Running Backs
August 19, 2006
Prior to the weekly rankings, here is the second in a series of pre-season rankings for the 2006 season. The schedule for the remaining positions would be:
Quarterbacks -- Friday, Aug. 18
Running Backs -- Saturday, Aug. 19
Wide Receivers -- Monday, Aug. 21
Tight Ends -- Tuesday, Aug. 22
Kickers and Defenses -- Wednesday, Aug. 23
Individual Defensive Players -- Thursday, Aug. 24
Red = Sleeper
1. LaDainian Tomlinson, SD – People gripe until they’re blue in the face which of the top three RBs is No. 1. Barring a severe injury, the three are quite equal and deserving of your top pick. With Drew Brees gone, the focus of the Chargers’ offense will be on LT2. San Diego beefed up their OL, and added a blocking TE to the mix, so they are geared up for this season. At 27, he’s not the young buck he was a few years ago, and he’s missed playing time the last two seasons. But what doesn’t make LT2 a guaranteed No. 1 RB is the inexperience of Phillip Rivers. His versatility does make him the pick with the slightly bigger upside.
2. Larry Johnson, KC –Last year, everyone boasted a top-5 season for Willis McGahee by projecting his part-time 2004 numbers, and you know how that turned out. LJ has a much better upside than McGahee did with Buffalo. But there are plenty of questions out there in KC that keep LJ from being a shoo-in No. 1 – New coaching staff, and aging OL without Willie Roaf and no Tony Richardson (one of the top blocking FBs in the game). I can’t say that 2,000 yards, 20+TDs are impossible. It’s just not guaranteed, even if he picks up where he left off last season. But it will be a great ride!
3. Shaun Alexander, SEA – With LT2 No. 1, LJ No. 1A, that puts Alexander No. 1B. I’ll let you decide on the validity of the Madden Curse. The fact is that he will remain among the league leaders in yardage and TDs. With a healthy WR corps, a little of the rushing emphasis will be taken off of Alexander. Plus, his involvement in the passing game in recent seasons has been non-existent. He will greatly miss All-Pro left guard Steve Hutchinson – that will have more affect on him than a curse. He’s been a steady 1,500-yard, 15+TD performer of late and that will continue – he will probably fall short of his career-high numbers of 2005.
4. Tiki Barber, NYG – Barber is no longer a fantasy secret – a league should be disbanded if they let him get out of the first round for another year. He posted the second-highest total yardage season by a RB in league history. However, Brandon Jacobs picked off seven TDs from Tiki’s total, and that should continue as Barber admits he’s about to enter the twilight of his career. For the first time in his career, he may be overvalued, but you can’t let him get by you.
5. Steven Jackson, STL – For the first time, Jackson is the undisputed starter in St. Louis, but people keep thinking that Jackson will just pick up and accumulate Marshall Faulk numbers, and he won’t. In fact, Jackson could switch spots with any of the following six RBs – it’s that tight among them. Scott Linehan will emphasize Jackson in the new offense and Jackson will blossom in the role. He can dominate the line with speed, size and agility. He had a strong second half and you should be able to grab him ahead of those that were disappointed with his 2005 season.
6. Ronnie Brown, MIA – Brown doesn’t have Ricky Williams to worry about this season. That’s good and bad – there’s some concern whether Brown can take the pounding of a 16-game season, especially since he will face a lot of eight-man fronts without Daunte Culpepper in the lineup. Once Daunte is in the lineup, however, Brown’s numbers will explode. Let’s just hope he can hang on and not get too beat up in the meantime.
7. Rudi Johnson, CIN – Johnson has quietly emerged as one of the most dependable RB in football. He doesn’t do it with flash and style – it’s all hard work, as his nearly 700 carries over the last two seasons can attest. Johnson doesn’t seem to show signs of wearing down, however. He’s been a second- or third-round steal for the last three seasons. He won’t get out of the first round this year, especially after setting career marks in rushing yards, TDs and receptions. He should continue to be a force behind the strong Bengal OL.
8. Lamont Jordan, OAK – Jordan has to be happy to have Art Shell as the Raiders’ HC – Shell knows how to work an OL and the work should help improve Jordan’s paltry 3.8 ypc last year. While more of an outlet target instead of a downfield threat like most elite RBs, Jordan caught an impressive 70 passes last season and he’s a candidate for 2,000 total yards this season.
9. Carnell Williams, TB – Durability is the question with Cadillac. He had 88 carries during the first three games and broke down at mid-season. After he got back up to speed, he finished the season with three 100-yard games over the last seven. He is a perfect fit for this offense. Expect increased usage in the passing game and an improved second season with the Bucs.
10. Edgerrin James, ARI – The Cards are thrilled to add the RB that ranks first all-time in total yardage per game (126 ypg). Edge is just thrilled about the money. He moves from the top offense in the league to one with a far inferior OL, but one that is on the verge of becoming a top offense. With the workload Edge has had, one has to wonder how long he can keep it up. He’s no longer a top-5 RB, but he should maintain top-10 value.
11. Clinton Portis, WAS – A week ago, Portis was the No. 4 back. Due to his recent injury, I edged Portis down a couple of spots. It was looking like it was going to be a lot further down, but he only has a Grade One separation (partial) and, with rehab, he will make it back for Week One. What bothers me is that 1) he had a shoulder injury last season, and 2) he’s never been one to avoid collisions. He won’t be 100% all season, and this will affect his ability on the goal line. However, Portis at 90% is still good enough for a top-6 ranking.
UPDATE -- Portis dropped five spots. A small part was further analysis of Portis' injury (nothing worsened), but the biggest factor was the arrival of Duckett. He will vulture several of Portis' goal line carries, especially early in the season.
12. Brian Westbrook, PHI – Westbrook’s durability is already being called into question this pre-season. The coaching staff will certainly question their approach in the first pre-season game – heavy-usage of Westbrook. It looked great for his value at first. Nevertheless, he’s top-10 in PPR leagues as he’s one of the top receiving RBs in the game, and no one is more balanced in the game (617 yards rushing, 616 yards receiving). But he’s not as good a pick in TD-heavy leagues as he is limited in goal line situations.
13. Willis McGahee, BUF – As mentioned earlier, McGahee is proof that you can’t project numbers from a partial season. What happened to McGahee? His college knee injury seems fine, but he seems to lack the speed he once had. But what happened to the power he had in 2004? He was ineffective in short-yardage situations. Maybe it was a dedication problem. A new coaching staff and an improved OL might help him turn it around.
14. Willie Parker, PIT – Parker exploded onto the season last year in a part-time role, and he will be the man with the retirement of Jerome Bettis. But there are a lot of red flags with Parker – his size and durability; the success he showed against mostly weak defenses; the frequently quick removal from the game at the first sign of difficulty with a defense; how will he be used in short-yardage situations. No one can doubt the talent. However, there are a lot of question marks with several second-tier backs – he’s just one of many that could make a great No. 2 RB, or one that could be a risky pick.
15. Warrick Dunn, ATL – Dunn is the Trent Green of RBs – I’m tired of saying he can’t do this, he can’t do that. Despite his drawbacks, Dunn performs. He is in the perfect situation – the best rushing attack with one of the best OL in the league, with a QB that utilizes him in the passing game. He’s not going to score a lot, but he will easily exceed 1,200 total yards. Dunn is the workhorse in this offense.
UPDATE -- Dunn was already ranked pretty high, so there wasn't much room for him to move in my rankings. He did move up two spots to No. 15.
16. Kevin Jones, DET – As disappointing as McGahee was, Jones was an embarrassing failure. He was without blocking back Cory Schlesinger and was subsequently banged up all season. That allowed him to get out of shape and made him ineffective. He has lost weight and is in better shape this season. He’s even improved his receiving abilities to keep him on the field for third downs. Mike Martz not only will help the Lions’ passing game, he knows how to effectively use his RBs. This will be a make-or-break season for Jones – he will either emerge as a top-10 stud, or a colossal failure. Martz is expected to make Jones the former; it’s up to Jones to avoid the latter.
17. Chester Taylor, MIN – Taylor has a great opportunity in Minnesota. He’s a workhorse that has performed when given the chance. The Vikings have added Pro Bowlers Steve Hutchinson and Tony Richardson to block for him. However, Taylor is still viewed as unproven as a feature back and is a risky pick. That said, Taylor could be this season’s Lamont Jordan – a player that will excel with the increased playing time. The running-back-by-committee days in Minnesota should be over, but don’t reach too high for him.
18. Reuben Droughns, CLE – Droughns has performed well the last two seasons in a part-time role – now, he’s the No. 1 back, and has a chance to improve on this ranking. He is quick, agile and dependable. His biggest drawback, however, is the poor Browns’ passing game. He will be the target of opposing defenses – that’s why his ypc was rather low in red-zone situations. But, due to the heavy usage, he will be a quality No. 2 fantasy back if only for his great total yardage numbers – his TDs need to improve.
UPDATE -- Jerome Harrison's impressive work in the preseason sets him up for additional work during the season. Droughns dropped two spots (Dunn took one of them).
19. Julius Jones, DAL – Jones’ value is dropping on a daily basis. It’s evident that the Cowboys are going to run the ball as much as any NFL team – what’s not clear is who is going to get the bulk of the work. Jones is at the top of the depth charts, but Bill Parcells has clearly been favoring Marion Barber. All Barber needs is an opportunity, and Jones has had injury problems and inconsistency in his past. When healthy and effective, Jones can be a top-10 back due to his elusiveness. But it is expected that he will continue to struggle.
20. Jamal Lewis, BAL – It was an easy pick that Lewis will have a down season last year, so expect him to bounce back. There are questions marks (injury history, drug history, the acquisition of Mike Anderson) that hamper his ability to become a top-15 back. He would be a steal in the third or fourth round, though.
21. DeShaun Foster, CAR – Foster has not played a full 16-game schedule, having missed 31 games over his four-year career. He’s a great dual-purpose talent when healthy, and he runs behind a great OL. He will begin the season as the featured back, but he has to keep an eye on rookie DeAngelo Williams, who should steal some carries from him. Foster played in 15 games, yet didn’t rush for 1,000 yards and scored only two TDs. I’m wary of him, but cognizant of his talent as well.
22. Reggie Bush, NO -- Um, I think I’ve heard of this name before. Seriously, there are major question marks in the Saints RB situation. Deuce McAllister is still the listed starter, but how productive will he be? How will Bush be used? It is expected that he will be more than a third-down back this season. At best (if Deuce is reasonable healthy), this looks like a Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown situation – Brown showed flashes of brilliance, but his workload was limited with Williams in the game. There is too much talent on this team to give much focus to Bush in his rookie season. His value is far higher in future seasons.
23. Frank Gore, SF – With Kevan Barlow’s injury, Gore’s value has shot up as of late. He has been looking for this opportunity, but fantasy owners have to temper their expectations due to his major injury history (surgery on both shoulders and knees). He is definitely the better back of the two, but, when healthy, Barlow’s presence will be felt.
UPDATE -- The big winner in the Barlow trade was Gore, who went from a strong RBBC situation to a starting job, bumping him up six spots into solid No. 2 RB territory. Now he just has to stay healthy and perform to that level -- he has the talent.
24. Corey Dillon, NE – Dillon will be the starter going into the season. With the arrival of Laurence Maroney, Dillon’s number of touches should go down, but that should improve his effectiveness and durability. He’s got a lot of mileage, as he’s turning 32 this season, but this may be his last hurrah as a starter. As long as he holds up, he will still produce as he will still bring solid TD production.
25. Deuce McAllister, NO – His recovery from the knee injury is the main reason he’s below Bush and rated this low. He’s a big back with great value, but you have to continue to be concerned about his return and how he will be used. He’s still listed as the No. 1 RB, but he’s no longer the first-round back that was a year ago. He could pay big dividends in this spot. If he’s healthy, expect top-15 production from him.
26. Thomas Jones, CHI – The Bears’ RB situation is a mess, but a good mess. They have two talented, capable RBs, but they both have sustained minor injuries that have kept them out of camp. Jones and Cedric Benson were supposed to share the work last year, but it didn’t turn out that way, as Jones put together a solid season. Benson was in position to be the starting back before the injury, but Jones beat him back onto the field. Jones is the better blocker and has proven himself with the team, so he should get the starting nod. He’s a risky pick, but he has plenty of upside.
27. Mike Bell, DEN – Just about anybody that’s handed a jersey in Denver has a shot at being a talented RB. He’s a strong, patient runner and good receiver that doesn’t have great speed or any standout abilities. He’s getting his shot now, so keep an eye on him and store him away on your roster if you can.
UPDATE -- I guess Shanahan wasn't lying -- Mike Bell is stil No. 1 in Denver, so he's jumped from No. 39 to 27. I still wouldn't be surprised if this is still up in the air in his head -- it could go either way.
28. Fred Taylor, JAX – Taylor is an odd duck. A great talent, but he’s nicknamed “Fragile Freddy” for a reason. Even though he was relatively healthy, his production in 2005 was down, allowing Greg Jones to steal goal line opportunities. It’s apparent that the Jaguars want to continue to build the offense around him, so he still has good value, especially with the news that he is in better shape than in recent seasons. Don’t be afraid to draft him as your third RB.
UPDATE -- With Greg Jones out for the season, Fred Taylor moved up a couple of spots.
29. Tatum Bell, DEN – Ah, ya gotta love Mike Shanahan! It looks like the HC has turned the Broncos’ RB situation into a three-headed state of confusion, proclaiming Mike Bell in the running with Tatum and Ron Dayne. It’s hard to take anything Shanahan says seriously, especially in the pre-season, but it’s apparent that Tatum is in the big guy’s doghouse. Tatum has talent running the ball, but he’s inconsistent – a mess of carries for no gain, mixed in with a 30-yard blazing jaunt. He can’t catch the ball and he’s a poor blocker. But his speed is mesmerizing. He needs to raise his all-around game to become an every down back, and he needs that to happen to become a force. Don’t expect any clarity in the situation for some time.
UPDATE -- Tatum Bell has dropped from No. 26 to No. 29 and Ron Dayne has dropped out of the top 60. But don't be surprised if Cedric Cobbs enters into the equation.
30. Dominic Rhodes, IND – While Rhodes filled in impressively for James in the past, he’s not the complete back that James was, or Addai is, for that matter. Rhodes will probably get the first shot, and in this offense, he has the potential to have a solid season. But the slightest slip-up will make this a strict RBBC very quickly.
UPDATE -- Rhodes remains the starter. But Addai is still in a great spot to succeed in Indy.
31. Joseph Addai, IND – Addai has been climbing up the charts, but it’s still expected to be a split role in the Indy backfield. Dominic Rhodes is the team veteran and should get a lot of work in the red zone, reducing Addai’s immediate role to third-down back. However, if Rhodes slips up, Addai will vault up the list. He is a complete back (rushing/receiving/blocking) that is just looking for an opportunity, and one may develop by mid-season. This is a RBBC situation for now, though. He could easily post a Ronnie Brown-type rookie season.
32. Ahman Green, GB – Green is a much riskier pick than Taylor. Not only is his health in doubt, his production has dropped since his big 2003 season. He was struggling before his season-ending injury last year, and was held without a TD. He’s still listed as the No. 1 RB, but you better have a backup.
33. Chris Brown, TEN – Brown has a very narrow hold on this Titans’ starting job. He is very talented, but with the arrival of LenDale White, Brown is beginning to looking like he will become a situational RB, as Travis Henry also in the mix. Brown has struggled to remain on the field, and 2006 probably won’t be any different.
34. Cedric Benson, CHI – Benson was (reportedly) briefly anointed the starter before an injury sidelined him this pre-season. Jones will probably enter the season as the starter, but expect Benson to make his mark before the campaign ends. Jones will remain a factor, however, giving Benson marginal overall value this season. That would change if Benson gets named the top guy and gets the bulk of the load.
35. Kevan Barlow, SF -- The move affected Barlow's value only slightly, as he's gone from a team with two RBs fighting for a starting job to a team with three RBs fighting for a starting job. Plus, two of the four teams with the fewest rushing attempts last year in the NFL were SF and NYJ, so that didn't help his value much. I moved him up eight spots into borderline No. 3 fantasy starter territory.
36. DeAngelo Williams, CAR – As long as Foster can go out there, game after game, Williams will remain a back-up for this season. But he has explosive potential if given the chance – and that is a very likely chance, given Foster’s history. He is a complete back.
37. Laurence Maroney, NE – Same thing with Maroney – as long as Dillon can go out there, Maroney will have a small part-time role.
38. Marion Barber III, DAL – Barber is a better short-yardage back and a more reliable receiver than Jones, so he will get his fair share of touches in the Cowboy offense. He’s a Parcells favorite, with his hard work, strong inside running, and solid blocking skills. If Jones fails or gets injured, Barber quickly becomes a top-20 back.
39. Domanick Davis, HOU – Davis is another back falling on the charts. Davis was said to be at 100% entering the pre-season following off-season knee surgery, but he has been battling soreness in that knee and has he examined countless times. Word is that he is expected to be held out of the pre-season and he’s looking like a huge gamble fantasy-wise. You know his abilities – just watch this situation and prepare to draft other alternatives. The Texan backups on top of the chart are Vernand Morency and Antowain Smith, but watch out for rookie Wali Lundy to make some noise. A bit of a mess right now to predict.
UPDATE -- Davis has gone from a borderline No. 1 fantasy back to a borderline No. 2 in my original rankings to a risky No. 3 pick, having dropped from 23 to 39.
40. LenDale White, TEN – White’s initial usage for the Titans will be as a goal-line back. But, with Brown’s shaky history, he could take over as the primary back during the season.
UPDATE -- It doesn't look like Chris Brown will be traded (at the moment), so White slipped five spots. He will still be in the mix, as will Travis Henry.
41. T.J. Duckett, ATL
42. Vernand Morency, HOU
43. Samkon Gado, GB
44. Mike Anderson, BAL
45. Jerious Norwood, ATL
46. Chris Perry, CIN
47. Derrick Blaylock, NYJ
48. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX
49. Wali Lundy, HOU
50. Cedric Houston, NYJ
51. Mewelde Moore, MIN
52. Ryan Moats, PHI
53. Brandon Jacobs, NYG
54. Verron Haynes, PIT
55. Duce Staley, PIT
56. Michael Pittman, TB
57. Ladell Betts, WAS
58. Michael Bennett, KC
59. Michael Turner, SD
60. Jerome Harrison, CLE
Super-Duper Deep Sleepers (a lot has to happen for these guys to get a shot):
Correll Buckhalter, PHI
Brian Calhoun, DET
Cedric Cobbs, DEN
Travis Henry, TEN
Noah Herron, GB
Maurice Hicks, SF
Cedric Humes, PIT
Adrian Peterson, CHI
Michael Robinson, SF
Musa Smith, BAL
Leon Washington, NYJ
Fantasy Football 
Unlike the QB rankings, there has been a ton of activity among the RBs -- so much that instead listing the changes individually, I will go by the NFL activity and group the players affected by the moves. Then, I'll pick up any stragglers at the end. One nice thing is that a few of my Super-Duper sleepers -- guys that needed something big to happen to move them up the chart -- already are making their mark.
Kevan Barlow to NYJ -- this move affected Frank Gore, Maurice Hicks, Michael Robinson for SF, and Curtis Martin, Cedric Houston, Derrick Blaylock for NYJ. The move affected Barlow's value only slightly, as he's gone from a team with two RBs fighting for a starting job to a team with three RBs fighting for a starting job. Plus, two of the four teams with the fewest rushing attempts last year in the NFL were SF and NYJ, so that didn't help his value much. I moved him up eight spots into borderline No. 3 fantasy starter territory.
The big winner was Gore, who went from a strong RBBC situation to a starting job, bumping him up six spots into solid No. 2 RB territory. Now he just has to stay healthy and perform to that level -- he has the talent. Smith and Robinson moved up to the No. 2 and 3 RBs in SF, making them Super-Deep sleeper prospects.
Martin has been put on the PUP list, and the Barlow acquisition took a little shine off of Blaylock and Houston, but not to the level they were at when Martin was healthy. They still have some value -- in fact, Blaylock's play bumped him up a few spots, but Houston's knocked his down a few. They will be in the mix before it's over.
T.J. Duckett to WAS -- This move affected the value of Warrick Dunn, Jerious Norwood of ATL and Clinton Portis, Ladell Betts for WAS. Duckett moved from a backup role to a scatback to a backup role to a potential top-5 RB. The only positive affect this has on Duckett's value lies in Portis' injury. Duckett should be heaviliy used in short-yardage and goal line situations. He moved up six spots.
Portis dropped five spots. A small part was further analysis of Portis' injury (nothing worsened), but the biggest factor was the arrival of Duckett. He will vulture several of Portis' goal line carries, especially early in the season. Betts looked to take a big uptick in value with Portis' injury -- instead, his value went down with the acquisition of Duckett (a net drop of five spots).
Dunn was already ranked pretty high, so there wasn't much room for him to move in my rankings. He did move up two spots to No. 15.
The biggest winner in Duckett deal was Norwood. Originally listed as a Super-Duper Sleeper, he vaulted up to No. 45 (a couple of spots ahead of where Duckett was). Norwood will be worked into his role, but he has shown in the pre-season that he can handle the workload. He won't naturally get all of Duckett's goal line carries, but he will get his share.
The Domanick Davis injury -- He has gone from a borderline No. 1 fantasy back to a borderline No. 2 in my original rankings to a risky No. 3 pick, having dropped from 23 to 39. Vernand Morency has vaulted from No. 60 to No. 42, and Wali Lundy from Super-Duper Sleeper status to No. 49. Morency and Lundy (both are strong inside runners with very little speed) are must acquisition with great upsides.
The lovely Bronco RB situation -- I guess Shanahan wasn't lying -- Mike Bell is stil No. 1 in Denver, so he's jumped from No. 39 to 27. I still wouldn't be surprised if this is still up in the air in his head -- it could go either way. Tatum Bell has dropped from No. 26 to No. 29 and Ron Dayne has dropped out of the top 60. But don't be surprised if Cedric Cobbs enters into the equation.
Reuben Droughns/Jerome Harrison -- Harrison's impressive work in the preseason sets him up for additional work during the season. Droughns dropped two spots (Dunn took one of them), while Harrison improved from the Super-Duper Sleeper list into the top 60.
Greg Jones injury -- With Jones out for the season, Fred Taylor moved up a couple of spots, while Maurice Jones-Drew moved up six spots.
Domanic Rhodes/Joseph Addai -- Swapped their spots as Rhodes remains the starter. But Addai is still in a great spot to succeed in Indy.
LenDale White -- It doesn't look like Chris Brown will be traded (at the moment), so White slipped five spots. He will still be in the mix, as will Travis Henry.
Verron Haynes/Duce Staley -- Haynes has the No. 2 spot in Pittsburgh, so Haynes dropped five spots, Staley dropped five spots and sits right behind Haynes.
Whew.