre’s decision actually was, but it looked like it was a painful one. It was almost as painful as it was to watch the future HOFer’s performance last year. The Packers were decimated by injuries at RB, WR and TE. Paired with a poor defense, Favre had to throw the ball more often than what would have been ideal. The Pack has tried to improve his OL and the skill players around him. Whether that will be enough for him to return to form (a 30/17 TD/INT ratio from 2001-04, compared to last year’s 20/29) will remain to be seen. A sharp improvement over last season would be quite surprising.
16. Drew Brees, NO – Brees is yet another QB coming off a severe injury, and, like Culpepper, he gets to make his return to the field in a new uniform. He lost Antonio Gates, but he gains a nice crew of WRs, a pair of top RBs and an up-and-coming TE. But how will the shoulder hold up? That’s unknown, but if everything works out, he could top his San Diego numbers. That’s a big if right now, so he’s conservatively placed.
17. Aaron Brooks, OAK – There are just too many positives for the QBs ahead of Brooks that I just can’t put him any higher right now. But, to be honest, I acknowledge that this is a situation that could turn Brooks into a near-top-10 QB. The Raiders’ weapons turned Kerry Collins into a top-10 QB, so they could do the same for Brooks. I just don’t have any faith in Brooks’ ability to fit in at Oakland. He floundered for a poor franchise without a capable backup in New Orleans for years. It’s a whole new ballgame in Oakland. They expect to win and allow no margin for error. Brooks might not make it through the season as the starter. Remember the name Andrew Walter. But, I could be wrong here. Brooks does have the talent to duplicate Collins’ numbers.
18. Jon Kitna, DET – A lot of people are overlooking Kitna this season. He is all but guaranteed the starting nod. We’ve seen what Mike Martz does for a QB (no matter what you think of him personally). He took over a Ram offense with hidden talent and turned it into a potent machine. We’ve seen what Kitna can do at the helm of a squad – he was a Pro-Bowl QB the season before Carson Palmer took over for Cincy. He can put up top-10 numbers. He seems capable of doing so for Detroit. Kitna is better than his Lion predecessors and he should able to bring that Lions’ talent out of the doldrums. He may be the most undervalued player in the entire draft.
19. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT – Now that Tom Brady has moved into top-10 fantasy QB territory, the label of this generation’s Troy Aikman has been passed onto Big Ben, now that he has a SB ring. Roethlisberger is still developing, but in his current system, with his current targets, and coming off the injuries from his accident, it’s unlikely that he will develop into a top-10 QB this season. But, it may be around the corner. During the Steelers’ playoff run, the team became a bit more pass-oriented than earlier last season. The Steelers drafted WRs in the first two rounds and have a great young TE. If Ben hadn’t had a reduced role in training camp, a more wide-open offense may have been in order. Expect more of the original conservative game, however, as the team will take it easy on Ben early on. And expect continued growth.
20. Steve McNair, BAL – McNair looked reborn in his first drive as a member of the Baltimore Ravens, peppering TE Todd Heap with bullets as they rode Jamal Lewis down the field. But, it’s pre-season. And McNair’s an old, beat-up 33. A plus is teaming up with Derrick Mason again, and he will have a better offensive line to protect him. If he can remain healthy for most of the season, he will outperform this position.
21. Philip Rivers, SD – Rivers has been handed the helm at San Diego this season. It’s quite possible that he could duplicate Drew Brees’ success despite being less athletic. He is bigger, has a stronger arm, reads defenses well and has a quick release. The Chargers beefed up the surrounding talent to help out Rivers. He will have growing pains, but he’s a guy to have for the future.
22. Byron Leftwich, JAX – As tempting as his stats CAN be, you can’t count on Leftwich as your starting QB. Yes, before his season-ending injury, he passed for 687 yards, five TDs and no INTs, plus ran for two TDs, in a three-game stretch. The two scary factors in picking Leftwich is 1) injuries, of course, and 2) David Garrard playing almost as well, leading the Jags to the playoffs. Add the young, unproven WR corps and the conservative offensive scheme, you have a tough situation here. BUT, if he remains healthy and his talented youngsters develop quickly, Leftwich would be a steal here. Just don’t count on top-10 production.
23. David Carr, HOU – This will probably be a make-or-break season for Carr (literally). The Texans didn’t get the top OL or RB with their pick – they got a linebacker. Carr’s heart had to sink. He does have pluses – we saw what Gary Kubiak did for Jake Plummer last season; he could do the same with Carr. Carr finally has a solid No. 2 option in Eric Moulds. But little was done with that OL, which has led to Carr getting beaten unmercifully and to throw more INTs than TDs in his career. He has as much upside as anyone this low as a backup.
24. Mark Brunell, WAS – Brunell proved that he had one more good year left in him – does he have two of them? He set a career high in TDs last season, plus the team added Brandon Lloyd and Antwaan Randel El to the Santana Moss-led receiving core. Don’t expect last season’s TD numbers, and you always have to consider his age, injury susceptibility and lack of big yardage games. But he makes a good back up.
25. Chris Simms, TB – Simms made it easy for the Bucs to jettison Brian Griese. He has a long way to go to be a consistent fantasy starter, but he showed a lot of promise for a guy shoved into the starting lineup – he completed 61% of his passes and had more TDs than INTs (10/7). He can be rattled by an aggressive pass rush and forced into mistakes, but he should continue to show growth into the position.
26. Brad Johnson, MIN – Johnson performed gallantly for the injured Daunte Culpepper, but he didn’t post stellar numbers. At 38, his best years are far behind him. Plus, there will be a lot of changes in Minnesota, with a new staff and system, a new RB to pin too-high-of-hopes on, and with the news of a possible year-long suspension for No. 1 WR Koren Robinson, Johnson’s fantasy numbers look very bleak.
27. Billy Volek, TEN – Volek made a big splash in 2004 in Steve McNair’s absence. He totaled almost 1,200 yards and 11 TDs with back-to-back 400-yard games in a three-game stretch. He has been spectacular when he’s been in there, but he’s viewed as an afterthought now with the acquisition of Vince Young. Young could appear later in the season, but probably wont be until 2007. But it’s this type of uncertainty that typifies Volek. Just don’t be surprised if he rattles off some big games here and there.
28. Charlie Frye, CLE – Frye, like Rivers, has been handed the starting job. But the comparison ends there. Frye is a Favre-like gunslinger without the physical attributes of Rivers. Frye also lacks the weapons around him like Rivers does. In the conservative Browns’ offense, and injuries to his top two receivers, it will be a long season for Frye. The positive – he will be out there week-after-week because he has no one behind him to challenge him.
29. Chad Pennington, NYJ – This begins the list of players you don’t want near your roster. Pennington is coming off of two surgeries on an already suspect arm. At his best, he never produced big yardage or many TDs. He’s a gamer, but that won’t make up for his lack of a supporting cast or remove the doubt surrounding his durability.
30. Alex Smith, SF – Talk about a tough rookie season – Eleven fumbles. Eleven INTs. One TD. He is just on the beginning stages of a huge learning curve to become a productive NFL QB.
31. J.P. Losman, BUF – What. A. Mess. How can this team draft nine players this season and none of them are QBs? They did take three OL late, so ….. Losman completed less than 50% of his passes and often missed wide open receivers. Holcomb is the better QB, but he has little mobility and a weak arm. It’s just best to not even be tempted by the Bills’ QB.
UPDATE -- He appears to have won the job in Buffalo (woo) and with the poor perforrmance of Rex Grossman, he moved up a spot. That's not an endorsement, by the way.
32. Rex Grossman, CHI – What can you say about a QB that has all the talent and skills out the wazoo, but has only played seven games in three seasons? With the lack of offensive talent around him, the lack of past production from him, and the fact the Bears brought in Brian Griese to back him up, it doesn’t look good for Grossman.
33. Brian Griese, CHI – Lovie Smith loves Grossman, but Griese can easily fit into the Bears’ plans. He’ll have to, especially with Grossman’s injury history. A very valuable backup.
34. Matt Leinart, ARI – Despite his recent contract and entry into camp, don’t vault him up your draft list. Even if (when) Warner gets hurt, it’s not a guarantee that Leinart would get the starting nod, especially in the first half of the season. Nevertheless, you know about the talent. If you have the room on your roster, and draft Warner, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to handcuff Leinart to him for the second half. But the Cards’ would be better off if Leinart had minimal use.
35. Vince Young, TEN – Keep this in mind – Jeff Fisher sat Steve McNair for two seasons behind Chris Chandler for two years. The only way Young will get into the game for extensive time this season is if the Titans are out of the playoff chase.
36. Tony Romo, DAL -- There was a lot of noise about Drew Bledsoe losing his job, but that proved not to be true. What did become apparent is that Parcells seems to like what he sees and would feel confident about starting Romo in place of an injured or a very ineffective Bledsoe. Since Bledsoe wore down late in the year, don't be surprised to see Romo start a game or two to keep Bledsoe fresh for the playoffs.
37. David Garrard, JAX – Garrard is a proven winner, as he showed last season. If Leftwich goes down, feel comfortable snatching him up in his place. Just don’t expect to be overwhelmed by his fantasy prowess.
38. Matt Schaub, ATL – A must-have for Vick owners, Schaub has just been looking for an extended opportunity.
39. Patrick Ramsey, NYJ – The Jets acquired Ramsey as insurance if Pennington isn’t able to go on Week One. Despite all the positive traits that Ramsey has, he has not been able to produce in the past.
UPDATE -- Dropped him a few spots, and raised Kellen Clemens a few. Clemens is on the verge of taking over the No. 2 spot for the Jets.
40. Joey Harrington, MIA – Harrington will shoot up the charts if Culpepper is unable to go or suffers an early-season setback.
41. Kellen Clemens, NYJ
42. Kelly Holcomb, BUF
43. Dan Orlovsky, DET
44. Gus Frerotte, STL
44. Andrew Walter, OAK
45. Jay Cutler, DEN
46. Jeff Garcia, PHI
47. Matt Cassel, NE
48. Josh McCown, DET
Fantasy Football 
For those of you that are newer here, Jeff also does a weekly ranking on individual players that is 90% accurate, with the other 10% being completely unpredcitable. If you ever have an issue trying to decide whom to start, refer to Jeff's weekly list.
Maybe its early for that, but I dont think im the only one that believes rivers will be a stud by years end.
For those of you that are newer here, Jeff also does a weekly ranking on individual players that is 90% accurate, with the other 10% being completely unpredcitable. If you ever have an issue trying to decide whom to start, refer to Jeff's weekly list.
Are you kidding me? This guy has NO idea what he is talking about!
With all that said, I love your rankings... Seriously the best on the net, other ones seem generic.
If my starting QB is very good I want Brunell as my backup. He's more dependable and should have consistently ok games.
If my starting QB is not very good I want Kitna because there is so much talent around him that if things 'click' he'll put up some monstrous numbers.
If my starting QB is very good I want Brunell as my backup. He's more dependable and should have consistently ok games.
If my starting QB is not very good I want Kitna because there is so much talent around him that if things 'click' he'll put up some monstrous numbers.
No offense here, but I wouldnt call the guys around Kitna very talented.
If my starting QB is very good I want Brunell as my backup. He's more dependable and should have consistently ok games.
If my starting QB is not very good I want Kitna because there is so much talent around him that if things 'click' he'll put up some monstrous numbers.
No offense here, but I wouldnt call the guys around Kitna very talented.
Really? What about Kevin Jones, Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Charles Rogers and Marcus Pollard? They have plenty of talent, it has just they have never been able to translate that talent into production in my opinion.
Sure Kevin Jones and Roy Williams have big potential, but they wont be enough to give Kitna "monsterous" numbers this year.
Sure Kevin Jones and Roy Williams have big potential, but they wont be enough to give Kitna "monsterous" numbers this year.
When I said "some monstrous numbers" I meant individual games may be very very good and I'll stand by that with his team. I have not heard anything about Rogers or Williams being cut (though I don't pay much attention now) And Martz has never really had a good TE to work with.
That might get him the ball a little more than a true TE in Martz's offense, but I still dont believe he'll really be much of a difference. If they dont have someone who can catch the ball opposite of Williams, then it wont matter anyways.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AnXCkpQqOuhsCbsKTfrjicpDubYF?slug=dw-lions081806&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
blurb....
This was actually good news for the wide receiver. At least Rogers was still with the team.
Just about everyone in the NFL – Rogers included – figures there is a high probability the former No. 2 overall pick will get cut by the Lions before the start of the season. If Detroit doesn't axe Rogers, then fellow receiver and top-10 pick Mike Williams, who is being fined daily for being overweight, might get whacked (although Williams is still owed a ton of guaranteed money).
Or maybe both will go in favor of two determined no-names – an unheralded rookie (Shaun Bodiford) and a NFL Europe veteran (Glenn Martinez).
News has pretty much been speculating for awhile now that they both wont make the final 53-man roster. Even if one does, it's not looking like they'll be a starter.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AnXCkpQqOuhsCbsKTfrjicpDubYF?slug=dw-lions081806&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
blurb....
This was actually good news for the wide receiver. At least Rogers was still with the team.
Just about everyone in the NFL – Rogers included – figures there is a high probability the former No. 2 overall pick will get cut by the Lions before the start of the season. If Detroit doesn't axe Rogers, then fellow receiver and top-10 pick Mike Williams, who is being fined daily for being overweight, might get whacked (although Williams is still owed a ton of guaranteed money).
Or maybe both will go in favor of two determined no-names – an unheralded rookie (Shaun Bodiford) and a NFL Europe veteran (Glenn Martinez).
News has pretty much been speculating for awhile now that they both wont make the final 53-man roster. Even if one does, it's not looking like they'll be a starter.
WOW, how the mighty have fallen. I feel bad for Mike Williams, he got bad advice and by all accounts got screwed out of a year of good football. I wonder what his deal is now though.
WOW, how the mighty have fallen. I feel bad for Mike Williams, he got bad advice and by all accounts got screwed out of a year of good football. I wonder what his deal is now though.
Yeah well Mike got screwed by the NFL for being too young.
Anyhow, these guys are both insanely young, have the skills, and can still play. Get them in Eagles green and start teaching them the offense. I cannot beleive how one franchise can be so stupid.
They could trade those guys for something.
WOW, how the mighty have fallen. I feel bad for Mike Williams, he got bad advice and by all accounts got screwed out of a year of good football. I wonder what his deal is now though.
Yeah well Mike got screwed by the NFL for being too young.
Anyhow, these guys are both insanely young, have the skills, and can still play. Get them in Eagles green and start teaching them the offense. I cannot beleive how one franchise can be so stupid.
They could trade those guys for something.
Yes we could trade them, but Millen/Marinelli are too stupid to think of it.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AnXCkpQqOuhsCbsKTfrjicpDubYF?slug=dw-lions081806&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
blurb....
This was actually good news for the wide receiver. At least Rogers was still with the team.
Just about everyone in the NFL – Rogers included – figures there is a high probability the former No. 2 overall pick will get cut by the Lions before the start of the season. If Detroit doesn't axe Rogers, then fellow receiver and top-10 pick Mike Williams, who is being fined daily for being overweight, might get whacked (although Williams is still owed a ton of guaranteed money).
Or maybe both will go in favor of two determined no-names – an unheralded rookie (Shaun Bodiford) and a NFL Europe veteran (Glenn Martinez).
News has pretty much been speculating for awhile now that they both wont make the final 53-man roster. Even if one does, it's not looking like they'll be a starter.
that is wierd mel kiper said that mike williams would be a superstar
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AnXCkpQqOuhsCbsKTfrjicpDubYF?slug=dw-lions081806&prov=yhoo&type=lgns
blurb....
This was actually good news for the wide receiver. At least Rogers was still with the team.
Just about everyone in the NFL – Rogers included – figures there is a high probability the former No. 2 overall pick will get cut by the Lions before the start of the season. If Detroit doesn't axe Rogers, then fellow receiver and top-10 pick Mike Williams, who is being fined daily for being overweight, might get whacked (although Williams is still owed a ton of guaranteed money).
Or maybe both will go in favor of two determined no-names – an unheralded rookie (Shaun Bodiford) and a NFL Europe veteran (Glenn Martinez).
News has pretty much been speculating for awhile now that they both wont make the final 53-man roster. Even if one does, it's not looking like they'll be a starter.
that is wierd mel kiper said that mike williams would be a superstar
Just hire me as the GM, Millen has proven himself worthless if he wants to cut Williams. Rogers don't care about, he's injury prone.
Not a lot of movement here -- some good news on the rehab front and some juggling with the backups.
Carson Palmer -- Bumped him up a couple of spots out of courtesy for his comeback on Monday night. I wouldn't look down on the fanboys that will pick him No. 2 or 3. He looked that good.
Daunte Culpepper -- Bumped him up three spots from the solid preseason he has had. He has taken some hits and has moved around well in the pocket. I still have reservations, though.
J.P. Losman -- He appears to have won the job in Buffalo (woo) and with the poor perforrmance of Rex Grossman, he moved up a spot. That's not an endorsement, by the way.
Tony Romo -- There was a lot of noise about Drew Bledsoe losing his job, but that proved not to be true. What did become apparent is that Parcells seems to like what he sees and would feel confident about starting Romo in place of an injured or a very ineffective Bledsoe. Since Bledsoe wore down late in the year, don't be surprised to see Romo start a game or two to keep Bledsoe fresh for the playoffs.
Patrick Ramsey -- Dropped him a few spots. Kellen Clemens is on the verge of taking over the No. 2 spot for the Jets.
Dan Orlovsky -- He appears to have taken the No. 2 spot from Josh McCown and has taken his sleeper title.