Wide Receivers
August 21, 2006
Prior to the weekly rankings, here is the third in a series of pre-season rankings for the 2006 season. The schedule for the remaining positions would be:
Quarterbacks -- Friday, Aug. 18
Running Backs -- Saturday, Aug. 19
Wide Receivers -- Monday, Aug. 21
Tight Ends -- Tuesday, Aug. 22
Kickers and Defenses -- Wednesday, Aug. 23
Individual Defensive Players -- Thursday, Aug. 24
Red = Sleeper
1. Steve Smith, CAR – Smith had a season in 2005 that in no way he can match. He had 69 more receptions than the No. 2 receiver on the Panthers. Now, they have Keyshawn Johnson, plus the emergence of Drew Carter and a solid crew of other receivers. Add to that the fact that the Panthers would love to better emphasize the running game, as they drafted DeAngelo Williams to backup stud (when healthy) DeShaun Foster. There are too many weapons (when healthy and effective) to think that he will prove to be much better than any of the several WRs below him in 2006. The one advantage Smith has going for him this season is that while he won’t see as many passes this year, he’s so explosive, and with some attention averted elsewhere, he could match last season’s TD total. Just don’t draft him in the first round thinking you will get 2005 quality from him. The only reason he’s above Chad Johnson is the fact that (right now) it’s hard to see Carson Palmer being 100% from Week One on.
2. Chad Johnson, CIN – And, it doesn’t look like Palmer will be 100%. That said, CJ is the most talented WR in the game today and will be among the league leaders in yards and TDs no matter how many games Palmer plays. I just wish Johnson was a little more outgoing.
3. Torry Holt, STL – The Rams (and fantasy owners) got a scare this week when Holt went to the locker room for X-rays on his sternum after landing on the point of the ball. Luckily, the X-rays were negative, but as commentator Marshall Faulk said, “Torry Holt would play with cracked ribs. He’s not like your average receiver.” Very true. Holt played most of last season with a knee injury and still managed 102 receptions – the second-highest of his career. He is one of the most consistent WRs in the game.
4. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI – Fitzgerald is the best young possession WR in the game today. The only questions involving him are: 1) what effect will Edgerrin James have on his reception numbers? 2) Will Anquan Boldin stay healthy and continue to develop, taking away a few more receptions? 3) How long will Kurt Warner stay healthy (and can Matt Leinart perform soon if he doesn’t)? No matter how negative your answers, you can’t ignore the talent. He definitely will see fewer passes, but he should remain quite effective.
5. Randy Moss, OAK – Injuries (and attitude) has hampered Moss the last two seasons, but no WR can perform like Moss can when he’s on top of his game. But his biggest detriment this season is Aaron Brooks – I just don’t have much faith in him as a strong vertical-passing QB. But, if there ever was a WR that can cover up a mediocre QB’s mistakes, it’s Moss. And if they can manage a decent level of chemistry, Moss can get back into the top 5.
6. Terrell Owens, DAL – Everything involving Owens includes the preface, “As long as he doesn’t tick off the coaches and get kicked off the team …” So, outside of that, expect a dominating season from Owens. Bill Parcells has proven that he can work with malcontents (Terry Glenn (twice), Keyshawn Johnson). What will be interesting to see is how he will be used. It has been stated (quite publicly) that Owens won’t get 100 receptions in the Cowboys’ offense – one where Drew Bledsoe already works very well with Glenn and Jason Witten. When he gets the ball, he will be very successful -- just not quite top-5 successful.
7. Marvin Harrison, IND – Harrison is a good man, and you don’t know how much it pains me not to list him above the low-life duo of Moss and Owens. But it’s just too hard to calculate the affect that losing Edgerrin James will have on the Colts’ passing game, and thus, on Harrison. He’s about as close as there is as a sure thing – he’s missed just two games in seven seasons, never drops a pass and runs the most precise routes in the game.
8. Anquan Boldin, ARI – Between the Cards’ receivers, Boldin presents the best value as he should approach the same numbers as Fitzgerald, but would be available a round later. Fitz and James might steal some TDs from him, but Boldin has the speed and sure-handedness that makes him an elite WR. If he can stay healthy and not lose too many of those extra TDs, he could sneak into the top 5 of this list.
9. Chris Chambers, MIA – Chambers had his breakout season last year, setting career highs in yards, receptions and TDs. All that happened for him in the off-season is that the Dolphins got a couple of real QBs, Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington. True, they aren’t a picture-perfect duo, but even with their current baggage, they provide Miami with the best QB situation since Dan Mario retired. If Culpepper was 100%, Chambers would be top-5 material. He’s not, and Chambers’ numbers will struggle during the changeover in the opening weeks, but expect a great second half.
10. Reggie Wayne, IND – Wayne is one of the top No. 2 WRs in the league, and he’s expected to continue to get better. He’s versatile on both deep routes and over the middle, taking the pressure off of Harrison. His yardage fell some last season, but the Colts passed less as well, so no worries here.
11. Hines Ward, PIT – Ward is one of the toughest SOBs in the game, but his days of being a top fantasy WR are dwindling. He’s battling a hamstring injury that just won’t go away, TE Heath Miller is taking away big catches from him, and the Steelers drafted a pair of speedy WRs in Santonio Holmes and Willie Reid. Nevertheless, he runs his routes, makes his catches and remains very successful. He should benefit from fewer double coverages, but just don’t expect the same ol’ Hines Ward.
12. Darrell Jackson, SEA – Jackson missed most of 2005 with a knee injury, but came back and played well over the last few weeks (20 receptions for 268 yards and two TDs in the playoffs). However, he had his knee ‘scoped over the off-season and is a health concern in 2006. If he’s able to come back 100%, he’s primed to become an elite fantasy WR. Santana Moss doesn’t have the health concerns, but Jackson’s upside is so much higher that you should be willing to let someone else take Moss and go with Jackson a few picks later.
13. Santana Moss, WAS – Moss’ value last season was astronomical, much like the season that Steve Smith had. The chances for Moss to repeat the season are quite slim. Odds are Mark Brunell won’t duplicate last season. Moss was able to take advantage of the team losing the rest of its WRs to injury during the year. The Redskins’ new OC likes to spread the ball around. Along with the continued development of TE Chris Cooley, the Redskins added Antwaan Randle El and Brandon Lloyd to the mix. Moss should fall back to decent No. 2 fantasy WR land in 2006. He just hasn’t shown any consistency in his career to be a shoo-in fantasy No. 1.
14. Donald Driver, GB – Driver proved that he can handle the No.1 job in Green Bay last season (86 receptions, 1,221 yards). His TD total was low because Brett Favre’s TD total was low and the team was decimated by injuries. Expect both players’ numbers to improve in 2006. A solid No. 2 WR.
15. Roy Williams, DET – The Mike Martz Effect should trickle down to Williams. For the first time, Williams will be playing with a proved QB in Jon Kitna. He should hit 1,000 yards for the first time and prove to be a solid red-zone target.
16. Plaxico Burress, NYG – Burress made the move to the Giants with ease. He managed to succeed despite Eli Manning’s growing pains last year. Manning’s completion percentage should be better this season, which will bode well for the Giants’ best WR. Expect a career year from Burress.
17. Andre Johnson, HOU – Despite being a No. 1-quality fantasy WR, you have to look at Johnson’s situation when you consider him. He gets swarmed in coverage and QB David Carr can’t stay off his back with the Texans’ horrid OL. New No. 2 WR Eric Moulds should help with the coverage problem. So, despite the horrid fantasy numbers, you still have to consider Johnson a solid No. 2 WR option if you get him for the right value.
18. T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN – Heheh. That “T.J. Hoosyomama” draft commercial still cracks me up. Anyway. Housh set career highs in TDs and receptions last year. He is a big red zone target for Palmer. Again, like with Johnson, Housh’s value is greatly affected by Palmer’s health – probably even more so. He continues to improve as a player and if Palmer can return quickly, Housh will be a great No. 2 on a team and outplay this position. So, don’t forget the name, “Hooshamazzilli”. “Championshiiiiip!”.
19. Derrick Mason, BAL – Mason continues to be overlooked as one of the great possession receivers in the league. Despite the Ravens’ offensive limitations, he still was able to collect 86 receptions last season and gain 1,000 yards for the fifth straight season. Now, his old buddy, Steve McNair, is in Baltimore. Mason should continue to thrive as the Ravens’ No. 1 target.
20. Javon Walker, DEN – The Broncos made the big move on Draft Day to acquire Walker to be the big-play WR opposite Rod Smith. It could be a huge gamble if Walker isn’t 100% from his torn ACL sustained last season. He’s in a great situation in Denver, but don’t go after him too high as his name may attract some to do. He won’t get Green Bay numbers because he isn’t the clear-cut No. 1 in Denver, where they love to run first, throw second – especially to the clutch Smith. This really wasn’t a move to position the Broncos to replace Smith when he retires – it was a move to replace Ashley Lelie. Don’t overreach for Walker.
21. Rod Smith, DEN – The arrival of Walker has had people forget about the steady Rod Smith. He will see more single coverage opposite a (hopefully healthy) Walker. Down the road, Walker will replace Smith, but for this season, Smith should provide great value.
22. Joey Galloway, TB – At age 34, Galloway had his best season of his career – even better than any of his great first four seasons in Seattle, and it was his first 1,000-yard season since 1998. It was great to see him become a top-10 WR once again. However, I think it will be short-lived. He should have a solid season, but Michael Clayton will bounce back from his extremely disappointing (and injury-hampered) 2005. Plus, with the development of TE Alex Smith, there’s no way that Galloway will account for 40% of the Bucs’ receiving yards in 2006.
23. Lee Evans, BUF – Evans is the No.1 WR in Buffalo with the departure of Eric Moulds, which is either a good or a bad thing. A lot of his success depends on the ability for the Bills to find some semblance of a decent QB out of their mess, and for Willis MaGahee to become a threat to take some pressure off the passing game. Evans is an established playmaker, with 16 TDs in his first two seasons. He will receive a lot of double coverage now. He was an effective No. 2 WR in Buffalo. Can he succeed as a No. 1?
24. Deion Branch, NE – With his continued holdout, Branch’s value continues to drop. Ironically, his perceived fantasy value is settling in where his actual fantasy value should be. I’m amazed at how people continue to think he’s a top-15 WR, when his stats rarely get him in the top-25. It’s either all or nothing with Branch – a No. 1 fantasy WR, or a guy that vanishes for weeks on end. Actually, if he holds out, that will be just a little below his average fantasy production. This ranking is if he doesn’t hold out, he’s back for Week One and the offense doesn’t have devastating injuries so they can function as normal, because, for the first time, he’s the clear No. 1 WR in NE. I’d just stay away and give the headache to someone else.
25. Eddie Kennison, KC – Kennison always provides good value on draft day. He is overshadowed by Tony Gonzalez and a great running game, but he always manages to work his way into the top-25 WR list. He’s the only proven WR on the Chiefs and last season, he set a career high in targets, receptions and yardage. While Samie Parker becomes the deep threat in this offense, Kennison will continue to develop into the key possession receiver in KC.
26. Muhsin Muhammad, CHI – Muhammad had the expected fall in Chicago in 2005 from the great 2004 season he had in Carolina. But Muhammad may be in position to have a bit of a rebound. A healthy Rex Grossman is nothing to get excited about, but the Bears added a veteran QB in Brian Griese to back him up. The Bears is still a run-first offense, but there’s still some upside to picking him at value.
27. Donte Stallworth, NO – I don’t know why people are missing this fact – even though Joe Horn is listed as No. 1 on depth charts, Stallworth is the one performing like a No. 1 WR. Despite Horn being Aaron Brooks’ favorite receiver, Stallworth had more targets (63-58), receptions (32-25), yards (397-308) and TDs (4-0) than Horn after the Week 10 bye. Drew Brees is smart enough to realize that, even if most don’t.
28. Laveranues Coles, NYJ – We probably saw Coles at his worst with the Jets last season – with a mixture of poor performing QBs and an OL decimated by injuries, he still managed 845 yards and five TDs. No matter who the QB is this year, the situation is a little better, so expect a moderate improvement from Coles this season.
29. Joe Horn, NO – I have listed above why you shouldn’t take Horn above Stallworth. Horn is still a rosterable WR – if you get him at value. He still has playmaking ability with Brees running a more pure WCO scheme. Just be prepared for him to miss time with the occasional injury.
30. Matt Jones, JAX – Jones is FLYING up the rankings this pre-season. It’s quite evident that someone has to take over the No. 1 WR role with the retirement of Jimmy Smith, but with the inexperience among Jones, Ernest Wilford and Reggie Williams, it looked like a crapshoot for the top job. Jones is a Randy Moss-like freak at WR, but he is still extremely raw, so I think I have him conservatively placed. You have to be concerned with the health of Byron Leftwich, the effectiveness of the running game and the aforementioned Wilford and Williams. But if anyone is to step out head and shoulders (literally) above the crowd with a massive upside, it will be Jones. Just don’t jump on him too early.
31. Terry Glenn, DAL – The Drew Bledsoe-Terry Glenn combo proved to be a great success last season, with Glenn posting his best statistical season since 1999. Glenn drops to the No. 2 WR role with the arrival of Owens, but that should open up the field for him as Glenn will receive more single coverage – something that he hasn’t seen in years as he’s been the No. 1 everywhere he’s been. Glenn won’t get many TDs, but his reception total and yardage should remain solid as he can turn a short pass into a big gain with the best of them.
32. Reggie Brown, PHI – Brown was a pleasant surprise last season when he was forced into the No. 1 WR role. Without Donovan McNabb throwing to him in the second half of the year, Brown posted solid numbers. McNabb will look at Brown first downfield and he should have a good second season. HOWEVER, there are some people reaching for him early, expecting him to be a very good No. 2 WR, and he may be. In time. But he’s still a young WR learning a complicated offense, so don’t be the guy that takes him in the low 20s among WRs – wait and make him a solid No. 3 or 4 WR pick and reap the benefits as the season unfolds. If someone wants to take him a couple of rounds too early, fine.
33. Drew Bennett, TEN – Bennett is a tough pick – if healthy, he’s a great No. 2 option for a fantasy team. But injuries marred his 2005 season, making his hold on the No. 1 WR role shaky at best. Add to that, David Givens’ arrival to the team with a quest to be No. 1, and new QB Billy Volek. Maybe, just maybe, Bennett would be best as No. 2 – it was there, with Volek as the QB, that Bennett had his breakout season in 2004.
34. Michael Clayton, TB – As we all know now, Clayton played 2005 with a knee injury, which led him to be one of the all-time one-season fantasy busts. So, I need to see that he’s 100% before I believe it. And we can’t forget the rapport that Galloway and Chris Simms had last season. That said, Clayton presents amazing value at this spot. Galloway shouldn’t be able to keep up that production, forcing Simms to spread the ball around. Clayton will bounce back – that’s a given. How much? We’ll have to see, but don’t wait too long claim Clayton as your No. 3/backup WR.
35. Isaac Bruce, STL – Bruce has been overlooked in recent seasons due to the emergence of Torry Holt, and people really jumped off the bandwagon after the toe injury last season. He still performed well upon his return. One interesting key is that Mike Martz used a lot of 3-4 WR sets – Scott Linehan will not, allowing Bruce to have a more prominent role, lessening the blur that occurred between him and No. 3 WR Kevin Curtis. Bruce will have another solid season for the Rams.
36. Keenan McCardell, SD – Year after year, McCardell always provides great value in the draft. Last season’s nine TDs were an aberration, but he will continue to produce solid numbers as the Chargers’ No. 1 WR.
37. Nate Burleson, SEA – Burleson is a tough guy to predict. He was a huge failure in Minnesota and hopes to breathe life back into his career as a No. 2 WR in Seattle. However, you can’t plug Burleson into to Joe Jurevicius’ numbers last year as a No. 2 because Jurevicius was forced into playing as a No. 1 most of the season. With a healthy Jackson, Burleson won’t have those opportunities. Plus, don’t forget the presence of Bobby Engram in this offense.
38. Keyshawn Johnson, CAR – Think Muhsin Muhammad here. Johnson is a big, possession receiver that Jake Delhomme loves. With teams focusing on Smith, Johnson could be in for a big season – not top-10 or anything near it, but a very good season for a guy that you can draft for your backup.
39. Antonio Bryant, SF – This is awfully low for a team’s No. 1 WR, but, well, “awful” is a good description for this offense. But that’s not to say that Bryant is without value. He was able to gain 1,000 yards for an equally putrid passing offense in Cleveland, and he should be able to do that in San Fran. Brandon Lloyd was reasonable successful last year, and Bryant is a steadier WR whose game is still developing. He’s a man that Alex Smith can count on.
40. Eric Moulds, HOU – Buffalo is about that only place that a WR can go to Houston from, be relegated to a No. 2 WR, and have that be considered a positive step. Moulds can have nice value at this spot. With Andre Johnson as No.1, he will receive the most attention and Moulds will draw a lot of single coverage. Expect that Houston’s number of pass attempts to rise as David Carr has a second WR to consistently throw to. An excellent backup selection.
41. Ernest Wilford, JAX
42. Joe Jurevicius, CLE
43. Mark Clayton, BAL
44. David Givens, TEN
45. Amani Toomer, NYG
46. Roddy White, ATL
47. Troy Williamson, MIN
48. Kevin Curtis, STL
49. Jerry Porter, OAK
50. Brandon Lloyd, WAS
51. Michael Jenkins, ATL
52. Brandon Edwards, CLE
53. Samie Parker, KC
54. Bobby Engram, SEA
55. Reche Caldwell, NE
56. Eric Parker, SD
57. Marty Booker, MIA
58. Brandon Stokley, IND
59. Travis Taylor, MIN
60. Hank Baskett, PHI
Super-Duper Deep Sleepers:
Corey Bradford, DET
Mark Bradley, CHI
Drew Carter, CAR
Jerricho Cotchery, NYJ
Doug Gabriel, OAK
Chris Henry, CIN
Greg Jennings, GB
Reggie Williams, JAX
Fantasy Football 
what do the rest of you guys think about him this year???
I also have hasselbeck as my qb so I hope to get a nice return from the two of these guys for my draft picks
Well he is ranked 55 on his list which means in a ten team league, he will more than likely be on the WW. In a 12 teamer, he will be there late in the draft, and in an even deeper league, he is worth picking late.
Also, I don't think Wilford will out produce Jones.
Thanks for the "notice". I meant for that to be Hank Basket, not Taylor. Corrected.
Well, he is the No. 1 WR IN CAMP, so if the holdout continues, he has value early in the season. And he's as good as any other No. 2 possibility in NE. And regarding his past -- no No. 2 or 3 WR in SD would look good, since he's effectively a No. 3 or 4 with Gates there, so that's not a good gauge (to me) of his ability. Like Shaun said, he's not a guy to bank on, but in a deep league, he could pay early dividends to fill a hole.
There are no guarantees in Jacksonville.