Out on a Limb
Fantasy Football Predictions

The Original Six

The predictions made here each week do not represent the views of everyone on FIC and should not be used for gambling purposes.

Some try blind guesses by having their pets pick the games each week based on which treat they decide to choose. Others make themselves out to have bizarre psychic nicknames. Still more throw darts at a board and pick whoever it lands on. And, yes... there are a few actual experts, but I'm not one of them. Kick off every weekend with "The Mutt" as he tests his skills all season long against a few of our correspondents in the race for the FIC Cup.

Official FIC Cup Standings (Last Week in Parentheses)

Tim Noakes 27-18-1 (8-6)
Jeff Brown 26-19-1 (8-6)
The Mutt 25-20-1 (8-6)
Zach McCann 19-26-1 (7-7)
Jay Schell 19-26-1 (8-6)
Chris Wang 11-19 (5-9)

The Original Six

Pardon The Mutt for being a bit stuck on hockey, but three drafts in the last 48 hours are at fault. As we head into Week Four of the NFL season, seven teams can still boast that they're unbeaten. Six can move to 4-0, while the Raiders have already taken their bye week.

Five of the seven get to take their act on the road this week. Some, such as the Saints and the Broncos, look like they'll have an easy time of it against the Lions and Ravens respectively, no matter where they're playing. The Dolphins get to play a scrappy Chiefs team in Arrowhead that is tied for fifth in the league in scoring. The Panthers look to continue to live the dream this week, and will head into the not so frozen (yet) Tundra of Lambeau Field to face a very tough Packers team. The Raiders get to host a struggling, but dangerous, Tennessee Titan team at home.

However, there's one game that stands out above the rest. There will be at least one unbeaten team to fall this week, as Tom Brady and the Patriots (3-0) head to sunny San Diego to face LT and the Bolts (3-0) in what is surely our.....

Game of the Week: New England (-3) at San Diego

Offense
Both teams like to grind it out on the ground and chew up clock, and both have quality young starters that can air it out when necessary. The difference, offensively, is that Tom Brady has the experience of leading his team to the Super Bowl last year. While no game in September can truly be classified as huge, this will be closer than San Diego's Drew Brees has ever been to a playoff atmosphere. If he can hold up, or the game is low scoring and dominated by the running game, the Bolts will be right there all the way. Tomlinson unquestionably has the edge over Antowain Smith, but..... Advantage Patriots

Defense
For some reason, everyone believes that the first three games that the Bolts played (vs. CIN, HOU, ARI) should be thrown out the window. Newsflash: The Chargers had a top ten defense last season, which has mainly been kept in tact. If anything, they're a better defensive team than they've shown in the first three weeks because All-Pro Rodney Harrison isn't patrolling the secondary and All-Pro LB Junior Seau isn't 100%. The problem is that those same two Pro-Bowlers still aren't 100%. Harrison still won't be in the lineup. Their strength is against the run, so look for Belichik to have the split formation ready for Brady to attack from.

The Patriots have been praised constantly for their defense, but are really more of a "bend but don't break" team. The defense that people called so dominant last season was actually ranked in the lower third of the league, but plays astonishingly well when their backs are to the wall. They love to create turnovers, and that may not bode well for second-year QB (and first as starter) Drew Brees. The Bolts are very good at turning the ball over as well, though.... It's only a slight edge, but.... Advantage Chargers

Special Teams
Speedy former FSU star Tamarick Vanover has proven to be a fantastic return man early on for the Chargers, but Troy Brown is as slick and gritty a return man as there is in the league. The Patriots have a clear edge in every department of special teams, with the possible exception of the punters. Bolts P Darren Bennett still has one of the better legs that the NFL has seen in recent years, and could figure to be a much bigger key than anticipated in a tight, field position game. Advantage Patriots

Intangibles
The Chargers are riding high after a 3-0 start, but so are the Pats. Still, everyone is gunning for the Patriots this year, and a win at home against the Super Bowl champs would sure win over some believers in San Diego. This game could make or break San Diego's season. Advantage Chargers

Expect a tight, fairly low-scoring game, despite the fact that the teams rank #1 and #10 in scoring so far this season. LT will find the end zone twice, but Brees will make up for it with a late interception that will set up the Patriots final drive. As time expires, Adam Vinatieri will try to nail his fifth field goal of the game, and......... miss from 52. Chargers 20, Patriots 19

Lock of the Week: Tampa Bay (-6.5) at Cincinnati
Akili Smith?!?!?!?!?!?!? Good way to hurt a kid's confidence. He may be broken by the end of this one. Bucs 30, Bungles 6

Upset Special: New York Jets at Jacksonville (-3.5)
Is Taylor still healthy???? It can't last. Brunell will find himself dreaming of days gone by when Tony Boselli was blocking for him. Jets coach Herman Edwards will rest Martin, but Vinny will light the Jags pathetic secondary up. J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets 24, Jags 13

Here are a few things to think about while Randy Moss lights up another joint before trying out for the Minnesota State Penitentiary football team.

- R.D.C.I. (2/day since Opening Day - Dayne Cheeseburger Consumption 48, Giants 48 (dead heat!)
- Kurt Warner TDs - 1
- Kurt Warner INTs - 7
- Derrick Brooks TDs - 2
- Baltimore Ravens TDs - 1

Miami (-3) at Kansas City - The Mammals are looking damn near unbeatable, and the Chiefs have lucked into one of the toughest two week stretches that any team will face all year. After nearly giving the Champs a heart-attack last week, the Chiefs will run out of steam a bit, and Ricky will keep on chugging with his fourth 100-yard game in a row. Dolphins 27, Chiefs 17

New Orleans (-7.5) at Detroit - It's a darn shame that the Lions can't feel like they have to put up a good fight unless they're opening their new stadium. Brooks, Deuce, Horn... just too much. Saints 31, Lions 13

Carolina at Green Bay (-7.5) - Osteoporosis is setting in, but Peete just won't give in. The Panthers, once considered a laughing stock, will give it their all to move to 4-0 with the rest, but just don't have the horses in this one. They'll cover though. Cheeseheads 23, Panthers 17

Houston at Philadelphia (-20) - If you see The Mutt take a team giving twenty points the rest of the year, please treat him like Old Yeller. McNabb won't have any trouble in this one, and the Texans have nothing to answer with. The Eagles secondary will chew David Carr up and spit him back out to the tune of two defensive touchdowns. Eagles 31, Texans 0

Tennessee at Oakland (-6.5) - Lock of the Week II - Rich Gannon will NOT throw 64 passes in this one, but he should throw enough to hold off a game Titan team that doesn't quite look to be playing at 100% right now. Win or lose, the Titans are always within a TD either way. Oakland 24, Tennessee 23

Denver (-7) at Baltimore - Who the !$@#!$@ told Brian Billick that he was an offensive genius a few years ago? The Bronco D's strength? The run. The Ravens only weapon? Jamal Lewis. Maybe he'll manage to sneak in the end zone once..... Broncos 27, Ravens 10

Chicago at Buffalo (-3) - Bledsoe gets to face a real test at home against Da Bears overachieving defense. Jim Miller, Marty Booker, and Co., however, get to feed off of the worst secondary east of Minnesota. Bears 31, Bills 27

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-6.5) - The Browns through the air this year: 284/game. The Steelers against the pass: 324.5/game. Until Cowher can get his secondary looking halfway decent, stay farrrrr away from Pittsburgh. Browns 27, Steelers 24

Dallas at St. Louis (-13.5) - The Rams absolutely have to be the first 0-3 team in the history of the NFL to be laying two touchdowns in a game. The sad part? They'll win by twice that. Lambs 38, Cowgirls 10

New York Giants (-2.5) at Arizona - No respect for the Birds! Thomas Jones should find a seam or two, and the Giants are much more like the offensive force to be reckoned with that scored 9 points last week against the Seahawks than the one that tore up the Rams for 26. Ron Dayne will appear to cough the ball up on a goal-line carry early on, but it will merely be lost in his gut. Cardinals 27, Giants 13

Minnesota at Seattle (-3) - Randy Moss better make sure not to take out any airport security guards with a golf cart. The Vikings secondary will once again prove that they are the worst secondary west of Buffalo. Trent Dilfer should hook up with Darrell Jackson twice, Koren Robinson once, and Itula Mili once as the 'Hawks give the home faithful a little to cheer about. Seahawks 34, Vikings 13

And now, for our new guest columnist feature. Starting with week six, we'll be asking all of you to throw out a little insight on the games within the column. There will be a contest each week (most likely, the most convincing argument for the Game of the Week) for the lucky winner who gets to shout out their feelings on the game and pick head to head with The Mutt. As this is the first time that this section is being run, Mike Timberlake, our Patriots Correspondent, will be throwing in his two cents!

Guest Pick Set

Mike Timberlake – Patriots Correspondent

Game Of The Week

Similar to last season, the Patriots and Chargers meet in a crossroads game. The teams met last year with the surprising Bolts at 3-1 visiting Foxboro to face the lowly 1-3 Patsies (I can use the word Patsies here if you note the record). Pats QB Tom Brady directed his first comeback win in what was to become a season of miracle finishes, as New England won 29-26 in OT. The Patriots went on to win 13 of their next 15 games, including the playoffs and Super Bowl XXXVI. San Diego fell apart after this game, losing 9 of their last 11.

This season, the backdrop is a bit different. New England and San Diego are both 3-0. The game is in sunny Southern California and the make-up of these teams is vastly different. The Patriots enter as the team everyone wants to knock off and they look mortal after their near-loss experience last week vs. Kansas City. While undefeated, San Diego has played a soft schedule thus far. This is their first real test of 2002. A loss could mean disaster for San Diego, as they remember what happened last year. So too, a loss could mean bad things for the Pats, as the league is just waiting for the first stumble to knock them down a few pegs. What would a win mean? It would be a huge confidence boost for the Chargers. It is more important for them to win this game. For New England, they’re supposed to beat this team, so a win is far less important to their season than a loss would be.

Offense
The time chewing, gun-slinging offense New England employs has featured a spread formation each week for Brady. This unit has been unstoppable, averaging the most points in the league at 38.3 per game. They also lead the league in passing yards per game (316) and average over 100 yards on the ground per game. The passing game has been the bread and butter for the Patriots, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them switch things up this week and rely on the ground game a bit more.

San Diego utilizes a much more balanced offense. Sophomore LaDanian Tomlinson leads the attack on the ground, which is the third best in the league (163.3 ypg). Second year QB Drew Brees hasn’t had a breakout game yet. He has not thrown for over 200 yards in a game yet this year and the odds are he won’t this week either. For the Chargers to win, they’ll have to control the time of possession to keep the Pats offensive juggernaut off the field. Fortunately, they have a back that is able to carry out that game plan. The loss of center Cory Raymer hurts their running game, though. Advantage Patriots

Defense
You just know Pats’ coach Bill Belichick is salivating for this one. Brees stands little chance against a Belichick-designed defense. It will be the Pats front seven vs. Tomlinson. If San Diego comes into this one and tries to use the same game plan the Chiefs did last week, they’re done. Priest Holmes had to face a banged up defense, particularly at linebacker. With the Pats linebacking corps healthy for this game, San Diego will have to look for some defensive or special teams scores.

If you look at the top of the team defensive standings, you may be surprised to see the Bolts sitting there. They average only 8 points against and lead the league in passing yards allowed per game (132). They also have been tough against the run, allowing an average of just 74 yards per game. Nice stats. Now, look at who they’ve played: Cincinnati, Houston, and Arizona. Now, that may explain the tough defensive numbers. Make no mistake, though, this is a good defensive unit. It just isn’t as good as the numbers say. Advantage Patriots

Special Teams
New England has the best kicker in the game in Adam Vinatieri. If it comes down to a game-winning kick, Vinatieri is a lock to nail it. So far this year, he’s 8 for 8 in field goals. Buffalo castaway Steve Christie handles the kicking duties for San Diego. His long this year is 36 yards and is 3 for 4 overall on field goals. San Diego has a slight edge in the punting game with Darren Bennett and his coverage team a shade better than Ken Walter’s of New England. The return game is squarely in favor of New England. Electrifying Deion Branch has averaged about 27 yards per kickoff return and Troy Brown is one of the best punt return men in the league. One thing to watch is if Brown is healthy enough to be able to return punts with his hurt knee. San Diego’s top return man, Tamarick Vanover, has been around a few years and is a pretty established special teams standout. He handles both punt and kick return duties, with a 24.3 average on kicks and 5.5 on punts. Advantage Patriots

Intangibles
The Patriots had a scare last week, make no doubt about it. The Kansas City game was a classic trap game where they had beaten a division rival badly the week before in New York. They will be focused here, as they got a wake-up call last week. For San Diego, this is a huge game. They can show they are for real and quiet their detractors. There is much more riding on this game for them. Advantage Chargers

Things are pretty stacked up against San Diego. No one has found an answer for this Patriot offense so far, but the Chargers may be able to slow them down just enough. But can the Chargers even score on offense with Brees’ head spinning from all the different looks Belichick throws at him. My money says hell no. Brady will be his efficient self and Antowain Smith will bang the rock in for a couple of scores. Brees gets picked at least twice. This one will not be pretty. Patriots 28, Chargers 10

Lock of the Week: New Orleans (-7.5) at Detroit
I’m beginning to see a trend here with the Lions on the short end of these “Locks of the Week”. Not that it isn’t without good reason. Hurricane Isidore may have visited the Big Easy this week, but Aaron Brooks will unleash his own fury on the hapless Lions in Motown. Saints 42, Lions 6

Upset Special: Tennessee at Oakland (-7)
The Titans are underdogs in every sense of the word. Up and down the stat sheet, they pale in comparison to the Raiders. Coming off the bye week, Oakland saw this one as another week off, most likely. This smells like a trap.. Eddie George is 100% and the Raiders will be without corner Charles Woodson. A late Joe Nedney field goal lifts the Titans. Titans 27, Raiders 24

Miami (-3) at Kansas City - Another possible trap game right here. Could the Dolphins be overlooking the Chiefs with their big showdown with New England looming next week? Can Kansas City possibly perform as well as they did last week offensively? The answer to both is no. Dolphins 21, Chiefs 16

Chicago at Buffalo (-3) - After playing a full 30 minutes last week, the Bears better not slack off at all against Bledsoe and Company. The Bills play until the final gun and the Bears, well, they just don’t. Bills 34, Bears 24

Tampa Bay (-7) at Cincinnati -Akili Smith. That’s all I have to say. Buccaneers 28, Bengals 0

New York Football Giants (-3) at Arizona - New York’s high powered passing offense plus Arizona’s feeble passing defense equals a blowout. Oh yeah, the Cards can’t stop the run either. Giants 37, Cardinals 13

Dallas at St. Louis (-13.5) - Can this team be that bad? Is there any one problem that defines what has happened here? It’s sad to see a dynasty crumble like this team has. Their quarterback is totally inept, his receivers are not getting open, and the running game has been shut down. All of you who thought I was talking about St. Louis, raise your hands. You guys are sad.
Rams 35, Cowboys 17

Carolina at Green Bay (-7.5) - The wheels have to come off the Panther wagon at some point. This seems like a good place to start. Green Bay is Carolina’s toughest opponent so far. If the Panthers win this one, I’ll pack my stuff and get on the bandwagon. I own too much stuff, though. Packers 30, Panthers 14

New York J-E-T-S at Jacksonville (-3.5) - Coming off two woodshed beatings, things get no easier for the Jets this week. The surprising Jaguars are coming off a bye and are at home. Curtis Martin may not even play this week as he’s banged up and Chad Pennington may get the start. The fall from grace continues for Herm Edwards’ bunch. Jags 28, Jets 7

Houston at Philadelphia (-20) - Texans QB David Carr had to see this point spread and think he was still in college. The Philly defense may put him there this week. Carr hasn’t thrown for more than 100 yards the past two weeks. Throwing into that Eagle secondary, he may not crack 50. Eagles 44, Texans 3

Cleveland at Pittsburgh (-6.5) - How would you like to be Tim Couch this week? “Hey Tim, we’re going to run a spread offense like the ones that have beat Pittsburgh this year. They’ll never expect it.” Right. Kelly Holcomb finishes the game. Steelers 24, Browns 21

Minnesota at Seattle (-3) - If there was ever a remedy for a cold streak, the Seahawks are it. That traffic control agent in front of Moss’ SUV put up more of a fight than the Seahawks will. Vikings 24, Seahawks 9

Denver (-7) at Baltimore (Monday) - Looking at the stats here, it’s going to be one long day for the Ravens faithful. Or will it? The best rushing defense comes into town against the worst rushing offense. The Ravens sport a very good passing defense, though, and Brian Griese is in control of the worst passing offense in the league. Combine that with Denver’s inability to stop the pass, we may have ourselves a ballgame. Broncos 24, Ravens 17

On The Year
Overall: 25-20-1
Game of the Week: 2-1
Lock of the Week: 1-2
Upset Special: 2-1

Want to state your case on what the "Game of the Week" should be each week? Starting with Week Three, we'll be running a poll each week to decide which game deserves the honor. If you'd like to vote in this poll, please click this link to take you to the forum! Be on the lookout for more ways to get involved in future weeks.

---