Battle by the Bay... and NFC Supremacy
November 22, 2002
The predictions made here each week do not represent the views of everyone on FIC and should not be used for gambling purposes.
Some try blind guesses by having their pets pick the games each week based on which treat they decide to choose. Others make themselves out to have bizarre psychic nicknames. Still more throw darts at a board and pick whoever it lands on. And, yes... there are a few actual experts, but I'm not one of them. Kick off every weekend with "The Mutt" as he tests his skills all season long against a few of our correspondents in the race for the FIC Cup.
Official FIC Cup Standings (Last Week in Parentheses)
Tim Noakes 83-70-7 (6-10)
Jeff Brown 77-76-7 (5-11)
The Mutt 71-82-7 (7-9)
Jay Schell 69-84-7 (8-8)
Chris Wang 68-69-7 (10-6)* Missed Week One
Zach McCann 55-71-6 (9-7) * Missed Weeks Nine and Ten
Battle by the Bay... and NFC Supremacy
As the NFL season starts to head into the stretch drive, the two best teams in the NFC will meet this weekend, each looking to get a leg (or two) up on the other in the battle for homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. One of these two former NFC Central rivals will stand alone atop the NFL after this weekend with a 9-2 record. Perhaps more importantly, though, the winner of this game will own the edge in the tiebreaker with the other when all is said and done, essentially giving them a two game lead for the best record in the NFC.
Game of the Week: Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-3)
Tampa Bay Offense vs. Green Bay Defense
Contrary to what so many people thought would happen when Jon Gruden brought his "offensive genius" with him from Oakland in the offseason, the Bucs offense remains pretty pedestrian. Bruising Michael Pittman has accounted for about 750 total yards in the backfield, but has rushed for under 500 on the season. Neither he or fullback Mike Alstott have managed to average 3.5 yards per carry, and the run barely poses a threat in Tampa. Together, Pittman and Alstott leave this team at a dismal 28th in the league on the ground.
Brad Johnson has been effective, but unspectacular throughout most of the season. On the positive side, he's thrown for 14 touchdowns against just 5 interceptions. However, he has thrown for just over 200 yards per game, and the Bucs passing offense ranks a very average 13th in the league. Keyshawn Johnson and Kennan McCardell remain as one of the league's better veteran tandems at wideout, and are both dangerous every time they touch the ball.
This should be a pretty dangerous matchup offensively for the Bucs, as the Packers are strong against the pass and weak against the run. The Pack is very good at getting to the quarterback (4th in the league in sacks) and is second in the league in interceptions to go along with their 9th ranked pass defense, but have struggled against teams that have an effective ground game, and are currently ranked 30th in the league against the run. In order for Tampa Bay to get anything going, they'll need a big game from Pittman and Alstott to take some of the pressure off of Brad Johnson and the passing game. Advantage Packers
Green Bay Offense vs. Tampa Bay Defense
Over the past three seasons since being traded to the Packers from the Seattle Seahawks, Ahman Green has emerged as one of the top five all-purpose feature backs in the league. Barring an injury, Green is on pace for his third consecutive 1,000 yard season and is rushing for over 90 yards per game. He makes good use of his carries, gaining almost four and a half yards each time he touches the ball, and is second on the team in receptions. His backup, rookie Najeh Davenport saw his season end last week with an eye injury, but Green doesn't take a whole lot of plays off. The Packers are ranked 13th in the league on the ground.
How could The Mutt talk about the Pack without discussing this season's leading MVP candidate, Brett Favre? His grit and determination are matched by his physical skills, as he's lit up the league for over 250 yards per game and has a 19/7 touchdown to interception ratio. Donald Driver has had an amazing breakout season at wideout and should break the 1,000 yard barrier for the first time in his career in the next two weeks, while Terry Glenn, Bubba Franks, and, of course, Ahman Green give Favre three more excellent targets. All in all, the Packers have paraded for 2,527 yards through the air so far this season, fifth in the league.
Who could be a better test for this vaunted offense though? The Bucs have the #1 overall defense in the league (#1 vs. the pass, #5 vs. the run) by a gaudy 22 yards a game over the Broncos. So far this season, they've allowed just 252 yards per game, lead the league in interceptions, and are second in the league in sacks! They're fast, hard-hitting, smart, and opportunistic. In short, the Bucs defense will give Favre and Green everything that they can handle and then some. Advantage Bucs
Special Teams
Both Ryan Longwell and Martin Gramatica are among the top kickers in the league. Each are stable from short and long range, though Gramatica's range adds about an extra 5-10 yards over Longwell's. Tom Tupa and Josh Bidwell are both effective punters that have combined to pin their opponents down inside the 20 thirty-four times so far this season. Each averages over 40 yards per kick. Neither team's going to blow anyone away with their coverage or return game, but The Mutt takes Karl Williams and Aaron Stecker all day in this one. Advantage Bucs
Coaching/Intangibles
Mike Sherman was completely unheralded (in fact, even laughed at by some) when the Packers hired him three years ago to replace Ray Rhodes. All he's done since is prove everyone wrong over and over by setting his team up for a second consecutive division title and playoff appearance. Jon Gruden was brought into Tampa Bay to be "the savior" after guiding the Raiders to three very good seasons in his tenure in Oakland. While his offense hasn't exactly lit the world on fire, he continues to produce results, as he has the team poised to move to 9-2 and take a big step towards winning homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Look for the homefield to play a bit of a part in this one, particularly since the Bucs know that they don't want to have to go through Green Bay and the Frozen Tundra of Lambeau to get to the Super Bowl. Advantage Bucs
The Verdict
If the Packers can find ways to make the vaunted Bucs defense go a little nuts, this one could get out of hand. However, The Mutt's gonna take that Tampa defense and go to the bank with this one. Brad Johnson will manage to find a way to score through the air once, and Michael Pittman will break a long one. Outside of that, this will be a tight field position matchup where neither team really gets much going all day. Bucs 17, Packers 9
Lock of the Week: St. Louis (-5.5) at Washington
As if it could get any worse in St. Louis, Marc Bulger is now injured and Martz doesn't have a fallback option if Kurt Warner doesn't look like his old self. Marshall's expected to miss another week or two, and Kurt will have to go through the air to win this one. On the positive side, Danny Wuerffel has been named the Redskins starting QB for the week. Rams 27, Redskins 10
Upset Special: Detroit (+5.5) at Chicago
While the Bears were so good at pulling out those close games last year, it seems that they've been cursed to lose all of them back this year. The Lions played with a lot of heart last week, and Joey Harrington should get the job done this week as he gets to play in a college atmosphere again. Lions 24, Bears 21
And now, some things to ponder while The Mutt's Super Bowl Champs prepare for life A.D. (After Donovan)....
R.D.C.I. - Dayne Cheeseburger Consumption 160, Giants 159
Total Yards By the Eagles this year - 3,793
Total Yards for McNabb - 2,749
McNabb's numbers AFTER breaking his ankle last week: 20/25, 255 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
Minnesota at New England (-7.5) - Was that really the Vikes last week??? Michael Bennett will put up his fifth consecutive 100-yard game on the ground against a suspect Patriots run defense, but will it be enough? Brady should have a field day against a defense that's got more holes in it than The Mutt's socks. Patriots 27, Vikings 24
Tennessee (-2) at Baltimore - Those of you who read the message boards know that The Mutt enjoys quoting himself. Last week, on the Titans: "Whoever wins this game can officially claim they're for real." The Titans came through, and Baltimore is nothing without Ray Lewis. Titans 27, Ravens 16
Atlanta (-3.5) at Carolina - Michael Vick could outscore the punchless Panthers with both hands and one leg tied behind his back. The Falcons will take a step forward as they look at their soft remaining schedule and start to think playoffs. Falcons 24, Panthers 9
Jacksonville (-2.5) at Dallas - Whoddathunkit? These two teams got to play a combined three games against expansion Houston and won just one of them.... by three points. The Jags have somehow managed to keep Fred Taylor healthy for ten weeks so far this season. Despite their identity crisis, the Jags should have no problem with the Cowgirls. Jags 23, Cowgirls 10
San Diego at Miami (-3) - Ray Lucas actually showed up last week, but the Chargers continue to show The Mutt that his 9-7 prediction for them was underestimating them a bit. After this, the Bolts have a huge stretch within the AFC West, and they have to feed on the mediocre, overrated Mammals this weekend to have a shot at the playoffs. Chargers 24, Dolphins 17
Cleveland at New Orleans (-6) - While Tim Couch has done an admirable job leading the Browns back to .500, there's a big difference between beating up on their in-state rivals and heading into the Big Easy. Brooks and the Saints are happy to be done with cousin Mike and should roll from here on out. Saints 27, Browns 17
Buffalo at New York Jets (-3) - Whoever loses this can start deciding whose house they're all going to head on over to when they're watching the playoffs. Chad Morton sure did make this exciting the first time these two teams met. Chad Pennington will make it exciting this time. Jets 34, Bills 28
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-11) - Steelers leading sack man Joey Porter will be credited with three sacks this weekend, as he'll be the first man to get to Bungles QB Jon Kitna who trips over his untied shoelace. Kitna will still find time to hit a Steelers DB right between the numbers with a touchdown pass... going the other way. Steelers 31, Bungles 13
Kansas City (-3.5) at Seattle - Remember when Seahawks RB Shaun Alexander ran for over 250 yards against the Raiders last year? Expect Priest Holmes to have a shot at 300 this weekend. Chiefs 41, Seahawks 24
Oakland (-8) at Arizona - The Raiders look like they're back. After annihilating two of the AFC favorites in the past two weeks, Gannon and Co. should have a field day against a Cardinals secondary that was torched for four scores by a guy with a broken ankle. Raiders 34, Cardinals 17
New York Giants (-5.5) at Houston - Maybe Fassel doesn't belong in a museum after all. The Giants have gone 3-0 and actually almost scored over 20 in every game since Jim Fassel decided that he was taking over the play-calling. As if the NFC East didn't provide a soft enough schedule, the Giants now get to see expansion Houston come calling. Giants 23, Texans 17
Indianapolis at Denver (-6) - Despite not showing up for three quarters last week, the Dolts were able to handle a pathetic Cowgirl squad in Dallas. While this game looks a bit dangerous for the Broncos, Steve Buerlein is as good a backup QB as anyone could hope for, and should pull them through this week in a close one. Broncos 27, Colts 24
Philadelphia at San Francisco (-7) - Life after Donovan sure doesn't get any easier. Jose Cortez will miss a field goal that would let the Niners cover, but his bad boot won't make them lose another one. Jeff Chandler will be greeted to a standing ovation as he steps onto the field and nails down the game-winner with three seconds to play. Niners 23, Eagles 20
Posted by James Meyerriecks: Nov 22 at 2:56 PM
Fantasy Football 
Was there a vote this week for GOW?
Well I'm glad last week was awful, matbe I can do a little better this week.
Green Bay +3
St. Louis -5.5
Detroit +5.5
Minnesota +7.5
Tennessee -2
Atlanta -3.5
Jacksonville -2.5
San Diego +3
Cleveland +6
Buffalo +3
Cinncinatti +11
Kansas City -3.5
Oakland -8
New York Giants -5.5
Indianapolis +6
San Francisco -7
Hi everyone....I picked up McNabb in every league where he was dropped. Also, Bulger is healthy and could very well possibly come in and play for the Rams this week. Warner did not look good at all last week and has had "bad" practices. Also, it is good to hear that Maddox may be back 2 weeks from now. Anyway, I think McNabb is going to be back sooner than everyone realizes. He will be available, at the latest, when fantasy playoffs arrive.
Here are my picks:
Green Bay
Washington
Chicago
New England
Tennessee
Atlanta
Jacksonville
San Diego
Cleveland
New York Jets
Cincinnati
Seattle
Oakland (lock of the week)
New York Football Giants
Indianapolis (upset of the week)
San Francisco
There was no poll this week.... Sorry about that. I just forgot and realized that I'd forgotten when I was writing my column on Wednesday night. The poll for next week's games will be up tonight or tomorrow.
I'm somehow pretty sure that the Game of the Week is what would have been selected, seeing as how Green Bay and Tampa Bay are tied for the league's best record, but if it wasn't what would have been selected by the voters, I apologize.
Green Bay
St. Louis
Detroit
Minnesota
Tennessee
Atlanta
Jacksonville
San Diego
Cleveland
NYJ
Cincinnati
Kansas City
Oakland
NYG
Indianapolis
San Francisco
7-8 going into Monday night. However, I got my lock and my upset of the week correct... :)
BTW, I cannot believe that the NFL is going to review that hit made by Sapp last night. It was a clean hit and the only reason why it is being reviewed is because Mike Sherman has a big mouth and is a sore loser.
Barry, this isn't the message board, so I really don't want to make this too lengthy, but I can't agree with you at all. Sapp's hit was a cheap shot. Maybe the whistle never blew, but Clifton was nowhere near the play. Sapp left his feet to make the hit on the unsuspecting Clifton. You think he was trying to throw a block, or take him out of the game? If this had happened to Brett Favre, Sapp would have gotten a huge fine and/or suspension. Since it's "just" an O-lineman, the NFL is a bit more lenient. Bull. Sapp's antics after the play is what set Sherman off. You can argue the play was legal, but Mike Sherman has every right to get in Sapp's face about his actions afterwards while Clifton was motionless on the ground. I lost a lot of respect for Warren Sapp yesterday, and so did a lot of NFL fans.
I side with Mike on the hit.... It was totally away from the play. While it may have been legal, there's no reason for Warren Sapp to jump up and down doing what looked like a sack dance after throwing a potentially career threatening hit on a player that had absolutely nothing to do with the play.
As for the week, I somehow ended up at .500, thanks to my call that the Eagles would cover the 7 point spread against them on Monday night. As usual, my lock of the week went down in flames, though I think I was pretty much right on with the game of the week.
I might have to take a closer look at this play...Sapp really left his feet to throw the block? I did not notice this but if he did then Sapp should have been fined. However, the question according to league rules is this: Are you allowed to leave your feet as long as you are not going for someone's head or knees? I think that the answer is yes. Also, Clifton was in the play because he was in the general area of Jackson who just made a pick off of Favre. He was definitely in the area of the play.
I still think that Sherman is a sore loser and this impression that I have about him has been there for quite some time. He is a coach and should know better than to get into it with a player after the game. I didn't see any of the Packers players going after Sapp immediately after the Clifton hit. I do understand that Sapp was also celebrating the hit while Clifton was down as well and should have been penalized 15 yards for misconduct.
Just curious...who won out of everyone for this past week (I know no one had SF to lose!!??)?
On the Week:
The Mutt 8-8
Chris Wang 8-8
Jeff Brown 8-8
Tim Noakes 7-9
Zach McCann 6-10
Technically speaking, both The Mutt and Chris Wang won the Monday Night Game (I predict scores.... others just send me who will win based on the spread). My prediction was that the Niners would win, but not cover. Technically, I was wayyyyyy off of the 38-17 blowout for the Eagles, but a W's a W, and I guess I'll have to take it ;)